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Graphic Truth: Iran has a rial big problem
Iran’s Supreme Leader faces a number of challenges in the wake of the devastating 12-day war with Israel, and the perennial weakness of Iran’s economy is chief among them. Economic mismanagement, corruption, and strict Western sanctions have sapped output, weakened the currency and contributed to high inflation for years. But the recent spike in tensions with the US and Israel has accelerated the collapse of the Iranian rial, which has halved in value against the dollar since the end of last year. Here is a look at how the Iranian Rial has performed against the greenback since 2022.
Where middle class growth and small business meet
Listen: Small businesses are more than just corner shops and local services. They’re a driving force of economic growth, making up 90% of all businesses globally. As the global middle class rapidly expands, new opportunities are emerging for entrepreneurs to launch and grow small businesses.
In the first episode of “Local to global: The power of small business”, host JJ Ramberg sits down with Shamina Singh, Founder and President of the Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth, and Homi Kharas, Senior Fellow at Brookings Institution and Co-Founder of the World Data Lab. Together, they explore how the spending power of the global middle class is fueling small business growth from Taipei to Toronto and beyond.
The discussion also highlights how digital inclusion, access to finance, and cybersecurity are essential for small business success.
“Local to global: The power of small business” is a new podcast series from GZERO Media's Blue Circle Studios and Mastercard, where we'll look behind the curtain to explore the world of small businesses and why they’re positioned to play an even bigger role in the future of the global economy.
US Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. arrives at Argentina’s Ministry of Health to meet with Health Minister Mario Lugones in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on May 26, 2025.
Hard Numbers: RFK cancels bird-flu vaccine, US GDP shrinks, Sky-high paraglide, and more
600 million: The Trump administration canceled a $600 million Moderna contract to develop a bird-flu vaccine, and simultaneously ended a Biden-era deal with the pharmaceutical giant aimed at pandemic preparedness. The move also forfeited priority access to doses, and follows ongoing scrutiny of mRNA technology by Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
-0.2: US GDP contracted by an annualized rate of 0.2% in Q1 of 2025, marking the first decline since 2022. The drop followed 2.4% annualized growth in Q4 2024. Q1 stats were skewed, though, by a spike in imports from incoming tariff fears, without matching increases in inventories or consumer spending.
3: The US and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation opened a third aid site Thursday, with more planned as crowds of Palestinians seeking assistance strain the system.
26,000: Chinese paraglider Peng Yujiang was testing his equipment on the ground when a gust of wind swept him over 26,000 feet in the air — nearly the height of Mount Everest and in line with airplane flight paths. There, he endured -31°F temperatures and briefly lost consciousness. Since his accidental flight was unregistered, China will not record any breaking of world records and has banned him from flying for six months.
Graphic Truth: The rise of foreign students, and their fees, in the United States
Using several different avenues, the Trump administration is threatening to severely restrict the number of foreign students: It paused interviews for those applying for student visas, tried to block Harvard from accepting international candidates, and even said that it will revoke visas from certain Chinese students.
This Graphic Truth shows the exponential rise of international students in the United States in the postwar period, as well as the fees they are estimated to pay each year (international students do not benefit from in-state tuition at public schools, so often pay private-school-sized fees whichever university they attend; a minority of universities offer some financial aid to international students). This rise means foreign students now contribute tens of billions to the US economy, but the White House’s actions may send this number tumbling.
Trump’s ‘less is more’ message is un-American
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: I wanted to spend a few moments talking about a quote I heard from Trump this weekend. Did an interview where he said, "I don't think a beautiful baby girl that's 11 years old needs to have 30 dolls. I think she can have three dolls or four dolls. They don't need to have 250 pencils, they can have five." And my immediate thought was, this is one of the most anti-American things I have ever heard a US president say. I was very surprised by it, honestly. I heard back from a lot of folks and they said, "Well, how about when Trump in the same interview said that he wasn't sure about upholding the constitution? Isn't that worse?" And I'm like, well, yeah, maybe it's worse, but it's not more anti-American. I mean, not knowing how the constitution works or claiming you don't know how the constitution works, that may be bad, but it's not anti-American. But saying we shouldn't be able to buy and have all the stuff we want, that's anti-American.
We Americans want maximum stuff. I remember growing up with George Carlin, you needed places to put your stuff. When you ran out of places to put your stuff, you had a garage so that you could put your stuff there so that you could go out and buy more stuff. This isn't new. We've had this for a very long time, and this is Trump's in, right? He puts his name on planes and buildings. It's not about less but better high quality stuff. That's other countries. Japan does less amount of stuff, but very, very high quality. Takes decades to make that kind of stuff. Artisans spend their entire lives sort of on one carving or one piece of chocolate. No, we don't do that. We are a country of 250 breakfast cereals in the cereal aisle, and that's separate from granola. I'm just talking about cereal.
This is Trump's id. This is the guy that has turned the Oval Office into Versailles because there wasn't enough gold plating, gold gilding. Nobody reflects the supremacy of American consumption better than Donald Trump. Trump steaks. Trump watches. Trump gold sneakers. Trump coin. More stuff. And look, when he said beautiful baby girls have dolls, that's on brand, right? No question. Not boys. Boys can't have dolls. Boys have action figures which are basically dolls, but they sound tougher, and they should ideally have guns or pencils. Boys can have pencils. For me, Tonka truck, right? Maybe he didn't have time to think of a Tonka truck. It was a live interview, but a Tonka yellow dump truck. That was my favorite toy without question as a beautiful baby boy of 11 years old growing up. But either way, the point is not that an 11-year-old beautiful baby girl needs 11 or 20 or 30 dolls, but what if they want 30 dolls?
And God forbid that dad before 'Liberation Day' couldn't afford 30 dolls, but could only afford three dolls. What do you do then? Now, that girl only gets a third of a doll, right? Which part of the doll then? Just the head. I guess just the head. Because then at least you can keep an imaginary conversation going on with the doll. You don't want just the feet. And by the way, Zuckerberg I think can help with that since he's all about AI so that Americans who don't have as many friends as the average American wants to have can have that many friends. Now, that's super dystopian, but it's not anti-American. That's American. If we can't have as many friends as we want, we should be able to buy those friends, even if they're not real people. That's American. So look, Trump isn't actually saying we can't have 30 dolls, but Trump is saying it's going to take time with all the tariffs that we have to be patient.
And look, patience is anti-American. You don't elect Trump if you're patient. You elect Trump because you want stuff now. What, is Trump now going to say that America's going to embrace the slow food movement? That's not American. Trump's the guy that won the election after serving at McDonald's, right? And by the way, not serving at the counter, but serving at the drive-thru because it's not enough to have fast food, but you have to fast food even faster than you would normally have fast food by going into the restaurant. Trump is the guy that made RFK Jr. eat McDonald's on the Trump plane. Trump's the guy that brought hundreds of thousands of calories of McDonald's for that football team when they visited the White House, when we may have some of the world's highest levels of obesity. But if you just give us a minute, we will also have the world's highest consumption of Ozempic. Mr. President, make America great again. Thank you.
Carney to meet Trump: Not time to talk turkey – yet
The White House wants to deal with Asian countries before it gets around to USMCA, the trade agreement governing trade with Canada and Mexico.
“It makes sense to separate out Canada and Mexico from the rest because they are going to want to redo the USMCA,” a source close to the White House told Politico. “They’re going to have separate tariffs that focus specifically on Mexico and Canada, and they’re going to take some actions to squeeze them a little bit.”
A delay might also suit Carney. A former central banker, Carney became prime minister in March but almost immediately went to the polls to get a democratic mandate. Canadian politics has been thoroughly disrupted since Trump started issuing tariff threats before his inauguration in January. Carney could benefit from a period of calm in which he can consult with other politicians, business, and labor to figure out the best strategy to take to USMCA renegotiations and try to soothe the anger in the oil-rich Prairies, where voters were hoping for a Conservative government.
Ultimately, Trump’s willingness to engage in trade negotiations may be driven by broader economic concerns, and he may be motivated to make some deals if it helps turn the economy around. Official numbers released Wednesday show the economy shrank in the first quarter, likely as a result of Trump’s tariffs.
A 3D-printed miniature model depicting US President Donald Trump, the Chinese flag, and the word "tariffs" in this illustration taken on April 17, 2025.
US and China limp toward trade war thaw
In the three months before US President Donald Trump dropped widespread tariffs on April 2, aka “Liberation Day,” the American economy contracted 0.3% at an annualized rate, a sharp drop from the 2.4% annualized rise in the final quarter of 2024. Economists were already worried that a recession was looming, and now the world’s largest economy is heading in that direction.
“The true disruptive effects are only beginning to be felt and will start playing out over the ensuing quarters,” says Robert Kahn, Eurasia Group’s managing director of Global Macro.
It’s not me, it’s you. Last year, Trump tried to take credit for the booming stock market, even though he was not in power. He inverted the argument on Wednesday, pinning the blame for the struggling economy on his predecessor, Joe Biden, while urging Americans to “BE PATIENT!!!” Though the midterm elections are still 18 months away, Trump’s pleas for patience show he’s wary of the political effects of a receding economy.
“Today’s data are a reminder that the political costs of a recession are going to be broad-based and significant,” Kahn added.
They’re not the only ones. China, the object of Trump’s tariff ire, also faces an economic slowdown. Chinese factories saw their sharpest monthly slowdown in over a year, per the National Bureau of Statistics, after the US president raised levies on their products to 145%. Beijing released a video on Tuesday reiterating that it “won’t kneel down to Trump,” an apparent signal that the trade war won’t end soon.
Actions speak louder than words. Despite the rhetoric, China is tempering some of its retaliatory measures. It created a list of US-made goods that will be exempt from its 125% counter-tariff. It’s not clear which products will be on this “whitelist,” but China has already spared the imports of microchips and aircraft engines – among other items – from its list. The White House has also made exceptions for Chinese imports three weeks ago, allowing smartphones and other tech devices to enter the United States with just a 20% tariff, and Trump predicted on Tuesday that he’d strike a trade deal with China.
A “painful truce,” as Kahn put it, may be inbound.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks in the small hours of April 29, 2025, in Ottawa after his Liberal Party won the general election the previous day.
Mark Carney leads Canada’s Liberals to victory
The Liberals have won the battle to lead Canada. On Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s party completed a stunning turnaround, with projections showing it secured 168 of 343 parliamentary seats.
Just months ago, with Justin Trudeau at the helm, the Liberals — who have been in power for a decade — were underwater in the polls, down as far as 25 points compared to the Conservatives. But Carney, Conservative Pierre Poilievre, and New Democrat Jagmeet Singh all had a mutual opponent in Donald Trump, and a surge in Canadian nationalism helped flip the momentum for the Liberals. The US president’s trade war and threats of using “economic force” to push Canada into becoming the “51st state” fueled much of the “Canada Strong” and “Restore the Promise of Canada” campaign promises of the Liberals and Conservatives, respectively.
A closer race than expected. The Liberals and Conservatives both gained seats compared to the last race in 2021. Led by Poilievre – who notably lost his seat in Ottawa – the Conservatives did better than many predicted, winning roughly 42% of the vote share and at least 144 seats. But the New Democratic Party and Bloc Québécois (which only runs candidates in Quebec) saw their parties lose seats. The NDP secured only seven ridings, down from 25, while the BQ won 23 ridings compared to 32 the last time. Despite losing in his riding, Poilievre has said he will stay on as opposition leader, while Singh has resigned as party leader in the wake of Monday’s crushing results for the NDP.
With the Liberals coming up just shy of the 172 ridings needed for a majority government, they can forge a coalition with the NDP, Bloc Québécois, or the Green Party, or they can go it alone and simply seek votes from other parties on an as-needed basis, issue by issue. Historically, the NDP has collaborated with the Liberals in confidence-and-supply agreements, while the BQ has focused on one-off support for specific issues.
In his victory speech, Carney focused on unity. “Let’s put an end to the division and anger of the past. We are all Canadian and my government will work for and with everyone,” he said.
He also pointed to the job ahead: tackling US-Canada tensions. “When I sit down with President Trump,” Carney said, “it will be to discuss the future economy and security relationship between two sovereign nations.”
“It will be our full knowledge that we have many, many other options to build prosperity for all Canadians.”