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Malawi soldiers part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) military mission for eastern Congo, wait for the ceremony to repatriate the two bodies of South African soldiers killed in the ongoing war between M23 rebels and the Congolese army in Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo February 20, 2024.
Congolese ceasefire collapsing as peacekeepers’ mandate extended
Fighters from the M23 rebel group in northeastern Congo have been targeting civilians in violation of a July ceasefire agreement, according to the Southern African Development Community, whose peacekeeping mandate there will expire on Dec. 15.
Background: For two years now, M23 forces backed by neighboring Rwanda have been fighting to establish control over mineral rich provinces in the region. The conflict has so far displaced at least 7 million people, and killed unknown thousands.
The SADC forces haven’t been able to push back the M23, but have at least managed to hold on to the key city of Goma, where hundreds of thousands of refugees are sheltering. Leaders from SADC countries are meeting in Zimbabwe on Thursday to discuss extending the mission, but should they fail to agree, M23 will have the upper hand.
UN Peacekeepers in the region are widely scorned by locals for their inability to keep ordinary people safe, while the DRC’s own army is poorly trained and deeply corrupt. Without SADC troops, Goma will likely fall, and Rwanda’s proxies will consolidate their hold on the region.
What does the Trump administration mean for the DRC? President Félix Tshisekedi has expressed excitement about working with Trump to deepen US-DRC relations, amid hopes the US will provide greater resources to help stabilize the country. However, what scant attention Trump gave to Congo on the campaign trail was overwhelmingly negative: Axios found that he cited Congolese migrants as criminals at least 29 times between Sept. 2023 and Oct. 2024, and accused the DRC of emptying prisons to send violent criminals to the US.
A child, suffering from malnutrition, is treated at Port Sudan Paediatric Centre, during a visit by WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus to the country, in Sudan, on Sept. 7, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Cholera spreads in Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo turns to an unlikely source to boost tourism, Mass executions held in Iraq, Gunman hijacks bus in LA
430: Over 430 people have died from cholera in Sudan in the past month, according to the country’s health ministry, and the devastating civil war there is making it hard to provide treatment. Doctors Without Borders recently described the health system in Sudan as “decimated” and warned that the humanitarian response amid the cholera outbreak is “regularly obstructed by both warring parties.”
3: AC Milan, one of Italy’s top soccer teams, is reportedly in talks with the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo for a three-year sponsorship deal that would see the club promote the African country as a tourism destination. But there’s an ongoing war in the DRC. Vacationing in a war zone – what could go wrong? The Italian ambassador to the country was killed there just three years ago when the convoy he was traveling with was ambushed, making it no surprise that Italy currently advises people against visiting the country.
21: Iraq executed 21 people, including a woman, on Wednesday, with most reportedly charged with terrorism. Rights groups like Amnesty International have fiercely criticized Iraq for convicting people on “overly broad and vague terrorism charges,” and they have urged the Iraqi government to halt executions.
7: A bus was hijacked by a gunman in Los Angeles on Wednesday and traveled nearly seven miles before coming to a stop after police used spike strips and punctured one of the tires. One passenger reportedly died from gunshot wounds. The suspect has surrendered, but the motive remains unclear.
A renegade Congolese soldier stands at an outpost in Eastern Congo deserted town of Kanyabayonga December 16, 2004 which is deserted due to clashes in the area. The Democratic Republic of Congo has replaced its army commander in the eastern province of North Kivu, the scene of days of fighting between government reinforcements and rebel units, authorities said.
Humanitarian truce extended in Congo
A humanitarian truce in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo between government troops and M23 rebels backed by neighboring Rwanda was extended by 15 days, to Aug. 3, but fighting in the area continues, and the prospect of a wider conflict looms.
The background: Over a hundred rebel groups are fighting for control of mineral-rich regions in the eastern DRC along the Rwandan border. M23, formed by deserters from the DRC army, is the most powerful of the groups – its decision to launch an offensive to capture the provincial capital of Goma in 2022 reignited a decades-long conflict in DRC that has so far displaced more than 3 million people.
Rwanda’s history of ethnic tensions is part of the story. Thirty years ago, Rwanda’s Hutu majority committed a genocide against the Tutsi minority. Rwanda says some of the DRC-backed militias around Goma, such as the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, are composed of Hutu genocidaires who escaped across the border to avoid justice.
The UN, meanwhile, says Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, a Tutsi, has deployed up to 4,000 troops to fight alongside the M23, against DRC forces.
Risk of regional outbreak. Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi has threatened war against Rwanda in retaliation for Kagame’s involvement.
Suspended Jewish Columbia and Barnard students participate in a press conference outside the president of Columbia University’s house on April 23, 2024, in Manhattan, New York.
Hard Numbers: Columbia punishes deans, Iran boosts missile output, UN accuses Rwanda of fighting in Congo, Colombia protects the forest
3: Columbia University on Monday removed three deans from their positions over antisemitic text messages they exchanged in a group chat during a late-May event about Jewish life on campus in the wake of protests about Oct. 7 and the war in Gaza. The three have been placed on indefinite leave. For our complete on-the-ground coverage of the upheaval at Columbia this spring, led by GZERO’s Riley Callanan, see here.
2: Iran has been ramping up its output of ballistic missiles at two key production facilities, according to satellite imagery. Tehran’s most prominent buyers of the missiles include the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Hezbollah paramilitaries in Lebanon and, of course, Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which signed a missile deal with Iran in 2022.
3,000-4,000: A new UN report alleges that 3,000-4,000 regular Rwandan Army forces are fighting alongside M23 rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a serious allegation that follows years of accusations that Rwanda is deliberately destabilizing its neighbor. Alarmingly, the report also implicates Uganda — which had deployed a force to fight the rebels as part of a regional military intervention to support Congo — in providing support for M23, essentially playing both sides of the conflict.
305: Deforestation in Colombia fell by more than a third last year, to just 305 square miles, the lowest figure on record. The decline comes atop a 20% fall the previous year. About half of the deforestation was in the Colombian Amazon. President Gustavo Petro has sought to rein in corporate access to the rainforest, but orders from local guerilla groups to stop cutting down trees have also helped. Experts warn that despite progress, droughts caused by the hot-weather El Niño weather pattern this year could push up deforestation.
Participants hold a candle light night vigil during a commemoration event, known as "Kwibuka" (Remembering), as Rwanda marks the 30th anniversary of the 1994 Genocide, at the BK arena in Kigali, Rwanda April 7, 2024.
30 years since Rwanda’s genocide, ethnic violence continues to plague Central Africa
Rwandan President Paul Kagame led a memorial ceremony on Sunday to mark the 30th anniversary of the genocide that killed more than a million people. Rwanda’s Hutu and Tutsi ethnic groups are no longer in open conflict in the country, but the legacy of the 100 days of slaughter that began on April 7, 1994, carries on in a conflict in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo.
The background: Conflict between Rwanda’s major ethnic groups dates back to the colonial period, when German and Belgian authorities privileged ethnic Tutsis over Hutus for choice jobs and social status. Hutus dominated government after achieving independence in 1962, leading to a long-running war meant to end with a power-sharing agreement in 1993.
However, the day after Hutu President Juvenal Habyarimana’s plane was shot down on April 6, 1994, Hutu extremists launched a long-planned assault against ethnic Tutsis and moderate Hutus. Over the next 100 days, over a million people were butchered in the violence before an ethnic Tutsi militia, the Rwanda Patriotic Front, invaded and overthrew the genocidaires. The Tutsi victory pushed over two million Hutu civilians into exile in neighboring countries.
The present: One of those neighboring countries was the Democratic Republic of Congo (also home to an indigenous Hutu population). Rwandan Tutsi-led forces invaded their gargantuan neighbor twice to chase down alleged genocidaires between 1994 and 2003.
Now, Rwanda backs the Tutsi-led M23 militia in the DRC, which Kigali allegedly uses to extract valuable mineral resources. Rwanda, in turn, accuses Kinshasa of backing the Hutu-led Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, which seeks to overthrow Kagame. Civilians in the DRC are forced to bear the brunt of it: 250,000 civilians have been displaced in the last month as M23 presses toward the key city of Goma.Peter Navarro, who served as U.S. then-President Donald Trump's trade adviser, talks to the media before turning himself in at a federal correctional institution to begin his prison sentence for defying a subpoena from a panel that investigated the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, in Miami, Florida, U.S.
Hard Numbers: Former Trump adviser goes to jail, Cambodia bans musical car horns, DRC suffers M23 siege, Afghanistan endures dire drought
38: In a move straight out of "Footloose," Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet has banned musical horns after videos surfaced on social media showing people, especially youths, engaging in impromptu dances on roads to tunes emitted by truck horns. Manet, who succeeded his father Hun Sen, has directed the Ministry of Public Works and Transportation and police to enforce the ban nationwide, aiming to curb what he views as a public order and traffic safety issue.
230,000: Goma, a resource-rich city in the Democratic Republic of Congo, is under siege from M23 rebels reportedly backed by Rwanda. With nearly all supply routes controlled by M23, the conflict is asphyxiating the city, causing a surge in basic commodity prices. Over 230,000 people fled Goma in February, with aid agencies warning of humanitarian disaster and the increasing risk of a wider regional conflict.
21 million: Afghanistan, one of the nations most susceptible to climate change, faces a dire situation as a fourth straight year of drought displaces entire villages, leaving fields barren and stomachs empty. The drought has deprived 21 million Afghans, almost half of the country's population, of access to potable water.
FILE PHOTO: Members of Burundi's National Defence Force (FDN), part of the troops of the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF), arrive to their deployment as part of a regional military operation targeting rebels, at the airport in Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo March 5, 2023.
Burundi detains troops who refused to fight in Congo
The Burundian government has been detaining troops for refusing orders to deploy to the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, where Burundi is trying to stop the advances of a rebel group backed by Rwanda. The focus now is on the key border city of Goma.
The background: The area around Goma is rich in minerals, which armed groups and their backers have vied to control for years. The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group began taking territory two years ago and funneling the spoils back to their patrons. UN peacekeepers have been largely unable to stop violence that has pushed hundreds of thousands of people into dangerous refugee camps.
A Kenyan-led intervention force managed to hold Goma last year, but withdrew in November, opening the way for M23. In December, Burundi intervened, but troops say they are fighting blind, hence the desertions. That leaves a South African-led coalition as Goma’s best bet.
What’s next? The fighting will be brutal, with 2 million residents of Goma in the crossfire. M23 is angling to cut the city off from the rest of the DRC. If they succeed, the rebels – and their Rwandan supporters – will be in a commanding position to extract concessions from Kinshasa.A Congolese girl carries vegetables for sale on the last day of the electoral campaign in Goma, North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo December 18, 2023.
The DRC wants stability. Will this week’s election deliver?
On Wednesday, voters in the vast heart of central Africa go to the polls in just the fourth election since the Democratic Republic of Congo began transitioning to democracy 20 years ago. Incumbent President Félix Tshisekedi looks likely to beat the crowded opposition, but he faces a severe crisis of insecurity in the mineral-rich northeast, while folks in the more secure west and south struggle to get ahead against ubiquitous corruption and lack of resources.
But for all its problems, Congo is brimming with potential. It is the world’s No. 3 copper producer and plays a crucial role in the green energy economy as a source of cobalt, tantalum, and tungsten. It is home to some of the last pristine rainforests on the planet and cooperates with Brazil and Indonesia in efforts to bolster this crucial resource in the fight against climate change. Plus, Congo is an incredibly young country, with a median age of just 16. Its population is projected to reach 200 million people by 2050, the majority of whom will be fluent in a global language, French.
So who are the main contenders to take on the difficult task of running the DRC?
- Félix Tshisekedi took power in the country's first-ever peaceful democratic transition in 2019 – and even then previous President Joseph Kabila remained a thorn in Tshisekedi’s side via his control of the legislature (he’s still a senator-for-life). Félix is the son of venerated pro-democracy leader Étienne Tshisekedi, who opposed both the dictatorship of Mobutu Sese Seko and the regimes of Kabila and his father. Polling is scarce in the DRC, but US-based firm Geopoll, which specializes in African elections, put Tshisekedi’s support at 55%, which ought to be plenty to overcome the divided opposition.
- Martin Fayulu, Tshisekedi’s main rival in the 2018 election — which he claims, with some evidence, was fraudulently stolen from him — is back on the campaign trail, doubling down on anti-corruption pledges. He’s promising not to take a cent in salary (as a former ExxonMobil exec, he can afford it) and reinvest that money in social programs.
- Moïse Katumbi is the governor of Katanga province and one of the richest men in the DRC. His efforts to expand and formalize copper production, develop agriculture, and build infrastructure in the province have led to long-term economic growth, which he says he can bring to the Congo as a whole.
- Denis Mukwege is a gynecologist who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2018 for his work helping women in the conflict-ridden Northeast who had suffered sexual violence. He is the only leading candidate from the center of the conflict zone and enjoys national admiration for his work, but he has no political experience.
In addition to these four, over a dozen more candidates are running for president, but none are expected to net strong results.
Who’s likely to take office in January?
Tshisekedi looks strong, but it’s hard to know who will come out on top – and it’s not just because of a lack of polling. Joseph Mulala Nguramo, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Freedom and Prosperity Center and Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, said the lack of transparency around vote counting could lead to a situation where multiple candidates declare victory on Wednesday.
“That would put the country into one of the worst crises we have seen in our history,” he says. “Is it possible the candidates will reach out to their voting bases and call for violence? I like to think we won’t go there because the country won’t survive.”
Independent observers have already raised the alarm that the government’s preparations are inadequate to deliver a free and fair election, and Tshisekedi’s rivals have complained he is using government powers to impede their campaigns.
But Ben Shepherd, who specializes in DRC politics at Chatham House, said that voters’ sophisticated understanding of how the system works – corrupt as it is – could prevent the worst scenarios.
“Congolese voters don’t have a great deal of faith that anyone with political aspirations is doing it for the right reasons,” he says. If rival candidates call for demonstrations in Kinshasa, voters “know they could tear the city apart, but that it probably wouldn’t change a great deal.”
And it is important to note that Tshisekedi has delivered some progress on key issues. The economy has grown strongly under him — though corruption prevents most of the benefits from reaching ordinary folks — and the conflict in the Northeast has thus far been contained, rather than spiraling into a regional war as in 1996 and 1998.
Challenges for the winner
The immediate problem for whoever wins will be in control of the legislature. No candidate is likely to earn a parliamentary majority, says Nguramo. They also face six more rounds of local elections through 2024, meaning a clear picture of the political landscape might not emerge for months.
The armed conflict in the Northeast remains a major risk, and Tshisekedi’s efforts to suppress the rebels with help from the United Nations and the East African Community regional bloc appear to be on the rocks. Many locals in the Kivu provinces and Ituri resent the foreign troops for failing to keep them safe, and Tshisekedi has asked both the UN and EAC to leave.
“Taking a hard line with the UN particularly plays very well and touches a nerve of the Congolese population, a sense of being abandoned by the world, which isn’t entirely untrue,” says Shepherd, adding that Tshisekedi’s frustration that EAC troops did not take the offensive against the rebels led to the breakdown.
Long term, both Nguramo and Shepherd believe Kinshasa needs to improve its engagement with the wider world and accentuate the progress it has made. The perception of the DRC as a hopeless “heart of darkness” unfairly colors the world’s vision and impedes necessary investment and support.
In a country where powerful individuals have helped themselves to tens of billions of dollars of public money, Nguramo says the DRC will not truly thrive until it has expunged its culture of bribery and embezzlement. If you’re an ordinary person, he adds, “you wake up in the morning and don’t know where your next meal will come from. You don’t know how to bring your kids to school. How many schools could you build [with the money lost to corruption]? How many hospitals, how many roads?”