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deportations
Guatemalan migrants walk after arriving at La Aurora Air Force Base on a deportation flight from the U.S., in Guatemala City, Guatemala, December 27, 2024.
Latin America braces for Trump’s deportation blitz
Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s challenge to Donald Trump over deportation flights lasted less than a day. But as the US administration ramps up deportations of undocumented migrants – focusing for now on those convicted of crimes – Latin American leaders are holding an emergency summit this Thursday.
Two key countries to watch in all of this:
First, Venezuela. Since 2015, political and economic crises have driven out nearly 8 million people. At least 270,000 of them live undocumented in the US. Despite long-standing enmity between los Yánquis and the socialist regime of Nicolás Maduro, Caracas has been open to deportation flights.
“He’s been trying to play nice with the new administration,” says Risa Grais-Targow, a regional expert at Eurasia Group. In part, Maduro wants to keep the US from reimposing sanctions on the oil sector, which Washington was technically bound to do after Maduro rigged his reelection last July.
“It’s unclear whether Trump will be moved,” says Grais-Targow. “He’s repeatedly said the US doesn’t need Venezuelan oil.” Without an agreement, the US will have to fly Venezuelans to third countries.
Second, Honduras: Nearly 300,000 Hondurans are at immediate risk of deportation. Honduras has been readying a support network for them but also, spicily, signaling that excessive US pressure could push the tiny country even closer to China.
The big question: Will a more aggressive US increase opportunities for a commercially active China to act as a counterbalance in the region more broadly?
Colombian President Gustavo Petro speaks during his visit and after a binational council of ministers, in Jacmel, Haiti, on Jan. 22, 2025.
White House: Colombia has agreed to take deported migrants
Petro had posted an announcement refusing to accept the flights early Sunday morning, saying, “The US cannot treat Colombian migrants as criminals. I deny the entry of American planes carrying Colombian migrants into our territory. The United States must establish a protocol for the dignified treatment of migrants before we receive them.”
On Sunday afternoon, Trump posted to Truth Social that he would apply “Emergency 25% tariffs on all goods coming into the United States [from Colombia]. In one week, the 25% tariffs will be raised to 50%.” Trump also imposed a travel ban and revoked the visas of Colombian government officials, their “Allies and Supporters” as well as all party members, family members, and supporters of the Colombian government.
In response, Colombia, the US’ third-largest trading partner in Latin America, threatened a 50% tariff on US goods – a risky prospect given that his country is facing a severe fiscal crisis.
By late Sunday, however, the White House said Colombia had agreed to Trump’s terms and would allow the US to send the migrants back to Colombia. This halted the threatened US tariffs, but the visa suspensions reportedly will remain in place until the first plane of deportees lands in Colombia.
We’re watching to see whether Petro continues to accept Trump's terms – or returns to tit-for-tat threats.
Migrants line up to leave the United States for Mexico after being deported across the Paso del Norte international border bridge after President Donald Trump promised mass deportation operation, as seen from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Jan. 23, 2025.
How Mexico is preparing for Trump’s mass deportations
The initiative, called “Mexico Embraces You,” aims to build nine migrant reception centers along the US border, and employ all 34 federal agencies and 16 state governments to repatriate and resettle returnees. The program intends to enroll people in pensions, paid apprenticeships, and other social welfare initiatives, and to distribute cash cards worth about $100 each. It will also bus people back to their hometowns.
Critics say Mexico is ill-equipped to handle the influx and accuse it of benefiting from migrant remittances, which boost foreign exchange, domestic incomes, and economic growth, while lacking a system to support repatriation. Some wonder what migrants will do once they return since many fled because of violence or lack of opportunity.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has expressed disagreement with Trump’s “unilateral” mass deportation decision, but with the US planning to implement 25% tariffs to force Mexico to crack down on the border, and the flood of migrants seemingly on their way back regardless, she has little choice but to prepare her country to receive them.