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Kurdish fighters from the People's Protection Units (YPG) take part in a military parade as they celebrate victory over the Islamic state, in Qamishli, Syria March 28, 2019.
Will Turkey attack Syria’s Kurds?
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan threatened this week to launch attacks against Kurdish-led forces in northeastern Syria. During an interview broadcast late Tuesday, he said that if the US-backed paramilitary People’s Protection Units (usually known by their Kurdish initialism YPG) fail to lay down their arms and expel foreign fighters, Turkey “will do what’s necessary,” including “a military operation.”
Wait, aren’t the YPG and Turkey both US allies? Yes, but that hasn’t stopped Turkey from attacking the Kurds in the past, as Fidan pointed out. “This is what our national security requires,” he said.
Ankara has a longstanding internal conflict with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party on its side of the border, which is also considered a terrorist group by the US and Turkey’s European allies.
Attacking the YPG is unlikely to trigger a significant US response, and Turkey would also like to bolster the newly friendly regime in Damascus led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Washington is slowly warming to HTS as well. The Biden administration moved to lift some restrictions on humanitarian aid sent to Syria on Monday, though it stopped short of fully lifting sanctions. We’re watching for HTS to play nice in the short term as it seeks to get out from under the restrictions imposed on the regime of Bashar Assad.
FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attends the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, November 19, 2024.
Turkey offers to mediate in Sudanese civil war
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called Sudanese Armed Forces Gen. Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan on Friday offering to help resolve the country’s civil war by mediating negotiations with the rebels and their alleged backers, the United Arab Emirates. The offer comes just days after Erdoğan negotiated an agreement to avoid conflict between Ethiopia and Somalia over port access, as Turkey looms ever larger in the politics of the Horn of Africa.
An end to the fighting is desperately needed. Nearly 15 million Sudanese have fled their homes, according to the International Organization for Migration, one of the worst refugee crises in modern history. Aid organizations struggle to reach major population centers due to intense fighting, leading to widespread hunger and disease. And in the western region of Darfur, Rapid Support Forces are accused of carrying out genocidal violence and mass rape against Black ethnic groups like the Masalit and Fur.
US and Saudi-led negotiations produced a ceasefire in May of 2023, only for it to collapse within 24 hours. Since then, the violence has raged unchecked. SAF airstrikes have devastated the capital Khartoum, but they are unable to dislodge RSF infantry, allegedly supplied via UAE airlifts to neighboring Chad. Abu Dhabi denies any involvement.
Why is Turkey getting involved? For a shot at swaying the post-war order in its favor. Ankara and Abu Dhabi’s relations have been severely strained in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring, when they have found themselves backing opposing sides of crises in Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and Qatar, as well as diplomatic normalization with Israel. Finding a mediated end to the war reduces the risk that the allegedly Emirati-backed RSF comes out on top.
Avoiding that outcome plays into Turkey’s broader strategy in northeast Africa, which it sees as a key source of future economic growth and political clout. Turkey spent the last decade actively encouraging investment and trade with Sudan and Ethiopia, and the military has provided major backing to Somalia in an effort to stabilize the strategically-placed country. A stable, Turkish-aligned Red Sea coast could present both a tempting market and a key check on regional rivals in the Middle East.People celebrate after fighters of the ruling Syrian body ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Aleppo, Syria, December 13, 2024.
From Assad to Uncertainty
Syria’s new leadership claims it wants to prioritize stability and reconstruction over further conflict – but will that be possible? With Israel fortifying the Golan Heights, Turkey expanding its influence, and Russia retreating, we’re watching this week if Syria and its neighbours will manage to get along — and how allies and adversaries will react.
No new confrontation – for now. Inan interview given on Saturday to Syria TV, Ahmad al-Sharaa — formerly known by his nom de guerre “Abu Mohammed al-Golani” — the leader of the HTS, stated that despite Israel having “clearly crossed the lines of engagement in Syria”, the country’s war-weary condition “does not allow for new confrontations.” Instead, Al-Sharaa stated that HTS’ priorities are reconstruction and stability and called for diplomatic solutions to ensure Syria’s security.
Israel is still wary. Despite al-Sharaa’s moderate tone, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katzmaintained that security threats to Israel have not diminished. Israeli forces remain present in the buffer zone inside Syria and continue to conduct strikes on military targets. On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans todouble the Israeli population of the Golan Heights as a defensive measure against the “new front” that had opened up in the wake of Assad’s ouster, but says his country has "no interest in a conflict with Syria."
Iran steps out, Turkey steps in. Assad’s fall dealta severe blow to Tehran’s influence in Syria, a vacuum Ankara is only too happy to fill. Turkey has now offered toprovide military training to Syria's new administration if requested, and will maintain troops in several cities in northern Syria, where it has been conducting military operations since 2016. Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Güler said his country’s priority remains the elimination of Kurdish militias, which enjoy US backing but are considered terrorists by Turkey.
What about Russia? The other big loser in Syriais Moscow, which had heavily backed Assad’s regime for years, in exchange for strategic positions within the country including the Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus Naval Base. Recent satellite imagery has shown Russian forcespacking up military equipment and preparing for transport. The Kremlin has confirmed that Moscow isin discussions with HTS about retaining its two bases, but has withdrawn troops from frontline positions.
Will the United States fill the gap? US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday that Washington has beenactively engaging with Syria's new leadership but gave no details on when or at what level. Blinken met over the weekend with regional leaders in Jordan to discuss Syria’s future as well as seek the return of Austin Tice, an American journalist detained a decade ago in Syria.
Blinken also emphasized the importance of destroying chemical weapons and rejecting terrorism, warning that “This is a moment of vulnerability in which ISIS will seek to regroup.”
Could US policy change under Trump? When Assad’s government fell, President-elect Donald Trumpposted “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"
Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security adviser, told Fox News last week that Trump was elected with an overwhelming mandate to keep the United States out of regional wars, and that America's"core interests" remain ISIS, Israel and "our Gulf Arab allies". There are no indications that Trump or his team have reached out to HTS, but the President-elect has reportedly spoken with Netanyahuabout Israel’s plans to expand settlements in the Golan Heights.
Rebel factions successfully seized control of the city of Aleppo, Syria, on November 30, 2024, after intense clashes and fierce battles with Assad regime forces.
Syrian rebels reignite war, make advances in Aleppo
Anti-government forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar Assad launched a shock attack on the largest city, Aleppo, on Saturday. Amid the ongoing fighting, rebels have seized the city’s airport and military academy and struck the entrance of Aleppo University Hospital,killing 12 civilians and injuring 23 others. Led by the Salafi jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham — a terrorist organization with past ties to al-Qaida, now often but not always backed by Turkey – insurgents claim to control territory across Hama, Idlib, and Aleppo provinces. They are demanding that US-aligned Kurdish forces retreat from neighborhoods they hold in Aleppo.
Assad has ordered his forces to counterattack and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Damascus on Sunday. Russia also expressed support for its ally and claimed its forces in Syria had engaged with the rebels.
Why now? Israel’s destruction of Hezbollah in Lebanon seems to have helped tip the balance, according to Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker.
“HTS has been observing the shifting regional dynamics and agitating to take advantage of Assad’s relative weakness for months. With Russia preoccupied with Ukraine and Iran and its proxies effectively targeted by Israel, HTS felt the time was ripe to strike,” he said.
Peker elaborated that Ankara will back the rebels as long as their offensive also serves Turkish interests, whileRussia has lent what military support it can to Assad. “Erdogan will not want to oust Assad, rather to weaken him to both normalize Turkey-Syria relations and pave the way for a settlement to the 13-year-old Syrian civil war,” he said.
What about the US? The conflict creates a dilemma for Washington which under President Barack Obama supported rebel groups fighting Assad’s brutal dictatorship, but HTS’s fundamentalist roots are cause for concern. Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, noted the quandary: “Should [the US] be cheering the opposition taking over Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo, or should they actually worry about the city falling under Islamist rule?”
So far,the Biden administration has distanced itself from the offensive, calling for de-escalation and a political solution – but we’re watching how long Washington can stay on the sidelines if the conflict escalates.
Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen is pictured at his residence in Saylorsburg, Pennsylvania in this December 28, 2004 file photo.
Turkish president’s nemesis dies in the US
An exiled Turkish cleric who founded a global Islamic movement and was an adversary rival of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan died Sunday in the United States.
Fethullah Gülen rose from small-town preacher to global leader of a movement built around a moderate, civically engaged vision of Islam, which built schools and other social institutions across Turkey and more than a hundred other countries.
“Gülenists” had a strong, if secretive, presence in the Turkish bureaucracy. But Gülen himself had lived in the US since 1999, when he fled repression by the ultra-secular Turkish government of the time.
The politics: Gülen was once close with Erdogan, whose Justice and Development party in 2002 became the first Islamist party to win power in Turkey. But by the mid-2010s, the two men had begun to clash.
The break was complete in 2016, when Erdogan accused Gülen of orchestrating a failed coup against him. Turkey arrested thousands of alleged Gülenist “terrorists” in government and forced dozens of countries to extradite Gülen’s followers.
That significantly weakened Gülenism. Whether Gülen’s death will hasten further decline remains to be seen. In the short term, his passing removes a sore spot in US-Turkey relations: Washington had repeatedly denied Ankara’s requests to extradite him.
Why Egypt and Turkey finally resumed relations
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What's going to be the division of responsibilities in the new European Commission of Ursula von der Leyen?
Well, I think we'll get a hint of that towards the end of the week, where she is supposed to present her proposal before it goes then to the European Parliament and then eventually for ratification, be that early November, or whenever. There's a significant battle, primarily over the key economic portfolios. The Italians are demanding that their nominee, Fitto, be a minister in the government, should be given a key economic role. That's somewhat controversial, because he also will be the representative of the extreme right part of the European political spectrum. The French, needless to say, want to have their present commissioner, Breton, who’s been key with the outgoing commission, as an even more important personality. So that's going to be one of the battles. Another battle is that the Hungarians want to retain control of enlargement that will, in all probability, be refused. And then trade, financial affairs, budgets are going to be heavily contested or the focus, as well.
What's the significance of the visit of Egypt's President el-Sisi to Turkey?
Well, it is really a reconciliation after what happened in 2013 when el-Sisi staged the military coup against President Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood president, who had been elected, and was heavily supported by President Erdogan, who made a jubilant visit to Cairo at the time. So, the relationship between these two important countries in eastern Mediterranean soured very considerably after 2013. And it's been a long road back to a more normal relationship that is now being established between Turkey and Egypt.
Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a joint statement to the media in Baghdad, Iraq April 22, 2024.
Hard Numbers: Erdoğan cannot bank on change, US asks EU to double down on sanctions, SCOTUS mifepristone ruling may not be final word, Chile’s giant camera, Menendez and his love of steak
5: Turkey’s Constitutional Court has ruled that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lacks the authority to fire the country’s central bank governor, a move he’s madefive times in the past five years. It’s a remarkable rebuke for a leader who is battling 75% annual inflation and has repeatedly compromised the independence of Turkey’s leading institutions.
50 billion: According to a leaked document, the US intends to organize a$50 billion loan for Ukraine that’s repaid by profits from frozen Russian assets – but only if the EU agrees to indefinitely extend sanctions against Moscow. Washington wants to avoid accepting full responsibility for the loan if the EU lifts sanctions before the end of the war.
60: The US Supreme Court must rule by the end of the court term in late June or early July on continued legal access to the drug mifepristone, which is used inmore than 60% of all US abortions. But even if they strike down the current challenge to mifepristone, the justices could leave an opening for Missouri, Kansas, and Idaho, each of which has a Republican attorney general, to try to quickly revive the challenge to abortion pills.
3.2: Chile is set to install the largest digital camera ever built for optical astronomy, with a resolution above3.2 gigapixels, in the Atacama Desert. The camera will weigh nearly three tons and is designed to help scientists understand the nature of dark energy and dark matter in the universe.
250: A lawyer representing Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) told a judge presiding over Menendez’s trial on corruption charges, that his client dines at Washington’s famed Morton’s Steakhouse250 nights a year. That may not suggest Menendez is corrupt, but it certainly made this newsletter team feel poor – and a little bit hungrier.
Israel's global image wanes further after killing of aid workers
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Netanyahu losing the PR battle amid public outrage over the IDF strike killing seven aid workers?
I think Israel is losing the information war around the world, not just with the Global South, which was certainly true a few months ago, but increasingly even with Israel's closest allies. I'm hearing from the Germans, from the French, you know, from the Canadians, from the United States, that there is really a lot of upset with the unwillingness to take far greater care about civilian casualties while the Israelis are engaging in massive airstrikes still across Gaza. And of course, especially if we see strikes into Rafah, where well over a million Palestinians are trying to shelter. It's a big problem for the Israelis. It's a big problem for Netanyahu, but no end in sight, right now. And the potential for the war to escalate continues to be very, very real.
What's needed to garner bipartisan support for Speaker Mike Johnson's bill for increased Ukraine aid?
We have bipartisan support. There is overwhelming majority support among Democrats and Republicans to pass aid for Ukraine, likely 60 billion. Could be structured as a loan. Doesn't really matter. It’s not like anyone believes the Ukrainians will be in a position to pay it off any time soon. Makes it more palatable for Trump supporters who have heard the former president say, “not one more dime in direct foreign aid,” has to all be structured as loans in case we don't like them in the future, then they have to pay it back. What if they can't? Who knows? But anyway, that's the structure. The point is that the Ukrainians who have continued to be able to mostly hold their defensive lines, they've lost some territory recently, in part because they don't have enough troops on the ground. They are pushing through more mobilization, but also because they don't have enough artillery and ammunition, enough military equipment. And that is coming some from the Europeans, more soon from the Americans this month, I suspect the next couple of weeks that happens.
What's the significance of Turkey's recent local elections setback for President Erdogan's government?
It is the first time in a couple of decades since Erdogan took power that his party did not win. They didn't get a majority, and instead it was the opposition. And that's a big deal. Even those municipal elections. Look, it doesn't mean the end of Erdogan. He doesn't have to stand for presidential elections, no parliamentary elections until 2028. So it's quite a while. But it does show that elections matter in a country like Turkey as much as Erdogan would like them not to. And it is mostly about lack of comfort with his government's performance on the economy, a lot more pressure to perform adequately. And the mayor of Istanbul is an erstwhile serious challenger to the Turkish president. So, I mean, his ability to change the constitution and consolidate more power, his ability to ensure that his party is going to be in control after 2028 has just gone down quite a bit. And that means he has to be more careful, more cautious and more focused on performing on the economy for his own people.