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Trump’s inaction on wrongful deportation may spark constitutional crisis
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If the US won't work to return a wrongly deported man to El Salvador despite a Supreme Court ruling, are we headed towards a constitutional crisis?
It certainly appears that way, and I think this is the constitutional crisis that the Trump administration would love to have. Because wrongfully deporting someone without evidence who is in the country illegally and therefore guilty of a misdemeanor, but sending them to a max security prison, which the Supreme Court says you shouldn't do, but now is in another country. Very few Americans are sympathetic to the case of this person. And indeed, Trump won on the basis in part of being sick and tired of allowing illegal immigrants to spend enormous amounts of time in the United States without recourse.
So he's breaking the law here. He's flouting independent judiciary and their decision-making, but he's doing it on an issue that most Americans have no sympathy on the other side. So the Democrats would have to be very wary of making this a hill they want to die on, and Trump knows exactly what he's doing. It is pretty impressive playbook for undermining rule of law and checks and balances on an increasingly authoritarian leaning executive. That's where we are.
Trump claims China-Vietnam talks are intended to "screw" the US. Does this run the risk of pushing Vietnam to China?
Certainly, most Vietnamese now are more well-disposed towards China than the US. First time we've seen that since the war. It's not true across Southeast Asia. Philippines, about 80% still pro-US, not pro-China. But it is a problem, and Xi Jinping understands that. And that's why he went in and was received directly by the president as opposed to the prime minister last time who met him at the airport. 45 big deals that they're signing on trying to improve economic coordination. Clearly a bit of a surprise to Trump, just as the direct retaliation from the Chinese, even though the Americans warned them, "Negotiate, don't retaliate." But that's exactly what China did, and Trump frankly should have expected that was coming. Now he looks a little bit weaker in the way he's backing down and creating exemptions for a lot of people in this space.
Saudi Arabia plans to pay off Syria's World Bank debt. Could this be a major turning point for Syria's future and its ties with regional allies?
It certainly helps. We've also seen the Qataris already say they're going to offer gas through Jordan into Syria. I think that this is all promising. The Saudis were never going to do that, provide any support as long as Assad was in place. Now they are. The Americans are pulling troops out, and Turkey is going to be the most important country on the ground. But economically, it's going to be the Gulf States, and that gives this new Syrian regime a better chance to succeed. Something we all clearly are rooting for in terms of one of the places that we'd like to see a little more stability from. Anyway, that's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Zelensky snubs China’s peace push, Trump vows to end war “very quickly” ›
- China’s vows to pump up its economy — with one eye on Trump’s tariffs ›
- El Salvador's president wins big. What does this mean for the country and its neighbors? ›
- El Salvador's Bukele refuses to return wrongly-deported Maryland man, and offers to jail US citizens too ›
A group of migrants sit as they wait to be transported for processing on the day the U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals hears oral arguments on Texas' motion to lift a block on its SB4 immigration law that would allow state officials to arrest migrants suspected of being in the country illegally, in El Paso, Texas, U.S. March 20, 2024 .
Supreme Court hands Trump a win, with caveats, and ACLU files new suit
In a 5-4 ruling, the US Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration could continue deporting suspected Venezuelan gang members to a Salvadoran prison using the 18th-century Alien Enemies Act, overturning a lower-court judge’s decision to temporarily halt the flights.
“A GREAT DAY FOR JUSTICE IN AMERICA!” US President Donald Trumpposted on Truth Social, celebrating the decision on Monday.
Not so fast. As part of the ruling, the Supreme Court stated that detainees are entitled to receive notice of their deportations and can challenge any decisions before a judge ahead of any removals, a privilege that the first set of deportees weren’t afforded. It comes after the White House started removing these alleged gang members, many of whom have no criminal record, last month. The executive branch even appeared to defy a judge’s order to turn around one of the planes. The American Civil Liberties Union duly asked a New York judge on Tuesday to halt the removals of two migrants who are being detained in the Empire State.
“The critical point is that the Supreme Court said individuals must be given due process to challenge their removal under the Alien Enemies Act. That is a huge victory,”
ACLU attorney Lee Gelerntsaid of the ruling.Out of left field. From requesting more funds for border patrol to invoking old laws, Trump has explored several avenues to secure the border and remove migrants. That’s unlikely to stop anytime soon, as he now explores a $998 daily charge for migrants who shun deportation orders.
Guatemalan migrants walk after arriving at La Aurora Air Force Base on a deportation flight from the U.S., in Guatemala City, Guatemala, December 27, 2024.
Latin America braces for Trump’s deportation blitz
Colombian President Gustavo Petro’s challenge to Donald Trump over deportation flights lasted less than a day. But as the US administration ramps up deportations of undocumented migrants – focusing for now on those convicted of crimes – Latin American leaders are holding an emergency summit this Thursday.
Two key countries to watch in all of this:
First, Venezuela. Since 2015, political and economic crises have driven out nearly 8 million people. At least 270,000 of them live undocumented in the US. Despite long-standing enmity between los Yánquis and the socialist regime of Nicolás Maduro, Caracas has been open to deportation flights.
“He’s been trying to play nice with the new administration,” says Risa Grais-Targow, a regional expert at Eurasia Group. In part, Maduro wants to keep the US from reimposing sanctions on the oil sector, which Washington was technically bound to do after Maduro rigged his reelection last July.
“It’s unclear whether Trump will be moved,” says Grais-Targow. “He’s repeatedly said the US doesn’t need Venezuelan oil.” Without an agreement, the US will have to fly Venezuelans to third countries.
Second, Honduras: Nearly 300,000 Hondurans are at immediate risk of deportation. Honduras has been readying a support network for them but also, spicily, signaling that excessive US pressure could push the tiny country even closer to China.
The big question: Will a more aggressive US increase opportunities for a commercially active China to act as a counterbalance in the region more broadly?
Colombian President Gustavo Petro speaks during his visit and after a binational council of ministers, in Jacmel, Haiti, on Jan. 22, 2025.
White House: Colombia has agreed to take deported migrants
Petro had posted an announcement refusing to accept the flights early Sunday morning, saying, “The US cannot treat Colombian migrants as criminals. I deny the entry of American planes carrying Colombian migrants into our territory. The United States must establish a protocol for the dignified treatment of migrants before we receive them.”
On Sunday afternoon, Trump posted to Truth Social that he would apply “Emergency 25% tariffs on all goods coming into the United States [from Colombia]. In one week, the 25% tariffs will be raised to 50%.” Trump also imposed a travel ban and revoked the visas of Colombian government officials, their “Allies and Supporters” as well as all party members, family members, and supporters of the Colombian government.
In response, Colombia, the US’ third-largest trading partner in Latin America, threatened a 50% tariff on US goods – a risky prospect given that his country is facing a severe fiscal crisis.
By late Sunday, however, the White House said Colombia had agreed to Trump’s terms and would allow the US to send the migrants back to Colombia. This halted the threatened US tariffs, but the visa suspensions reportedly will remain in place until the first plane of deportees lands in Colombia.
We’re watching to see whether Petro continues to accept Trump's terms – or returns to tit-for-tat threats.
Migrants line up to leave the United States for Mexico after being deported across the Paso del Norte international border bridge after President Donald Trump promised mass deportation operation, as seen from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Jan. 23, 2025.
How Mexico is preparing for Trump’s mass deportations
The initiative, called “Mexico Embraces You,” aims to build nine migrant reception centers along the US border, and employ all 34 federal agencies and 16 state governments to repatriate and resettle returnees. The program intends to enroll people in pensions, paid apprenticeships, and other social welfare initiatives, and to distribute cash cards worth about $100 each. It will also bus people back to their hometowns.
Critics say Mexico is ill-equipped to handle the influx and accuse it of benefiting from migrant remittances, which boost foreign exchange, domestic incomes, and economic growth, while lacking a system to support repatriation. Some wonder what migrants will do once they return since many fled because of violence or lack of opportunity.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has expressed disagreement with Trump’s “unilateral” mass deportation decision, but with the US planning to implement 25% tariffs to force Mexico to crack down on the border, and the flood of migrants seemingly on their way back regardless, she has little choice but to prepare her country to receive them.