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Is the Georgian Dream the West’s nightmare?
Opposition coalitions in the country of Georgia and its pro-Western President Salome Zourabichvili are accusing the incumbent Georgian Dream of stealing Saturday’s election, calling the results “falsified” and a “constitutional coup.” While the country’s electoral commission declared Georgian Dream the winner with 54% of the vote, several exit polls predicted a win for the opposition. Three monitoring organizations, including the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, cited irregularities such as vote buying, double voting, hate speech, and Russian disinformation.
“For now, Western governments are cautious in outright rejecting the election results, instead calling on Georgia's Central Election Commission to conduct investigations to reveal the violations,” says Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born analyst at Eurasia Group. But it is clear to everyone – including the Georgian Dream's leadership – that without significant manipulations and voter intimidation, the ruling party would have failed to secure a decisive win.”
The results bode poorly for Georgia’s accession to the EU: While Georgian Dream has promised a path to membership – something 80% of Georgians support – its rhetoric has grown increasingly authoritarian, anti-Western, and pro-Russia and China.
“The European Council has vowed to assess the latest developments and determine the EU's next steps in its relations with Georgia next month. We can expect the country's EU accession process to remain halted indefinitely, even if the ruling regime continues to insist that they are still moving toward eventual EU membership,” says Japaridze.
The party’s founder, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, who made his fortune in Russia in the 1990s, campaigned on keeping Georgia out of the war in Ukraine, and the party has proposed anti-LGBTQ+ laws mirroring those in Russia.
What’s next? Pro-western opposition leaders are planning protests and a Parliamentary boycott, similar to the five-month stalemate that followed Georgia’s 2020 election, which EU mediators eventually sorted out. But that’s not likely to happen in 2024: Georgian Dream has vowed to outlaw its opponents and pro-western groups.
“Despite pulling out all of the stops, the ruling party failed to garner enough votes to achieve a so-called constitutional majority in the parliament, which will make it very difficult for them to single-handedly amend the constitution, override presidential vetoes, and ban political opposition,” says Japaridze.
Meanwhile, Hungarian leader Viktor Orban announced a visit to Tbilisi on Monday – another sign that authoritarianism is gaining ground.
“President Zourabichvili has vowed to continue this battle, calling on those who believe Georgia's future is in Europe and not in Moscow's backyard to take to the streets starting tonight. Uncertainty about what happens next mixed with anger over a blatantly stolen election is a very potent motivator, especially for the youth.”
Viewpoint: Stakes couldn’t be higher ahead of Georgian election
The Eurasian country and former Soviet republic of Georgia – not the southern US state – is at risk of tilting back into Moscow’s sphere of influence. All eyes will be on the Oct. 26 election to see if the ruling Georgian Dream party – which has slowly shifted the country’s alignment away from Brussels and toward Moscow in recent years – retains control after these crucial parliamentary elections.
We spoke with Tinatin Japaridze, a Georgian-born regional analyst at Eurasia Group, about what’s at stake.
What is the pre-election atmosphere like in Tbilisi?
The atmosphere is simultaneously charged with anticipation and significant uncertainty about the election outcome. Political and social polarization has reached profound depths. The ruling Georgian Dream and the four main opposition coalitions appear disconnected from the majority of the public, who are increasingly feeling political fatigue toward the electoral process, even though many understand that the stakes are incredibly high.
What are the main issues for voters? Is Russia’s invasion of nearby Ukraine having an impact?
Since last spring, tens of thousands in Tbilisi have rallied in support of Georgia’s European future and against Russia’s ongoing aggression. Georgia, a former Soviet bloc country, is facing a critical choice – it can either move forward toward Europe or find itself reverting back toward Russia. It cannot pursue both paths at once. However, in rural areas, the decision is less clear-cut. While most recognize that the “European idea” is essential for Georgia’s growth and progress, this understanding often fails to address the immediate “bread and butter” needs of those living outside the few major cities.
The Georgian Dream, the ruling party, has been in power since 2012. Are they expected to win this election? What accounts for its enduring success?
A landslide win for the Georgian Dream is out of the question, and gaining a constitutional majority in the parliament seems very unlikely. That said, the ruling party is widely expected to garner more votes than any single political party – but probably not enough to avoid the need to form a coalition government with the opposition, which is a reality that neither side is prepared to accept. The “us vs. them” mentality will likely dominate amid deep-rooted interpersonal and intra-party tensions, significantly diminishing the prospects for collaboration between the two sides. Over the past year, as the ruling party started to gear up for what was clearly going to be the most competitive election it has faced since the Georgian Dream came to power in 2012, Russia has increased its support through official rhetoric and positive assessment of the ruling regime’s role in stabilizing relations with Moscow. There have also been thinly veiled, pro-Kremlin disinformation campaigns that have permeated the state-controlled media outlets.
Do you expect any unrest/violence around the election? A smooth government-formation process?
The days following the election will be pivotal in revealing the broader landscape, particularly because both sides will likely dispute unfavorable results. This is expected to lead to chaos, instability, and mass protests. Earlier this spring, up to 200,000 Georgians took to the streets in response to the Georgian Dream’s reintroduction of the controversial foreign agent law. If the election results, which may or may not become available on the night of Oct. 26, are unfavorable for the ruling party, the government and its security services are expected to attempt another violent crackdown. In the event of the Georgian Dream’s defeat by the opposition, a peaceful transfer of power is highly unlikely.
What will the election mean for the country’s relations with the West and with Russia?
The extent to which the West recognizes the election as free and fair will play a significant role here. If the international community rejects the results and the ruling party blatantly steals the vote, Tbilisi could experience increased isolation from the West. This would leave it more vulnerable to direct interference from Russia and increased involvement from China. By the same token, for the West, losing Georgia means losing its foothold in the South Caucasus, a situation neither the US nor Europe is prepared to accept. Western partners will use both incentives and deterrents to prevent Georgia from falling entirely under Kremlin influence.
Ukraine and the future of Europe
As Russia’s invasion rages on with no end in sight, Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Continued US support is far from guaranteed, and future policy toward Ukraine won't be clear until after the dust settles from the US election. Amid this uncertainty, the European Union has emerged as Ukraine’s strongest ally. The war is being fought only miles from EU borders and European leaders are working overtime to make sure the bloc is able to stand on its own, militarily and economically.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders, to ask about its path to EU membership and the future of Europe’s strategic autonomy. Despite Ukraine’s financial challenges, Metsola unequivocally believes European enlargement is a “win-win,” pointing to Poland’s successful trajectory after it joined the EU in 2004. There is still a lot of work to do to strengthen Europe’s voice on the global stage, Metsola admits, and the EU has a responsibility to show the world it can lead by example.
“We make it so difficult for countries to join the European Union, but then let the countries that are inside of Europe do whatever they like,” Metsola says, “We don't have rules to make sure that our basic tenets, fundamentals of democracy work.”
Watch the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Can Europe become a global superpower?
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Moldova votes amid allegations of Russian meddling
Moldovans voted in a presidential election and a referendum on European integration on Sunday. President Maia Sandu cruised into the second round runoff with 42% of the vote as she seeks reelection with a pro-EU platform against 10 rivals, many of whom favor closer ties to Russia. The referendum, which would enshrine Moldova’s EU ambitions into its constitution, looks like it will pass with the slimmest of margins: a 50.17% majority.
A former Soviet state of roughly 3 million people that gained independence in 1991, Moldova sits landlocked between Ukraine and Romania and has been tugged between Eastern and Western influences ever since. One of Europe’s poorest nations, it is also bordered by Transnistria, a breakaway region along the Dnister River that declared independence in 1990, fearing Moldova’s potential reunification with Romania. Moscow maintains troops there, making the threat of Russian military action a constant concern.
Most recently, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Moldova to announce a $2 billion economic support package from the EU and Washington. At the same time, fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor, now living in Russia, is accused of undermining Sandu’s EU ambitions by funneling millions in cash to her opponents, much of which has been seized by authorities. Sandu said there was “clear evidence” of “fraud on an unprecedented scale.”
Sandu now faces a run-off against pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo on Nov. 3. As for the referendum, it will pass if its tight margin holds, but it is far from the resounding endorsement of EU admission that Sandu would prefer going into the runoff.
Is an EU-China trade war brewing?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Vienna, Austria
Is there a risk of a full-scale trade war between the European Union and China?
Hopefully not. But it was a decision, somewhat controversial, the other day by the EU to impose tariffs, not too high but still substantial, on electric vehicles coming from China. The US, of course, has done something similar but much higher tariffs and without much of a theoretical justification. I mean, the EU tried to ground its different decisions in analysis of the subsidies generated or given to the different Chinese car manufacturers. China will retaliate in one way or the other. But talks are going on and there's no interest in a trade war either from the EU side or from the Chinese side. And we should not forget, by the way, that for the moment, there are 100 times more cars sold by European companies in China than Chinese vehicles or cars exported to Europe.
Why is the deal between Italy and Albania on refugee centers so controversial?
Well it's been criticized by human rights groups, whether that is justified or not, it's difficult for me to judge. But the idea is for roughly 3,000 asylum seekers to Italy to be roughly 3,000 of them every month to be processed in two centers in Italy that are going to be run by and financed by Italy. We'll see how this would work out. They would be coming from primarily what they call "safe countries," and that means that the expectation is, of course, that the majority of them, or the vast majority of them, will have to be repatriated to their respective countries. It's part of the effort by X numbers of European governments to deal with the migration issue that is in very many of the countries the number one domestic policy concern at the moment.
Europe's biggest concerns about Middle East, one year after Oct. 7
What's the situation of Europe one year after the October 7th attack against Israel? What's the main takeaway from the visit of the new NATO Secretary General to Kyiv? Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Lisbon, Portugal.
What's the situation of Europe one year after the October 7th attack against Israel?
Well, I think deep apprehension is the best way of summing it up. Fears that we will see a further escalation of the conflict. Could be further problems in Gaza, could be further problems in West Bank. But perhaps particular now the situation of Lebanon, where there's the risk that we will see a further meltdown by the way of Lebanon. And we already have a million people on the move inside Lebanon. We have perhaps 100,000 people who are trying to flee from Lebanon into Syria. Mind you, there was a million and a half fleeing from Syria into Lebanon a couple of years ago. And the fear that we will see any refugee flow coming out of that area into Europe with all of the problems that would entail. So, deep apprehension on that situation.
What's the main takeaway from the visit of the new NATO Secretary General to Kyiv?
I think it was important for Mark Rutte to go to Kiev as the first thing he did really as the new Secretary General of NATO in order to make very clear his personal commitment to Ukraine, and the fact that he would put that at the top of his list of priorities, much in the same way as outgoing Secretary Jens Stoltenberg has done during the last few years. So, that was an important signal in itself.
Can Zelensky's 'victory plan' bring peace to Ukraine?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
First question, is Zelensky's finalized 'victory plan' realistic to bring peace to Ukraine?
Well, the peace plan that he's talking about is a proposal that he's going to present to President Biden at the meeting in UN in the next few days. They are there for the UN General Assembly, and it consists essentially of beefing up Ukraine's military capabilities with the possibility to use more long-range weapons and other things in order to substantially increase the military difficulties that Russia already having. Thus, possibly, hopefully, making it certain, making it clear to the Kremlin that there's no way to victory and that they have to sit down and agree to something that is acceptable and that can be called peace of some sort. Will this work? Remains to be seen, to put it in the mildest possible way.
Second question, why is there backlash against EU's anti-deforestation law?
Well, it's not unique for that particular one. I mean, all of the legislation for the so-called Green Deal that was decided due to the last five years, a lot of it is fairly complicated and has significant burdens on industry in order to reporting requirements and all of those. That includes the deforestation law. So there is a push to say, "Well, well it's all good. But let's delay it somewhat so that business has the possibility of catching up with all of the requirements." You will see that debate about several aspects of the Green Deal. It doesn't endanger the deal itself, but it perhaps streamlines and perhaps delays it somewhat.
Europe’s Commish chooses her team
European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen on Tuesday named the team that will work with her as she heads into her second term as the EU’s most powerful official.
What’s the Commission? It’s 27 officials, one from each member state, who propose and oversee EU laws. Think immigration, antitrust, trade, and tech regulation. A key responsibility is drafting the EU budget.
Foreign and defense portfolios went to arch-Russia hawks from the Baltics, while Spain, Italy, and France – which generally favor more state economic intervention – got industrial policy and competition-related files. The choice of a hard-right politician from Italy raised hackles on the left, but it’s part of Von der Leyen’s strategy of engaging the right, in particular Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, to head off a wider populist backlash.
She also nearly reached her goal of gender parity, noting that some member states failed to follow the protocol of nominating one female and one male candidate for each post.
“She’s lining up all her ducks,” says Eurasia Group expert Emre Peker. The big task? Implementing the new $800 billion annual do-or-die economic reform proposals of former ECB president Mario Draghi. “That money isn’t going to materialize out of thin air,” says Peker. It will have to come either from debt issuance, unpopular with the union’s fiscal hawks, or by taking money from popular economic support programs. Either option will be a bruising political fight.