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Hard Numbers: US and Mexico reach water deal, Russia and Ukraine smash drone records, US students look abroad after Trump win, Indonesia’s new president walks non-aligned line, Haiti's interim leader fired
18: After 18 months of talks, the US and Mexico announced on Saturday that they have reached a new water-sharing agreement. The accord revises and makes more flexible a decades-old pact under which Mexico provides water from the Rio Grande to the US Southwest in exchange for water from the Colorado River. The breakthrough comes amid growing concerns about water scarcity on both sides of the border. (For more on the complicated (geo)politics of the Colorado River, see our report here).
84 and 145: Russia and Ukraine each launched their largest drone attacks ever against the other side this weekend. Moscow said it intercepted at least 84 Ukrainian drones, at least 34 of which were aimed at the capital city itself, while Kyiv said Russia had launched at least 145 unmanned craft of its own. Both sides said they shot down the majority of the other’s drones. The barrages come as both sides try to game out the impact of Trump 2.0, with the president-elect having pledged to end the war in “24 hours” when he returns to office.
500: The number of US students seeking to study abroad has spiked in the days since Donald Trump won the presidential election. A leading provider of information on foreign education opportunities reported that average inquiries jumped nearly 500% to 11,000 a day since last Tuesday night. College students were one of the few demographics that overwhelmingly supported Kamala Harris, with polls showing more than 70% favoring the vice president.
10 billion: Indonesia’s new president hailed cooperation with China, signing $10 billion in new business and security deals with the country at a forum in Beijing on Sunday. Prabowo Subianto, a former army general and businessman who took office last month, has praised China’s emergence as a “civilizational power” but also said Indonesia would remain “non-aligned.” His first trip abroad as president will take him from Beijing to Washington, DC, and then to South America and the UK.
6: Haiti’s interim Prime Minister Garry Conillewas fired on Sunday after just six months on the job. The country’s transitional council, established to restore democratic order amid increasing gang violence, signed a decree to dismiss Conille, replacing him with businessman Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, the former president of Haiti’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry. The decree is set to be published on Monday.
An FPV drone with an attached portable grenade launcher is seen during a test flight conducted by Ukrainian servicemen of the 'Bulava' Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Unit of the Separate Presidential Brigade at their position near a frontline, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, on Oct. 11, 2024.
Ukraine deploys AI-powered drones against Russia
Instead, these new drones use software from the Ukrainian company NORDA Dynamics, which uses computer vision — a type of artificial intelligence technology — to direct the drones to their targets. An unnamed Ukrainian official told Reuters this summer that the hit rates of manually controlled drones had fallen to 30–50%, and predicted at the time that the new drones could achieve 80% hit rates if successful.
Russia and Ukraine are racing toward automating their militaries — and sometimes that means drones vs. drones. For instance, the Ukrainian military is using drones to take down Russian camera reconnaissance drones that help Russian forces identify targets on the ground in Ukraine. The Washington Post has also reported that Russian drones have indiscriminately targeted civilians in the Ukrainian city of Kherson. It’s unclear whether Ukraine’s new drones can down these exact drones yet, but it’s clear that the two warring countries are already engaged in a drone-on-drone war.
The future of modern warfare
Technology in Ukraine is transforming the battlefield in real time. How will it change the US national security strategy? And could what's happening in Ukraine shift China’s President Xi Jinping’s future plans in Taiwan? Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stravridis joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to talk about how technology is creating a “new triad” of warfare, i.e., unmanned systems, cyber and artificial intelligence, and special forces.
Modern conflict no longer requires huge standing armies to fight effectively; just look at Ukraine’s success in the Black Sea. Smaller militaries are increasingly using drones, satellites, and unmanned systems against larger armies. Stavridis says Taiwan is a “resistance fighter’s dream” because of its geography and resources. Plus, it manufactures about half of the world’s computer chips, which China relies on for its technology infrastructure. But Stavridis also warns the same technology is empowering malefactors and terrorist groups, creating dangerous asymmetrical warfare.
“The US will continue to be the preeminent nation at projecting power. China will make a play to do it. Russia, the lights are going to go out,” the Admiral says, “But it’s acts of terrorism and the ability to use weapons of mass disruption, that’s what you need to worry about.”
For more on technology and the transformation of war, check out Admiral Stavridis’ book "2054: A Novel". His newest book, "The Restless Wave", a historical novel about the rise of new technology in the Pacific during WWII, is out October 8.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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A local resident reacts next to a residential building damaged by a Russian missile strike in the village of Novohupalivka, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine August 26, 2024.
Russia hammers Ukraine with massive airstrike
Ukrainians endured a brutal barrage of drone and missile strikes targeting Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine on Monday. The attacks killed at least three people, wounded at least 13, and cut off electricity in parts of the country. One of those killed, Ryan Evans, was a 38-year-old British veteran security adviser working with Reuters, and two other members of the team had to be hospitalized, one with serious injuries.
Sadly, Ukrainians are accustomed to waking up to air raid sirens and no electricity. Regional officials swiftly moved to open “points of invincibility,” essentially shelters that can keep people safe from the bombs and also offer a chance to charge electronics and have a snack.
The big picture: Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory near Kursk has spooked Moscow, which is struggling to push them back. Ukrainians have also launched daring drone raids deep into Russia, even targeting Moscow. Russia means to remind Ukraine it can still cause immense disruption with its long-range missiles.
And in the south, Russian forces are steadily advancing on the key town of Pokrovsk, forcing civilians to evacuate. Taking the city would secure key roads Moscow needs to secure the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a priority.Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visits an exhibit during a ceremony celebrating the achievements of the country's defense industry in Tehran on August 22, 2023.
Is Iran sending drones to Sudan?
Iranian drones are playing a game-changing role in Sudan’s civil war, with the country’s armed forces increasingly using them to spot rival forces and direct artillery fire, Reuters reports.
Sudan has reportedly acquired Iranian-made drones in recent months, but it denies obtaining “any weapons from Iran” – though flight tracking records from December and January show an Iranian cargo airline making repeated trips between Iran and an important hub for the Sudanese army.
Iran’s arms industry flexes its muscles. “Iran's involvement in Sudan is part of its broader strategy for expanding its presence in the Red Sea, building off of its success in supporting and building up the Houthis,” says Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at Eurasia Group.
“Iran also sees Sudan's embattled government as a potential ally, one that it can cultivate through arms deals and drone sales,” Brew adds, which tracks with Tehran’s broader strategy of exploiting conflicts to its advantage.
Beyond Sudan, Iranian drones have played a central role in the Ukraine war, with Russia repeatedly using them to strike civilian targets and vital energy infrastructure. “Iran has built up its arms exports bona fides through its sales to Russia, and it now sees new customers all across the globe,” says Brew.
Among other things, arms sales are also just a way for Iran to make money.
How Ukrainians learn to pilot kamikaze drones that destroy tanks
First-person view (FPV) drones are cheap and effective on the battlefield in Ukraine, but the army urgently needs to train pilots how to fly them.
Over two years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with ammo running low and ongoing military aid from the West at risk of drying up completely, the Ukrainian army is turning to a small piece of technology that’s having a surprisingly big impact on the battlefield: first person view (FPV drones), Alex Kliment reports for GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.
Originally invented for drone racing, FPVs have cameras that transmit what they “see” in real time to a pilot wearing goggles on the ground. FPVs are fast, hard to track and target, fit into spaces traditional artillery can’t, and can be fitted with explosives to use in kamaze-style attacks. Most importantly, they only cost around $500.
The biggest hurdle to scaling up Ukraine’s use of FPV drones is that they’re really hard to fly. So schools are opening nationwide to teach soldiers how to fly and incorporate them into battlefield tactics. Last fall, Adnan “Audi” Rana, a former marine who runs a non-profit called Aerial Relief Group, visited a drone school on the outskirts of Kyiv to check out the training program and see first-hand how well Ukraine’s efforts to incorporate the technology into its military is going. He found a DIY, ad-hoc effort run entirely by volunteers representing Ukraine’s best chance of holding back Russian troops until fresh military aid arrives from the West.
Watch full episode: Solving Europe's energy crisis with Norway's power
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week online and on US public television. Check local listings.
- Ukraine drone attacks on Moscow imply they don't fear Russian response ›
- Israel, Iran, and the metastasizing war in Ukraine ›
- More drone strikes on Moscow ›
- Ukraine shows success with long-range drone attacks against Russia ›
- Tiny drones in Ukraine are destroying tanks ›
- The future of war: James Stavridis on China, Russia, and the biggest security threats to the US - GZERO Media ›
Handout footage shows smoke rising from what Ukrainian military intelligence said is the Russian Black Sea Fleet patrol ship Sergey Kotov that was damaged by Ukrainian sea drones, at sea, at a location given as off the coast of Crimea, in this still image obtained from a video released on March 5, 2024.
Is building warships still worth it?
The Ukrainian military said Tuesday it had sunk yet another Russian warship in the Black Sea, this time the patrol ship Sergey Kotov. Kyiv has already put nearly a third of Moscow’s Black Sea fleet on the ocean floor, and they’ve done it by relying heavily on drones. Not just the airborne ones you’ve heard plenty about but also unmanned waterborne drones. These deadly and relatively inexpensive weapons have helped Ukraine to even the seascape against a much larger enemy.
Consider that the cutting-edge Sergey Kotov was worth roughly $65 million. The Jet Ski-powered MAGURA V5 kamikaze drone that destroyed it cost about $250,000. You do the math. In less than a year, these drones had knocked off a missile corvette and two landing ships.
The historical irony. During the Crimean War of 1854-1856, Russia was the power using a new technology called the “torpedo” to harry the British fleet.
The future challenge. Navies around the world have some questions to answer. A cutting-edge US aircraft carrier costs $13 billion, and then you gotta buy the planes. If an enemy can sink it for the price of a modest condo in Phoenix … would you ever deploy it?
Ukraine’s AI battlefield
Saturday marks the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Over the course of this bloody war, the Ukrainian defense strategy has grown to a full embrace of cutting-edge artificial intelligence. Ukraine has been described as a “living lab for AI warfare.”
That capability comes largely from the American government but also from American industry. With the help of powerful American tech companies such as Palantir and Clearview AI, Ukraine has deployed AI throughout its military operations. The biggest tech companies have been involved, too; Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Elon Musk’s Starlink have also provided vital tech to aid Ukraine’s war effort.
Ukraine is using AI to analyze large data sets stemming from satellite imagery, social media, and drone footage, but also supercharging its geospatial intelligence and electronic warfare efforts. AI-powered facial recognition and other imagery technology has been instrumental in identifying Russian soldiers, collecting evidence of war crimes, as well as locating land mines.
And increasingly, weapons are also powered by AI. According to a new report from Bloomberg, US and UK leaders are providing AI-powered drones to Ukraine, which would fly in large fleets, coordinating with one another to identify and take out Russian targets. There is no shortage of ethical concerns about the nature of AI-powered warfare, as we have written about in the past, but that hasn’t stymied President Joe Biden’s commitment to beating back Vladimir Putin and defending a strategically crucial ally.
Reports about Russia’s own use of AI in warfare are murkier, though there’s some evidence to suggest they may be using the technology to fuel disinformation campaigns as well as build weaponry. But Ukraine might have an advantage: Recently, Russia’s fancy new AI-powered drone-killing system was reportedly blown up by, of all things, a Ukrainian drone.
Ukraine’s stand against Russia has been called a David and Goliath story, but it’s also a battle evened by technological prowess. It’s a view into the future of warfare, where the full strength of Silicon Valley and the US military-industrial complex meet.