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Hard Numbers: Facebook turns 20, DeSantis’ vote cost, Eurozone inflation falls, Dark money Down Under, Paris’ Grape Escape
20: On Sunday, Facebook turns 20 years old. Take a moment to look back at the social network’s early days – when it was a platform for dorky teens playfully “poking” each other. That was before the Obama 2008 campaign demonstrated its political utility, before young Egyptians showed dictators its threat to their power in 2011, and long before the site became a dumpster fire of Boomer conspiracy theories. And as for the teens? On Wednesday, CEO Mark Zuckerberg apologized to families who had been victimized on his platforms during a Congressional hearing on online child safety.
7,169: How much does getting your vote cost? Well, if you caucused for Ron DeSantis in Iowa, it came out to about $7,169 after the once-hopeful rival to Donald Trump spent a staggering $168 million on his campaign, only to flame out and quit after he wound up 30 percentage points behind the GOP front-runner.
2.8: Inflation in the Eurozone fell to 2.8 after rising in December, but don’t get too excited about a possible rate cut from the European Central Bank. The index is still running well ahead of its 2% target, and prices for services in particular remain stubbornly high.
57 million: Nearly AU$57 million (~US$37 million) donated to Australian political parties in 2022 and 2023 was of unknown origin, according to an analysis by the Australian Electoral Commission published Thursday. The so-called “dark money” represents about a quarter of all funding to major political parties Down Under, where the identities of donors below AU$15,200 are not subject to compulsory disclosure. (~US$9988).
1.6 million: French police are investigating the theft of 83 wine bottles from one of Paris’ finest restaurants in a $1.6 million caper. The loss was noticed when the sommelier of the 442-year-old Tour d’Argent restaurant did an inventory of his 300,000 bottles and could have occurred anytime between 2020 and 2024. GZERO sends our condolences *hic* – we have no idea what happened *hic*. 🥴😬Haley’s last stand
Is a Donald Trump triumph inevitable? After the former president’s crushing victory in the Iowa caucuses, where he obtained a never-before-seen 51% of the vote, all eyes turn to Tuesday’s contest in New Hampshire.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign on Sunday and endorsed the former president. The man who emulated Trump right down to his hand gestures while on the political rise was at one point considered the leading candidate to take him on, coming within 15 percentage points of Trump in polls from March, 2023. But he wound up 30 points behind in Iowa — and his choice to endorse Trump shows just how firmly the former president controls the Republican Party.
So now, it’s a do-or-die moment for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the last contender with even the slightest chance of rivaling the former president. The former UN ambassador placed third against Trump in Iowa and must perform well on Tuesday – she probably needs to win outright – if her campaign is to continue.
The Granite State offers Haley her best chance. A significant number of New Hampshire Republicans are staunchly anti-Trump. The state is also famous for its political independence and open primary system. Haley’s strategy hinges on wooing moderate Republicans and mobilizing independent voters disillusioned with Trump's polarizing politics.
Despite this, Haley has a fight on her hands. Trump took the state with 35% of the vote in 2016, and the most recent poll shows him leading Haley by eleven points. At a recent rally in Concord, NH, Trump trotted out an endorsement from South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott. And Trump has shamelessly played the race card: In a post on his Truth Social account, Trump repeatedly referred to Haley, the daughter of Indian immigrants, as “Nimbra.” (She was born Nimarata Nikki Randhawa but has always used her middle name.)
The anti-Trump forces know what’s at stake. In the words of Gordon J. Humphrey, a former New Hampshire senator now campaigning against Trump. “If he wins here, Trump will be unstoppable.”
And the world is watching
A Trump triumph wouldn’t just upset the apple cart in America. It would mean challenges for many world leaders – including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
A bipartisan deal in the Senate that would get more aid to Ukraine in exchange for tougher immigration measures desired by the GOP looks like it may stall after Trump expressed his opposition to it on social media. It’s the kind of curveball that should make foreign leaders wonder which of their key interests with the United States might be held hostage to domestic political priorities should Trump win again in November.
Trump wins by a landslide in Iowa
It only took the Associated Press 32 minutes to call the race for the former president. Blizzard conditions didn’t seem to hurt Donald Trump any more than his refusal to debate his opponents or a laundry list of legal troubles. Caucus workers in many precincts had packed up and gone home within an hour of opening as Trump easily cleared 51% of the vote.
The race to No. 2: Much closer was the contest between former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, though the latter managed to pull ahead with 21% of the vote to Haley’s 19%. Still, neither secured enough of an advantage to emerge as the clear alternative to Trump.
Vivek Ramaswamy finished a distant fourth, leading the long-shot candidate to hang up his campaign boots and endorse Trump.
Next up: New Hampshire’s primary is next Tuesday, Jan. 23. Haley is polling much more competitively in the Granite State … albeit with a 10 percentage point gap behind Trump.
This paints a rather grim picture of Haley’s best path to the White House, which seems to depend on Trump being rendered ineligible by a court ruling in one of his many ongoing cases. If polling is to be believed, even a conviction is unlikely to bother Republican voters much – as the majority are convinced Trump has done nothing wrong.
And the gate is even narrower for DeSantis, who staked his candidacy’s future on overperforming in Iowa. His polling numbers in New Hampshire and South Carolina have him closer to Ramaswamy than Haley — and miles behind Donald Trump.
Debate club vs. the rockstar in Iowa
To kick off the final debate before the first GOP primary, Chris Christie bowed out of the race – and he wasn’t exactly graceful. The former New Jersey governor was caught mocking his remaining Republican rivals, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who took to the CNN stage last night.
The debate kicked off with the only question that matters if either candidate is going to be seen as a viable candidate after the Iowa primary: Why should Iowa voters see either of them as a better alternative to the front-runner, Trump? In response, DeSantis threw punches at Haley, while Haley cited her credentials, directed viewers to a website that fact-checks DeSantis, and cast herself as more electable than the former president.
From there, like a relic from a bygone era, the two actually debated … policy. They discussed everything from fiscal conservatism to school choice. Haley blamed Trump for ballooning the deficit and reiterated her position that the GOP should avoid politicizing abortion. Meanwhile, DeSantis focused on intertwining illegal immigration with crime and cast Haley’s positions as left of center. They both called out Trump for avoiding the debate stage – with Haley specifically condemning his actions on Jan. 6.
On foreign policy, the two competed to see who could support Israel more. They diverged most on Ukraine, where only Haley expressed a willingness to continue US support.
But Haley, who had made promising advances in the polls in recent weeks, needed to convince Iowans that she was a viable candidate to defeat Trump. Instead, she focused on defaming DeSantis, which could hurt her vote count and presidential prospects when the primary season kicks off on Monday.
Meanwhile … across town at the Trump town hall, the former president was playing all his greatest hits to a crowd of adoring fans. Think Billy Joel at Madison Square Garden when the Long Island Association of Step-Dads is in town. When asked what new efforts he would pursue in a second term, he said he'd finish building the wall, reimplement the “remain in Mexico” migration policy, and expand US energy production (eagle-eyed Daily readers will note these are not new efforts).
Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump participates in a Fox News Channel town hall ahead of the caucus vote in Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 10, 2024. REUTERS/Scott Morgan
Trump called his ongoing legal imbroglio a “witch hunt” and election interference. He gave a couple of shout outs to pals like Chinese President Xi Jinping, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un. He hammered Ron “DeSanctimonious” for his COVID policy and implied he wears shoe lifts. He gave a dubious anecdote about an unnamed Fox News employee who thanked him for saving 2 million lives by repealing Roe v. Wade (no tears this time).
It was classic Trump, in his environment, ripping out the hits.
The audience seemed to respond most strongly to Trump's comments on immigration, rapidly emerging as Biden’s most intractable vulnerability. He pointed to New York City Mayor Eric Adams' conflicts with the Biden administration over the influx of migrants in response to a question about ending sanctuary cities and claimed Democratic administrations in sanctuary cities would soon end the policies on their own because of the severity of the crisis.
The most challenging query came from a voter who asked Trump to endorse an extreme pro-life position and questioned why he blamed pro-life politicians for recent Republican losses in states where abortion was on the ballot. Trump had a straightforward answer: because they lost. If Republicans keep losing, he said, Democrats can reinstate the status quo under Roe v. Wade. He refused to endorse an absolute abortion ban, and said he aimed to please the most people he could to end the debate on a divisive issue.
Trump did try out at least one new number: After previously claiming he would only be a dictator for one day should he return to office, he said he now needs two – one to seal the border and one to unleash the oil pumps. How many days will he need by November?
Disney, 100 years of magic, princesses, and politics
The Walt Disney Company turns 100 years old on Monday, and after a century of fairy tales and magic, our hyperpartisan reality is encroaching on the Magic Kingdom.
Founded on Oct. 16, 1923, by brothers Walt and Roy Disney, the company established itself as a leader in animation. Mickey Mouse debuted in “Steamboat Willie” five years later, in 1928. Since then, it has grown into an empire, amassing $67 billion in annual revenue and encompassing Pixar, Marvel, ABC, National Geographic, and ESPN – just to name some of its subsidiaries.
Walt Disney, the man, envisioned a “family entertainment” company focused on fantasy and free of politics. Nevertheless, Disney has always been political.
Walt himself was an anti-communist conservative who founded the Hollywood Republican Committee to counteract the influence of the Progressive Citizens of America in California. George Murphy, his cofounder of the group, would go on to become a Republican Senator from California with Disney’s backing.
During World War II, Disney went to war. The company established a unit devoted to producing propaganda and insignia for the military free of charge. The most requested character was Donald Duck.
Disney would be shocked to know that the GOP has turned on his company in recent years. Ahead of the launch of Disney Plus, Disney went back through its film catalog to flag potentially problematic content that includes “stereotypes that were wrong then and are wrong now” – as the disclaimers read. It also decided to make the loudspeaker announcement at its theme parks gender-neutral, removing “ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls.”
In Disney World’s hometown in the Sunshine State, this change dragged them into the crosshairs of a Florida law – dubbed the “Don’t Say Gay” bill – that restricts classroom instruction through third grade on sexual orientation and gender identity. Disney denounced the bill under the pressure of employees, leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to send a fundraising email to his supporters denouncing “Woke Disney” and threatening to revoke the theme park’s ability to function as its own municipal government, as it has for the last 55 years.
Disney had previously crossed DeSantis when they issued a vaccine mandate for employees after the state restricted workplaces from making such requirements.
But Disney has angered its fair share of liberals as well. The brand has long been criticized for being too American, too traditional, and too white. After World War II, it was accused of spreading the notion of the post-war nuclear family around the world. In the 1990s, leftist radicals concerned about “cultural imperialism” detonated a bomb at the opening of Euro Disney in Paris. While the company is trying to tell more diverse stories today, it took until 2009 for Disney to introduce a Black princess. Since then, it has continued to champion diversity, from the all-Hispanic cast in “Coco” to the “Eternals” featuring a gay superhero who kisses his husband on screen.
The shift towards inclusion can be attributed to Disney’s CEO from 2005 to 2020, Robert A. Iger, who pushed for more diverse casting and storytelling. At the 2017 Disney shareholder meeting, Iger fully embraced entertainment as activism: “When we make a movie called ‘Zootopia,’ which is about prejudice … we can actually change people’s behavior – get people to be more accepting of the multiple differences and cultures and races.” Iger has since returned and is Disney's CEO today.
Disney is an unavoidable behemoth of a brand, giving it the power to weather the seasons of public opinion. But in our era of hyperpartisanness, everyone wants the biggest entertainment company on their side, so the politicization of Disney will likely persist well past the company’s 100th birthday.
The Graphic Truth: Who's leading the Republican primary?
If you know anything about the state of the Republican presidential race right now, you know that former President Donald Trump is leaps and bounds ahead of the pack. But the race is just getting started.
A lot can change in the first few primary states and debates, so we decided to track the polls in three early primary states to see if Trump holds onto his formidable lead or if another candidate emerges to give him a run for his money. These are where the numbers stood before the first debate. We will report back if the tides begin to turn.
DeSantis’ 2024 launch plagued by Twitter glitches
We all knew he was going to join the 2024 US presidential race — it was just a matter of how and when. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis answered those questions on Wednesday night, officially throwing his hat in the ring on a Twitter Space hosted by Elon Musk.
But despite months of anticipation and preparation, things did not go smoothly. The social media app repeatedly crashed as listeners tuned in to hear the Florida governor, leaving DeSantis unable to speak for 30 minutes.
Picking Twitter was as strategic as it was unprecedented. By going to Musk ahead of Fox, DeSantis positioned himself as someone outside the political media establishment. He was perhaps trying to associate himself with Musk’s free speech persona, which could appeal to a swath of conservative voters that DeSantis needs. The governor may also believe Musk will be the next Republican kingmaker.
Once things finally started working, DeSantis’ political messaging tracked closely with the concerns of popular conservative social media users and podcast hosts. Complaints about identity politics? Check. Promises to help Bitcoin? Check. Taking aim at the “woke” movement? Check. While most Americans say the economy is their biggest concern ahead of the 2024 vote, DeSantis is clearly playing into America’s culture wars.
Fox News still got the first national TV interview, where DeSantis presented his traditional conservative platform – one we’ve seen play out in the Sunshine State. DeSantis spoke about his feuds with Disney, his crackdown on education and gender politics, and his hardline approach to immigration.
He also spoke favorably about upcoming debates on the campaign trail – an indirect challenge to Donald Trump, who has indicated he may skip the initial debates. But DeSantis lags well behind Trump in the polls and faces strategic challenges that will be hard to overcome as he battles against the former president for the GOP nomination.
Plenty of pundits have guessed which jokes and nicknames Trump might hurl at DeSantis on the campaign trail, and few will be surprised by Trump’s team making light of the Twitter Space snafus. “Glitchy. Tech issues. Uncomfortable silences. A complete failure to launch. And that’s just the candidate,” said a Trump spokesperson.
Will this strategy help or hurt DeSantis in the GOP primary? He'll need to fight the narrative that he's "too online," Eurasia Group's US Managing Director Jon Lieber says on this week's US Politics in 60 Seconds.
DeSantis struggles to connect with reporters and voters, so going to Twitter allows him to bypass the media filter and avoid contact with humans. But the Florida governor lacks Trump's offline and online charisma, not to mention the former president's unique ability to make news and raise money on social media despite the limited reach of his Truth Social account.
Outperforming the most online person ever to hold public office would be a tall order for anyone. But Lieber says it'll be even harder for DeSantis, who's not as prolific as other top Republicans and has yet to learn Trump's magic touch for doling out MAGA red meat and owning the Libs.
Quick Take: COVID latest update (The Good, The Bad & The Fauci)
Ian Bremmer 's Quick Take:
We're still in the middle of a plague. A major pandemic. You know, no locusts, no frogs, not in the United States anywhere. Lots of locusts in sub-Saharan Africa. But coronavirus is still very much with us.
I was so happy to see that in New York City, we finally had a day, the first day since the pandemic broke out here, with no deaths, just yesterday. And obviously a lot of hard work on the part of health workers at low wages and at great personal cost. A lot of patience on the part of all the citizens of New York City and a lot of frustration. And finally, getting to the point where slowly, slowly, slowly the economy is reopening.
I wish I could say that was true for the rest of the country. When New York City has zero deaths, Florida with deaths increasing. Still, I mean, you know, only had a couple of days with over 100 but 15,000 cases. Young people right now, that's the largest number of cases any state has had since this whole thing started. And would put Florida as, if it were a country, is number four in the world after the US, Brazil and India in terms of numbers of cases that day, which is really quite something. Governor DeSantis, a lot of people said he was doing a great job a couple months ago, people are not saying that anymore.