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Starmer pursues EU alliances to soften Brexit blow
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Tabiano Castello in Italy.
What is motivating the Starmer UK government from seeking new security treaties with Germany and with Paris?
Well, it has to do essentially with Brexit, trying to mitigate the consequences of that and reengaging with European countries. That has tended to focus more on security issues. We'll see what's going to be the content of it. But in economic terms, as long as one excludes what the UK government does, going back into the single market and going back into Customs Union, to mitigate the economic consequences, a damaging one of Brexit, has got to be very difficult. It's a small step, but a good one.
What is the effect of Italy's very restrictive policies on migration and what's happening in the Mediterranean on the migration flows across the Mediterranean?
Yep, it's true. The Meloni government is taking a very restrictive approach, confiscating or impounding humanitarian relief boats, which is very controversial and heavily criticized. But the effect has, of course, been a significant drop in the number of people arriving. While last year, at this particular time, up until this time, it was 112,000 people arrived on the shores of Italy. Now that figure is down to 40,000. But several thousands have disappeared into the Mediterranean.
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Ylva Johansson, European Commissioner in charge of Home Affairs, accompanied by Giorgia Meloni, Italian Prime Minister, visited the Lampedusa migrant hotspot to discuss the ongoing migration crisis.
Hard Numbers: EU migration deal, WTO forecast downgrade, Brazilian doctors shot, the Pope's climate message, Fat Bear Week
250,000: EU migration ministers have reached a historic preliminary deal that would see frontline states move migrants – specifically those arriving in large numbers due to acute crises like war or climate disaster – to other EU states for processing. This comes after EU officials said that 250,000 people had entered the bloc so far this year through illegal migration routes. The agreement still needs to be passed by the EU Parliament.
0.8: The World Trade Organization has downgraded its export growth target for the year to 0.8%, down from a 1.7% forecast in the spring. Stubborn inflation, China’s economic woes, and supply chain kinks exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine are pummeling manufacturing industries. How do we make sure that global trade is fair, particularly for debt-burdened states in the Global South? Ian Bremmer discussed this with WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on the latest episode of GZERO World. Watch here.
4: On Thursday, four Brazilian doctors were shot – three fatally – on a Rio de Janeiro beach while visiting the city for an orthopedic conference. There’s speculation that the attack was politically motivated because one victim was the brother of a federal lawmaker who is also married to another lawmaker. Both belong to the same leftist party as former Rio city councilor Marielle Franco, who was gunned down in a still-unresolved crime in 2018.
20.92: The earth's average ocean temperature reached 20.92 degrees Celcius (69.66 Fahrenheit) in September, the second-highest figure ever recorded... after this August. It's the fourth month in a row of record-breaking global temperatures, and the unignorable deterioration of climactic conditions prompted Pope Francis to directly name and shame the United States and major fossil fuel producers for exacerbating the crisis and call out the hypocrisy of hosting the UN's marquee climate conference in the United Arab Emirates in an update missive on the environment.
10 million: There are just a few more days to cast your vote for the Fat Bear Week competition, where betting and mammal enthusiasts alike tune in to watch brown bears of Alaska's Katmai National Park gather along the Brooks River to catch salmon swimming and stock up for the winter. In 2022, more than 10 million people tuned in to the livestream. So who is the favorite? A 70lb (31kg) one-year-old cub known as 806 Jr.
Migrants on board a ship which disembarked in Salerno, Italy.
Olaf Scholz gets tough on asylum-seekers
The German government on Wednesday announced that authorities will start conducting “flexible spot checks” on border crossings from Poland and the Czech Republic to address an influx of asylum-seekers who have sought to enter the country in recent months.
This comes after Berlin recently joined Italy’s right-wing government in declaring that both countries had reached the “limits of [their] capacity” to take in migrants.
For context, around 204,00 migrants – mostly from Syria, Afghanistan, Turkey, and across Africa – requested asylum in Germany within the first eight months of this year, a 77% jump from the same period in 2022.
But why is the center-left government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz toughening its stance?
This comes just weeks before Germans in Bavaria and Hesse head to the polls in regional elections, and polls show that tough-on-migrant messages are resonating with voters.
In Bavaria, for instance, Germany’s second most populous state, Scholz’s Social Democratic Party is polling at just 9%. Meanwhile, nationally, messaging about border safeguarding has been a boon for the far-right Alternative for Germany Party, now second in an average of national polls.
Facing growing pressure to crack down on asylum-seekers has also brought Berlin head-to-head with Warsaw: At a rally in Bavaria over the weekend, Scholz took aim at Polish officials who had allegedly issued EU visas to Asian and African nationals in exchange for bribes.
Line Graphs of the number of migrants accepted into various EU countries
The Graphic Truth: Where are Migrants Going in the EU?
Migration to Europe has been climbing over the last two decades, with migrants largely coming from the Middle East, North Africa, and – since 2022 – Ukraine. While some EU countries have opened their arms to migrants, others have erected fences and closed borders. We take a look at how the number of migrants EU countries have accepted in recent years.
Lithuanian army soldiers install razor wire on the border with Belarus in Druskininkai.
What We’re Watching: EU vs Belarus, US booster shots for all, Afghan lessons for Taiwan
Booster shots for Americans: After initially authorizing COVID vaccine booster shots for immunocompromised Americans, the Biden administration now says that most eligible people should get a booster beginning next month. It's quite an about-face for US health authorities, who just weeks ago insisted a top up was not necessary despite the spread of the more contagious delta variant, responsible for new COVID flare-ups in many parts of the country. Still, the US will likely face backlash from the World Health Organization, which has repeatedly asked nations with broad access to vaccines to hold off on booster shots until all countries inoculate at least 10 percent of their populations. The WHO's argument: if rich nations play me-first vaccine politics by doling out third doses instead of sending them to countries where most people haven't even had one dose, the virus will continue to mutate into new and potentially more lethal variants, making the pandemic harder to contain. But the US isn't the only country to go down the booster track: Israel has already distributed over 1 million, while Germany, France and the UK will begin in September.
EU-Belarus migrant row intensifies: One week after Lithuania's parliament voted to build a border fence with Belarus to stop non-EU migrants from entering the country, the plot thickens. Lithuania says it has caught Belarusian security agents red-handed, pushing migrants across the border. The Lithuanians say strongman Alexander Lukashenko has encouraged more than 4,000 migrants to cross so far this year as a reprisal for EU sanctions against Belarus, which the Belarusians deny. Meanwhile, Poland has sent almost 900 troops to the Belarusian border, which is being reinforced with barbed wire to keep migrants out. EU ministers are meeting Wednesday to decide what to do about Belarus weaponizing migration to punish the bloc for pushing back against Belarusian human rights abuses. But Brussels has little leverage with Lukashenko, who knows EU countries can't push him too hard because many need the Russian natural gas that transits through Belarusian territory on its way to Europe.
China taunts Taiwan with… Afghanistan: One country focused on the US' calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan is China, which has skin in the game. Just hours after the Taliban swept back to power, the editor-in-chief of a hawkish Chinese state media outlet tweeted that Taiwan "must be trembling" and fearing that America may not defend Taipei from an eventual Chinese invasion. The next day, China's military deployed fighter jets, anti-submarine aircraft and combat ships to conduct drills near the self-governing island — which mainland China has long claimed as part of its territory — in response to unspecified "provocations" from Washington and Taipei, perhaps related to the Biden administration's recent approval to sell Taiwan $750 million worth of weapons. The Taiwanese, for their part, brushed off the Afghan analogy, arguing that America will have their back as long as they avoid the domestic turmoil that preceded the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Either way, with a lot on his plate, it's unlikely that Xi Jinping will actually seek to reunify the island with the mainland by force anytime soon. But flexing China's military muscle across the Taiwan Strait is always a winner with Chinese nationalists, who welcome Xi's aggressive posturing on Taiwan.