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Viktor Orbán watching his party leave him behind.
Viktor Orbán is in trouble. Europe’s populist right isn’t.
For the past fifteen years, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has coasted from one election victory to another. Since returning to power in 2010, the self-proclaimed defender of “illiberal democracy” has transformed his country into an “electoral autocracy” – reshaping institutions, rewriting election laws, muzzling independent media, and stacking the courts – where elections are technically free but heavily tilted in his favor, the media landscape is dominated by government allies, and the ruling party – Fidesz – uses the machinery of the state to reward supporters and punish dissent.
All the while, Orbán has proudly cast himself as Europe’s chief populist troublemaker – a pro-Russian crusader against liberalism, immigration, and Brussels bureaucrats, Donald Trump’s man across the Atlantic, and a guy who relishes nothing more than jamming up the European Union’s gears.
His nationalist-populist model inspired imitators and admirers across the West. Where many right-wing populists have flamed out, Orbán has endured, winning elections (four in a row, to be precise) and accumulating more power along the way.
But now, Orbán’s veneer of invincibility is cracking. Suddenly, the world’s most durable populist and Trump’s best friend in Europe looks more vulnerable than ever.
Cracks in the crown
At home, the Hungarian prime minister is facing a newly energized political opposition led by a former protégé-turned-rival named Peter Magyar, who’s managed to do what no other challenger has: unite Hungary’s fragmented anti-Orbán forces. Recent polls show Magyar's center-right Tisza Party holding a commanding double-digit lead over Orbán’s Fidesz among committed voters. Whether or not it’ll hold until the elections in early 2026, that’s no small advantage in a country where the ruling party has rewritten the electoral rules in its favor.
Magyar’s appeal lies in his hybrid message: anti-corruption and pro-transparency, but also nationalist and socially conservative enough to peel away disillusioned Fidesz voters. His rise has upended Orbán’s usual playbook, which relied on a splintered opposition and a monopoly on patriotic rhetoric.
Now, for the first time in years, Orbán is worried, and he’s throwing every goodie he can think of at voters – tax breaks for mothers, higher allowances for families, VAT refunds for retirees, price caps on groceries – in a bid to shore up support and stem Magyar’s rise.
But while these giveaways may buy him some political breathing room, they are also blowing a hole in Hungary’s budget just as the economy is faltering. Growth has been stalled since the end of 2022, the budget deficit is ballooning at 4.9% of GDP, and Orbán’s long-running feud with Brussels means billions in EU recovery funds are likely to remain frozen this year.
Then there’s the Trump factor. Orbán likes to boast about his closeness with the US president. He was the first European leader to endorse Trump in 2016 and again in 2024. But that friendship is becoming less useful.
Unless the EU manages to negotiate a trade deal with Washington, Trump’s punitive new tariffs would hit Hungary’s growth engine especially hard, affecting demand from Europe (particularly Germany) and products ranging from lithium-ion batteries (which make up almost 20% of the country's US exports) to electronic, manufactured goods, and even high-quality wines. Orbán has downplayed the damage, insisting Trump’s tariffs are no big deal – and even floating the fantasy that he could leverage his closeness with Trump to strike his own bilateral deal … despite the tiny issue that EU countries have no capacity to bypass the bloc’s common trade policy.
The White House has also made it clear it’s not inclined to give its pal a pass, especially given the growing suspicion with which defense and trade hawks within the administration view Orbán’s pro-China orientation. In fact, Washington is pushing Budapest to ramp up defense spending to 5% of GDP, buy more weapons and LNG from the US, and distance itself from Beijing at a time when economic conditions are making Hungary more financially dependent on China.
And so, Viktor Orbán is boxed in: squeezed by a surging domestic challenger, trapped by an overextended fiscal policy, cut off from EU funds, and now caught in the undertow of his ally’s protectionist turn in Washington.
Don’t call it a comeback
You might think this spells good news for Europe. Facing his most difficult year since first coming to power, the bloc’s preeminent internal antagonist will have a more limited ability to hijack the EU agenda or undermine European unity on Russia sanctions and Ukraine support in concert with Trump. Sure, if you’re laying odds, it’s still Orbán’s election to lose … but Hungary’s at least in play now. It’s welcome news for Brussels.
Some have gone further, though, pointing to recent centrist electoral wins against right-wing populists with explicitly Trumpian politics in Canada and Australia as evidence of a broader anti-Trump effect being in full swing. If Trump’s disruptive return to the spotlight is causing voters to “rally around the flag” of stability, then perhaps Orbán’s troubles are a sign that Europe is finally sobering up from its populist binge – that the chaos and corruption of his and Trump’s style has worn thin, and European voters are turning back toward sanity and moderation.
But that reading overlooks the fact that the anti-Trump bump isn't holding in Europe. If anything, the tide of right-wing populism on the continent is accelerating.
Take Romania. George Simion, an ultranationalist firebrand with a MAGA streak, is now the favorite to beat Bucharest’s pro-Western centrist mayor, Nicușor Dan, in the May 18 presidential runoff election following the collapse of the country’s pro-EU governing coalition yesterday. Simion outperformed expectations in the first-round vote last Sunday after openly embracing Trump-style politics, railing against the EU, and even welcoming American CPAC chair Matt Schlapp to the campaign trail. He is campaigning alongside Calin Georgescu, another far-right candidate whose first-round presidential election win last November was annulled by Romania’s top court due to likely Russian interference. (A massive online influence campaign tied to the Kremlin seems to have helped Simion, too.)
Across the English Channel, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party delivered a political gut-punch to the mainstream last Friday, flipping a historically safe Labor parliamentary seat in a by-election and racking up wins in local council elections. The Labor-Tory duopoly that’s dominated British politics for over a century suddenly looks wobbly – and Farage, a leading Brexit advocate and perennial Trump ally, is at the center of the storm.
Even in places where centrists are supposed to be on solid ground, the far right is gaining. In Poland, the ruling Law and Justice party is leaning into its Trump ties to boost its presidential hopeful, Karol Nawrocki. Recent polling shows Nawrocki closing in on centrist opponent Rafał Trzaskowski ahead of elections on May 18. He flew to Washington last week to meet with Trump-affiliated figures, hoping to ride the same anti-establishment wave to victory.
Meanwhile, in Germany, center-right leader Friedrich Merz squeaked into the chancellorship on a second vote after an embarrassing initial flop yesterday. With the hard-right, MAGA-endorsed Alternative für Deutschland continuing to rise, the conservative chancellor once viewed as the establishment’s answer to the populist surge now leads a wounded and weakened “grand coalition” that feels anything but grand.
All of which is to say: Orbán may be stumbling, but his current woes are less a sign of waning populism or an anti-Trump backlash across Europe than a story of one populist’s bad bets coming due. We could be entering a world where Budapest becomes less of a thorn in Brussels’ side than before. But if European centrists think that’ll be the end of their troubles, they’re in for a rude awakening. Far-right European populism is not going anywhere.
How will the Trump presidency influence elections in Europe?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
How do you believe that the Trump presidency will influence elections in Europe?
Well, of course we don't know. But what we've seen during the last week with important elections in Canada and Australia, not Europe, but fairly similar in other ways, is that the Trump factor has been very important. It has boosted the incumbent governments. It has boosted the center-left. It has boosted those who are seen as standing up to American pressure, and thus produced results both in Canada, primarily in Canada, but also in Australia. Very different from what practically everyone expected a couple of months ago.
Europe, different place. But still we have two important elections coming up, within slightly more than 10 days. We have the first round of the presidential election in Poland. That's very important for the future possibilities of the Tusk government to continue reforming that particular country. And we have the second round of the presidential election in Romania. An important country often forgotten. But there of course, we had gross interference from Russia and TikTok, and a candidate was banned. In both of these cases, we see the Trump presidency acting. They received, in the White House the other day, the opposition candidate. The extreme right nationalist opposition candidate the other day. And they've been making distinct noises in favor of the same political alternative in Romania. Will this backfire in the way it did in Canada, Australia? Remains to be seen. Very important elections both of them. Watch this space.
Why the US-Ukraine minerals deal is a win-win
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What is the importance of the so-called minerals deals, which have now been concluded between Ukraine and the United States?
Well, I think it's primarily of political significance, and I think the Kyiv team has done good work and so has the US team in getting a somewhat more realistic agreement. It sets up a reconstruction fund, joint efforts to finance different reconstruction things, so I don't think it's going to have any immediate substantial impact in material terms. But I do think that it takes away an irritant in the Trump-Ukraine relationship, and that is important itself. It might make it somewhat more difficult for the Trump team to just dump Ukraine in the way that some of them might have been inclined to do.
What is the importance of the visit by the Danish King Frederik to Greenland?
Well, I don't think it should be seen primarily in the context of the relationship with Trump and his bizarre ambitions to take over Greenland. It's a new king in Denmark. He's the sovereign. He has a very strong personal relationship with Greenland. It is a new government, a new parliament in Greenland after the elections there in March. And it is to some extent, of course, a new geopolitical situation. So I think it was very natural for the sovereign, the King, to come and spend some days together with the new leadership in Greenland and pave the way also for the new discussions on defense relationships and the overall relationships that are going to come now between the Copenhagen and the Nuuk authorities. But certainly, it sends some sort of signal to Washington as well.
A search and rescue operation is underway in the Sviatoshynskyi district after a massive overnight missile and drone attack by Russian troops, Kyiv, Ukraine, on April 24, 2025. At least eight people were killed in the strike, and 77 people sustained injuries.
Another setback for Russia-Ukraine peace talks
It’s all Big Smoke and no fire in London, as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pulled out of Russia-Ukraine peace talks with a coalition of European leaders that were scheduled to take place in the British capital on Wednesday. The decision came right as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rebuffed the Americans’ peace plan that involved formally recognizing Crimea as Russian territory. US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who also canceled plans to be in London, is instead headed to Moscow for his fourth round of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Breaking overnight. Russia pounded Kyiv overnight with missiles and drone strikes, killing at least eight people and injuring dozens more. It was the heaviest attack on the Ukrainian capital since July. Zelensky was in South Africa when the bombs hit, but he will cut short the trip and return home early.
The Americans pile on the pressure. Rubio warned last week that the US will “move on” from peace talks if a deal wasn’t eminently “doable.” Vice President JD Vance echoed this sentiment on Wednesday. President Donald Trump pushed the Ukrainians to accept the peace deal on Wednesday, while claiming that Russia was on the verge of accepting it.
Would the terms be enough for Russia? It’s unclear, but Putin reportedly offered to pause fighting on Tuesday in an apparent effort to reach a peace deal. On the other hand, the Russian leader’s past comments suggest he wants more.
“Putin last year said he also expects Ukraine to give up control over the parts of the claimed regions that Russia does not yet control,” said Alex Brideau, Russia director at Eurasia Group. “It may also demand new elections, on the assumption that it would lead a government that is friendlier to Russia.”
“Whether that’s realistic,” Brideau added, “Putin appears unwilling to deviate much from these demands.”
An employee checks filled capsules inside a Cadila Pharmaceutical company manufacturing unit at Dholka town on the outskirts of Ahmedabad, India, April 12, 2025.
Pharma manufacturers face tariff uncertainty
Donald Trump’s administration announced that it is opening investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor supply chains, which will likely result in tariffs that will hurt suppliers in Europe, India, and Canada.
The move shows that, despite stiff political and market resistance, Trump still believes tariffs will benefit his country in the long term by rebalancing trade and boosting manufacturing jobs.
The pharma announcement caused headaches for Canadian producers of generic drugs and pharma ingredients, who are warning of dangerous disruptions to supply chains if the US administration acts erratically.
Trump said last week that pharma tariffs would bring a manufacturing boom to the United States: “They will leave other places because they have to sell — most of their product is sold here, and they’re going to be opening up their plants all over the place.”
But, as with other of Trump’s tariffs, the move could boost prices for consumers while offering uncertain benefits for US industry. Trump’s unpredictability itself is a major liability. Because of strict permitting controls, pharma facilities take years to build, and Trump’s frequent reversals may convince companies it’s unwise to make long-term investments.
EU and Chinese flags in an illustration.
The EU extends a hand toward China
European leaders have much to worry about when it comes to trade and economic growth. In March, Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and cars coming from Europe. Last week, he added a 20% tariff on virtually everything else that Europe exports to the US. On Wednesday, the EU responded by announcing tariffs on a broad range of US-exported products that could affect about $23 billion worth of goods. Then, later on Wednesday, Trump suddenly included the EU among those who would see tariff rates fall back to 10%. The whiplash from Washington continues.
But European leaders are also concerned about China, which continues to flood the EU with goods, particularly electric vehicles, that undercut European manufacturers on price. That’s a problem that could get worse quickly if Chinese goods normally destined for the US are diverted by Trump tariffs toward Europe – a problem that looked even more serious after Trump’s Wednesday announcement that he would raise the “tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately.”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen held a call with Premier Li Qiang earlier this weekand said afterward that EU and Chinese leaders should work together toward a “negotiated resolution” to any trade conflicts between them and provide “stability and predictability” for the global economy.
There is also an opportunity here for President Xi Jinping. China has a strategic interest in helping to divide the US from Europe. Demonstrating to European leaders that China can become a force for economic stability at a time when Trump is waging a trade war on allies and rivals alike would further that goal.Demonstrators rally against President Donald Trump and his adviser Elon Musk during a Hands Off! protest on the Washington Monument grounds in Washington, DC, on April 5, 2025.
Trump’s tariffs trigger aftershocks at home and abroad
US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have been met with anger, outrage, and disbelief in every corner of the world – including islands inhabited solely by penguins. At last count, at least 50 countries want to talk trade with Washington, while in the US, opposition to Trump’s presidency is getting organized. Here’s a look at this weekend’s reactions.
In America: Protests, pleas, and pride
From San Francisco to Tulsa to DC, protesters took to the streets on Saturday in over 1,400 demonstrations across all 50 states, demanding that Trump and his “billionaire friends” take their “Hands Off” programs like Medicare and Social Security. While the protests were not specifically aimed at the tariffs, many demonstrators denounced their impact on consumers and retirees, who feared for the future of their investments in the wake of tariff-induced market turmoil.
Meanwhile, top tech and finance leaders — including reps from Apple, Goldman Sachs, and Meta — reportedly plan to fly to Mar-a-Lago to urge Trump to reconsider his tariff plans. Their message: Tariffs are tanking investor confidence and threatening America’s innovation edge.
In the Midwest, it’s a different story. In Iowa, Ohio, and the Dakotas, many in Trump’s base are cheering. Farmers, small manufacturers, and assembly line workers, angry at the impact of offshoring, say the tariffs finally put America first. As a candy store manager in small-town Ohio told the BBC, “If tariffs bring companies and business back to hardworking American people like the ones who live here, then it’s worth it.”
Overseas: Calls for unity, calculated countermeasures
Abroad, in the words of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the consensus is that “the world as we knew it has gone.” The EU is promising a coordinated response in the coming days with retaliatory tariffs on a host of American goods, including diamonds, meat, cereals, wine, wood, clothing, chewing gum, dental floss, vacuum cleaners, and toilet paper. (In a curious twist, Trump adviser Elon Musk suggested on Saturday to a far-right Italian party that the US and Europe form a zero-tariff free trade zone, saying that this “has certainly been my advice to the president.” We’ll see whether Trump takes it.)
In Asia, responses have been mixed. Indonesia and Taiwan’s governments have opted not to retaliate, while Vietnam’s President To Lam has already been on the phone with Trump, proposing a deal to eliminate tariffs entirely between the two nations. In contrast, China is digging in its heels, placing export restrictions on rare earths in addition to reciprocal tariffs of 34% on US goods. Both measures were announced on Friday after two days of stock market meltdowns, which continued into Monday, as the Nikkei plunged 7.8%, while two other Asian indexes had record losses for a single day. Wall Street is also set for another week of turmoil after Dow Jones futures fell 1,500 points (over 3.5%) late Sunday.
Responding to the continued market downturn, Trump said Sunday night that “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”
How Europe might respond to Trump's tariffs
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
What's going to be the reaction to the Trump trade war against Europe but also against the rest of the world?
Well, it was worse than expected. What you will hear coming out of Brussels is strong words, but also saying, "Well, let's try and see if we can mitigate, if we can negotiate, if we can have some changes in this." That's going to take some time. Not much hope that that will produce anything. But anyhow, the attempt will be made. And then I would expect fairly strong European countermeasures.
But then, I think the global impact of it is really astonishing. Key US allies and partners in Asia have been hit much harder, even harder than Europe. So, we see the US in terms of economy retreating from the world, and trying to build its own small fortress there behind its oceans. For us, Europeans, the conclusion must be to do the opposite, to reach out to the world. 87% of global imports are not in the US. Two thirds of the growth of the global economy is going to be in Asia-Pacific in the years to come. So, Europe, well, US is doing its own thing, can't do very much about that. But we must be even more strategic, offensive, forward-looking in reaching out to the rest of the world. Develop and preserve as much as we can of an open global trading system. That is the way to prosperity in the future.