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Former president Jair Messias Bolsonaro is inaugurating Route 22 in eight cities in Rio Grande do Norte, starting with the cities of Extremoz, Natal, Parnamirim, and Mossoro, in Natal, Brazil, on August 16, 2024.
Brazil’s ex-President Jair Bolsonaro sentenced to 27 years for coup plot
Brazil’s Supreme Court has convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a coup to stay in power after losing the 2022 election — a historic first in a country that’s lived through 15 coups.
Four of the court’s five justices voted to find Bolsonaro and seven allies, including his running mate and top military officials, guilty of conspiring to overturn the result and hatching a plan to kill their opponent, current president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro, who had already been banned from seeking public office again, has been sentenced to a 27-year prison sentence. He is expected to appeal.
How we got here. Bolsonaro, a former army captain far-right firebrand who was elected president in 2018, spent the 2022 re-election campaign spreading claims of election fraud that were disproven by official investigations. After losing to his leftwing nemesis Lula, his supporters stormed Brazil’s Congress, Supreme Court, and presidential palace on Jan. 8, 2023, demanding the military step in and overturn the results.
In recent weeks, the US has put pressure on Brazil over the trial. Bolsonaro is a close ally – and stylistic emulator – of US president Donald Trump, who has publicly pressured Lula to force the court to drop the charges, threatening high tariffs, sanctions on court justices, and other punitive measures on Latin America’s largest economy.
Those attacks have seemingly backfired – boosting the popularity of the aging and unpopular Lula, who has styled himself as a defender of Brazilian honor and sovereignty. The court justices, meanwhile, appear not to have been swayed by American pressure.
But Bolsonaro’s movement isn’t going away. Eurasia Group Brazil expert Silvio Cascione warns this is not the “turning of the page” many of Bolsonaro’s opponents may hope for. The ruling “crystallizes Brazil’s deep polarization rather than resolving it,” he said. Public opinion is split almost evenly: 43% say the trial was unfair, 51% back the conviction.
“The real concern isn't massive street protests,” Cascione says, “but rather the continued erosion of institutional trust that's been poisoning Brazilian politics for years. Courts, media, and political parties all suffer from a credibility deficit.”
Bolsonaro is still the kingmaker of the Brazilian right. Polls still show he’d be the strongest challenger to Lula in next year’s presidential election, so his endorsement could still shape the race. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas has already emerged as a top heir to Bolsonaro’s movement, courting the former president’s base and floating an amnesty bill in Congress.
The conviction is set to roil relations with Washington. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the ruling a “witch hunt” and signaled possible retaliation, including sanctions on the justices who voted to convict.
If so, Brazil is unlikely to hit back directly, as an actual trade war with the world’s largest economy – and a major source of investment – could get ugly fast.
But tensions with Washington could still have a political upside for Lula. “In what promises to be a highly competitive race,” says Cascione, “playing the victim of American bullying could actually help Lula
Graphic Truth: Japan’s ruling coalition loses majority
Japan’s ruling coalition lost control of the upper house in Sunday’s election, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba amid growing domestic pressure and international challenges. To retain its majority, the Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Komeito needed to win 50 seats – they got only 47. This follows the LDP’s worst electoral showing in 15 years in last fall’s Lower House election. Rising inflation and opposition calls for tax cuts resonated with voters, while the far-right Sanseito party gained ground with a nationalist, anti-immigration platform. Despite the setback, Ishiba vowed to stay on, stressing the importance of upcoming US trade talks as Japan faces an August tariff deadline. For a refresher on why Shigeru was in such trouble to begin with, see here.
A voter casting a ballot in front of the Philippines flag.
Philippine midterms are next episode in Marcos-Duterte drama
The Philippines will hold midterm elections on May 12, with all 317 seats in the House of Representatives, half the 24-member Senate, and various provincial, city, and municipal positions up for grabs. The winners will take office on June 30, with terms of six years for the senators and three years for all other officeholders.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. hopes to maintain his control of Congress as he seeks to advance his legislative agenda and expand his influence at the expense of former president Rodrigo Duterte’s political faction. In July, the new Senate will hold an impeachment trial for Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, who is the former president’s daughter and has repeatedly clashed with Marcos.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford what to watch for in this weekend’s vote.
What are the most important races?
The focus is really on the 12 Senate seats up for election; the House tends to align with the sitting president regardless of its composition. Marcos’s coalition currently consists of six parties in the Senate and nine in the House. Political parties have long been weak in the Philippines, so the concept of a “majority” is very fluid, especially in the Senate, which often acts independently of the president. Officially, the Senate is broken down into “majority bloc,” “minority bloc,” and independents – but “majority” refers to those senators who support the Senate president. This maps roughly, but not precisely, onto the coalition supporting Marcos (or not). There are members of the same party in both the majority and minority blocs, for example. It is therefore easier, but more subjective, to map out the senators who support Marcos and those who do not.
So, what are the stakes in the Senate races?
There are two main implications. First, and more significant for Marcos’s agenda, is whether Marcos retains majority support in the upper house; failure to do so would make it harder to pass proposed economic legislation, including a power sector overhaul aimed at lowering high electricity prices and modest revenue-raising measures designed to trim the large budget deficit and provide more resources for social spending priorities. Second, Duterte-Carpio’s political future is at stake following her impeachment by the House earlier this year on charges of high crimes related to death threats against the president and betrayal of public trust related to alleged misuse of intelligence funds (please see more below).
What are the most important issues for voters heading into these elections?
Surveys show that cost-of-living concerns are by far the biggest issue for voters. The Philippines has been grappling with relatively high inflation in recent years, with food prices a particular concern; price rises have slowed in recent months but that has not yet translated into shifts in public opinion. According to a recent poll, 79% of Filipinos disapprove of the administration’s efforts to control inflation, with just 3% approving. After cost-of-living, voters’ main concerns are pay, corruption, crime, and poverty.
How do the candidates propose to address these concerns?
They have made generic promises about tackling poverty but offered little in terms of specific measures. Philippine elections, especially those for congress, are primarily driven by the personalities and name recognition of the candidates. Many voters will be casting their ballots on the basis of who they know and like, rather than the policy or ideological views of the candidates. It’s worth noting that six of the top 12 candidates in polls are show business personalities; another popular figure is the former boxer Manny Pacquiao, a senator who is running for reelection.
How does the feud between the Marcos and Duterte clans play into election dynamics?
The battle for influence between the country’s two most powerful political dynasties sets the backdrop for the midterms. The upcoming polls will not have an impact on how long Marcos serves as president: He is bound by a single six-year term limit and is very unlikely to be impeached or removed by a coup before his terms ends in 2028. But the outcome of the upcoming Senate poll will determine whether Duterte-Carpio is removed from office and banned from running for public office again. Duterte-Carpio is the early favorite for the 2028 presidential election and the Marcos clan likely hopes she is prevented from running, making it easier for a member of the president’s family or another ally to succeed him.
Duterte-Carpio’s Senate trial is due to begin in late July. If two-thirds (16) of the senators vote against the vice president, she will be removed from office and probably barred from holding other government offices in the future (there is some debate about whether the latter would automatically apply if she is found guilty). She needs only nine senators to vote against or abstain. In addition, the outlook is complicated by the fact that some senators counted in the “pro-Marcos” majority, as they tend to support the administration’s bills, are actually closer to the Dutertes and will likely oppose her removal. That said, the president could press allies to vote against her.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
A man holding a cake sings Happy Birthday for Calin Georgescu during an event to celebrate Georgescu's birthday, in Bucharest, Romania, March 26, 2025.
Far-right places first in Romanian election, sets stage for run-off
Far-right nationalist George Simion won the first round of Romania’s presidential rerun election on Sunday, securing 41% of the vote. Simion, leader of the Alliance for the Union of Romanians, or AUR, is known for his pro-Trump, Eurosceptic stance and opposition to military aid for Ukraine. Simion came in first but failed to reach the 50% threshold needed to win outright. Independent Bucharest Mayor Nicușor Dan came in second with 21% of the vote, edging out centrist Crin Antonescu, and will face Simion in the runoff on May 18.
What led up to this election? The vote is a rerun after the Constitutional Court annulled Romania’s November 2024 presidential contest over allegations of Russian interference. Moscow was pushing for ultranationalist candidate Călin Georgescu on social media in November, and though barred from running, Georgescu remains influential – he even voted at Simion’s side on Sunday – and could play a significant role in an AUR administration.
How did Simion succeed – and where would he take Romania? Simion tapped into widespread public discontent with Romania’s political establishment, struggling economy, and skepticism toward EU institutions. His rise could bring Bucharest closer to Moscow, and he has pledged to end Romanian support for Ukraine in its war with Russia.Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, speaks during a policy agreement ceremony with the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions at the Korea Press Center in Seoul, South Korea, on May 1, 2025.
South Korean court throws likely next president into jeopardy
South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung had a rough day on Thursday. The Supreme Court sent the election law case against him back to a lower court, a move that could extend the country’s political chaos. Lee is the favorite to win the June 3 election, but he could be ousted from office if the court rules against him weeks, months, or even years down the line.
The legal circumstances are murky. If elected, Lee might claim that he’s constitutionally protected from prosecution. But the constitution only gives the sitting president immunity against indictment for crimes — other than treason, as impeached former President Yoon Suk-yeol knows all too well. Lee has already been indicted, setting up a contentious debate if the courts rule against him, according to Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan.
“The conservatives will be saying that he clearly committed this crime and was charged before he became president, and the punishment is that he’s not allowed to seek public office, which would invalidate this whole election,” says Chan. “The left will be saying that the highest law in the land says very specifically that the president should be immune from these types of charges, and should focus on governing.”
The conservative ruling party is still reeling from Yoon’s impeachment after his quixotic attempt at a military coup in December. Nonetheless, acting President Han Duck-soo resigned on Thursday to make way for his own bid for the top job, despite grim polling numbers. The Joong Ang Daily, a conservative paper, found 42% of voters are leaning toward Lee, while only 13% back Han.
Then again, given the sword of Damocles hanging over Lee, Han might be willing to roll the dice.
Former President Donald Trump dances as he leaves the stage during a rally at the Delaware County Fairgrounds.
HARD NUMBERS: Trump’s first 100 days in five key figures
43: According to a New York Times/Siena College poll released on Friday, 43% of Americans have a favorable view of Trump — down from 48% before the election. Compared to other presidents at the 100-day mark, Trump is performing worse than any in the past 80 years. How would voters describe his first 100 days in a word? Sixty-six percent said “chaotic,” according to the poll.
94%: President Donald Trump hasn’t deported as many people as he’d like thus far, but he has successfully discouraged many potential immigrants from attempting to cross via Mexico – and to an extraordinary degree. US border patrol saw 22,726 people try to cross the southern border in February and March, down 94% from the same period last year, when Joe Biden was at the helm. On Monday, Trump announced plans to sign two executive orders that would further aid him in his immigration crackdown – one that targets sanctuary cities and the other that will empower law enforcement officials with legal protections and military equipment.
80: Trump only posted 80 times on X, formerly known as Twitter, during his second first 100 days, down from the 496 times he posted during the corresponding period of his debut term. Meanwhile, he posted 80 times on Truth Social within the last week, emphasizing how – despite Elon Musk’s purchase of X – the president’s own social media platform is now his communication medium of choice.
130: Trump is marking his 100th day with a rally in Michigan, where he is expected to tout the success of his immigration crackdown and economic policies. The president plans to outline how over 130 countries have reached out to the White House to negotiate trade agreements after he suspended his tariffs for 90 days – a key message to hammer home in the swing state where a large auto industry could either see major gains — or serious losses — depending on whether tariffs boost domestic manufacturing or trigger an economic slowdown.
10: In response to the Trump administration threatening to withhold federal funding from major universities over accusations of antisemitism on their campuses, approximately 10 schools, including some of the Ivy Leagues and other top colleges, have formed an informal group as a united front in legal negotiations. They will decide as a collective how to resist the administration’s demands that, in their view, infringe on academic independence.Workers' Party (WP) supporters wave party flags as they cheer their candidates at the nomination center ahead of the general election in Singapore, on April 23, 2025.
Singapore’s opposition hopes to make major gains as election campaign begins
Singapore kicked off a lightning-fast, nine-day campaign on Wednesday for its May 3 election. The vote promises to be the most contested since independence, as the ruling People’s Action Party sweats a strong challenge amid weak economic forecasts.
Elections in Singapore are usually dull affairs: The PAP has utterly dominated all contests since 1965, with members of the founding Lee family serving as PM for 45 years combined, and as recently as 2024. During one of its worst performances in 2020, the PAP won 89% of seats in parliament – even though it won just 61% of the vote. Such disproportionate electoral results, along with systematic repression of opposition figures, have led to accusations that Singapore is a de facto one-party state.
What’s different this time? First off, the Lion City is facing grim economic prospects. Growth projections have been revised to 0-2% for the year, down from 1-3%, and the heavily trade-dependent economy is reeling from global 10% tariffs imposed by the United States.
Secondly, the PAP’s long time in office contrasts sharply with a slate of newer candidates from the opposition Worker’s Party. PM Lawrence Wong has introduced 32 new candidates in an effort to shed the old guard image, casting off many long-serving stalwarts. A YouGov survey showed that only about 40% of voters would support the PAP if the election were held today, while a 43% plurality either don’t know or wouldn’t say who they will support.
The WP is still fighting uphill. Its leaders hope to take a third of seats in parliament, far from a majority – but perhaps enough to change the political dynamic permanently.
What Canada’s main parties are running on in upcoming election
Canada’s 45th general election is less than two weeks away, and the nation faces a fraught political climate fueled by President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats towards the country. The election's outcome could have far-reaching impacts on Canada’s future and position in a fragmenting world. In an exclusive interview, GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sits down with Eurasia Group‘s senior advisor John Baird and Vice Chairman Gerald Butts to unpack what’s at stake in Canada’s election, including key political players and the strategies behind their campaigns.
Butts, former principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and a key Liberal strategist, says Carney is seeking a public mandate after taking over during Canada’s longest-running minority Parliament. Baird counters that Carney aims to ride early popularity and break from the Trudeau legacy.
Despite clear ideological divides, both Butts and Baird agree on one point: Canada needs a strong majority government. Baird warns that, “when you have such a small number of Members of Parliament, it’s like the tail wagging the dog,” expressing concern over the instability of minority rule. Butts echoes the sentiment, stating the country would be “far better served by a strong government of either political stripe.”
With Canadians heading to the polls, the world will be watching closely. The 2025 Canada election could determine not just the nation's economic path but its place on the global stage.
Watch full interview: Canadians head to the polls — and into the Trump vortex