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The future of modern warfare
Technology in Ukraine is transforming the battlefield in real time. How will it change the US national security strategy? And could what's happening in Ukraine shift China’s President Xi Jinping’s future plans in Taiwan? Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stravridis joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to talk about how technology is creating a “new triad” of warfare, i.e., unmanned systems, cyber and artificial intelligence, and special forces.
Modern conflict no longer requires huge standing armies to fight effectively; just look at Ukraine’s success in the Black Sea. Smaller militaries are increasingly using drones, satellites, and unmanned systems against larger armies. Stavridis says Taiwan is a “resistance fighter’s dream” because of its geography and resources. Plus, it manufactures about half of the world’s computer chips, which China relies on for its technology infrastructure. But Stavridis also warns the same technology is empowering malefactors and terrorist groups, creating dangerous asymmetrical warfare.
“The US will continue to be the preeminent nation at projecting power. China will make a play to do it. Russia, the lights are going to go out,” the Admiral says, “But it’s acts of terrorism and the ability to use weapons of mass disruption, that’s what you need to worry about.”
For more on technology and the transformation of war, check out Admiral Stavridis’ book "2054: A Novel". His newest book, "The Restless Wave", a historical novel about the rise of new technology in the Pacific during WWII, is out October 8.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Russia hammers Ukraine with massive airstrike
Ukrainians endured a brutal barrage of drone and missile strikes targeting Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine on Monday. The attacks killed at least three people, wounded at least 13, and cut off electricity in parts of the country. One of those killed, Ryan Evans, was a 38-year-old British veteran security adviser working with Reuters, and two other members of the team had to be hospitalized, one with serious injuries.
Sadly, Ukrainians are accustomed to waking up to air raid sirens and no electricity. Regional officials swiftly moved to open “points of invincibility,” essentially shelters that can keep people safe from the bombs and also offer a chance to charge electronics and have a snack.
The big picture: Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory near Kursk has spooked Moscow, which is struggling to push them back. Ukrainians have also launched daring drone raids deep into Russia, even targeting Moscow. Russia means to remind Ukraine it can still cause immense disruption with its long-range missiles.
And in the south, Russian forces are steadily advancing on the key town of Pokrovsk, forcing civilians to evacuate. Taking the city would secure key roads Moscow needs to secure the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a priority.Is Iran sending drones to Sudan?
Iranian drones are playing a game-changing role in Sudan’s civil war, with the country’s armed forces increasingly using them to spot rival forces and direct artillery fire, Reuters reports.
Sudan has reportedly acquired Iranian-made drones in recent months, but it denies obtaining “any weapons from Iran” – though flight tracking records from December and January show an Iranian cargo airline making repeated trips between Iran and an important hub for the Sudanese army.
Iran’s arms industry flexes its muscles. “Iran's involvement in Sudan is part of its broader strategy for expanding its presence in the Red Sea, building off of its success in supporting and building up the Houthis,” says Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at Eurasia Group.
“Iran also sees Sudan's embattled government as a potential ally, one that it can cultivate through arms deals and drone sales,” Brew adds, which tracks with Tehran’s broader strategy of exploiting conflicts to its advantage.
Beyond Sudan, Iranian drones have played a central role in the Ukraine war, with Russia repeatedly using them to strike civilian targets and vital energy infrastructure. “Iran has built up its arms exports bona fides through its sales to Russia, and it now sees new customers all across the globe,” says Brew.
Among other things, arms sales are also just a way for Iran to make money.
How Ukrainians learn to pilot kamikaze drones that destroy tanks
First-person view (FPV) drones are cheap and effective on the battlefield in Ukraine, but the army urgently needs to train pilots how to fly them.
Over two years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with ammo running low and ongoing military aid from the West at risk of drying up completely, the Ukrainian army is turning to a small piece of technology that’s having a surprisingly big impact on the battlefield: first person view (FPV drones), Alex Kliment reports for GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.
Originally invented for drone racing, FPVs have cameras that transmit what they “see” in real time to a pilot wearing goggles on the ground. FPVs are fast, hard to track and target, fit into spaces traditional artillery can’t, and can be fitted with explosives to use in kamaze-style attacks. Most importantly, they only cost around $500.
The biggest hurdle to scaling up Ukraine’s use of FPV drones is that they’re really hard to fly. So schools are opening nationwide to teach soldiers how to fly and incorporate them into battlefield tactics. Last fall, Adnan “Audi” Rana, a former marine who runs a non-profit called Aerial Relief Group, visited a drone school on the outskirts of Kyiv to check out the training program and see first-hand how well Ukraine’s efforts to incorporate the technology into its military is going. He found a DIY, ad-hoc effort run entirely by volunteers representing Ukraine’s best chance of holding back Russian troops until fresh military aid arrives from the West.
Watch full episode: Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Ukraine drone attacks on Moscow imply they don't fear Russian response ›
- Israel, Iran, and the metastasizing war in Ukraine ›
- More drone strikes on Moscow ›
- Ukraine shows success with long-range drone attacks against Russia ›
- Tiny drones in Ukraine are destroying tanks ›
- The future of war: James Stavridis on China, Russia, and the biggest security threats to the US - GZERO Media ›
Is building warships still worth it?
The Ukrainian military said Tuesday it had sunk yet another Russian warship in the Black Sea, this time the patrol ship Sergey Kotov. Kyiv has already put nearly a third of Moscow’s Black Sea fleet on the ocean floor, and they’ve done it by relying heavily on drones. Not just the airborne ones you’ve heard plenty about but also unmanned waterborne drones. These deadly and relatively inexpensive weapons have helped Ukraine to even the seascape against a much larger enemy.
Consider that the cutting-edge Sergey Kotov was worth roughly $65 million. The Jet Ski-powered MAGURA V5 kamikaze drone that destroyed it cost about $250,000. You do the math. In less than a year, these drones had knocked off a missile corvette and two landing ships.
The historical irony. During the Crimean War of 1854-1856, Russia was the power using a new technology called the “torpedo” to harry the British fleet.
The future challenge. Navies around the world have some questions to answer. A cutting-edge US aircraft carrier costs $13 billion, and then you gotta buy the planes. If an enemy can sink it for the price of a modest condo in Phoenix … would you ever deploy it?
Ukraine’s AI battlefield
Saturday marks the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Over the course of this bloody war, the Ukrainian defense strategy has grown to a full embrace of cutting-edge artificial intelligence. Ukraine has been described as a “living lab for AI warfare.”
That capability comes largely from the American government but also from American industry. With the help of powerful American tech companies such as Palantir and Clearview AI, Ukraine has deployed AI throughout its military operations. The biggest tech companies have been involved, too; Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Elon Musk’s Starlink have also provided vital tech to aid Ukraine’s war effort.
Ukraine is using AI to analyze large data sets stemming from satellite imagery, social media, and drone footage, but also supercharging its geospatial intelligence and electronic warfare efforts. AI-powered facial recognition and other imagery technology has been instrumental in identifying Russian soldiers, collecting evidence of war crimes, as well as locating land mines.
And increasingly, weapons are also powered by AI. According to a new report from Bloomberg, US and UK leaders are providing AI-powered drones to Ukraine, which would fly in large fleets, coordinating with one another to identify and take out Russian targets. There is no shortage of ethical concerns about the nature of AI-powered warfare, as we have written about in the past, but that hasn’t stymied President Joe Biden’s commitment to beating back Vladimir Putin and defending a strategically crucial ally.
Reports about Russia’s own use of AI in warfare are murkier, though there’s some evidence to suggest they may be using the technology to fuel disinformation campaigns as well as build weaponry. But Ukraine might have an advantage: Recently, Russia’s fancy new AI-powered drone-killing system was reportedly blown up by, of all things, a Ukrainian drone.
Ukraine’s stand against Russia has been called a David and Goliath story, but it’s also a battle evened by technological prowess. It’s a view into the future of warfare, where the full strength of Silicon Valley and the US military-industrial complex meet.Hard Numbers: Russian drones, Malagasy election, Ireland's clashes, China's illnesses, breakaway iceberg
75: Russia launched its biggest-ever drone attack on Kyiv on Saturday, firing 75 Iranian-made Shahed drones at the Ukrainian capital, and all but one were shot down. President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the attack, noting that it came on the commemoration of the 1932-1933 Holodomor famine, engineered by Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, which killed several million Ukrainians.
58.9: Madagascar’s incumbent President Andry Rajoelina is poised for a new term in office after garnering 58.9% of the vote in last week’s elections. Only 46% of voters cast a ballot after 10 of 12 rival parties refused to campaign and called for a boycott. They now refuse to recognize the results, which have to be formally validated by the country’s constitutional court.
34: Thirty-four people have been arrested in Dublin, Ireland, following clashes between right-wing protesters and police that saw widespread looting and rioting. The violence erupted after a man, who was falsely described as a foreign national, was taken into custody following last Thursday's stabbing of three schoolchildren outside a primary school.
13,000: Videos of Chinese hospitals overflowing with parents and children have circulated on social media. Beijing Children’s Hospital was admitting 7,000 patients daily as of late last week, and the largest pediatric hospital in Tianjin broke a record on Saturday, receiving more than 13,000 children. China told the World Health Organization the surge is due to the relaxing of COVID-19 restrictions and an increase in COVID-19, influenza, mycoplasma pneumoniae, and respiratory syncytial virus, not a novel virus.
1,500: One of the world’s largest icebergs is drifting beyond Antarctic waters after being grounded for more than three decades, according to the British Antarctic Survey. The iceberg is three times as large as New York City and over twice as big as Greater London, measuring around 1,500 square miles.Robots are coming to a battlefield near you
Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing everything – from education, health care, and banking, to how we wage war. By simplifying military tasks, improving intelligence-gathering, and fine-tuning weapons accuracy — all of which could make wars less deadly – AI is redefining our concept of modern military might.
At its most basic level, militaries around the world are harnessing AI to train algorithms that can make their work faster and more effective. Today, it is used for image recognition, cyber warfare, strategic planning, logistics, bomb disposal, command and control, and more.
But there’s also plenty of debate over whether this could lead to killer robots and an apocalyptic endgame. Science fiction offers plenty of images of this – from Isaac Asimov’s rogue robots, the “Terminator” and Skynet, to Matthew Broderick racing to stop a supercomputer from unleashing nukes in “War Games.” Can we have less deadly wars without robots taking over the world?
Much of the concern about the future centers on lethal autonomous weapons, aka LAWs or killer robots, which are military tools that can target and engage in combat without human intervention. The weapons can be programmed to seek and destroy without a human steering them. LAWs could eventually become commonplace in war, and while critics have long campaigned to ban them and halt their development, militaries around the globe are exploring and testing this technology.
The US military, for example, is reportedly using an AI-powered quadcopter in operations, and early this year, the Air Force gave AI the controls of an F-16 for 17 hours.
During the first AUKUS AI and autonomy trial this spring, the UK tested a collaborative swarm of drones, which were able to detect and track military targets. And the US has reportedly developed a “pilotless” XQ-58A Valkyrie drone it hopes will “become a potent supplement to its fleet of traditional fighter jets, giving human pilots a swarm of highly capable robot wingmen to deploy in battle.” While the AI will help identify the targets, humans will still need to sign off before they shoot – at least for now.
Samuel Bresnick, a research fellow at Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology, says the potential uses of AI permeate all aspects of the military. AI can help the military “sift through huge amounts of information and pick out patterns,” he says, and this is already happening across the military’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems.
AI can also be used for advanced image recognition to aid military targeting. “For example, if the US has millions of hours of drone footage from the wars in the Middle East,” he says, “[they] can use that as training data for AI algorithms.”
AI can also help militaries plan hypersonic or ballistic missile trajectories — China reportedly used AI to develop a defensive system to detect such missiles.
There are innumerable other uses too, such as advancing cyber-espionage efforts and simplifying command-and-control decision-making, but the way militaries use AI is already garnering pushback and concern. Just last week, a group of 200 people working in AI signed an open letter condemning Israel’s use of “AI-driven technologies for warmaking, in which the aim is to make the loss of human life more efficient.”
World leaders like US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are likewise concerned about the global adoption of AI-infused military tech, but that’s not slowing down their own efforts to gear up and gain a strategic advantage over one another.
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As the US ramps up its military capabilities, it is doing so as part of an AI arms race with China.
Last week, Biden and Xi met at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco, where they talked about artificial intelligence (among other things). The two world leaders “agreed to a dialogue to keep the [AI] from being deployed in ways that could destabilize global security.”
As AI becomes increasingly intertwined with their countries’ military ambitions and capabilities, Biden and Xi appear interested in keeping one another in check but are not in any rush to sign agreements that would prevent themselves from gaining a technological advantage over the other. “Both of these militaries want desperately to develop these technologies because they think it’s going to be the next revolution in military affairs,” Bresnick said. “Neither one is going to want to tie their hands.”
Justin Sherman, a senior fellow at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy and founder of Global Cyber Strategies, said he is concerned that AI could become the center of an arms race with no known endpoint.
“Thinking of it as a race …could potentially lead the US more toward an approach where AI systems are being built that really, as a democracy, it should not be building — or should be more cautious about building — but [they] are being built out of this fear that a foreign state might do what we do not,” Sherman said.
But with AI being a large suite of technologies, and one that’s evolving incredibly quickly, there’s no way to know where the race actually ends.
As AI plays an increasing role in the military destinies of both countries, Sherman says, there’s a risk of “the US and China constantly trying to one-up each other in the latest and greatest, and the most lethal technology just becomes more and more dangerous over time.”