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People attend a rally to protest against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu as part of a corruption investigation in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 29, 2025.
Mass protests target Erdogan’s grip on power in Turkey
Five days after the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, said it would no longer hold protests against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over the arrest of its presidential candidate, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, hundreds of thousands of people flooded the streets of the capital on Saturday. Now, the CHP has vowed to continue the protests until the authorities release Imamoglu and clear him to run for the presidency.
Fall from grace. Just three weeks ago, Erdogan’s government was on a winning streak. The Assad regime — a staunch opponent — had fallen in Syria, a rebel Kurdish group had laid down their weapons, and the Turkish economy was looking relatively rosy. Now, the Turkish leader is on his back foot. Erdogan has tried to crush the rebellion, arresting thousands of protestors, but this latest protest suggests that the demonstrators are in it for the long haul. And the Turkish economy is now in retreat.
It’s strictly business. A crackdown on journalists continues, with several having been detained in recent days. Swedish reporter Joakim Medin was arrested as soon as he touched down in Turkey on Thursday for allegedly insulting the president. This followed the arrest and deportation of BBC reporter Mark Lowen earlier in the week.
Stern words. “This is more than the slow erosion of democracy. It is the deliberate dismantling of our republic’s institutional foundations,” the imprisoned Imamoglu wrote in a New York Times op-ed. The opposition leader also panned democratic governments across the globe for failing to denounce the Turkish government. “Their silence is deafening,” he wrote.
But there have been demonstrations in European cities in solidarity with the protesters in Istanbul, and many inside Turkey and around the world are wondering whether the man who has led the bicontinental country since 2003 can hang on amid the uproar.
US travel warnings issued by its closest allies
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Why are some countries issuing travel advisories for visiting the United States?
You'd call it an abundance of caution, but things are moving very quickly in the US. It's only been two months since Trump has been inaugurated. And many countries, allies of the US, feel that treatment of their citizens will not be aligned with rule of law in the United States. Certainly, worry given, for example, some green card holders facing deportation for what would be considered for an American citizen just exercise of freedom of speech, freedom of organization.
Also, they've seen what's happened with law firms and the chilling impact of Trump going after them if they are engaged in supporting lawsuits against the government. All of those things and a recognition that these are moving fast and getting more challenging quickly, quickly, quickly, is making a whole bunch of American allies issue travel advisories telling their citizens, "You shouldn't be traveling to the US right now." We've already seen a big economic impact of Canada tourism to the United States hurting the US economy. Haven't seen that as much from Europe yet, but I expect that you will. And of course, in terms of people that are applying for green cards and wanting to get jobs in top American corporations or apply to be students at top American universities, I think that's going to have a big impact going forward longer term.
How are the political tensions in Netanyahu's government impacting the war with Hamas?
Well, the fact that the far-right coalition is fully back together because the war has restarted. That's why the far-right party left, and that was because they didn't like the ceasefire and they certainly were opposed to phase two that would've led to the Israelis to do a full pullout of the military from Gaza. Well, now the war has restarted, the Israeli government is talking directly about annexation if the hostages are not all released. And they're doing that with full support of the United States. Big demonstrations in Israel, concerned that Israel is no longer going to be a democracy, especially because the prime minister has now sacked his Attorney General, has sacked the head of the Shin Bet, both unprecedented for Israel since independence. But Netanyahu has full support from his coalition and from the United States. So, he's in a strong position right now.
Will public outcry over the arrest of Istanbul's mayor lead to major political reforms or shifts within the Turkish government?
I don't expect so at all. They are allowing for large demonstrations to continue in Istanbul, even though President Erdogan has said that's illegal, in part because there's a lot of media there. There's a lot of focus there. They clearly want to limit that violence. But they've been cracking down really hard everywhere else in the country, including the capital, Ankara. They've dealt with this sort of thing in the past. The military is fully aligned with Erdogan, and the top is quite politicized. Media, dido, overwhelmingly aligned with the state. So is the judiciary after the failed coup attempt.
So for all of those reasons, I think this is going to be a move from Erdogan towards a more direct autocracy as opposed to a hybrid system. Unfortunate and yet one more place where the Europeans are in trouble. But nonetheless he's been quite useful to a number of other countries around the world in terms of dealing with refugees from Syria. If you're the Europeans, dealing with Turkey on the ground, dealing with Syria on the ground, and stability if you're the United States. And the Gulf States have found him useful as an interlocutor as well on Russia-Ukraine too. So for all of those reasons, very important internationally, very repressive domestically. Two things I expect to continue.
A person holds a placard during a protest on the day Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was jailed as part of a corruption investigation, in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 23, 2025.
Imamoglu arrested as protests rock Turkey
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was formally arrested, charged with corruption, and jailed on Sunday. His detainment last Wednesday sparked widespread mass protests across Turkey, with hundreds of thousands taking to the streets in cities including Istanbul, Ankara, and İzmir, despite a four-day ban on public gatherings.
Over 300 people have been arrested, and the government has demanded that X suspend the accounts of protest organizers. The country also banned short-selling and eased buyback rules to help stabilize markets after the benchmark stock index fell significantly last week.
Despite Imamoglu's arrest, his party proceeded with its internal vote Sunday to confirm him as its presidential candidate. While his arrest is likely to sideline him politically ahead of the next vote, it could also fuel a cycle of further protests and crackdowns by authorities. Forty-seven other people were also imprisoned on related charges pending trial, including a political aide and two district mayors, while 44 other suspects were released under judicial control.
What’s behind the government’s tough line? Imamoglu and his supporters claim that the charges are politically motivated, part of a crackdown ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. To run again, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, 71, who has ruled for 22 years as prime minister and president, would have to convince Parliament to hold early elections before the end of his second five-year presidential term. That is the only way he would be permitted to run again under Turkey’s constitution. The popular Imamoglu is seen as a chief rival for the job.
Will there be international pressure? A year ago, Erdogan’s crackdown could have been expected to get the cold shoulder in Washington. But in 2025, his warm relations with US President Donald Trump, Ankara’s support for the transition in Syria, and Turkey’s willingness to back up European security guarantees for a ceasefire in Ukraine will likely insulate the Turkish president from international isolation.
Ekrem Imamoglu, from Republican People's Party, is seen as one of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's strongest political rivals.
Turkey arrests Erdoğan’s chief political rival days before presidential primary
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan launched a widespread crackdown on his political opposition Wednesday when police arrested Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu just days before the popular opposition leader was set to win his party’s presidential nod.
İmamoğlu emerged as Erdoğan’s chief rival after winning the top job in the nation’s largest city in 2019. Erdoğan’s conservative religious Justice and Development Party, whose candidate came in second place for a position seen as a stepping stone to higher office, demanded a recount – then a rerun – of the election. İmamoğlu netted even more votes the second time and won reelection last year.
The mayor’s secular Republican People’s Party was expected to nominate him for president on Sunday.
On Tuesday, Istanbul University revoked İmamoğlu’s diploma, citing alleged irregularities in his transcripts from when he transferred in 1990 from a private college in northern Cyprus. İmamoğlu was expected to appeal the decision, which effectively barred him from seeking the highest office.
Then, on Wednesday, police arrested İmamoğlu and more than 100 of his political allies amid a corruption and terror probe.
“A handful of minds are trying to usurp the will of the nation by using our beloved policemen … as an instrument of evil,” İmamoğlu said in a video filmed in his closet as he donned a tie while the police were outside his house. “Let my nation know I will continue to stand firm. I will continue to fight against that man.”
Financial blowback: The Turkish lira plunged Wednesday to a record low against the dollar.
Public response? Erdoğan’s allies issued a four-day ban on public demonstrations and press statements but that has not stopped protesters from taking to the streets in a show of anger. A representative from İmamoğlu's party is set to address supporters in Istanbul today, and several demonstrations are planned on the city's university campuses.
President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, photographed at the Presidential palace in Athens, Greece, on December 7, 2023.
Is Turkey on a roll these days?
With so much of the world in geopolitical flux these days, it’s hard to pick clear winners or losers. But one leader who could be pretty happy about how things are going at the moment is Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
The Turkish president has been in power for more than 20 years. Now he’s angling to stick around even beyond his current term limits, which expire in 2028. Luckily for him, a number of things are suddenly going right at once.
“He has more of a chance to realize his foreign policy, security, and economic objectives than he’s had in well over a decade,” says Emre Peker, Eurasia Group’s top Turkey expert.
Let’s take a look at the hit parade:
First, the Assad regime in Syria is gone. Erdogan had worked towards this for years, hoping that Bashar Assad’s fall and the end of the Syrian civil war would hasten the return of millions of Syrian refugees living in Turkey – so far more than 80,000 have returned – while also opening up opportunities for Turkish economic and strategic influence in the country.
Ankara has already laid the groundwork for a military partnership with the new Syrian government of Ahmad al-Sharaa, whose HTS militia overthrew Assad back in December with Turkish help.
Second, the Kurdish problem may be nearing a resolution. The main Kurdish militant group, the PKK, has suggested it is willing to lay down its arms after 40 years of armed struggle against the Turkish state. (See more here.) If so, it would bring to an end a once-intractable conflict that has left tens of thousands dead.
Third, a possible ceasefire in Ukraine could be a boon, opening up reconstruction opportunities in Ukraine for Turkey’s world-class construction firms. Erdogan, who has good ties with Russia but has also positioned Turkey as a potential peacemaker in the war, has taken care to show support recently for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, even as Washington distances itself from Kyiv.
And if the Trump Administration really does reduce its defense commitments to Europe – as the EU now vividly fears – Turkey could benefit both as a supplier of arms to the EU and as a critical interlocutor between the continent and Russia, with whom Erdogan has cultivated friendly relations, to the chagrin of its NATO allies.
Lastly, the economy is perking up. True, inflation is still at 39%, but that’s the lowest level in nearly two years, and the central bank has been cautiously cutting rates to keep up the economic momentum: Turkey’s GDP grew 3.2% last year, beating expectations.
But there are huge caveats to all of this, says Peker.
First, Syria could just as easily blow up as glow up. The country is a sectarian patchwork ravaged by decades of dictatorship and years of civil war. The new government of jihadist-turned-statesman al-Sharaa has yet to prove that it can achieve stability. On Friday, violence exploded between government forces and the Alawite minority that the Assads themselves hailed from.
“If that spirals out of control,” says Peker, “it will encourage other militias to try to secure more autonomy for themselves, which could create instability on Turkey's border – in which case Erdogan’s dreams of economically benefiting from the new Syria would go down the drain.”
Second, the Kurdish solution will require a careful compromise. Erdogan’s Islamist AK party is supported by the far-right MHP party. But even together they don’t have the votes that Erdogan needs to change the constitution or call early elections – the only two ways he can get around the 2028 term limit.
The support of Kurdish parties could get Erdogan over the line, but it’s a narrow path: Erdogan will need to grant the Kurds just enough autonomy and cultural rights to seal the end of the conflict, but without giving them so much that his nationalist partners in the MHP balk.
Third, Trump’s realignment won’t necessarily help Erdogan.
Turkey can in principle benefit from Europe’s new plans to Trump-proof itself by spending more than $800 billion on defense, but European governments may prefer to keep that spending – and the resulting jobs – in the EU rather than give Turkey a piece of the action.
And if Washington really does fold up its European security umbrella and go home, Ankara could be in big trouble. Turkey’s Incirlik airbase is home to dozens of American nuclear weapons and thousands of US troops.
“Turkey is a massive beneficiary of the American security umbrella,” says Peker. “If that were to deteriorate, that would be detrimental to Turkey regardless of how robust its defense industry is becoming.”
In all, it’s more of a mixed bag for Erdogan than it may at first appear. Although a lot of things are coming up aces for Erdogan these days, says Peker, “it’s hardly a given that Turkey really comes out of this strengthened, victorious, and able to throw its weight around however it wants.”
Syrian Kurds gather with flags as Turkey's jailed militant leader Abdullah Ocalan calls on his Kurdistan Workers Party to lay down its arms last week in Hasakah, Syria.
Kurdish rebels declare ceasefire, but what’s the quid pro quo?
So why stop fighting? Perhaps, freedom. Last October, staunch Turkish nationalist Devlet Bahceliinvited Ocalan to come to parliament and “declare that he has laid down his arms” – and intimated that his life sentence could be lifted. This weekend, Bahceli, whose party is the largest partner in Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s coalition,welcomed Ocalan’s call for disbanding the PKK, calling it a “valuable and important” statement.
The move also comes as Erdogan seeks support for constitutional changes that would allow him to run for a third term in 2028, and the backing of the pro-Kurdish DEM party could be key. In the past two months, DEM Party representativeshave paid three visits to Ocalan, the first since members of the party’s predecessor, the Peoples’ Democratic Party, met with him in April 2015. Ocalan’s nephew, Omer Ocalan, a member of the Turkish Parliament, also visited and shared a message from his uncle on social media.
Will the ceasefire hold? It’s not clear, and a similar agreement in 2013 failed to endure. The deal must also first be accepted by Turkey and is complicated by the fact that the PKK is still classified as a terrorist organization by that country, the US, and the EU. We’re watching for Erdogan’s next move – and whether Ocalan’s liberation follows.
Kurdish fighters from the People's Protection Units (YPG) take part in a military parade as they celebrate victory over the Islamic state, in Qamishli, Syria March 28, 2019.
Will Turkey attack Syria’s Kurds?
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan threatened this week to launch attacks against Kurdish-led forces in northeastern Syria. During an interview broadcast late Tuesday, he said that if the US-backed paramilitary People’s Protection Units (usually known by their Kurdish initialism YPG) fail to lay down their arms and expel foreign fighters, Turkey “will do what’s necessary,” including “a military operation.”
Wait, aren’t the YPG and Turkey both US allies? Yes, but that hasn’t stopped Turkey from attacking the Kurds in the past, as Fidan pointed out. “This is what our national security requires,” he said.
Ankara has a longstanding internal conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party on its side of the border, which is also considered a terrorist group by the US and Turkey’s European allies.
Attacking the YPG is unlikely to trigger a significant US response, and Turkey would also like to bolster the newly friendly regime in Damascus led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Washington is slowly warming to HTS as well. The Biden administration moved to lift some restrictions on humanitarian aid sent to Syria on Monday, though it stopped short of fully lifting sanctions. We’re watching for HTS to play nice in the short term as it seeks to get out from under the restrictions imposed on the regime of Bashar Assad.
FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attends the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, November 19, 2024.
Turkey offers to mediate in Sudanese civil war
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Sudanese Armed Forces Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan on Friday offering to help resolve the country’s civil war by mediating negotiations with the rebels and their alleged backers, the United Arab Emirates. The offer comes just days after Erdoğan negotiated an agreement to avoid conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia over port access, as Turkey looms ever larger in the politics of the Horn of Africa.
An end to the fighting is desperately needed. Nearly 15 million Sudanese have fled their homes, according to the International Organization for Migration, one of the worst refugee crises in modern history. Aid organizations struggle to reach major population centers due to intense fighting, leading to widespread hunger and disease. And in the western region of Darfur, Rapid Support Forces are accused of carrying out genocidal violence and mass rape against Black ethnic groups like the Masalit and Fur.
US and Saudi-led negotiations produced a ceasefire in May of 2023, only for it to collapse within 24 hours. Since then, the violence has raged unchecked. SAF airstrikes have devastated the capital Khartoum, but they are unable to dislodge RSF infantry, allegedly supplied via UAE airlifts to neighboring Chad. Abu Dhabi denies any involvement.
Why is Turkey getting involved? For a shot at swaying the post-war order in its favor. Ankara and Abu Dhabi’s relations have been severely strained in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring, when they have found themselves backing opposing sides of crises in Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and Qatar, as well as diplomatic normalization with Israel. Finding a mediated end to the war reduces the risk that the allegedly Emirati-backed RSF comes out on top.
Avoiding that outcome plays into Turkey’s broader strategy in northeast Africa, which it sees as a key source of future economic growth and political clout. Turkey spent the last decade actively encouraging investment and trade with Sudan and Ethiopia, and the military has provided major backing to Somalia in an effort to stabilize the strategically-placed country. A stable, Turkish-aligned Red Sea coast could present both a tempting market and a key check on regional rivals in the Middle East.