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Colombia, Acandi, 2021-10-29. Haitian migrants trek through the Darien Gap towards the border with Panama. Photograph by Yader Guzman / Hans Lucas Colombie, Acandi, 2021-10-29. Des migrants haitiens traversent le Darien Gap en direction de la frontiere avec le Panama.
Panama pledges to mind the gap
Newly inaugurated Panamanian President José Raúl Mulinopledged this week to stop illegal migration through the Darién Gap, a harrowing swath of jungle along his country’s border with Colombia.
Last year, more than half a million people crossed the Darién headed northward through Central America to the US southern border.
Until now, Panama has used a “Controlled Flow” strategy, helping migrants pass through rather than allowing them to linger in the country. Mulino now wants to stop the flow altogether as part of a new agreement with the US, which will pay to send home migrants caught in the Darién.
The White House, of course, is desperate to limit migration flows – the southern border crisis is one of President Joe Biden’s biggest liabilities as he seeks reelection this fall.
But experts are skeptical of the new approach. “It’s not as easy as ‘let’s control a couple of migration routes,’” says Diego Chaves-González, an expert at the Migration Policy Institute in Washington. The Colombian side of the border is controlled by powerful drug cartels; on the Panamanian side, Indigenous groups hold sway.
Trying to shut down known routes, he says, would simply drive migrants and traffickers to create alternative, more clandestine ones. The result would be a game of whack-a-mole that wrecks the “controlled flow” strategy and could lead to more migrants staying in Panama – precisely the opposite of what Mulino wants.
Migrants trek through the Darien Gap towards the border with Panama.
Sexual assault spikes in the Darién Gap
Crossing the remote, dense jungle is dangerous enough, but now the migrants face a worrying uptick in sexual assaults against women and children. Médecins Sans Frontières has documented nearly 400 sexual assaults there this year, as armed gangs exploit the record number of migrants crossing the jungle. Due to the stigma around sexual assault, fear of perpetrators, and concern that reporting will delay the journey north, the real number is likely far higher. Most of the violence is occurring on the jungle’s Panama side, which lacks the drug cartel that acts as a police force on Colombia’s side of the border.
In August, communication between Panama and Colombia fell apart after they failed to reach a deal to regulate their border. Talks have not resumed, with both countries pointing the finger at the other to take the lead. Yesterday, the US Department of Homeland Security announced it would send a team to Panama, but solely for training purposes. With no sign of a drop in migration, the fear is that the perils facing migrants are becoming normalized as governments fail to address the crisis.Fmr. U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks on the day of his court appearance in New York after being indicted by a Manhattan grand jury. Photo taken in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S., April 4, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Trump leads early, NPR & PBS quit Twitter, stopgap for Darien, global warming juices baseballs
49.3: FiveThirtyEight launched its national polling averages for the 2024 Republican presidential race this week, and Donald Trump leads the pack with 49.3% support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails well behind with 26.2%, while fmr. VP Mike Pence and fmr. UN ambassador Nikki Haley are at 5.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Research finds that national polls done a year ahead of the election can reasonably predict the nominee.
2: NPR will stop posting on Twitter, becoming the first major outlet to ditch the bluebird since the platform began labeling news orgs that receive government funding as “state-affiliated media.” That designation is normally applied to outlets in autocratic countries that allow no editorial independence. Twitter CEO Elon Musk recently told the BBC (another “state-affiliated” media outlet) that he may change the label to “publicly funded.” PBS followed NPR's lead on Wednesday, so two major US media outlets have now said "bye-bye birdie."
88,000: The US, Panama, and Colombia are launching a two-month campaign to stem the northward flow of migrants across the perilous Darien Gap, which spans the Colombian-Panamanian border. Since January, more than 88,000 people have braved the crossing, over six times the number from the same period last year.
1: Did the Sports Almanac account for this? A recent study analyzing the past six decades of baseball and temperature data finds that thinner air from global warming accounted for 1% of home runs from 2010-2019. The number is expected to jump to 10% by 2100 – though the data is inconclusive on whether this can help the Mets.
A parade participant in a Winnie the Pooh costume waves a Chinese flag before the Lunar New Year parade in the Chinatown neighborhood of New York, U.S., February 12, 2023.
Hard Numbers: HK cancels Winnie the Pooh, French torch Bordeaux town hall, Indigenous voice for Oz, Darién Gap crossings soar, CAR hearts China/Russia
0: That's how many Hong Kongers can watch the in-theaters-only slasher film “Winnie the Pooh: Blood and Honey,” after the movie’s distributors pulled it from cinemas. The honey-loving bear has been in the crosshairs of Chinese censors since this photo of Xi Jinping and Barack Obama went viral almost a decade ago.
1 million: More than 1 million people took to the streets in France Thursday as part of ongoing protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s recently passed pension reform. Images of protesters setting the Bordeaux town hall on fire likely contributed to King Charles III's decision to postpone a visit to the French capital, long known as the City of Love.
46: PM Anthony Albanese unveiled plans for a referendum to ask Australians if they want to include an Indigenous "Voice" — a formal body to offer advice on laws — for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution. If it passes, the change would be Australia's first constitutional amendment in 46 years.
50,000: About 50,000 US-bound migrants crossed the Darién Gap between Colombia and Panama in January and February, five times more than during the same period in 2022. The surge comes just as the Biden administration is trying to discourage asylum-seekers from making the dangerous journey, for instance, by mandating online applications.
200: About 200 people marched through the streets of Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, to show their undying love for ... China and Russia. The timing was curious: days earlier, nine Chinese workers were killed in an attack on a mining site, which a local militant group blamed, without evidence, on mercenaries from Russia's Wagner Group.
For background on Putin’s push in the CAR, see here.