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North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the National Defense University in Pyongyang, North Korea, October 7, 2024, in this photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency.
North Korea severs connections to South as tensions climb
South Korea’s military announced Monday it had detected North Korea preparing to destroy roads connecting the two countries, the latest in a series of steps advancing Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s renunciation of peaceful reunification. Pyongyang also threatened to attack the South over alleged drone incursions this weekend and announced it would begin fortifying its side of the border last week.
Kim’s sister and close ally Kim Yo Jong also flung invective at Seoul’s troops on Monday, calling them “mongrels tamed by Yankees” and saying that their “master” — the US — must be held accountable for the alleged drone flights over the Hermit Kingdom. On Friday, South Korea’s defense minister denied responsibility for the drones, which allegedly dropped anti-regime leaflets, and later said “we cannot verify the truth behind North Korea’s claims.” It is highly likely that any drones were flown by private organizations that attempt to agitate in North Korea and have distributed leaflets by balloon in the past.
All in all, Pyongyang’s provocations — which, lest we forget, include deploying troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine — are part of a pattern of escalation dating back to at least the fall of 2023, says Eurasia Group regional analyst Jeremy Chan. Whether it continues may depend heavily on the results of the US election, as “North Korea is trying to build out leverage it could bargain away in a potential future Trump administration while retaining its nuclear deterrent,” says Chan.
Trump’s advisors have signaled an openness to accepting a freeze in North Korea’s nuclear program – rather than full denuclearization – in return for sanctions relief. “But a freeze probably isn’t going to be enough for Trump,” says Chan. “If Kim could also agree to a moratorium on developing North Korea’s nuclear-powered submarines, military spy satellites, and long-range missiles, however, that could give enough of a win to Trump to sell to the American people.”
People stand amid damage caused by Israeli airstrikes, as smoke rises over Beirut southern suburbs, amid ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, at Choueifat district, in Beirut, Lebanon, October 3, 2024.
Netanyahu escalates, buoyed by strong backing at home
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be on a roll.
Over the past week, Israel has pummeled Hezbollah targets across Lebanon – killing more than a thousand people in the process – assassinated the group’s leader, blown up a Houthi port in Yemen, and launched Israel’s first ground invasion of its northern neighbor since 2006. All of this as Israeli forces continue to pound the Gaza Strip.
Now, the Israeli leader is threatening to make Iran “pay a price” for its ballistic missile barrage of Tuesday night.
One reason why Netanyahu is so emboldened? This stuff is popular with his people. A new poll by the Israel Democracy Institute shows 80% of Israelis, and 90% of Israeli Jews, support the campaign to cripple longtime nemesis Hezbollah and reestablish security in northern Israel, where the militant group’s rocket fire has displaced roughly 60,000 Israelis.
A separate study conducted by Direct Polls shows support for Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud Party jumped after the recent pager attacks against Hezbollah, reaching pre-Oct. 7, 2023, levels for the first time.
This is a big turnaround. Even before the Hamas attacks last October, Netanyahu was on the ropes over corruption charges and his controversial judicial reforms, which sparked months of protests. Then, his support cratered as he was blamed for Israel’s worst-ever security failure, and because of divisions over whether to prioritize freeing the hostages or “destroying” Hamas.
But the ever-wily Netanyahu has now pivoted from divisive issues to unifying ones, tapping into a sense of siege and cohesion among Israeli Jews that transcends other political differences.
This is heady stuff, but how far is Netanyahu willing to escalate in a region that is already on the brink of a wider war?