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File Photo: Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Simon Harris speaks to reporters after meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House in Washington, U.S., October 9, 2024.
Ireland preps for an election sprint
Thankfully, not every election campaign lasts for two years. On Tuesday, Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris said he will call aparliamentary election later this week, and the vote will likely be held on or about Nov. 29.
The timing comes as no surprise. Last month, Harris’ government gave voters a package of tax cuts and new spending that totals more than 10 billion euros, andFine Gael, his center-right party, is now polling in first place. It’s also important thatFianna Fail, his coalition partner, is now polling in second place.
When Irish voters have gone to the polls in recent years, the popularity of Sinn Fein, Ireland’s main opposition and a nationalist party with historic ties to the Irish Republican Army, a terrorist group, has been the focus of poll and election analysis. For now,Sinn Fein is polling in third place, but election campaigns can quickly shake up the political dynamic. In recent years, Sinn Fein’s leadership has played down the issue of reunification with Northern Ireland, part of the United Kingdom, to focus its message instead on economic and healthcare issues.
US Capitol building at in the morning sun. Washington DC, USA The US Capitol building in the early morning at sunrise.
Election Countdown: The 6 congressional races to watch
While eyes around the globe will be on the US presidency this Election Day, there are consequential races further down the ballot that will determine how much power Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will wield. A handful of Senate and House races will decide which party has the power to advance or stymie the next president’s agenda.
Going into election night, 538 forecasters give Republicans a 92% chance of winning the Senate, but experts say the House could be anyone’s game. The Senate is likely to be called on election night, but because of slow counting in California, the results in the House are unlikely to be called before the end of the week at the earliest.
Here are the key races to watch.
Senate
Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority but are facing an almost certain loss in West Virginia. That means that Republicans only need to capture one more race to win the majority. This is a pretty comfortable spot for the GOP to be in. Meanwhile, Democrats rely on dramatically outperforming in the polls or performing miracles and expanding their map by winning states like Texas or Florida.
Thirty-four seats are up for grabs, and 10 races are expected to determine the balance of power: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Nebraska, Maryland, and Texas.
Arizona offers a race of political extremes. Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is stepping down, and progressive Rep. Ruben Gallego and Trump-darling Kari Lake are vying to take her spot. Lake, who lost the governor’s race in 2022 and continues to insist the election was “stolen,” has been encroaching on Gallego’s lead in the polls in recent days. Gallego’s slight edge is being attributed to his popularity among Latino voters, who make up 25% of the electorate.
Michigan, meanwhile, is a competition between centrists. Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring, and mainstream Republican Mike Rogers – a former Trump critic who has since embraced him – is facing outgoing Rep. Elissa Slotkin, who is using her national security background to win over centrists in and around Detroit.
The race has been tied in the final weeks of the election, and some of the biggest issues are reproductive rights and the candidates’ support for electric vehicles – a hot topic in a state that is home to the Big Three auto manufacturers.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic incumbent, is fighting to keep his seat in the solidly red state against Trump-backed Bernie Moreno. Brown has lost what was once a commanding lead in recent weeks and is now polling behind Moreno by one point. The race has drawn $500 million in ad spending, more than any Senate race in history.
Control of the Senate could very well hinge on this state, which has voted twice for Trump and is likely to do so for a third time this year. Brown has held on to power in the past by focusing on local issues and evading questions about national political figures but has suffered from attack ads framing him as being far-left on transgender issues. But Democrats need this state if they have any chance of keeping their majority.
House of Representatives
Control of the House, like everything in this election, is expected to be incredibly close. All 435 seats are on the line, and, likely, whichever party wins control will do so by just a few seats. The Republicans are on the defense and need to control their slim majority, while Democrats need to gain four seats to flip the chamber. Democrat’s lead has declined as the election approached, with their margin slipping to just 0.5 points over the Republicans, down from 2.6 in early September.
New York’s 19th district is one of the most expensive House races in the 2024 election, with Democrats seeing flipping the seat as key to their efforts to regain control of the House. Republican incumbent Marc Molinaro faces a rematch against Democrat Josh Riley in this swing district that stretches across all or parts of the 11 upstate counties. It is expected to be a bellwether for how the parties are performing in the suburbs of New York and New Jersey, where Democrats saw disappointing turnout in the 2022 midterms, which led to them losing the seat.
Molinaro, once known as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, has veered to the right this cycle, with his campaign drawing on fears about immigration and crime, while Riley has focused on abortion and reproductive rights.
Virginia’s 7th district is worth watching because it is expected to be an early bellwether of how the parties are fairing in a mixed district that spans from the DC suburbs to the rural Piedmont region. Republican Derrick Anderson is currently down four points against Democrat Yevgeny “Eugene” Vindman, who led the whistleblower account of the quid-quo-pro phone call between Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky that became the basis of the first impeachment case against Trump.
In Nebraska’s 2nd district, incumbent Republican Don Bacon is currently beating Democrat Tony Vargas by just two points. That's the same margin the GOP won by in 2022, and the Dems have had their eyes on winning it back ever since.
The district is one of 16 Republican-held seats in places that voted for Joe Biden in 2020. It is also known as the “blue dot” because it often sends one of Nebraska’s electoral votes to the Democrats even as the rest of the states’ votes go to Republicans.
Check out more of our recent election coverage:
- Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states
- The 15 counties to watch on election night
- The Disinformation Election: How conspiracy theories are impacting the vote
- How the 2024 presidential election could define the future of the Supreme Court
- Each presidential candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to win the election. As the results come in, keep track of them with our handy map! Download it here
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A photo shows music and entertainment arena facility “Sphere” displays messages of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris prior to the Presidential election in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States of America on October 30, 2024.
The US election: Down to the wire
Welcome to the final sprint of the 2024 US presidential election! As the clock ticks, Democrats are celebrating an Iowa poll that shows Republican candidate Donald Trump trailing Democrat Kamala Harris 44-47 among likely voters in the supposedly safe red state.
The Selzer poll, considered one of the most reliable in the nation, found that women are driving the shift toward Harris in the Hawkeye State. It comes in the wakeof Trump’s promise this week to protect women “whether they like it or not” as well asracist and misogynistic comments by speakers at the Republicans’ Madison Square Garden rally last Sunday that Trump later termeda “lovefest.”
Not to be outdone, Trump managed to hit a new low on Friday,simulating oral sex on a malfunctioning microphone in Milwaukee. On Sunday, he held rallies in three swing states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Meanwhile, Harris appeared on “Saturday Night Live” to lean into her “joyful warrior” persona, mirroring herself against Maya Rudolph, the comedian who famously impersonates her. Offscreen, she made multiple stops in Michigan.
On Monday, the campaigns will make their final efforts to rally voters in key swing states. Trump will hold rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Harris is scheduled to appear in both Philadelphia, where she will be joined byOprah Winfrey, and Pittsburgh. Clearly, we’re all watching Pennsylvania.
Democratic Presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a campaign speech at the Ellipse in Washington, DC, on Tuesday,.
Election Countdown: Kamala Harris pledges unity in Ellipse speech
Kamala Harris made her closing arguments at the Ellipse in Washington, DC, on Tuesday night, where more than 75,000 supporters turned out to support the vice president.
The speech took place where Donald Trump addressed his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, before they stormed the US Capitol.
Huge lines curved through the streets near the White House and Washington Monument as supporters hoped to catch a glimpse of the presidential candidate. Maggie Moetell, 55, a rally attendee from Falls Church, VA, said it was “the most important thing I’ve ever done in my life. This is democracy in the making. It’s history. It’s amazing to see all these people here.”
Harris reminded supporters of Trump’s actions on that fateful day, focusing on the former president’s authoritarian leanings, calling him a “petty tyrant” and “wannabe dictator.”
She contrasted herself to the “chaos” of the first Trump administration and promised to compromise with those who disagreed with her and to work for all Americans. She pledged to preserve Obamacare while cutting taxes for middle-class households. Meanwhile, she warned that Trump’s tariff plan would effectively amount to taxes paid by consumers. Harris also pledged to have Medicare cover home health care for the elderly to help alleviate the burden on sandwich-generation caregivers of both young families and their parents.
Noting that one in three American women live in states with Trump abortion bans in the wake of the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, Harris promised to sign a bill to restore reproductive freedom nationwide.
Sanjana Shashikumar, 24, who moved to Washington, DC, from New York, said she was happy to attend because she has a lot of anxiety about the election. “I really like the idea of being around people who are also voting for Harris.” As an Indian American woman, she said – while noting it wasn’t the primary reason for her support – that “to be able to see an Indian American in that White House would be really, really awesome.” Shashikumar said women’s access to abortion and right to privacy were important to her and that as a nuclear regulatory analyst she cares about renewables and green energy — and is encouraged that Harris is pro-nuclear.
Harris during her speech also acknowledged concerns about border controls and promised to pass the bipartisan border bill that Trump urged Republicans to block. But she also acknowledged that the US is “a nation of immigrants,” and pledged to support legal immigrants.
Brian C, 25, from Maryland, says our allies in Ukraine weigh heavily on his mind, pointing to the decline in bipartisan support for sending US support to Kyiv. “I have so many friends and family in Ukraine,” he said, contending that the US shouldn't "just leave them to be invaded.”
Harris has been criticized on the campaign trail for not addressing her foreign policy plans more fully, but Brian says he’s confident in Harris’ approach to global affairs.
“I will strengthen, not surrender, America’s global leadership,” Harris told the crowd. “And I will stand with our friends because I know our alliances keep American people safe and make America stronger and more secure.”
She said we must ensure that the “US remains, as we must forever be, a champion of liberty around the world.”
Meanwhile, Trump held a rally in majority-Latino Allentown, Pennsylvania, home to 34,000 Puerto Ricans. He asked Pennsylvanians to tell Harris “You’re fired” at the polls, and at a panel earlier in the day said “no president has done more for Puerto Rico than I have.”
The comments and rally come as the Trump campaign tries to walk back racist comments against Puerto Ricans made by comedian Tony Hinchliffe at his Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday. The Center for Puerto Rican Studies at Hunter College estimates that 3.1% of voters in Pennsylvania are Puerto Rican, a key demographic to lose in a swing state that is likely to be decided by just a few thousand votes.
Meanwhile, Harris is trying to “lose by less” in deep-red areas of Pennsylvania by holding events in universities in rural parts of the state.
Barbara Bush, daughter of Republican President George W. Bush, endorsed Harris on Tuesday, joining her father’s former vice president, Dick Cheney, and his daughter, former Congresswoman Liz Cheney, in backing the Democratic nominee for president.
Beyond winning key Republican endorsements, polls are showing that Harris is gaining with Black men, a group that Trump’s campaign has tried hard to court this election cycle. In an NPR poll of younger black men, nearly 60% said they backed Harris.
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., September 18, 2024.
Interest rate cuts are doing their thing. Will more come soon?
Recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, along with lower inflation rates in both countries, are spurring … talk of more cuts. This includes a potential “jumbo” cut this month in Canada.
A former deputy governor of Canada’s central bank is arguing for a half-point cut when the bank meets in late October, and he’s betting on it. Paul Beaudry argues that the economic stimulus would spur the Canadian economy – by boosting consumer and business spending.
Statistics Canada reports that the country’s inflation rate was 2% in August while the US Bureau of Labor Statistics pegged the rate south of the border at 2.5%.
In September, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, its first trim in four years. That had effects on both sides of the border, given how close the US and Canadian economies are linked. Some Canadian mortgage rates on offer ticked down after the cut, dipping below 4%. So too did their US counterparts, triggering an immediate jump in real estate hunting and refinancing.
Experts believe the Fed will embrace more cuts in the coming months, aiming for a target of 4-4.25%, with even lower rates on the docket for 2025. The Fed and Bank of Canada will drive borrowing costs down and offer some relief to consumers and borrowers as both economies continue to level out.Anura Kumara Dissanayake, leader of the National People's Power (NPP) party, gestures after he claimed the victory in the presidential election, in Colombo, Sri Lanka, September 22, 2024.
Sri Lankans reject the Old Guard
Sri Lankan election authorities announced Sunday that Anura Kumara Dissanayake, a Marxist, will become the island’s next president, in a rebuke of the political establishment. Outgoing president Ranil Wickremesinghe congratulated Dissanayake on Sunday and urged him to continue working toward Sri Lanka’s economic recovery after defaulting on its sovereign debts in 2022.
The election was widely seen as a referendum on the austerity measures that Wickresmesinghe imposed as part of a bailout deal with the International Monetary Fund. Although they brought down inflation and stabilized foreign exchange reserves, they also inflicted pain on ordinary Sri Lankans, who were swayed by Dissanayake’s campaign promises to renegotiate terms with the IMF. But Dissanayake will need to tread carefully: roughly $3 billion in IMF support is on the line.
He also must find a way to kickstart a moribund economy, and here’s where geopolitics come into play. In recent years Colombo has looked to China for major infrastructure investments, only to see revenues fall well short of expectations. Despite Sri Lanka losing ownership of a major Chinese-backed port, Dissanayake is expected to continue deepening ties with Beijing, even as the US backs its own Sri Lankan port project.Indian paramilitary soldiers stand alert while Jammu and Kashmir National Conference candidate Mubarak Gul arrives to file his nomination papers for assembly elections in Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir, on September 2, 2024.
Can Kashmiri voters keep Modi’s party out of control in local assembly?
The Indian-occupied region of Kashmir kicks off its first phase of elections on Wednesday for its own truncated government and local legislative assembly, as New Delhi reintroduces some local authority after taking direct control in 2019. Kashmiris, the majority of whom are Muslim, have frequently boycotted elections in the past to protest Indian occupation but reportedly plan to participate this time to attempt to deny the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party control.
Who are the main players? Besides the BJP, which enjoys support from the regional Hindu minority, especially around the city of Jammu, the local People’s Democratic Party and National Congress party are the main contenders. PDP was in coalition with BJP from the last election in 2014 to 2018, while NC has allied with the Indian National Congress, BJP’s main rival on the national level. In addition, 145 independent candidates have registered – a record high — which some Kashmiris say is due to the BJP attempting to dilute the opposition vote. Vote counting is scheduled for Oct. 8, after two additional phases on Sept. 25 and Oct. 1.
The new assembly will have partial control over social policy like education, culture and taxation but not over the police, and it will not enjoy the special privileges it had prior to 2019.
The upshot? If Kashmiri parties can form a governing coalition, they will still be very limited in what legislation they can pass, but it may reduce the appeal of armed insurrection for disaffected youth. Violence in the Vale of Kashmir, which India accuses Pakistan of supporting, has already cost tens of thousands of lives, and we’re watching whether the ballot might prove mightier than the bullet.Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro delivers a speech during a rally to celebrate the results of last month's presidential election, in Caracas, Venezuela August 28, 2024.
Venezuela arrests six in coup plot claim
Six foreign nationals, including three American, two Spanish, and one Czech citizen, were arrested in Venezuela on Saturday,accused of plotting to assassinate strongman President Nicolás Maduro. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello announced the arrests on state television, claiming the suspects were part of a CIA-led plan to overthrow the government. One of the Americans is a US Navy SEAL identified as Wilbert Joseph Castañeda Gomez.
In response,the US State Department denied any involvement, called the claims “categorically false,” and reaffirmed support for a peaceful resolution to the crisis stemming from Venezuela’s recent elections. The Spanish Foreign Ministry said that the two Spanish citizens detained “do not form part of the Centre for National Intelligence or any state organization” and called for a “democratic and peaceful solution to the situation in Venezuela.”
The arrests cometwo days after the US Treasury imposed sanctions on 16 Maduro allies, and a week after Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzales, who was facing arrest, fled to Spain. Washington refuses to recognize the results of Venezuela's July 28 election, in which Maduro claimed victory despite evidence that Gonzales was the real winner. Caracas called the US sanctions a “crime of aggression” that seeks to “overthrow, without success, the Bolivarian democracy.”