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Episode 8: What to expect from Joe Biden’s Presidency
Listen: It was an election for the history books in many ways, with record voter turnout during an unprecedented global health crisis. And while President-elect Joe Biden emerged as the winner after securing close-margin victories in some key states, he will undoubtedly face a deeply divided nation when he takes the oath of office in January 2021.
In our latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, we're examining what the election results mean to the US, the world, and your wallet. From taxes to trade and climate change, our experts offer the facts and figures you need to know as America prepares for the Inauguration of the 46th President.
Moderated by Caitlin Dean, this conversation features Jon Lieber, Eurasia Group's Managing Director for the US; and Candi Wolff, Head of Global Governmental Affairs at Citi.
Candi Wolff
Managing Director and Citi's Head of Global Government Affairs
Jon Lieber
Managing Director for the United States, Eurasia Group
Caitlin Dean
Head of Financial & Professional Services, Eurasia Group
The appeal of free speech social media platforms like Parler
Watch as Nicholas Thompson, editor-in-chief of WIRED, explains what's going on in technology news:
What is Parler? Why are people moving off Facebook to new social sites?
Parler is like Twitter, except it was set up very specifically to make it so that the owners of the site, the people who run it, would not censor your speech, or put another way, would not take action to remove hateful or harmful speech. It is a free speech social media platform that is primarily used by people on the political right. Why are people moving off Facebook to new social sites? I don't think that many are. People talk about moving off, but to the extent they are, it's because they feel like the sites are censoring them.
The US government said the election was the most secure in American history. Do you agree? How did we get here after the failures of 2016?
It was quite secure. We don't know for sure how we'll evaluate it a year from now. The way we got there is we saw the catastrophe of 2016. A lot of smart, dedicated people took corrective action.
The GOP siding with Trump is hardly a threat to democracy
Columnist Max Boot writes in The Washington Post that by humoring Trump, the GOP is enabling authoritarianism. Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group's Jon Lieber take out The Red Pen to argue that, while disappointing, the kowtowing is unlikely to damage US democracy.
And today we're taking our Red Pen to an article by Washington Post columnist and author Max Boot. It has the frightening title, "By humoring Trump, the GOP is enabling authoritarianism."
Now, Max's premise is that by kowtowing to a sore loser, GOP leaders are doing irreparable harm to both their party and to our democracy writ large.
I do think there's a lot of disappointing behavior here from Republicans and certainly from President Trump, but I don't think the US democracy will crash and burn because of it. Let's get out the Red Pen.
First, Max writes that, "It was inevitable that if Trump lost the 2020 election that he would allege that he had been cheated of his rightful victory even without any evidence of any cheating." No argument from me there, that is exactly what is happening. But then he goes on with, "What was not inevitable was that the leaders of the Republican Party would support his claims."
Actually, not so much. All leaders of the GOP are not supporting the claims. In fact, a number of Republican Senators have already called Joe Biden to congratulate him on the winning the presidency. And Senate leader Mitch McConnell is supporting Trump's right to make the claim, which is very different from saying the claim is correct. I'm not justifying why they won't congratulate President-elect Biden. In my view, they all should. But that is very different than Max's argument.
Which brings us to the reason why so many Republicans are taking Trump's side in this losing battle. Max writes that they "keep the charade going because their leader is too much of a 'snowflake' to admit he was just repudiated by more than 76 million Americans."
It's not the Republican party's finest moment. I agree. But it's also true the President was himself was endorsed by more than 70 million Americans. He lost. But there are a lot of Trump voters out there. A hell of a lot more than the polls expected. And as long as Trump is around, the Republican Party needs to court those voters to keep their party strong. After all, the balance of the Senate is still up for grabs in Georgia, as they head to a runoff in early January. You think the Republican Party is going to start a war with the President before that election? There's not a chance.
Finally, Max writes, "Many countries have elections. But only in functioning democracies do losers recognize the result and transfer power to the winners."
Here's a secret: Concessions are nice. They are appropriate. But they are not necessary. Stacy Abrams lost the Georgia Governorship by 55,000 votes to Brian Kemp, who is now Governor. Stacey never conceded. It didn't matter.
Joe Biden will become president on January 20, you can bank on it. And he's going to even if Trump doesn't wish him well or go gently into the goodnight.
Max does make a big point near the end of the article that we all agree with: a quick concession from Trump is better for national security. He cites the 9/11 Commission report saying the delayed transition after the contentious and drawn out 2000 election made the nation more vulnerable to the terrorist attack that followed.
This is one of many reasons why President Trump should quickly concede and release the funds and resources necessary for the peaceful transition of power to President-elect Biden.
But, no, the fate of our very democracy doesn't hinge on a congratulatory tweet from very soon to be ex-President Donald Trump.
Trump's choices depend on money & leverage; COVID vaccine news is a big deal
Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics on this week's World In (More Than) 60 Seconds:
Number one, Trump will not concede the election. What happens now?
Well, it's very different from impeachment. When impeachment happened, all the Republicans opposed it. Mitt Romney get one conviction, but otherwise, it was party line. And the social media, Fox news, OANN, all these guys, everyone said "innocent." This is a different story. Here's one where Trump isn't conceding, but actually, the Republicans are all over the map. We've got several Republican senators already that have called to congratulate Biden on his win. I know four have done so as of this morning.
We see that a lot of Trump's supporters are saying, "We definitely should go through all of every legal means to contest, but ultimately, if they fail, and by the way, they're going to fail, then that means that Biden will be the victor." And I've even seen Lindsey Graham say that. Ted Cruz almost said that. And then, you have some hardcore GOP and Trump supporters that are saying, "No, this was stolen." And so far, Trump has been saying that publicly. I saw Secretary of State Pompeo just came out with a statement, and it was, "There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration."
Now, what's Pompeo doing? Is this a coup? No, no. Pompeo understands that Trump is still going to be powerful. And you've got other people that want to run for president in 2024 that are being much more cautious, aren't supporting Trump as much like Nikki Haley, for example. And then, you've got Pompeo who's Secretary of State, and he's saying, "I'm right there with you, Mr. Trump." And so, when Mr. Trump becomes a king-maker for the party in 2024, who do you think he's going to be closer to? It's a very cynical move, but if you're Mike Pompeo, it's the move you've got. That's what you're doing. That does not mean that you actually have a whole phalanx of the Republican party that's planning to burn it all in flames.
Now, the real question is, what's Trump going to do? Will Trump ultimately offer a week late concession and won't show up at the inauguration of Biden, but nonetheless will do it? Or does he try to just burn as much down as he can personally? I don't know the answer to that. Some of this is about the money. Like, how much money does he owe? And doesn't he need to try to raise as much money possible to actually get out of that financial jeopardy? Some of it is how much leverage he does or does not think he can have with those that could push for a pardon both before the transition, as well as, potentially, after with Biden for the good of the country. Right? There are a lot of reasons why Trump would or would not want to offer some kind of concession. I understand that from a personal and narcissistic perspective, you'd say, "Well, he'd never admit that he lost anything," but he's made admissions before.
NATO, he said it was obsolete. Then, he said, "I was wrong." And he moved on. His ego allows him to be right about everything even when he admits he's wrong about something. That's one of the helpful things from the Trump mental and emotional perspective. Even on Obama birtherism, he gave that big press conference at the Trump International Hotel. The big reveal was an infomercial, but he gave one sentence saying, "Oh, and by the way, Obama was really born in the US." He didn't say he was wrong, just, "Well, the facts came out." He could do that with the presidency if he wants to. He'll still drive the libs nuts, right? That's not an issue for Trump. They all still hate him. He's still going to have that fight. It's not like he's going to give up on anything. So, I think that would be interesting if that's the way it goes.
With Pfizer and BioNTech announcing a 90% effective COVID vaccine, what happens next?
Well, look, first of all, it's a press release. I'd be more comfortable if we had the data as well. So, let's be clear that we've had other press releases too, still a lot to understand. But certainly, at this stage in the game, 90% effectiveness is vastly better than any epidemiologist I've been talking to at this... Looking at the vaccines going forward. So, if that's what we have, and by spring, summer, we end up with a significant piece of the American population taking this, and by the way, 90% effectiveness, a lot more people are going to be comfortable taking it than at 40% or 50%. I think that's a seriously big deal.
Now, again, it's two shots. So, it is, you got a booster. So, that means double the amount of time to produce, double the amount of time distribution. It's challenging. You need infrastructure around that, and I'm not sure that Trump's going to do a lot to help before inauguration of Biden on January 20th, but this is a big deal. This is going to improve GDP. It's going to improve the ability of people to get back to work, prove the ability people to socialize, stop the quarantines, all of that.
And that, plus the fact that mortality rates are going down means that the balance between listening to the scientist and listening to the economist is shifting towards the economist, and that's important. Like, I wouldn't feel pretty bad if Biden only listens to the scientists and the COVID task force and doesn't recognize that mortality is coming down. We've got better treatment. We're going to continue to have that. And we also have vaccines coming. You still want to wear masks, but you definitely want to be opening the economy more. I don't think this reflects needing to lock down economies. And that's a really, really good thing.
Will the peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan last?
Yeah. Yeah, I think it will because the Armenians have gotten pasted. They have really very little support internationally. Militarily, the Azeris supported by the Turks are a lot stronger, and the Armenians lost some territory in this contested mountain, this Nagorno-Karabakh. They were, potentially, going to lose the capital, so they gave up the territory that the Azeris occupied. They gave up the territory around Nagorno-Karabakh that had been occupied by the Armenians as a buffer zone. This makes the democratic elected government in Armenia a lot weaker. It's potential that they could be overthrown. There's going to be a lot of anger when you lose a war. There's a lot of anger, but in terms of, is there going to be a ceasefire or not? Yeah.
When one side wins, there's not much that the Armenians can do right now. And this is what happens in a GZERO world where you've got a political vacuum, you've got a military vacuum, the aggressor gets to do a lot. And the Turks and the Azeris decided that the status quo, which had worked very well for decades for an Armenia that had a lot of political friends, but not many military advantages, they don't like that status quo. So, holding onto the status quo was not a viable strategy. And again, they just got pasted.
GZERO Live: America's uncertain future post-election
The discussion was moderated by Tony Maciulis, GZERO Media's Head of Video, and our panel included:
- Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
- Karen Attiah, Global Opinions editor, The Washington Post
- Jon Lieber, US Managing Director, Eurasia Group
- Alex Kliment, Senior Editor, Signal & Chief PuppetMaster, GZERO Media
Quick Take: The election is serious, but don't panic
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody, Ian Bremmer here. It's Monday and a quick take for you right before the election. That's right. Don't panic. All of you remembering Douglas Adams, the great Douglas Adams, for those people that back in high school, this is the kind of book that you knew people that read the Hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy. You said, "That's probably a normal human being a little dorky, but isn't going to kill me," where the people that were all about Atlas shrugged and the Fountainhead, those were people that were problematic later in life. That's just my own personal view. Maybe a little Tolkien. That was also fine. A little Hobbit. I'm friendly that way, but this is the message I really want people to keep in mind in the next 24, 48, 72 hours, the next week, two, three weeks.
It's going to be tough out there. People are going nuts. They're going crazy. The media is making it worse. The social media is making it worse, and it's going to be a tough time for the United States. But to be clear, we are not on the brink of becoming an authoritarian state. We are not about to be a Banana Republic. We are not on the verge of collapse. Instead, we are very divided. A lot of people are hurting. A lot of people are angry, and we have a whole bunch of people in very different information bubbles. They don't talk to each other, engage with each other, and that is a problem. That makes the country feel so much less purposeful, mission-oriented, communal, civic, all the things that we want. If you've got a flag, if you want to be united under that flag, you have to care about all the people in the country, not just the ones that agree with you politically.
Look, this election matters. It matters a lot. It matters more than usual. I'm the one that usually says, "American elections, whoever the president is ultimately doesn't impact your life that much." This time, it does, and it does largely because there is such a big crisis right now. If you get Biden and if you get a majority Democrat in Senate, you're going to have $3 trillion of stimulus come February or March. That's massive for a new American president. If it's a divided Congress or if Trump wins, it's going to be a lot less. So, there is a very big, a significant gap. The markets are responding too. It's going to matter a lot to the people, to the States, the municipalities, right? That does really matter.
Also, if there's a majority democratic Senate, you will end the filibuster... Heck, Washington DC will probably become the 51st state. You will have the Voter Rights Act. You'll probably redo the census again because it was cut short. These are significant impacts for a long time in the United States, not just measured in years, but decades of impact and trajectory.
So, I absolutely think Biden versus Trump is very meaningful. If Biden comes in, my taxes are going up a lot. Certainly, to Obama levels, but probably much more than that, and that's going to affect a lot of wealthy Americans. The regulatory environment's going to change a lot, and if you're in a corporate that's affected by that, that's very significant. So I don't want to say that Biden versus Trump doesn't matter. It's just the idea that Biden versus Trump is somehow this end of the world for the United States is not the case.
Now, what do we think is going to happen in this election? Well, the polls are telling you very clearly Biden is ahead by a lot. He's been ahead consistently by a lot for a long time. It's been very stable. There's been no closing of that gap the way there was between Hillary and Trump. So that means whether you look at FiveThirtyEight or you look at RealClearPolitics... I personally, we've got to deal with Ipsos and we do a blend of all of the different swing state polls, we look at the national polls. It's very clear that it's 85, 90% likely looking at the polls that Trump is going to lose.
But that doesn't mean that Trump is going to lose. That means that if you have seven, eight, nine, 10 elections, one of those elections at least Trump is going to win. That is an expected outcome of a multiple series. I just wish that more people don't think that the polls are wrong when you have an outcome that's unlikely. It just means that you only have a one shot at something that you'd like a larger number for.
Well, not that we wouldn't want that from a personal perspective, because it would drive everyone truly batshit, but personally, that's what it means. So there is a real potential that Trump is the President in a legitimate election, a legitimately counted election, one that Biden would need to concede for, and Trump would lead for four more years. If that happens, we'll be okay. We'll get through it, right? Again, it's going to drive some people insane, but the reality is that the United States will continue to persist as a damaged, but nonetheless, robust country, economy, even representative democracy.
On the other hand, it's much more likely... it's vastly more likely that Biden wins. What is very unusual about this election is that even in a significant Biden win, the amount of contestation is going to be very high. The willingness of Trump to say that he has won, if he has not, is pretty significant. If he decides to do that and say it's rigged and call his supporters out onto the streets, angry that the democratic establishment is trying steal his rightfully won election, I think you're going to see a lot of violence.
We've already seen some of that with lots of convoys of Trump supporters in trucks and cars. I haven't seen that they've been armed significantly, though you saw some of that in Portland, but easily plausible going forward. I've seen a lot of them obscuring license plates, because if you're shutting down traffic or shutting down a bridge, doing something illegal, they're trying to avoid responsibility for that illegality. That's not exactly conscientious objectionism. But if Trump were to directly call for his supporters to go out in the streets because they're going to take the election from him, I think that's going to be a level of demonstrations and violence in the country that will certainly rival anything we've seen since '68, in other words, anything in my lifetime. That's a problem.
That's why you see so many cities with streets and having all the storefronts getting boarded up, and that's being true in big urban areas all over the place, including right downstairs on Fifth Avenue from my office right now. Of course, when that happens, a lot of people opportunistically just come out to engage in looting and in violence and rioting. So, I think that's real. I think there's a very good chance that's going to happen, but I also think that it's not forever.
In fact, it's not even for a long time. Then eventually, we get to a new president and the ability of Trump to contest, to obscure, to create chaos is reasonably high. The ability to actually subvert the outcome is a very different story. Then it would have to be very close indeed, and even then for him to steal the presidency, no. For him to contest the presidency and create a constitutional crisis that would be like 1876 where you need a political outcome, that is indeed feasible if it's really close. That, we will have a good sense of whether that could happen or not in just over 30... say 30 hours plus.
So we'll get there. Don't panic stick with us. GZERO Media will be talking to you all the way through this. Be good, everybody. I'll talk to you soon.