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President-elect Donald Trump attends the America First Policy Institute gala at Mar-A-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, on Nov. 14, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Trump talks tough tariffs, Opposition wins in Uruguay, DHL plane crashes in Lithuania, Israeli drone targeted journalists, Ireland asylum claims spike
25: President-elect Donald Trump took aim at Canada and Mexico via Truth Social on Monday, posting about his plan to charge the countries — currently America’s No. 1 & No. 2 trading partners, — a whopping 25% tariff on all products entering the US. The tariff would be enacted on Jan. 20, 2025, Trump said, and would “remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” He then posted that he would charge China, where the precursor chemicals to fentanyl are made, “an additional 10% tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of their many products coming into the United States of America.”
49: Uruguay’s left-wing opposition leader Yamandú Orsiwon the small South American country’s presidential election with 49% of the vote in a neck-and-neck runoff contest on Sunday. It was yet another rebuke of an incumbent party — the theme of many global elections this year — but not to worry: Uruguay is remarkably stable, and Orsi is a moderate with no radical plans.
1: One crew member died on Monday when a DHL cargo flight crashed during its attempted landing in Vilnius, Lithuania, with surveillance video showing a huge ball of flames as the plane went down. Lithuanian officials said they could not rule out whether Russia played a role in the crash, following months of suspicions over Moscow’s possible role in other cases of sabotage against the German shipping giant. Germany, meanwhile, is sending investigators to Vilnius to aid with the probe.
3: Human Rights Watch has determined that an Israeli drone strike that killed three journalists in Lebanon last month was most likely a deliberate attack on civilians, which is a war crime. More than 3,500 people in Lebanon have died amid Israel’s invasion, and more than 1 million have been displaced from their homes in the 5.3-million-strong country.
300: Asylum applications in Ireland have spiked 300% so far this year – with a fourfold increase from Nigeria – compared to last. The rise has been driven by tougher immigration stances in the UK, including a quixotic plan to house asylum-seekers in Rwanda. The uptick is becoming a political issue in Ireland, with voters increasingly concerned by the impact of increased migration on scarce housing.On Jan. 6, 2021, pro-Trump supporters and far-right forces flooded Washington, DC, to protest Trump's election loss. Hundreds breached the US Capitol.
Americans are on edge as voters head to the polls
As Election Day unfolds across the United States, law enforcement agencies warn that well-organized groups supporting Donald Trump may disrupt Tuesday’s vote and could carry out acts of violence. In particular, one chapter of the Proud Boys, a far-right movement that played a pivotal role in the pro-Trump riot at the US Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, posted a message on social media that its members “will either stand with the resistance or take a knee and willingly accept the yoke of tyranny and oppression.”
In fact, the New York Times reports that an investigation of more than one million messages posted on Telegram “question the credibility of the presidential election” and threaten to “interfere with the voting process and potentially dispute the outcome.” Some of these messages included images of violence. A so-called “election integrity” movement urges Telegram users to help “audit” the vote and to share news related to election rigging. Governors in Oregon, Washington, and Nevada have National Guard troops on standby in case of election-related violence.
Media coverage of the threat of trouble has Americans on edge. A new study from the American Psychological Association, an industry group, finds that more than 70% of Americans fear that today’s election will trigger violence.
A photo shows music and entertainment arena facility “Sphere” displays messages of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris prior to the Presidential election in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States of America on October 30, 2024.
The US election: Down to the wire
Welcome to the final sprint of the 2024 US presidential election! As the clock ticks, Democrats are celebrating an Iowa poll that shows Republican candidate Donald Trump trailing Democrat Kamala Harris 44-47 among likely voters in the supposedly safe red state.
The Selzer poll, considered one of the most reliable in the nation, found that women are driving the shift toward Harris in the Hawkeye State. It comes in the wakeof Trump’s promise this week to protect women “whether they like it or not” as well asracist and misogynistic comments by speakers at the Republicans’ Madison Square Garden rally last Sunday that Trump later termeda “lovefest.”
Not to be outdone, Trump managed to hit a new low on Friday,simulating oral sex on a malfunctioning microphone in Milwaukee. On Sunday, he held rallies in three swing states: Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Meanwhile, Harris appeared on “Saturday Night Live” to lean into her “joyful warrior” persona, mirroring herself against Maya Rudolph, the comedian who famously impersonates her. Offscreen, she made multiple stops in Michigan.
On Monday, the campaigns will make their final efforts to rally voters in key swing states. Trump will hold rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Harris is scheduled to appear in both Philadelphia, where she will be joined byOprah Winfrey, and Pittsburgh. Clearly, we’re all watching Pennsylvania.
Google logo is displayed on a mobile phone screen photographed with a Russian flag in the background for an illustration.
Hard Numbers: Kremlin hits Google with zeroes, Chileans demand tighter borders, Americans suffer election anxiety, Flash flooding wreaks havoc in Spain, Mount Fuji is missing something
20 decillion: The Kremlin hit Google with a fine of $20 decillion on behalf of Russian broadcasters banned by the company’s subsidiary, YouTube. Russia says the $20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 — more than a million trillion times larger than the size of the entire global economy but still nearly 70 zeroes smaller than a “googol” – is symbolic. There aren’t enough zeroes in the world to convey how minimal the chances are of Google paying the Kremlin a single cent.
96: How popular is the idea of tighter immigration restrictions in Chile? Some 96% of the country now favors reducing the influx of foreigners, according to a new poll. Chile, a relatively prosperous country that has long had a relatively lax border policy, saw its foreign-born population surge by 25% between 2018 and 2022, driven largely by the mass exodus from Venezuela. A backlash against migrants, partly shaped by the 2021 presidential election, has continued to grow.
70: Roughly 70% of Americans are feeling anxious or frustrated about the election, according to a new AP/NORC poll. If you are one of the afflicted, find someone among the 36% who report feeling “excited” about the upcoming vote. Who are these people?
158: At least 158 people have been killed by devastating flash floods in Spain's Valencia region, as rescuers continue to search for survivors. The fatal flooding, the worst such disaster for the country in a century, wreaked havoc — sweeping away entire homes and leaving cars piled in the streets.
130: Japan’s Mount Fuji is missing something right now: snow. The peak’s iconic snowcap usually begins forming in October, and never in 130 years of records has it gone without one this late in the month. The summer of 2024 was tied with 2023 for Japan’s hottest ever.October 23, 2024, Kamagaya, Japan - Japanese Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shigeru Ishiba reacts to his supporters after he delivered a campaign speech for his party candidate Hisashi Matsumoto for the general election at Kamagaya in Chiba prefecture, suburban Tokyo on Wednesday, October 23, 2024.
Will Japan’s LDP lose its grip on power?
As Japan heads to the polls this Sunday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to call an early election just weeks after taking office is turning out to be a high-stakes gamble. Polls predict that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lose seats, or even the majority, after ruling the country for all but four of the past 65 years.
“The opposition parties are hammering the LDP over the political fundraising scandal,” says Eurasia Group’s Japan Director David Boling, referring to the discovery of undisclosed political funds and kickbacks within the LDP, news that has rattled public trust at a time when inflation is biting and living costs are soaring.
Earlier polls showed that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito would maintain their majority, but a weekend poll indicating they could lose 50 of their 247 seats has left Ishiba on shaky ground.
If the LDP loses its majority, it could be forced to make concessions on monetary policy. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, LDP’s biggest opposition, proposes modifying the Bank of Japan’s inflation target from 2% to one “exceeding zero,” which would leave room for rate hikes even if inflation dips.
Beyond having to abandon its economic agenda, Boling warns that “if the LDP-Komeito coalition loses its majority, the prime minister’s deathwatch may begin for Ishiba.”
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump reacts at a Faith Leaders Roundtable at Zebulon, Georgia, U.S., October 23, 2024.
Labo(u)r of love or “election interference” from the UK?
Donald Trump’s campaign has accused Britain’s Labour Party of “blatant” interference in the US election after volunteers from the party traveled to the US to campaign for his opponent, Kamala Harris.
Campaigning while foreign isn’t necessarily illegal, but the Trump campaign’s complaint with US election authorities suggests the Labour Party funded the travel, which would be unlawful. A LinkedIn post by a Labour Party organizer had promised to “sort” (read: pay) for the volunteers’ “housing.”
This isn’t new. British volunteers have often campaigned in the US, with Labour supporting Democratic candidates, and Tories traveling for Republicans. Former UK PM Liz Truss has stumped for Trump in the US, as has far-right Reform Party leader Nigel Farage.
The incident raises two issues. First, if Trump wins, it could irritate relations between his White House and the UK’s current Labour government. Prime Minister Keir Starmer doesn’t think so, but Trump could well remember it.
But second, what’s “election interference” anyway? Beyond directly altering vote tallies or hacking the campaigns, are there gray areas between free speech and malicious meddling? Does posting polarizing lies about the candidates constitute “interference”? Is it only a problem if it comes from abroad? And how about the outsized impact of billionaires on our politics or the perception that media bias – on airwaves or algorithms – is its own form of tipping the scales?
This is something we’ll look at closely in the final days of the race – but first we want to hear from you: How would you define “election interference” and what would you do to stop it? Let us know here.
When to worry about AI and the election
There are 21 days until Election Day in the United States — and voters in numerous states have already begun early voting. So far, artificial intelligence applications have had minimal effects on the election, though it’s reared its head a few times.
During this US election cycle, generative AI has been used in an RNC ad, a fraudulent Joe Biden robocall for New Hampshire voters, and deepfake photos of Taylor Swift endorsing Donald Trump.
Microsoft and OpenAI say they’ve disrupted foreign influence campaigns from China, Iran, and Russia seeking to sow discord in the US, including around hot-button political issues such as Israel’s war with Gaza.
While malicious actors haven’t yet used AI tools in very novel ways, the technology has made it easier, quicker, and cheaper to generate online propaganda and disseminate it over social media. In Indonesia, for example, notorious Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto used a chubby-cheeked, friendly AI-generated avatar to appeal to voters in the presidential election. In Pakistan, Imran Khan used AI voice cloning to spread his political message and support his party’s candidates from prison.
Now, with the US election looming, there’s a very real possibility of a more malicious and effective AI campaign targeting Americans. So GZERO AI asked experts what they’re most concerned about in the run-up to Nov. 5. Their overriding concern revolved around misinformation – and how AI is used to create and distribute it – impacting whether and how people vote.
Valerie Wirtschafter, a fellow in the Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative at the Brookings Institution, for example, said she was concerned by the onslaught of generative AI images circulating on social media in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene — including ones alleging that the Biden administration wasn’t doing enough to support residents affected by the storm.
“These images were clearly AI, and when pointed out as such, the response was a simple shrug – that the images resonated because they ‘felt accurate’ anyways,” she said.
There hasn’t been any new federal legislation in the US regarding AI use around elections, and the Federal Election Commission recently chose to forgo new rulemaking on the matter ahead of November. That said, OpenAI, Anthropic, and most major AI companies have self-regulated, instituting rules preventing users from using their tools to generate election-related materials, such as images of presidential candidates. Many of them will refuse to provide voting information as well. That said, many of these rules are porous.
Wirtschafter said she’s most concerned about AI-generated media — particularly audio — being used not to affect how people vote but rather if people vote. Audio-generated content, she said, could be used to “try to prevent a targeted but vital subset of the population from voting” or “sow confusion about where and how to vote,” she said.
“While swing states have prepared for this possibility, it is still such a difficult task, and AI-generated content is most impactful at the local and highly targeted level.”
Scott Bade, a senior analyst in Eurasia Group’s geo-technology practice, said he’s concerned not only by the use of generative AI in the lead-up to the election but also by how politicians might invoke the technology to help cast doubt on things that are, in fact, true.
Like Wirtschafter, Bade said he’s most worried about anything that “muddies the waters and creates fear and confusion that can suppress votes on election day.”
But the threat won’t end after Americans go to the polls. The 2020 election and aftermath showed how conspiracy theories abound even without generative AI.
Politicians, especially those aligned with Trump, falsely claimed there was widespread voter fraud. Bade warned that AI might be used to affect how voters feel about the “sanctity of the ballot.”
So, what should we do about it? Around the elections, it’s important to keep an eye on the source of the materials you’re viewing, check government websites for reliable voting information, and take everything you hear or see in this age of AI with a grain of salt – even if it confirms your prior assumptions.
“This type of content can be obviously AI-generated but still ‘feel’ correct,” Wirtschafter said.
People cast their votes during general election in Utena, Lithuania October 13, 2024.
Lithuanians want change but shun populists
Lithuanians voted in the first round of general elections on Sunday, where exit polls indicate they will empower a center-left coalition and reject far-right populists. The small Baltic state has enjoyed economic growth and low inflation — a rarity these days. Still, the ruling center-right coalition has been criticized for its handling of Russian and Belarusian migrants, as well as health care access.
The opposition Social Democrats said they will begin coalition negotiations after taking around 20% of the vote. They are promising to raise taxes on the wealthy and build a stronger social support net, but the exact makeup in parliament will be decided in run-offs on Oct. 27. Even with the expected change of government, Lithuania’s strong support for Ukraine and efforts to bolster its own military are points of broad mutual agreement.
Far-right populist parties have had strong showings in Europe this year, surging in elections in Austria, France, Germany, and the Netherlands. Lithuania has its homegrown variety, the Nemunas Dawn party, whose leader is on trial for allegedly inciting hatred with antisemitic remarks. Other parties have promised to sideline the far right in Lithuania, a tactic that has kept the populists out of power elsewhere.