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Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen is pictured at his residence in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania in this December 28, 2004 file photo.
Turkish president’s nemesis dies in the US
An exiled Turkish cleric who founded a global Islamic movement and was an adversary rival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan died Sunday in the United States.
Fethullah Gülen rose from small-town preacher to global leader of a movement built around a moderate, civically engaged vision of Islam, which built schools and other social institutions across Turkey and more than a hundred other countries.
“Gülenists” had a strong, if secretive, presence in the Turkish bureaucracy. But Gülen himself had lived in the US since 1999, when he fled repression by the ultra-secular Turkish government of the time.
The politics: Gülen was once close with Erdogan, whose Justice and Development party in 2002 became the first Islamist party to win power in Turkey. But by the mid-2010s, the two men had begun to clash.
The break was complete in 2016, when Erdogan accused Gülen of orchestrating a failed coup against him. Turkey arrested thousands of alleged Gülenist “terrorists” in government and forced dozens of countries to extradite Gülen’s followers.
That significantly weakened Gülenism. Whether Gülen’s death will hasten further decline remains to be seen. In the short term, his passing removes a sore spot in US-Turkey relations: Washington had repeatedly denied Ankara’s requests to extradite him.
Why Egypt and Turkey finally resumed relations
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What's going to be the division of responsibilities in the new European Commission of Ursula von der Leyen?
Well, I think we'll get a hint of that towards the end of the week, where she is supposed to present her proposal before it goes then to the European Parliament and then eventually for ratification, be that early November, or whenever. There's a significant battle, primarily over the key economic portfolios. The Italians are demanding that their nominee, Fitto, be a minister in the government, should be given a key economic role. That's somewhat controversial, because he also will be the representative of the extreme right part of the European political spectrum. The French, needless to say, want to have their present commissioner, Breton, who’s been key with the outgoing commission, as an even more important personality. So that's going to be one of the battles. Another battle is that the Hungarians want to retain control of enlargement that will, in all probability, be refused. And then trade, financial affairs, budgets are going to be heavily contested or the focus, as well.
What's the significance of the visit of Egypt's President el-Sisi to Turkey?
Well, it is really a reconciliation after what happened in 2013 when el-Sisi staged the military coup against President Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood president, who had been elected, and was heavily supported by President Erdogan, who made a jubilant visit to Cairo at the time. So, the relationship between these two important countries in eastern Mediterranean soured very considerably after 2013. And it's been a long road back to a more normal relationship that is now being established between Turkey and Egypt.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a joint statement to the media in Baghdad, Iraq April 22, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Erdoğan cannot bank on change, US asks EU to double down on sanctions, SCOTUS mifepristone ruling may not be final word, Chile’s giant camera, Menendez and his love of steak
5: Turkey’s Constitutional Court has ruled that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lacks the authority to fire the country’s central bank governor, a move he’s madefive times in the past five years. It’s a remarkable rebuke for a leader who is battling 75% annual inflation and has repeatedly compromised the independence of Turkey’s leading institutions.
50 billion: According to a leaked document, the US intends to organize a$50 billion loan for Ukraine that’s repaid by profits from frozen Russian assets – but only if the EU agrees to indefinitely extend sanctions against Moscow. Washington wants to avoid accepting full responsibility for the loan if the EU lifts sanctions before the end of the war.
60: The US Supreme Court must rule by the end of the court term in late June or early July on continued legal access to the drug mifepristone, which is used inmore than 60% of all US abortions. But even if they strike down the current challenge to mifepristone, the justices could leave an opening for Missouri, Kansas, and Idaho, each of which has a Republican attorney general, to try to quickly revive the challenge to abortion pills.
3.2: Chile is set to install the largest digital camera ever built for optical astronomy, with a resolution above3.2 gigapixels, in the Atacama Desert. The camera will weigh nearly three tons and is designed to help scientists understand the nature of dark energy and dark matter in the universe.
250: A lawyer representing Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) told a judge presiding over Menendez’s trial on corruption charges, that his client dines at Washington’s famed Morton’s Steakhouse250 nights a year. That may not suggest Menendez is corrupt, but it certainly made this newsletter team feel poor – and a little bit hungrier.
Israel's global image wanes further after killing of aid workers
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Netanyahu losing the PR battle amid public outrage over the IDF strike killing seven aid workers?
I think Israel is losing the information war around the world, not just with the Global South, which was certainly true a few months ago, but increasingly even with Israel's closest allies. I'm hearing from the Germans, from the French, you know, from the Canadians, from the United States, that there is really a lot of upset with the unwillingness to take far greater care about civilian casualties while the Israelis are engaging in massive airstrikes still across Gaza. And of course, especially if we see strikes into Rafah, where well over a million Palestinians are trying to shelter. It's a big problem for the Israelis. It's a big problem for Netanyahu, but no end in sight, right now. And the potential for the war to escalate continues to be very, very real.
What's needed to garner bipartisan support for Speaker Mike Johnson's bill for increased Ukraine aid?
We have bipartisan support. There is overwhelming majority support among Democrats and Republicans to pass aid for Ukraine, likely 60 billion. Could be structured as a loan. Doesn't really matter. It’s not like anyone believes the Ukrainians will be in a position to pay it off any time soon. Makes it more palatable for Trump supporters who have heard the former president say, “not one more dime in direct foreign aid,” has to all be structured as loans in case we don't like them in the future, then they have to pay it back. What if they can't? Who knows? But anyway, that's the structure. The point is that the Ukrainians who have continued to be able to mostly hold their defensive lines, they've lost some territory recently, in part because they don't have enough troops on the ground. They are pushing through more mobilization, but also because they don't have enough artillery and ammunition, enough military equipment. And that is coming some from the Europeans, more soon from the Americans this month, I suspect the next couple of weeks that happens.
What's the significance of Turkey's recent local elections setback for President Erdogan's government?
It is the first time in a couple of decades since Erdogan took power that his party did not win. They didn't get a majority, and instead it was the opposition. And that's a big deal. Even those municipal elections. Look, it doesn't mean the end of Erdogan. He doesn't have to stand for presidential elections, no parliamentary elections until 2028. So it's quite a while. But it does show that elections matter in a country like Turkey as much as Erdogan would like them not to. And it is mostly about lack of comfort with his government's performance on the economy, a lot more pressure to perform adequately. And the mayor of Istanbul is an erstwhile serious challenger to the Turkish president. So, I mean, his ability to change the constitution and consolidate more power, his ability to ensure that his party is going to be in control after 2028 has just gone down quite a bit. And that means he has to be more careful, more cautious and more focused on performing on the economy for his own people.
Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, mayoral candidate of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), celebrate following the early results in front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) in Istanbul, Turkey March 31, 2024.
Turkey’s AI elections
Voters across Turkey went to the polls on Sunday for local elections nationwide. While Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wasn’t on the ballot, observers expected the Turkish president to change the constitution to extend his own term limits should his AK Party win with enough of a mandate. Instead, the opposition Republican People’s Party won in a shock victory.
The consequential nature of these elections heightened concerns about disinformation spread with AI-generated media. Earlier this year, an AI-generated voiceover was used to alter a video of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu to show him praising Erdoğan. Imamoğlu is a chief rival of the Turkish president and has served as mayor since 2019.
There have also been allegations of blackmail using AI. One politician, the former professional soccer player Gokhan Zan, withdrew his mayoral candidacy in the province of Hatay after receiving threats to release a video showing him taking bribes, a video he claims was generated with AI.
Erdoğan now faces the prospect of four years in power with an emboldened opposition led by the charismatic Imamoğlu. We’re watching for how each side harnesses AI to scrap for power in one of the world’s most important — and most flawed — democratic systems.
Supporters of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, mayoral candidate of the main opposition party, celebrate in front of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 31, 2024.
Turkish voters punish Erdogan in local elections
Turks delivered a blow to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday in local elections amid crippling inflation. The opposition beat Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, in Turkey's five biggest cities, with the biggest result rocking Istanbul's mayoral race
Erdoğan wanted his party’s candidate, former Environment Minister Murat Kurum, to unseat popular opposition Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu in Turkey's largest city. But Imamoğlu was ahead by 10 percentage points early Monday, with most of the ballots counted.
Imamoğlu’s victory in the 2019 elections was a serious rebuke to Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party, or AK Party, which had controlled the metropolis since 2004. Erdoğan launched his career in national politics from the mayorship, which he won in 1994 — and he wanted to prevent Imamoğlu from following in his footsteps.
Erdoğan heavily backed Kurum, going so far as to hold two preelection rallies in the city and attend prayers at the deeply symbolic Hagia Sophia mosque just ahead of the vote. The president based much of his appeal to Turkish voters on cultural issues and Islamist policy, in stark contrast to the secularism of the opposition CHP.
It's the economy, stupid. The win bolsters Imamoğlu's position as Erdoğan's main political rival. In the end, it likely came down to lira, as Erdoğan's economic policy has been disastrous. The country is struggling with a 70% inflation rate year-on-year, and interest rates are around 50%, putting tremendous pressure on businesses and families.
"At a time when Erdogan is looking to consolidate his power to rebalance the economy and maintain his foreign policy balancing act, these factors would pose fresh political challenges at home to Turkey's long-serving leader," says Emre Peker, a director for Eurasia Group’s Europe practice. While a general election won't happen anytime soon, Sunday's results will hurt Erdoğan’s hopes of a constitutional reform, leaving him in a weaker negotiating position.
FILE PHOTO: The President of the Republic of Turkey, Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speak at a press conference in Berlin on November 17th, 2023.
Still no Swedish meatballs at the NATO cantina
Just days after the Swedish foreign minister said he was confident his country would join NATO “within weeks,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has thrown up another roadblock.
If you’re counting, the process has now dragged on for more than 18 months, as Turkey and Hungary are the two NATO member holdouts blocking Sweden’s formal accession to the alliance.
Erdoğan says that while he’s “done his duty” by asking lawmakers to greenlight Sweden’s entry, he now expects Washington to reward him by approving his long-coveted purchase of US-made F-16 fighter jets. The Turkish president’s idea is that both processes should occur “simultaneously.”
But the US Congress doesn’t share that idea. Lawmakers in Washington won’t sign off on the F-16 sale “until Sweden is let into NATO,” according to Eurasia Group US Director Clayton Allen. And Erdoğan’s recent statements in support of Hamas and sanctions-busting trade with Russia will “make that even thornier,” he says.
Still, Erdoğan’s game isn’t to block Sweden indefinitely, but rather to engage in “diplomatic grandstanding and bazaar bargaining”, says Emre Peker, Europe analyst at Eurasia Group.
The inflection point, says Peker, will be Turkish local elections scheduled for next March. If Erdoğan detects political advantage in chastising the US and wagging his finger at NATO allies still, he can have his lawmakers withhold approval for Sweden until after that vote, if he likes.
Either way, that timeline would – in theory – make it possible to see Swedish meatballs on the menu at the NATO summit in Washington in July, commemorating the 75th anniversary of the alliance.
Will Israel's ban on UN staff impact peace efforts?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Israel's UN ban a blow to peace efforts?
If it was permanent, I'd say yes as it is. I think we won't be talking about it in a few days. Look, obviously, on the back of these horrific terrorist attacks, everyone in Israel is on edge and more willing to lash out when they hear anything that sounds not 100% aligned with the message they want to hear. I'm empathetic to that, and I expect they're going to back away, especially because the Secretary-General has been consistent in talking about how he has condemned Hamas terrorist attacks. You know, anyone can pick a sentence and cherry-pick it for their purposes. That's what's happened here. I think it's unfortunate. The Global South will certainly align more with the Secretary-General, as they always do. But Antonio then doubled down and clarified his statement on Hamas all the way through. I think this will not be a big deal.
Will Qatar's diplomacy efforts secure the release of Gaza hostages?
Meaning more Gaza hostages. We've got four out so far. I certainly think a lot more can be released if there is further delay for Israel on the ground assault. And, you know, frankly, I think that there's very good reason for the Israelis to continue to hold off. I mean, the fact of the matter is, you will get more citizens, not military people that have been captured, and there are a bunch of those, too. But I think, you know, women, children, infirm, the aged, the willingness of Hamas to let them go, buy themselves time, get more international support as they do it, less condemnation and work with the Qataris is probably pretty high. So I do think that that's going to happen. But I'd be very surprised if the Israelis are willing to wait for like a month before the invasion. It does feel to me increasingly soon.
How will Erdoğan's stance on Hamas impact Turkey's standing with the Western world?
Well, I mean, it's not new that Erdoğan has had warm relations with Hamas, supported Hamas, and certainly has not considered them a terrorist organization as the United States does. He also has recently, after the terrorist attacks, refused to condemn them. That is a harder-line policy than we see even from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia right now. And keep in mind, Turkey is a NATO ally. On the other hand, they're now letting the Sweden vote go through the parliament. So, I mean, the fact is that Turkey has always been a NATO's ally with challenges and they're never 100% aligned with the United States and most of Europe on most things. And this continues to be the case. But let's be clear that unlike the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where the entire West was aligned, on the Israeli response to the Hamas terrorist attacks, the West is not fully aligned. And certainly most of the world opposes Israel's military bombings. The extent of the bombings as well as the likely ground invasion. So in that regard, I think there's less to be seen here with Turkey's position.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.