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Alice Weidel, AfD national chairman, waits on the sidelines of her party's national convention for a TV interview to begin. The AfD wants to adopt its election program in Riesa.
What is “remigration” and why is the German far right calling for it?
European media is abuzz with a new term embraced by Alternative for Germany, or AfD, party chair Alice Weidel during her disturbing speech at the far-right party’s leadership conference on Saturday: “remigration.” AfD has surged to second place in national polls ahead of Germany’s Feb. 23 election – following four years of anemic growth and ineffective government. The party has also enjoyed support from American right-wingers like Elon Musk, who streamed Weidel’s speech on his social media.
What is “remigration”? A term popularized in the German-speaking world by Austrian neo-Nazi Martin Sellner, it refers to forcibly removing immigrants who refuse to integrate with German culture, regardless of their citizenship status. In other words, a German of Turkish or Syrian descent, born and raised in the country, could be expelled, though just how the scheme would work is not clear.
Eagle-eyed readers will recognize this as ethnic cleansing in a fancy dress, and given Weidel’s attempts to portray herself as electable, her embrace of the term is striking. She may have felt emboldened by the AfD’s state-level victories in September in Thuringia, where reactionary Björn Höcke ran the show. Notably, Weidel’s crowds have taken to chanting “Alice für Deutschland!” — a deliberate homophone of the banned Nazi slogan “Alles für Deutschland!”
Will AfD take power? Probably not — they’re 10 percentage points behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union, and they are reviled by all other parties. But given how strongly the far right is performing in Europe, the party’s agenda can push political discourse further to the right. In addition to remigration, Weidel wants to close Germany’s borders, quit using the Euro, and start buying Russian gas.
Even if the AfD loses, it will have its largest-ever voice in the Bundestag. The CDU will need a coalition, but negotiations with the next largest parties are likely to be fraught. We’re watching for extended gridlock in Berlin.
The European Union flag is displayed on a laptop screen and Elon Musk's account on X is displayed on a phone screen.
Musk vs. Europe: How far will each go?
Musk, the richest man in the world and owner of the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, used his money and social media muscle to help Trump become president again. Now, he’s turning his mind to European politics.
Musk is reportedly “probing how he and his right-wing allies can destabilize the UK Labour government” of Keir Starmer. Musk has been repeatedly sharing attacks on Starmer, alleging that he and his government have been complicit in covering up a child sex abuse scandal, although the evidence for that is not strong.
Musk favors the traditionally marginal right-wing Reform Party, although even its leader, Nigel Farage, has distanced himself from Musk’s celebration of Tommy Robinson, a far-right rabble-rouser in prison for contempt of court.
Before he can take down Starmer, though, Musk will host a conversation with the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany.
European leaders are speaking out against Musk, and they have the power to prosecute him for election interference if they choose. But he is powerful enough and close enough to Trump to make that a forbidding prospect. Trump could punish them if they go after his friend, but not doing so could look like acquiescence to the tech titan.
They face a conundrum, and at the moment they are focused on discouraging Trump from invading Greenland.Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen delivers a statement in Vienna, Austria, January 5, 2025.
Austria’s far right takes its first shot at government since World War II
Austria’s president asked the far-right, pro-Russia Freedom Party to form a government on Monday after talks between the traditional right and left parties collapsed over the weekend. The Freedom Party’s leader, Herbert Kickl, said he would begin negotiations with the center-right Austrian People’s Party, which had previously balked at playing second fiddle. The two parties are expected to be able to form a government now that former Chancellor Karl Nehammer from the Austrian People’s Party has stepped down.
The Freedom Party traces its roots to a former Nazi SS officer and politician, and like its peer far-right parties in Germany, France, and Italy, was heavily ostracized in the past. Now, Austria looks likely to join Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia as part of a growing bloc within the EU ruled by populist rightwingers.
How would a far-right government change Austria? On a policy level, Vienna is already quite conservative, advocating hardline migration and fiscal measures for the EU. Austria will also likely continue trying to exploit sanction loopholes with Russia, but not totally undermine them, says Eurasia Group’s Jan Techau.
“There are also fears of Orbanization in Austria as the far-right people are very ardent culture warriors,” says Techau, referring to the weakening of democratic institutions under Prime Minister Viktor Orban in neighboring Hungary. “We are not sure how far this can go. Austria is not Hungary, it’s a federal system, not a centralized state, and political and civil society pushback can be expected.”
We’re watching what the Freedom Party’s success might say about the rise of the far right in EU anchor states France and Germany this year.
Moscow turns off the tap
What is the impact? Gazprom will lose close to $5 billion in annual gas sales, while Ukraine will lose $800 million a year in transit fees from Russia. Analysts do not expect a surge in gas prices, and so far the European winter has been mild. EU nations had already cut dependency on Russian gas from 40% to less than 10% since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, ramping up imports of liquefied natural gas from the US and Qatar and accelerating investments in renewables. In 2023, Russia shipped around 15 billion cubic meters of gas through Ukraine to Europe, down from 65 billion cubic meters in 2020.
What’s next? While turning off the taps represents a symbolic end to Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, several EU countries, including Slovakia and Austria, continued to import significant amounts of gas from Russia, and will now rely on reserves and diversification. Slovakia has decried the stoppage, but EU candidate Moldova could face the worst impact. A harsh winter coupled with energy shortages in its breakaway area of Transnistria could prompt an exodus of pro-Russian refugees to Moldova, complicating its EU bid and further straining energy resources.
Gazprom will continue to deliver gas to Hungary, Turkey, and Serbia via other channels, including the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea.U.S. President Donald Trump poses with Vice President Mike Pence, first lady Melania Trump and Conan, the U.S. military dog that participated in and was injured in the U.S. raid in Syria that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, while standing with the dog's military handler on the colonnade of the West Wing of the White House in Washington, U.S., November 25, 2019.
Opinion: Roll over and play Trump
While the second season will not officially launch until Jan. 20, 2025, the Donald Trump show has already come to town. Look no further than Trump’s remarks this weekend at his first major post-election rally where he declared it the start of America’s “Golden Age.”
President Joe Biden’s final months in office may go down as the lamest of lame ducks. His administration’s post-election priority to bring peace to the Middle East has landed where so many other such endeavors have – in a pile of hopes and dreams. Instead, with Bashar Assad’s regime collapse in Syria, the conflagration has spread, taking on a seismic significance that is likely to lead to the vast reordering of the region, if it has not already begun.
A new norm
Biden’s presidency, once seen as a restoration from the Trump aberration, now appears more like the last gasp of the (post-)Cold Warriors. Trump is less of a deviation and more of a new norm. His protectionism and adoption of industrial policy are on the rise, reopening the settled debate around globalization. His emphasis on NATO members contributing more to their own collective security has also been internalized across European capitals and in Brussels. Populism and migration anxiety, each key Trump talking points, are pervasive trends.
With the dawning realization that the US will not be returning to a familiar role as the world’s superpower, global government and business leaders are considering what it will take to be Trump’s best friend.
Europe grapples for purchase
Europe received a major clue late last week when Trump took to social media to demand the European Union “make up their tremendous deficit with the US by the large scale purchases of our oil and gas.” Luckily for Europe, Trump’s message dovetails nicely with plansits leadership had reportedly already been developing to purchase more American LNG. Not only would doing so further reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy, but it offers a blueprint to avoid falling afoul of a costly trade war with its closest ally.
Also at play for Europe is how to maneuver around Ukraine. Six months ago, when Trump repeatedly suggested on the campaign trail that he would end the war in Ukraine on day one, it was generally met with a shrug and an eye roll. How could Trump unlock a resolution to a war that started on Feb. 24, 2022, but had roots going back decades?
And yet, sitting just months ahead of the third anniversary and with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s newfound willingness to negotiate, it seems more likely than at any previous time in this hot conflict that a deal may be possible. Perhaps the understanding that Trump would make good on promises to curb US support and the depth of the about-face in US policy Ukraine will soon encounter has clarified the stakes. How well Trump can apply pressure on Russia’s Vladimir Putin remains an open question, butPutin’s statements that he is ready for “negotiations and compromise” are telling.
Trump’s neighbors look to keep pace
Elsewhere, the question of how to operate in a world that is already Trump’s dominated Canadian politics in late December. A fragile government suffered a further corporal blow that may soon lead to its collapse after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau sought to shuffle Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s cabinet position.
Rather than go along with it, Freeland resigned,citing the need for a “true Team Canada response” to the incoming US administration’s “economic nationalism.” Freeland’s departure reflects not only Canada’s precarious frontline position to Trump’s agenda but also speaks to a wider geopolitical truth: resist the realities at one’s peril. Freeland put it in the plainest terms: “how we deal with the threat our country currently faces will define us for a generation, and perhaps longer.” These are not times for denying the signs flashing 25% incoming tariffs and America First. This is the moment for adapting to what Trump has clearly and repeatedly articulated as the direction of travel for US foreign policy.
Global business heeds the call
Across the business world, recognition of the unfolding realities has quickly taken hold. Sizeable financial commitments are being offered up to the next administration even before its first official day in office. Various multinationals with US headquarters have made donations to Trump’s inauguration committee. The list of donors includes global firms (many of them tech firms) that faced scrutiny during the Trump 1.0 administration. Not to be outdone, one international firmcommitted to $100 billion investment alongside the creation of 100,000 new US jobs. Bold pledges for bolder times, such support from the international business community aligns directly with a number of Trump’splatform positions from “Build[ing] the greatest economy in history” to “Protect[ing] American workers and farmers from unfair trade.”
Trump is on a winning streak, and he has not yet taken a single step into the White House as the 47th president.
From Washington to Wall Street, the effects of the “Trump trade” are already in motion. Around the world too, both leaders in government and business are hoping to find themselves on his “nice list” in the year ahead.
Why is TikTok being investigated by the EU over Romania's elections?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Northern Italy.
Why is the EU investigating TikTok over the elections in Romania?
Well in the first round of the Romanian presidential elections, there were suddenly, just days before the election, over 25,000 TikTok accounts that suddenly appeared. And they seemed to be supporting, very heavily, the rather sudden far-right candidate who had quite a result in that particular election that has subsequently been annulled. So it makes sense to investigate what really happened and who was behind it.
What is the new French prime minister doing in order to resolve the political crisis of the country?
Early days. He hasn't even presented his government as of yet. But I would guess that he will try to have a dialogue both with the elements of the moderate left and the moderate right to see if he can get a budget through. He is an experienced operator on the French political scene. Perhaps less determined in terms of policies than Michel Barnier was, but let's see. I think he'll present his policy program by mid-January, and there we'll be able to judge somewhat more clearly what prospects he has.
- In historic first, Romania annuls election over claims of TikTok interference ›
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- TikTok is the ultimate propaganda tool, says tech expert Scott Galloway ›
- Macron has put France’s fate in Le Pen’s hands ›
- What France's government collapse means for Macron and Europe ›
Can Syria rebuild to welcome returning refugees?
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from San Francisco, United States.
with all of the millions of Syrian refugees that you find in Europe, what's got to be the consequences for them of the fall of the Assad regime?
Well, the first thing that's happened is that European countries have imposed new asylum applications from Syria. That's fairly logical. But the bigger question is, of course, to which is that it will be possible for these people to return. Very many of them want to. There have been a huge number of people who've already returned, primarily from Turkey. But that's going to be dependent upon stability in the governance of Syria. That's still an open question for that. And secondly, economic reconstruction. That is both humanitarian aid and then lifting eventually the economic sanctions so that there is the possibility of bringing the country back again and people having the possibility to go back. Let's see, let's hope, and let's work on that.
What's the nature of the big agreement that is now being concluded with the European Union and the Mercosur countries of South America?
It's been negotiated for a very long time. It's a free trade agreement. It's a partnership agreement. It is going to be the biggest such in the world. It's two huge economies. Significant benefits in reducing trade and opening up for more of trade to the benefit of the European economy, to the benefit of the economies of the Latin American countries. There's still opposition to it in some European countries, notably France. That has to do with the French farmers fearing competition from more competitive Brazilian perhaps beef or whatever it is. That, has to be said, is something that is good for the European consumers. So slight battle ahead inside the European Union, but hopefully it will go through. And as I said, the biggest such deal that the world has seen so far.
What France's government collapse means for Macron and Europe
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Parma, Italy.
First question, obviously, is what's happening in France?
The Barnier government didn't last more than 57 days. It was brought down by the populists of the right and the populists of the left. And Barnier tried to do what needs to be done. Bring the French budget under control. They have a deficit of roughly 6% of GDP. That's double what is allowed under the European Union rules and they were headed to 7%. He had proposed a budget of tax cuts and expenditure cuts, take it down to 5%, which is too high anyhow, and brought down. So what will happen now? Well, Marine Le Pen would like to get rid of Macron. I think that's unlikely to happen in the short perspective anyhow. And Macron, the president, will have to find a new prime minister and a new government. That will take its time. And from the wider European perspective, of course, less than ideal. We have an extremely weak government in Germany heading for elections and likely to lose that particular election. We now have a situation where France doesn't have any functioning government either, and we have things happening on the other side of the Atlantic.
Second question, is there any way for the European Union and other Europeans to influence the course of events in Georgia?
Well, one would hope so, but I think prospects are not particularly good. We have an increasingly seemingly authoritarian, I would call it, government leaning towards some sort of, call it, Putin-esque regime, consolidating power using violence, have evidently falsified and rigged elections to a very large extent, and intending to stay in power. And now, we have a fairly significant popular opposition developing on the streets of not only Tbilisi, but several other Georgian cities. Will that result in violence? Will that result in some sort of accommodation? Will that result in it all being repressed? We don't know. EU will have to, and America as well, contemplate sanctions and other measures in a fairly short period of time in order to have any possibility of influencing the course of events. Otherwise, I fear the prospects are rather grim.