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People wait in line to buy bread before Rafael's arrival in Havana, Cuba, on Nov. 5, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Cuba battens down the hatches, Mexico’s judicial reform stands, Iran’s currency hits record low, Tsk tsk Pyongyang, Reckless raccoon
8: On Tuesday, Mexico’s Supreme Court dismissed a proposal to narrow the scope of a controversial reform plan that would require all judges in the country to stand for election. Seven of the 11 justices voted to limit the election requirement to Supreme Court justices, buteight votes were needed to water down the reform.
703,000: On Wednesday, Iran’s currency fell to an all-time low as news of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election hit markets. The rial traded at703,000 to the dollar before a slight recovery later in the day.
2/3: Ten of the 15 current UN Security Council members condemned North Korea’s recent launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile and called on Pyongyang to return to negotiations. Ecuador, France, Japan, Malta, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom supported a US statement of condemnation. Russia, China, Algeria, Mozambique, and Guyana refused.
8 billion: At the Marine Air Terminal at New York’s LaGuardia airport, a raccoon fell through the ceiling at a departure gate earlier this week, causing chaos. This smaller terminal was not part of the infamously ramshackle airport’s recent$8 billion upgrade.
A woman sitting at her house, looks on as Cuba suffers a third major setback in restoring power to the island, with millions still without electrical service, in Havana, Cuba, October 20, 2024.
Will Cuba’s government collapse with its grid?
Millions of Cubans remain in the dark amid a worsening power crisis. The collapse first hit Cuba’s western provinces, including the capital of Havana, on Friday, with no clear timeline for restoration. While the Antonio Guiteras power plant was brought back online over the weekend, its 500-megawatt output falls far short of the 3 gigawatts the island needs, and its output has dropped to 370 megawatts.
Residents are cooking on open fires, water supplies are threatened, bread is running out, and people are running out of patience – which led to protests in Marianao and Cuatro Caminos on Saturday.
Power cuts and food rationing prompted protests earlier this year, and while theregime remained in charge, this latest crisis is the worst since Hurricane Ian damaged Cuba’s power grid in 2022. President Miguel Díaz-Canelblames the US embargo, which has left Cuba unable to maintain electric plants due to a lack of foreign reserves to pay for parts. Cuts in subsidized oil imports from Venezuela also made it impossible to operate facilities due to lack of fuel, leaving some households without power for eight hours a day this year.
The crisis has been compounded by Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall on Sunday with winds of up to 85 mph and 5 to 15 inches of rain. We’ll be watching how the regime and public anger weather the storm.Canadian navy patrol boat HMCS Margaret Brooke passes by Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine Kazan and frigate Admiral Gorshkov, as it enters Havana’s bay, Cuba, June 14, 2024.
Our men in Havana
Even a summer trip to Cuba is fodder for controversy in Canada these days. This week, a Canadian warship paid a controversial visit to the port of Havana – docking near Russian warships that were also on a high-profile visit to the Cuban capital.
Defense Minister Bill Blair said there was nothing special about the naval drop-in, which was meant to demonstrate Ottawa’s commitment to freedom of navigation in the Western Hemisphere. It was, he said, announced by the Canadian Armed Forces “in advance.”
Canada’s Joint Operations Command had a slightly different gloss on it, saying the port visit was to recognize “the long-standing bilateral relationship between Canada and Cuba.”
Ottawa has kept up strong ties with Cuba over the years, in stark contrast to the US, which has maintained a crippling embargo against the Communist regime there for more than six decades.
But Canada’s opposition seized on the naval visit to criticize the Trudeau government, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievrecalling the apparent challenge to Russia “reckless, radical, and dangerous.” Conservative foreign affairs spokesman Michael Chong said it was a bad look to “‘celebrate’ relations with a communist dictatorship.”
FILE PHOTO: An image of Cuba's former President Raul Castro and Cuba's President and First Secretary of the Communist Party Miguel Diaz-Canel is seen beside a Turkish powership, in Havana, Cuba, April 17, 2023.
Cubans cry for electricity and food in rare protests
Extended blackouts and food scarcity drove Cubans into the streets of Santiago, the Caribbean country’s second-largest city, on Monday, in rare and risky protests. President Miguel Díaz-Canel blamed the US trade embargo for shortages and warned that American “terrorists” were fomenting dissent.
Cuba depends heavily on its allies, Russia and Venezuela, for food and fuel, but the island’s rumbling economic crisis means each peso fails to go as far as it once did. The government raised prices on fuel by over 400% at the start of March as part of an effort to stabilize the economy and control spiraling inflation, which officially topped 30% (though the real rate is likely higher).
Havana is now receiving aid from the World Food Programme for the first time, after requesting help in a rare acknowledgment that the country can’t feed itself. Now, blackouts of up to 18 hours a day mean that ordinary folks can’t refrigerate what food they do have, and instead watch it spoil in tropical weather. Over 400,000 people have fled to the US in the two and a half years since the last major economic protests.
We’re watching for signs of unrest spreading to other cities, and for how hard Havana cracks down on dissent.
GZERO Wrapped 2023
‘Tis the Spotify Wrapped season! (Or Apple Music replay season, for those of us out of step with the cultural zeitgeist). In the spirit of everyone sharing their most-played tracks of the year, the GZERO team decided to look back at some of our top-viewed articles of 2023. You’ll never guess who wrote our top pick …
Plus, check out GZERO’s totally real and definitely not photoshopped 2023 Spotify Wrapped playlists from some of your favorite politicians.
#5 What should Israel do next?, by Ian Bremmer, October 2023
Hamas’ surprise Oct. 7 attack – and Israel’s subsequent offensive in Gaza – was a giant inflection point for global politics this year, so there’s no surprise that our audience looked to Ian Bremmer for emotion-free analysis amid a trove of disinformation about the war. TL;DR: Ian says Israel has the right to defend itself from attacks on its civilians, but perpetuating a humanitarian catastrophe for the world to see will reduce its moral legitimacy and damage its international standing.
#4 Wagner and Russia’s next moves, by Tasha Kheiriddin, August 2023
This summer (feels like a lifetime ago), Vladimir Putin faced his biggest challenge to date and survived an almost coup. Increasing tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defense and the paramilitary Wagner Group came to a head on June 23, when Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and his troops marched toward Moscow. The rebels ultimately turned around before reaching the Kremlin, but Putin couldn’t let this level of public dissent go unpunished. Prigozhin died in a mysterious plane crash two months later, leaving many to question the future of the Wagner Group in Russia and around the world.
#3 Canada caught up in US-China maritime tensions, by Carlos Santamaria, June 2023
With so much going on in the headlines, disputed waters in the South China Sea might not be at the top of many people’s reading lists, but it was for our readers. In June, China sailed a warship very close to a US destroyer and Canadian frigate (which was legally in the area, according to the United Nations) in the Taiwan Strait. Although a somewhat benign incident, it’s important to remember: More intimidation leads to more risk of miscalculation … that could trigger armed conflict.
#2 Cuba tells Russia to back off, by Willis Sparks, September 2023
A story that went a little under the radar this year (but shouldn’t have): Cuba uncovered a human trafficking ring that sought to coerce Cubans to join the war effort in Ukraine. It wasn’t too surprising that Russia was looking for more troops: Putin enlisted citizens from neighboring countries and even recruited prisoners to fight in the war in exchange for their freedom. What was surprising: Cuba’s willingness to publicly release a statement speaking out against its longtime ally, Russia.
#1 The Dollar is Dead, Long Live the Dollar, by Ian Bremmer, April 2023
Economists, analysts, crypto bros, and my overly informed uncle at Thanksgiving dinner have all been guilty of getting swept up in hysteria about the end of US dollar dominance in the global economy. The fear is not unfounded, as countries from time to time discuss diversifying away from the US dollar, and its share in foreign exchange reserves has indeed declined in recent years. But GZERO’s founder and President Ian Bremmer reminded us … the share is still nearly twice that of the euro, yen, pound, and yuan combined. In short: Everyone needs to relax. The dollar is safe … because you can't replace something with nothing.Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov walks with Cuba's Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez during a meeting in Havana, Cuba, April 20, 2023
Cuba tells Russia to back off
Russia needs soldiers, and it hasn’t been picky about where it gets them. That’s the backdrop for an extraordinary announcement this week from Cuba’s foreign ministry that Cubans, some from the island and others living in Russia, have been coerced into fighting in Ukraine.
Cuban authorities say they are working to neutralize and dismantle “a human trafficking network that operates from Russia to incorporate Cuban citizens living there, and even some from Cuba, into … war operations in Ukraine.”
Given Russia’s troop shortages, Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to announce a larger-scale draft at home, efforts to enlist citizens of neighboring countries, and Russia’s willingness to recruit Russian prison inmates to fight for their own freedom, this story isn’t that surprising.
But it is startling that Cuba, a longtime Russian ally, is loudly broadcasting its complaints to the world.
Yes, Cuba is far more financially dependent on China these days than on Russia. But it’s still remarkable to hear Cuban officials say publicly that, “Cuba is not part of the war in Ukraine. It is acting and will act vigorously against whoever, from the national territory, participates in any form of human trafficking for the purposes of recruitment of mercenarism ...”
No comment yet from Moscow.
Hunter Biden's crimes won't impact 2024 election
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Will Hunter Biden's tax crimes impact Joe Biden's reelection in 2024?
No, I don't think it will, but certainly it is impacting the continued erosion of US democratic institutions. I mean, this will be used by the GOP to say that, "There's differential treatment between the Biden crime family and the Trump crime family." My personal belief is that these are not equivalent, and I'll be talking about that later in the week. But what that means is the DOJ and the FBI are going to be seen as increasingly politicized as organizations. That's really unfortunate for the US, but it doesn't have much impact on 2024.
How will the EU's AI Act look in practice?
This is an effort by the regulatory superpower, the EU, which doesn't have a lot of big tech companies, and it doesn't have a lot of heavy security or military industrial complex, but it does have technocrats in Brussels, and Margrethe Vestager in particular in charge of competition, riding herd on this, wants to make sure that the EU is the one that gets to set the rules. And they are working really hard on the Americans in the transatlantic conversations with their own Member States to see that it is not going to be a hub and spoke model where individual departments get to regulate, but instead where the EU as a whole sets the rules. Having said that, this is early days and nothing is going to be actually rolled out for a year or two, minimum, absolute minimum, which means this is still a space driven by the tech companies.
Finally, how will the US respond to a possible China-Cuba military training facility?
Well, they won't like it, and maybe they'll try to disrupt it, though they already have all sorts of sanctions on Cuba. So, it's not like you can do much to the Cubans economically. And if the Cubans as a sovereign country want to do business with the Chinese, that includes military engagement, yeah, they're not a democracy, so it doesn't represent the interests of the people, but neither is the UAE or Qatar or Saudi Arabia, and the Americans have bases there. And also, keep in mind, US military capabilities and surveillance on China, a hell of a lot greater in China's backyard than China's abilities on the United States. At the end of the day, it's kind of open competition and the Americans are going to have to compete harder and continue to be stronger. And the CHIPS Act has done that. Maybe we'll see more of that in other areas, too.
The Graphic Truth: How does El Salvador's prison rate stack up?
El Salvador made headlines in recent days after President Nayib Bukele released photos of gang members being corralled into the country’s new mega-prison – a sprawling complex that will eventually hold 40,000 inmates. It’s the latest development in Bukele’s massive – and very popular – crackdown on gangs, in which Salvadoran authorities have locked up almost 2% of the adult population. (Never mind that US officials have recently accused Bukele of colluding with the very gangs he says he’s trying to stamp out!) El Salvador now has the highest prison rate per 100,000 people in the world – but how does that compare globally? Here we take a look at the countries with the highest official prison rates.