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Venezuelans gather to demonstrate during Venezuela's election voting day in Bogota, Colombia, July 28, 2024.
Venezuelans head to the polls as Maduro warns of a “bloodbath”
Venezuelans are voting in make-or-break elections as President Nicolás Madurotrails behind opposition leader Edmundo González by up to 30 percentage points in some polls. González – a retired diplomat who stepped in after the most popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was barred – might be the country’s best chance to restore democracy.
The background: Maduro’s 11 years in power have been marred with economic instability so severe as to cause mass malnutrition, violent political crackdowns, and America’s worst migration crisis in history. Over 7 million Venezuelans have fled repression and starvation since 2015. Maduro, currently under investigation by the ICC for alleged crimes against humanity, has led Venezuela to “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in almost half a century” according to the IMF.
How has he stayed in power? In past elections, Maduro has kept the crown by barring and jailing challengers – and using his thugs to intimidate voters. His actions have been met by US sanctions, and the last election was deemed illegitimate by the US, Canada, and 14 other countries.
Polls show an undeniable truth Maduro seems unwilling to accept: He cannot beat González in a free and fair election. This leaves Maduro – who most analysts presume will resist a peaceful transition of power – two options: mass electoral fraud and political crackdowns or making good on his warnings of a “bloodbath” and “civil war” if he loses. So far at least, the government has not reported any unrest at polling places.
For more on Venezuela’s election, check out GZERO’s Viewpoint interview with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targowhere.Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez and Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado greet supporters during a campaign rally for the presidential election in Valencia, Carabobo State, Venezuela, July 13, 2024.
Meet Venezuela’s Edmundo González
Who isEdmundo González? He’s the opposition candidate with a chance, at least on paper, to unseat strongman President Nicolás Maduro in this weekend’s Venezuelan election. It’s a surprising position for this 74-year-old former diplomat who has never run for office and was virtually unknown to Venezuelans a few months ago. It’s more surprising that polls show him running ahead of Maduro.
But in a sense, Edmundo González is María Corina Machado, who won more than 90% of the vote in an open opposition primary in late October. Maduro-aligned judges on Venezuela’s supreme court then ruled her ineligible for election. After Machado’s first chosen replacement was also banned, she turned to the soft-spoken González, whose deliberately anodyne campaign message is that all Venezuelans must “come together.”
Meanwhile, it’s Machado on the campaign trail working hard to get out the vote while González remains safely on the sidelines. A vote for González is a vote for the popular Machado.
In the end, none of these opposition gymnastics are likely to matter. Maduro will almost certainly rig the election to stay in power, and it appears the military remains on his side. But this weekend’s vote is still one to watch.
For more on this weekend’s election, check out GZERO’s Viewpoint interview with Eurasia Group expert Risa Grais-Targowhere.
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, his wife Cilia Flores, and Vice President of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela Diosdado Cabello participate in a rally during May Day celebrations in Caracas, Venezuela, on May 1, 2024.
Is Venezuela’s election going to be too lopsided to steal?
Until about two weeks ago, Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro looked like he’d managed to sideline the opposition enough to ensure a win in this summer’s presidential election.
His government had disqualified the leading opposition candidate, María Corina Machado. Then, for good measure, it banned her stand-in as well. The familiar specter of division and disorganization hung over the beleaguered opponents of Maduro, who has run Venezuela for more than a decade.
Then the opposition united to name the little-known, 74-year-old former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia as their candidate. González has delegated most of his campaigning to Machado, and his popularity has soared. A poll over the weekend showed he already holds a 40-point lead over Maduro, with 62% of respondents saying they’d vote for him.
The government has already recognized him as a candidate, tarring him as an agent of “imperialism” – but that presents a problem. By moving against him, Maduro could overplay his hand in a country already reeling from economic mismanagement and US sanctions. But facing Gonzalez directly might leave Maduro vulnerable to the one thing a strongman can’t accept: losing.