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Ian Explains: Gaming out the 2024 US election
A quarter of Americans believe that the FBI was behind January 6. But as the late New York Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan once said, “You’re entitled to your own opinions, but you’re not entitled to your own facts.” The fact is that President Trump incited the insurrection.
Shared trust amongst Americans is at an all-time low. Public trust in core institutions—such as Congress, the judiciary, and the media—is at historic lows; polarization and partisanship are at historic highs.
And what if the world’s most powerful country cannot hold a free and fair election on November 5? Unlikely but plausible. Efforts to subvert the election could come from cyberattacks, deep fakes and disinformation, physical attacks on the election process and oversight, and/or even terrorism to disrupt voting on the day. There’s no more geopolitically significant target than the upcoming ballot—with plenty of foreign adversaries that would love nothing more than to see more chaos from the Americans.
The United States is already the world’s most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy. The 2024 election will exacerbate this problem no matter who wins. With the outcome of the vote essentially a coin toss (at least for now), there's no certainty in predicting who comes out on top. But just how we make that choice will determine if democracy, itself, wins or loses.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
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Members of the activist groups Truth Tuesdays and Rise and Resist gathered at a weekly FOX LIES DEMOCRACY DIES event outside the NewsCorp Building in Manhattan.
Dominion Voting v. Fox News: The stakes are higher than you think
Fox News and Dominion Voting Systems, following a one-day delay, are set to square off in court on Tuesday. Dominion is suing for defamation, claiming that Fox’s hosts and guests knowingly spread a false narrative that the company’s voting systems flipped votes against former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election.
What’s at stake?$1.6 billion, the future of the media industry, and the Super Bowl of libel law decisions.
The outcome will have implications for both the media and the First Amendment. SinceNew York Times v. Sullivan gave broad protection to the American press in 1964, there have been almost impossibly high standards for suing a media organization for defamation. Prosecutors need to prove “actual malice” or that the outlet knowingly, or with reckless disregard for the truth, published a falsehood.
Dominion says Fox pushed lies about it algorithmically transferring votes to Biden. These lies, Dominion claims, cost it $1.6 billion in reputational damages. Armed with emails and texts, Dominion’s legal team reportedly aims to reveal that Fox News execs and hosts did not believe Trump’s election fraud claims.
Fox News, meanwhile, is expected to argue that it is protected by the First Amendment and that it was merely covering Trump’s narrative about the results. Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, and founder Rupert Murdoch are expected to testify.
Why haven’t they settled? Slated to begin on Monday, the trail was delayed late Sunday for last-minute settlement discussions. Negotiations are not expected to succeed, as Dominion is fighting to recoup its reputation more than financial losses.
Fox News may be more amenable to settling after being reprimanded for potentially withholding evidence. But any settlement would also include an apology under terms set by Dominion, which would come at a reputational loss for the right-wing media giant.
Dominion’s lawyers, who filed requests with the court on Monday that indicate they are ready to proceed, believe they have enough evidence to meet the defamation threshold.
If the jury sides with Dominion, the ruling will upend decades of defamation precedent protecting the media. If Fox prevails, it will send the message that the First Amendment protects outlets even when they spread disinformation. Whatever the decision, the implications of this trial extend far beyond the courtroom.
Trump will use election fraud claims to stay relevant through 2021
Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:
The Electoral College has voted. Why is Trump still refusing to acknowledge defeat?
Well, the President has a long history of criticizing people who lose elections as losers, who quote, "choke like a dog." And I don't think the President wants to admit to himself that he is a loser who choked like a dog. In addition, he's building a pretty impressive political operation based off claims that the election was stolen from him. He's raised over $200 million in the month since the election, and that political operation is going to keep him relevant in the media and in Republican politics for at least the rest of 2021. I think that the claims of election fraud are really central to that operation. So, don't expect Trump to concede anytime soon, even after Republicans start broadly acknowledging his loss.
Why is Attorney General William Barr resigning?
Barr had been one of the President's biggest loyalists. He'd used the Department of Justice in order to advance many Trump causes. And after the election, it looked like he was moving in a different direction. Ostensibly, he's doing it to spend time with his family around Christmas, which is what President Trump said. But in recent weeks, it's come out that Barr didn't acknowledge the DOJ was investigating Hunter Biden before the election; and also, he's been disputing the President's claims of voter fraud. So, I think that relationship just wasn't tenable anymore. Barr's on his way out in the closing days of the administration.
How will the US respond to recent Russian cyber attacks?
Well first, the US has to be sure beyond a shadow of a doubt that the perpetrators of these attacks were Russian. It's possible that there's a false attribution, although it looks very likely these things were carried out by the Russian government. Second, the US is likely to respond with sanctions targeted at the people who did the deed, unless it turns out that this was more than just an intelligence gathering operation and, in fact, targeted US critical infrastructure or was an attempt to damage some US companies or the government. In that case, you may see something much, much broader than sanctions, up into and including cyber attacks back on the Russians to make sure that they pay a price for having done this. Third, a lot of this may not happen until the Biden administration. With the transition of government happening now and going til January 20th, the Biden people may want to reset their approach to Russia altogether, and you may see a much more aggressive response to Russia that goes beyond targeted sanctions starting in the new year.
The threat of foreign interference to the US election
There's no doubt that foreign actors like Russia, China and Iran have already tried to interfere in the US election and may go even further than they did in 2016. But at the same time, there have been indications that some foreign leaders, like Vladimir Putin, may already be hedging their bets for a Biden victory. Election law expert Rick Hasen, however, believes that the threat of dirty tricks by foreign actors is still very real – an attack on the US power grid on Election Day, he says, is not outside of the realm of possibility. His conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of the latest episode of GZERO World.
Watch the episode: What could go wrong in the US election? Rick Hasen on nightmare scenarios & challenges
Looking to Election Day and the days that may follow
"If [the election] is very close and it ends up in the courts, that kind of protracted situation I think will lead many Americans to believe that it was an unfair election." Rick Hasen, election law expert and author of Election Meltdown, lays out some of the worst-case scenarios for Election Day, ranging from unprecedented voter suppression to dirty tricks by foreign actors. The conversation was part of the latest episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer. The episode begins airing nationally in the US on public television this Friday, October 30. Check local listings.
Watch the episode: What could go wrong in the US election? Rick Hasen on nightmare scenarios & challenges