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Campaign signs posted outside the early voting site at The Center of Deltona in favor of and opposed to Amendment 4 on the Florida ballot. The amendment failed in the Sunshine State.
Hard Numbers: Most US abortion amendments pass, Butter bandits strike again, Trump’s victory spooks Canadian exporters, Trump gambles pay off
1,200: Smooth like butter, these criminals were. Police in Ontario are looking for two men who made off with $1,200 worth of the stuff from a grocery store in Brantford. As it happens, more than half a dozen butter capers have occurred over the past year, leading authorities to suspect that the conspiracy could be more widely spread than they initially suspected.
1.77: Donald Trump’s victory gave a boost to most stock markets around the world, as investors expect more market-friendly policy from the world’s largest economy. But one big exception was the stocks of Canadian natural resources producers that saw their market caps dip by 1.77% over the course of the day, owing to fears that the tariffs that Trump has promised could hurt the country’s exports.
450 million: A lot of people gambled on a Trump win this year, many of them literally. Online gambling sites now have about $450 million worth of payouts for people who placed actual wagers on his ability to come back to the White House. A single investor in Paris, known as the “Polymarket whale” placed at least $40 million on Trump, and now stands to take a payout double that amount.
Students at Martin Van Buren High School in Queens
Hard Numbers: Segregation is back, Thai activist dies in jail, French “Fly” freed, New US arms sale to Israel
19.8: Over the past three decades, the share of US public schools where 90% of the students are non-white has nearly tripled to 19.8%, according to a UCLA report. Experts say the rise of charter schools and expansion of school choice is partly to blame for this de facto segregation. The data, crunched by the UCLA Civil Rights Project, come on the eve of the 70th anniversary of the landmark Brown vs. Boardof Education case in which the US Supreme Court outlawed racial segregation at schools.
110: A young Thai activist jailed for demanding reform of the country’s uncriticizable monarchy has died after a 110-day hunger strike. Twenty-eight year old Netiporn “Bung” Sanesangkhom had been jailed under Thailand’s severe lèse-majesté laws after asking people’s opinion of the monarchy in public spaces in 2022.
2: A manhunt is underway in France after two masked gunmen ambushed a prison van and freed a notorious drug dealer nicknamed “The Fly.” The incident is the latest in a trend of rising narco-related crime in Europe, as authorities seize record volumes of cocaine entering the EU while rival gangs fight for turf and clientele. Of course, when it comes to jailbreaks, the cinema-obsessed French gangster Rédoine Faïd remains the master of the craft.
1 billion: The Biden administration reportedly told lawmakers it’s moving forward with a new sale of roughly $1 billion worth of arms to Israel, including tactical vehicles and ammunition. This news comes as the administration continues to butt heads with Israel over the Rafah operation, and just days after President Joe Biden put a hold on a shipment of bombs to the Jewish state as concerns rise over the mounting death toll amid the war with Hamas in Gaza.
FILE PHOTO: Parts of a ghost gun kit are on display at an event held by U.S. President Joe Biden to announce measures to fight ghost gun crime, at the White House in Washington U.S., April 11, 2022.
The Supreme Court takes aim at “ghost guns”
The US Supreme Court agreed Monday to rule on a challenge to the Biden administration’s efforts to crack down on untraceable “ghost guns.”
What are “ghost guns”? Basically, privately manufactured kits that give customers all the individual parts they need to build a firearm themselves, like a deadly version of IKEA.
Before the Biden administration’s new regulations, customers did not need to pass background checks to buy these kits, and law enforcement struggled to trace the guns when they were used in crimes. Unsurprisingly, a lot of criminals bought these kits. In 2020, law enforcement agencies recovered 19,344 ghost guns from crime scenes, up from just 1,758 in 2016.
What’s the argument? The White House’s regulations don’t ban the sale of gun kits but require manufacturers to put serial numbers on components and conduct background checks. Manufacturers and Second Amendment activists say the government is overstepping its powers in regulating the kits like actual firearms.
What’s the outlook? The court has a 6-3 conservative majority that generally favors expansive Second Amendment rights. That said, two conservatives – Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett – joined the liberals to let the White House allow the regulations to take effect temporarily last August. Their votes will be key, with a decision expected after the November election.FILE PHOTO: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (left), President of Mexico, and Justin Trudeau (right), Prime Minister of Canada, are delivering a message to the media at the National Palace in Mexico City,on January 10, 2023, on the occasion of their meeting with Joe Biden, President of the United States, at the 10th North American Leaders' Summit, where they are discussing migration, economic and drug trafficking issues.
Will Trudeau bring back visas for Mexican visitors?
Justin Trudeausaid last week that Canada is in talks with Mexico to try to find ways to cut down on the number of asylum-seekers flying into Canada with the help of organized criminal groups.
Trudeau is under pressure from the Conservatives, and the Americans to reinstate a visa requirement on Mexican travelers, which his government lifted in 2016. The government said last month it is considering doing so.
The Biden administration would also like the visas to return because the number of migrants crossing the northern border has spiked in the past year — 2,200 interceptions in 2023, up 240% from 2022. Most of the crossings are made in the lightly patrolled areas of upstate New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont.
The route via Canada to the US is appealing to Mexicans and other Latin Americans who face detention and deportation at the more heavily patrolled southern border. A network of human smugglers has sprung up to facilitate the crossings, but would-be migrants face danger in the cold northern woods.
The Liberal government seems to be signaling that it’s working with Mexico rather than moving immediately to require Mexican visitors to apply for visas, which would be a setback for the trade and diplomatic relationship.
Soldiers keep watch in the militarized Litoral prison, part of the measures taken by Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa to crackdown on gangs, during a media tour in Guayaquil, Ecuador, Feb. 9, 2024.
Ecuador to vote on emergency measures amid spiraling violence
Ecuadorians will get their say on a slew of emergency measures meant to combat skyrocketing murders in their country — but they’ll have to wait more than two months.
A court has set April 21 as the date for a referendum on expanding the army’s powers, tightening control over guns and prisons, and raising penalties for trafficking.
President Daniel Noboa, the scion of a banana export dynasty who was elected last November, called for the vote as he battles an unprecedented surge of violence in the once-peaceful country. The cause? Record global demand for cocaine is driving a war among drug cartels for control over Ecuador’s ports.
Last year Ecuador’s homicide rate surpassed 40 per 100,000 inhabitants, more than quadruple the mark in 2020. In recent months, several prominent politicians, including a presidential candidate, have been gunned down. In January, armed men stormed a live television broadcast.
Strongman, but by the book: Noboa’s consultative approach contrasts with the authoritarian (and so far successful) tack of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele. But it’s a gamble: If civil liberties concerns cause Ecuadorans to vote “no” on some questions, Noboa’s hands could be tied (at least partly) while the violence rages.
Car thieves hit the gas. Drivers foot the bill.
Auto thefts, including carjackings, are up in the United States and Canada. Politicians are noticing – and so are insurance companies. Last week, Ottawa went as far as to convene a national summit dedicated to the problem, and the criminal trend has grabbed headlines in both countries, tracking the many locations where vehicles end up, from Malta to Mexico to Ghana.
The jump in stolen vehicles on both sides of the border has some concerned about a return to the bad old days. In 1991, there were 659 car thefts for every 100,000 people in the US. In 2022, there were 283 – much lower than in the 90s but the most since 2008 and an increase of 10% from 2021. More than a million vehicles were pinched, and Kias and Hyundais have been particularly hard hit, with a leap of 1,000% since 2020.
Canadian data paints a similar picture, with a decline in thefts throughout the early 2000s followed by a recent increase. In 2022, over 105,000 vehicles were stolen. While data is still coming in, 2023 looks to be just as bad or worse.
As cars go missing, and bandits make off like, well, bandits, drivers are set to pay for it. Politicians might end up paying, too, if dissatisfied voters turn their frustrations on the leaders. And while there are plenty of solutions to the problem, it won’t be solved overnight or by stump speeches calling for ‘law and order’.
Who’s responsible? Organized crime is largely to blame for the rise in thefts. Vehicles are stolen and transported overseas to the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Eastern Europe through major ports such as Vancouver, Montreal, Halifax, and Newark. Some are driven across the US-Mexico border. Proceeds from stolen vehicles are used to fund gang and cartel operations and contribute to, among other things, human trafficking, drug dealing, and the illicit arms trade.
Why is it happening? As always, good, old-fashioned supply and demand is a key cause, particularly after the pandemic strained supply chains and the value of vehicles and auto parts shot up.
According to one expert, lax policing and a “mission accomplished” attitude adopted by police and politicians in the wake of previously declining theft rates also play a role in the increase, especially in Canada. Poor monitoring and policing of ports are also to blame.
Stolen vehicles are a significant problem on both sides of the border, but one country stands out as an extra-convenient playground for thieves. As Michael Rothe, president and CEO of the Canadian Finance and Leasing Association told Maclean’s, in recent years, “Canada in general became very much a high-reward, low-risk environment, particularly compared to the United States.”
Certain vehicles are also getting easier to steal. Last year, a handful of American cities sued Kia and Hyundai over the issue. The companies paid hundreds of millions in California after a viral TikTok trend showed users how easy it was to steal the cars. Manufacturers cutting corners has been a dream for gangsters and a nightmare for drivers as thieves exploit vulnerabilities in vehicles that are increasingly reliant on high-tech. And police rarely find the thieves – 90% of auto theft cases go unsolved in the US.
Who’s paying the price? Insurance rates in the US and Canada are up and may go higher still in 2024. The US saw a 26% increase over last year thanks to, among other factors, inflation and thefts. Drivers of commonly stolen cars in Canada have seen premiums rise between 25 and a whopping 50% in the last two years. A recent survey found more than 80% of Canadians are concerned about auto theft.
What can be done? The issue will likely draw more than just political attention, says Graeme Thompson, senior analyst of global macro‑geopolitics at Eurasia Group.
“I think it will put real pressure on governments to deal with the issue,” he says, noting that action will likely take a tough-on-crime approach, “if for no other reason than it’s easier to promise and communicate tougher criminal justice policies than something like port reform or new regulations for auto manufacturers, which are both downstream from the problem of people’s cars being stolen from their driveways.”
The issue has already brought about a response. In Canada, Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre is promising to bring in tougher penalties for car thieves. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seems open to charting a similar course. In the US, some states are on the same wavelength, including Tennessee, where candidates are going all-in on the tough-on-crime bandwagon.
Trudeau is also set to spend just under $30 million on the issue, earmarking the cash for the country’s border service agency and both domestic and international cooperation aimed at identifying and tracking down thieves. Ontario – a hotbed for theft – is dedicating its own cash, too, for police projects.
Cities and states in the US are adopting similar law-enforcement and information-sharing programs, including efforts by New York Gov. Kathy Hochul,New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, and New York City Mayor Eric Adams.
Drivers, meanwhile, are being advised to take matters into their own hands to help keep their vehicles safe – advice which only goes so far. People hit hard by higher insurance rates can shop around for alternative providers or even go so far as to avoid the most commonly stolen vehicles, for which insurers sometimes charge a premium.
Of course, we can’t divorce any policy action on these files from the electoral considerations that politicians on both sides of the border are watching. President Joe Biden and the Democrats are headed for an election in November while Trudeau and his Liberals, way down in the polls, are due for one by fall 2025. Auto theft may keep their attention.
As Thompson points out, “the perception of rising crime is becoming a real drag on both the Liberals in Canada and the Democrats in the US, and opposition parties are positioning themselves as best to handle the problem.”
In that regard, the opposition sides may have an advantage in both countries. While auto theft might not dominate voters’s minds, as Thompson notes, “if combined with a broader public concern over law and order, it would likely benefit the Tories and the Republicans.” So, don’t expect an end to the issue anytime soon – either thefts themselves or the political hand-wringing.
El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele, who is running for reelection, greets people, on the day of the presidential and parliamentary elections in San Salvador, El Salvador, February 4, 2024.
Crime fighter cruises to victory in El Salvador
Salvadorans voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to reelect President Nayib Bukele, the self-styled “world’s coolest dictator” – even though the constitution says he can’t serve a second term. Provisional results show he won 83% of the vote.
Bukele came to power five years ago promising to clean up rampant crime and corruption that had turned El Salvador into a lawless state. Today, 75,000 people, or 1.7% of the country’s adult population, are in jail, which is the highest incarceration rate in the world.
Despite criticism for his authoritarian methods, and accusations that his government colludes with the very gangs he vowed to stamp out, Bukele remains wildly popular. Pre-election polls had his main rivals receiving barely 12% of the vote between them.
Bukele's second term faces challenges, however, as poverty remains high and the IMF describes the country’s fiscal situation as "fragile." Since 2019, extreme poverty has doubled and almost half the population is food insecure. Bukele’s economic reforms have been unorthodox: In 2021, the government declared Bitcoin legal tender, attracting attention but also criticism for its volatility. Today, Bukele says El Salvador’s investments in the cryptocurrency are in the black, but it remains to be seen if he has as much success tackling poverty as he did crime.
Britain's King Charles and the President of Kenya, Dr William Ruto
Hard Numbers: Charles III visits Kenya, deadly sectarian violence in India, US murders plunge, antisemitic mob arrests in Russia
1: King Charles III is set to launch his first state visit to an African country — and his very first to a Commonwealth nation — since becoming Britain’s monarch in May. On Tuesday, he and Camilla will touch down in Nairobi, Kenya, where he is expected to face pressure to address the historic brutality of British colonial rule.
3: Explosions at an event on Sunday held by Jehovah’s Witnesses in Kerala, India, killed three and injured scores. Authorities are investigating and say a man has been arrested after posting a video in which he claimed responsibility. India has seen an uptick in Hindu vs. Muslim clashes in recent years, and this incident comes on the heels of an attack on a Protestant church in New Delhi in August.
6: How’s this for a Halloween treat? Last year’s murder rate in the United States, according to the FBI’s annual national crime report, fell 6%, and one analyst says the national homicide rate has plummeted up to 12% so far this year.
60: After an antisemitic mob stormed an airport in Dagestan, Russia, on Sunday — the Kremlin blamed Ukraine and the West for prompting the violence with “outside interference” — police say they have arrested 60 people. Rioters searched the airport for passengers from a flight that arrived that day from Tel Aviv, forcing many to hide before being evacuated by helicopter.