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Mexico City’s Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum poses for a picture during an interview with Reuters in Mexico City, Mexico September 22, 2022.
Mexico’s first female president takes the reins
Claudia Sheinbaum will be sworn in as Mexico’s first female president — and first of Jewish heritage — on Tuesday, succeeding the wildly popular Andres Manuel López Obrador, whose shadow hangs heavily over the prospects for her administration. She won the June election with 60% of the vote, but as much as the people may support her, the left-leaning populist agenda she has promised to continue pursuing doesn’t always sit right with the investors the Mexican economy needs.
World leaders will be in attendance, including presidents of Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Cuba and Guatemala, and a large US delegation led by first lady Jill Biden. However, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will send his deputy prime minister in his place, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose invitation stirred controversy, will not attend. Argentinian President Javier Milei is also likely to skip, given his ideological opposition to Sheinbaum and AMLO’s left-wing ambitions.
After the celebrations, Sheinbaum has plenty on her plate. Far too many Mexicans face severe threats to their personal and communal safety from drug violence and corruption. Eurasia Group analyst Matias Gomez-Leauteaud says he’s watching how the new president addresses security in her inaugural speech, but such long-term goals may stay on the back burner for the moment.
“There are two key decisions for her in the short term, both related to economic policy: The 2025 budget, which must be presented at the latest on Nov. 15, and her selection of a new central bank deputy governor," he says. We’re watching whether Sheinbaum’s decisions can halt the slide of Mexico’s peso, which has fallen 14% against the dollar since she was elected.Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa looks on as his wife Lavinia Valbonesi (not pictured) takes part in a referendum that asks voters to support mostly security-related questions to fight rising violence, in Guayaquil, Ecuador April 21, 2024.
Ecuador votes to get tough on drugs
Ecuadorians showed overwhelming support for a government crackdown on drug-related violence in referendums this weekend in what could become a regional trend. Quito won support for joint police-military patrols, extradition of wanted criminals, tighter gun control, and tougher punishments for murder and drug trafficking, among other measures.
Cocaine boom: Ecuador had long maintained a reputation for tranquility despite being sandwiched between the major cocaine production hubs of Colombia and Peru. Coke is in the midst of a major resurgence, according to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime, with seven straight years of growing use.
Consequently, traffickers are trying to ship more blow than ever to the US, and increasingly doing so through Ecuador’s conveniently located ports. With the drugs come weapons, money, and violence, tearing at the social fabric. In August of last year, presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated after receiving death threats from gang leader Jose Adolfo Macias, who later escaped prison.
Iron fist: Ecuador is far from alone in experiencing a surge in drug violence, and leaders in Latin America are looking at Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s “mano dura” (iron fist) crackdown as an example.
“Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa took from the Bukele playbook in realizing that citizens are open to more draconian type measures,” says Eurasia Group associate Yael Sternberg, though she emphasized that the actual policies and problems are different.
If it pays off for Noboa like it has for Bukele, Sternberg says Chile is the country to watch next, with a growing crime issue and elections next year.