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A view shows destroyed Russian tanks and armored vehicles in Lyman, recently liberated by Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: Russian rhetoric & retreat, Ugandan “tweeting general” canned, Colombia-ELN talks resume
Russians retreat, but what comes next?
It’s a case of rhetoric vs. reality. On Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin signed constitutional laws formalizing Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions and vowed to stabilize them. Yet continued Ukrainian advances in one of those regions, Kherson, are now forcing Russian troops to beat a partial retreat. Russia’s acting governor in the region, Kirill Stremousov, has even admitted openly that Putin’s forces are “regrouping to get their strength together and strike back.” Does the Russian retreat raise the risk that Putin, increasingly on his back foot, turns to the use of the once-unthinkable — nuclear weapons — to regain the advantage? While many analysts say such an escalation is unlikely, Moscow has signaled — through the reported movement of nuclear-capable equipment — an ability to make good on the threats. Increased domestic criticism of the war within Russia and losses on the ground no doubt have Putin feeling cornered. So the question remains, how far will he go?
Ugandan president sacks “tweeting general” son
Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni fired his son, four-star Lt. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, for going too far on Twitter by threatening to invade Nairobi, the capital of Kenya. Kainerugaba is famous for using the social media platform to weigh in on foreign policy. Some of his greatest hits are supporting Tigrayan rebels in Ethiopia or guerrillas in the eastern DRC as well as offering 100 heads of cattle, presumably as dowry, to incoming Italian PM Giorgia Meloni. Kainerugaba's fans say it's just light humor, but some Ugandans are wary of the military playing politics and resent his privilege. Moving forward, the dismissal will likely hurt Kainerugaba's chances of succeeding his 78-year-old dad, one of Africa's longest-serving leaders — although Museveni has always denied he's being groomed for the top job. Who might benefit? Opposition leader and former singer Bobi Wine, who in June 2021 failed in his second bid to beat Museveni for the presidency. If you’re interested in his shenanigans, follow Uganda’s “tweeting general” @mkainerugaba.
Colombia restarts ELN peace talks
Looking to realize new President Gustavo Petro's campaign promise of bringing "total peace" to Colombia, the government on Wednesday resumed peace talks with the rebels of the National Liberation Army, or ELN by its initials in Spanish. Petro wants the two sides to pick up where they left off in 2019, when the previous Colombian government called negotiations after the ELN killed 21 police cadets in a bombing in Bogotá. The ELN — at war with the government since the 1960s — was not party to the historic 2016 peace accord between the government and the much larger FARC guerrilla group. But the leftist Petro — who belonged to a guerrilla group himself in his youth — sees an opening for peace, as the ELN responded well to his election victory. One big question is whether the group’s older political leaders, who have lived in Cuban exile for years, have enough sway over younger members in Colombia today to enforce a sustainable peace. Petro is also counting on goodwill from guerrilla-friendly Venezuela, one of the guarantor countries in the talks. Colombia has recently resumed diplomatic ties and reopened the border with its neighbor.
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What We're Watching: Khan charged, Petro the peacemaker, Finland's partying PM, Russia-Ukraine latest
Former Pakistani PM charged under terror act
A Pakistani judge charged Monday former ousted PM Imran Khan with violating the anti-terror act for threatening judicial officers in a speech. Khan has been granted bail, but he could face several years in prison if he's convicted of the terror charge. Since he was removed in a no-confidence vote in April, the former PM has been touring the country, leading huge rallies trying to pressure the government into calling a snap election. Khan is plotting his comeback boosted by his resurgent popularity, which helped his party win a recent election in Punjab, the country's most populous province. The turmoil comes at the worst possible time for Pakistan, embroiled in a severe economic crisis: poor Pakistanis are suffering the most from double-digit inflation, and the country is on the brink of default on its sovereign debt. Khan's supporters have warned they'll march on Islamabad if he's arrested, so keep an eye out for Thursday, when the former PM is scheduled to appear before the judge. Meanwhile, he's been banned from speaking in public and his speeches removed from YouTube.
Petro’s ELN olive branch
Delivering on his campaign promise to bring "total peace" to Colombia, newly minted President Gustavo Petro has suspended arrest warrants and extradition requests for National Liberation Army members in order to restart peace talks with the Marxist armed group, at war with the government since 1964. Petro says that the two sides will begin where they left off in 2019, when the previous government called off the talks in Cuba after the ELN killed 21 police cadets in a bombing in Bogotá. Previous efforts to end decades of violence have failed due to internal divisions within the group, yet the leftist Petro — himself a former member of the leftist M-19 guerrillas — believes he has an opening because the ELN responded well to his election. Still, most of the group’s political leaders have been in their Cuban exile for decades, and it’s unclear if they carry much sway with younger ELN fighters in the countryside.
Can a prime minister party like a rockstar?
Finnish PM Sanna Marin has come under a political firestorm over a leaked video of her partying with celebrities, sparking a debate in the famously egalitarian Nordic country. For her supporters, she has every right to have a good time with her friends when she's not on the job, and there would be no scandal if Marin were not a young woman. But her critics say that reveling is inappropriate for a PM — especially of a country that wants to join NATO because it feels threatened by Russia. Interestingly, the clip surfaced online Wednesday, the same day Finland announced it would limit to 500 the daily number of Russian tourist visas amid a recent surge in arrivals. Marin — who's gotten flak in the past for attending rock festivals or going late-night clubbing without her phone — defended herself from the backlash. The world's second-youngest national leader at 34 — only Chilean President Gabriel Boric is now her junior — has taken a drug test to prove she didn't do anything illegal.