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France's snap election: Understanding why Macron took the risk
With Emmanuel Macron’s approval ratings at a historic low, and far-right parties gaining popularity, could France’s upcoming election be its own “Brexit” moment? Mark Carney, former governor of the Banks of England and Canada and current UN Special Envoy on Climate Action & Finance, joins Ian Bremmer on GZERO World to discuss snap elections in the UK and France, the complexities of Brexit, and its ongoing impact on domestic politics in Europe.
“There are a wide range of aspects of the UK-European relationship which don't work,” Carney says, “There's massive red tape, for example, in agricultural products, massive red tape and delays at the border, the inner workings of a very interconnected financial system.”
Calling a snap election in France is a big risk, Carney explains, but after his party underperformed in the EU parliamentary elections, Macron wants a referendum from the French people. He’s betting that voters used the EU election to send a message but will vote more moderately in national elections closer to home. Meanwhile, Labour is expected to win big in the UK elections, but the aftermath of Brexit still looms large. But the geopolitics of 2024 are very different than in 2016 during the Brexit referendum.
“There's a range of things that could be made better if the UK government and the European government wanted to work together,” Carney stresses, “And it's all operating in a GZERO World.”
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week on US public television (check local listings) and online.
How political unrest across the West will impact the world: A conversation with UN's Mark Carney
Listen: On this episode of the GZERO World Podcast, major Western democracies like France, the UK, Canada, and the US are on the verge of sweeping political change, but how will upcoming elections impact our collective ability to deal with the world’s biggest challenges like climate, AI, and cyber defense? Mark Carney, former Governor of the Banks of England and Canada and current UN Special Envoy on Climate Action & Finance, joins Ian Bremmer to take a hard look at three of America’s closest allies: France, Britain, and Canada.
Upcoming elections in France and the UK could mean big changes for the West, similar to the aftermath of Brexit. Carney says there are still many aspects of the UK-EU relationship that need to be recalibrated. He also stresses the strategic importance of the US-Canada relationship and Canada’s role as a reliable partner in everything from national security to critical minerals to fighting climate change.
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Hunter Biden's convictions won't derail his father's re-election bid
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60, live from the Toronto US-Canada Summit.
What are the implications of Hunter Biden's convictions for his father's presidential campaign?
You know, it's a little bit of tit for tat. You're going to see a lot of Republicans saying, “See the Biden crime family! Look at this guy. I mean, he's a convict.” It's ugly. It's embarrassing for the Biden family, of course. But at the same time, it's not very significant charges and it certainly doesn't link directly to President Biden. Five months away, are people going to be talking about this or Trump's 34 convictions, the weakest of the cases that he's actually facing? I suspect neither of them are going to matter very much, even though, on balance, Trump's is the one that should matter more.
Will recent EU elections bring a dramatic shift to Europe or more of the same?
Well, overall, the European Parliament looks a lot like the old European Parliament. A few more seats for the right wing, but the far-right is not very aligned, doesn't work cohesively. I still think Ursula von der Leyen is going to be, yet again, European Commission president. And in many countries the populist, the anti-establishment did a lot worse. In Sweden, for example, in Portugal and others. On balance, there's not much change here. Two things that matter one a little bit is that Schulz and his Social Democrats really underperformed. The German economy not doing well, he's not seen as much of a leader. A three-party coalition, Germany, largely centrist and pretty stable no matter what. Much bigger: France. Macron's party, historically, got pasted. That's why he's called for parliamentary elections in just a few weeks. And when they happen, if Le Pen's party, the National Rally, wins and they're able to put forward a prime minister, there's is a major, major problem for governance in France and for the need of anything that the EU has to have parliamentary approval in France to get done, and that includes the Ukraine problem going forward.
How Canadians viewing the impending Biden Trump rematch?
You know, in some ways a little more comfortably than they did the last time around because the US-Mexico-Canada agreement's already in place and Trump got it done with this Canadian government. So, I think that they feel a little like, “Hey, we dealt with them once, we can deal with them again.” There's much more strategy and strategic alignment in the importance of the US-Canada relationship today than there was five, 10 years ago, in part because on China they're much more aligned, on things like, major wars outside of this part of the world, they're much more aligned, on Haiti, they're much more aligned. But also keep in mind that Canada's also facing an election in a year. And right now, it looks like the Tories, the conservatives in Canada, would win big, ahead by over 20 points. In which case you'd have a Canadian government and a US government, if Trump were to win, that would be very aligned. Just on a very different part of the political spectrum. Either way, very friendly and very stable relationship, which is more than we can say for most of them around the world.
Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen gives her Constitution Day in Copenhagen, Denmark, on June 5, 2024.
Danish PM attacked in the street
Political violence is surging – even where you’d least expect it.
Danish PM Mette Frederiksen was attacked on a Copenhagen street on Friday, just two days before her country votes in EU Parliament elections. Her Social Democrats are the largest party in Denmark’s government, but they’ve been losing support in recent months.
Following a campaign event, a man reportedly walked up to Frederiksen and hit her in the city center late Friday. She was left in shock, and the assailant was arrested.
Fellow European politicians are taking to social media to offer support and condemn the attack, which comes just weeks after Slovakian PM Robert Fico survived a May 15 assassination attempt.
As we wrote earlier this week, scholars and police have been growing increasingly worried about the risk of political violence in both the US and Canada as both countries head into election cycles this year and next. But Europe is already in the throes of a tumultuous European election in which – amid sharp debates about immigration – the far right is expected to gain seats.
Stay tuned: We’ll be watching to see how Frederiksen bounces back from the attack, and how Danes and Europeans more broadly vote in the days ahead.