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Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Delhi, India.
Is Europe prepared for a Trump presidency?
And that's of course the big issue around every capital of Europe. There are two major issues and concerns.
One of them, obviously, the Russian war against Ukraine. What will be the US policy? Trump has promised to make peace within 24 hours. That's not going to happen. Putin is determined to continue this particular war. What would be the consequences then? Is Trump going to throw Ukraine under the bus, abandon support and thus abandon de facto concerns for the security of Europe? How would Europe react to that big issue?
Second big issue, tariffs. Trump has said that tariffs is the word that he loves most of all words. And he said that he's going to impose 10, 20% tariffs on all imports and far more on imports, of course, from China. That's going to have hugely negative effects for the global economy, also for the European economy, US economy and everyone else. What's going to be the European reaction to that? Counter tariffs or trying to line up with other global trade actors to preserve as much as we can, open up a big global trading system? Huge issues. No answer until by January 20th we know what the Trump administration is going to do. One conclusion, fairly obvious; we better buckle up.
The 2024 Paris Peace Forum faces a dysfunctional global order
The 7th annual Paris Peace Forum is getting underway, convening diplomats, academics, and private sector leaders tasked with finding solutions to mounting global crises before conflicts erupt. Spoiler alert: That mission has not been accomplished.
The Forum’s theme is “Wanted: A Functioning Global Order,” and will focus on topics such as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, funding for climate action, and countering disinformation and digital attacks to restore trust in cyberspace.
These conversations are particularly fraught following key political developments last week—Donald Trump’s clear victory in the US presidential election, and the collapse of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government following months of economic crisis. Both of those signal more unpredictable times to come for European politics.
GZERO’s Tony Maciulis is on the ground at the Paris Peace Forum for our Global Stage series, and interviewed Justin Vaisse, the organization’s founder and Director General. Top of mind for Vaisse, of course, was Trump’s election and what it means for Europe.
“I don’t think Trump will simply throw Ukraine under the bus,” Vaisse said. “The conclusion is still, however, that Europe should be ready to support Ukraine by itself. Whether it can is another question, but it should be ready.”
Check out Tony’s full interview with Justin Vaisse here, and look for more coverage of the Paris Peace Forum from GZERO this week.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) and former President Donald Trump, meeting in New York City on Sept. 27, 2024.
How will Trump 2.0 approach foreign policy?
Donald Trump’s return to the White House will have massive geopolitical implications. During his first term, Trump’s chaotic foreign policy was driven by his “America First” philosophy, which combined a transactional view of alliances and an isolationist-leaning skepticism about US involvement in foreign conflicts. He withdrew from major agreements, routinely insulted allies (often via tweets), questioned the value of NATO and the UN, launched a trade war with China, cozied up to authoritarian adversaries, and was viewed as an untrustworthy leader across the globe.
Given the tumultuous nature of his initial four years in office, the world is now bracing for the impact of Trump’s return.
Here’s a closer look at what we can expect from Trump on some of the biggest foreign policy issues.
China
Trump 1.0 took a hardline approach to trade with China, which he holds responsible for draining American manufacturing jobs. He imposed several rounds of tariffs that were continued by the Biden administration.
The president-elect has threatened to raise those tariffs further – up to 60%. China, which has been struggling economically, is ramping up exports in order to get ahead of any Trump 2.0 tariffs.
Trump has also threatened to revoke the CHIPS Act, a law signed by President Joe Biden to increase competitiveness with Beijing in the semiconductors race by offering billions to companies that produce in the US. Trump says he prefers to simply slap tariffs on Chinese chips directly.
Taiwan
Trump’s victory is making Taiwan anxious, amid questions over whether he’ll continue to support the self-governing island democracy as it contends with an increasingly aggressive China. The president-elect has called for Taiwan, which Beijing views as a breakaway province, to begin paying the US for defense. By law, the US is committed to providing Taiwan with defensive weapons. The island purchases billions in arms from the US.
Trump has also accused Taiwan, the world’s biggest producer of semiconductors, of stealing the US’s “chip business.”
When asked in October whether he would use military force against a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, Trump said, “I wouldn’t have to” because Xi “respects” him and knows he’s “f— crazy.”
The Middle East
Trump’s election victory is good news for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During his first term, Trump took numerous steps that aided Netanyahu’s agenda. He controversially moved the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, and said the US no longer considered Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank as illegal under international law. Bibi in a tweet celebrated Trump’s win as “history’s greatest comeback!”
Trump will likely be even more pro-Israel than Biden – former CIA Chief Leon Panetta has even said he expects the president-elect to give Netanyahu “a blank check.”
But Trump has also expressed a desire for a quick end to the war in Gaza and has vowed to bring peace to the region. At a minimum, his election win gives Netanyahu room to delay any cease-fire deal until after Trump’s inauguration.
Saudi Arabia is also likely pleased to see Trump return. He stood by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the aftermath of the kingdom’s brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and derailed efforts in Washington to punish Riyadh. Trump could potentially use his strong ties with Saudi Arabia to foster a deal that would see the oil-rich country normalize ties with Israel — though the Saudis still say this won’t happen until the issue of Palestinian statehood is resolved.
Trump’s win also has significant implications with regard to Iran, which is currently locked in a tit-for-tat with Israel that has fueled fears of a wider war in the Middle East.
The US and Iran were on the brink of war under Trump after he ordered the strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, a top Iranian general. Tensions were already high at the time due to Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose harsh economic sanctions in a failed bid to get Tehran to agree to a stricter deal.
Trump has pledged to avoid new wars in his second term and in September signaled he was open to talks with Tehran to achieve a new agreement to ensure Iran doesn’t develop a nuclear weapon. But if he once again pursues a “maximum pressure” strategy, it could raise the risk of conflict.
Ukraine
Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours,” but he hasn’t elaborated on how he’ll accomplish this.
As a result, his victory ushers in a new era of uncertainty for Kyiv. Trump, who’s repeatedly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin, opposes continued US support for Ukraine’s war against the Russian invasion. The Ukrainian military would struggle to sustain the fight without continued US assistance.
The dynamic between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is awkward. Trump’s first impeachment in 2019 was tied to his decision to freeze aid to Ukraine as he pressured Zelensky to launch an investigation into Biden over bogus corruption allegations.
Trump has also blamed Zelensky for the war with Russia, though it was Putin who ordered the Russian invasion of the former Soviet republic.
But Zelensky on Wednesday said he had a “great” conversation with Trump as he congratulated him on winning the election. “We agreed to maintain a close dialogue and develop our cooperation. Strong and steadfast US leadership is vital to the world and to a just peace,” he added, praising Trump’s “peace through strength” approach to global affairs.
Putin on Thursday also congratulated Trump, praising him as a “brave man.” The Russian leader added that what Trump has said “about the desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves attention at least.”
Mexico
The US-Mexico relationship could suffer under Trump, who routinely rails against the country in relation to immigration, has pledged to conduct mass deportations, and has even suggested the US should use military force against Mexican drug cartels.
Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on America’s southern neighbor — and largest trading partner — even though this would potentially violate the trade deal that he negotiated with Mexico and Canada while in office.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is so far playing it cool in the face of these threats. On Wednesday, Sheinbaum said Mexicans have “nothing to worry about” over Trump’s election win.
“We are a free, independent, sovereign country and there will be good relations with the United States. I am convinced of this,” Sheinbaum added.
Europe
Trump’s victory raises many questions about US relations with Europe. Amid ongoing economic woes across the continent, European leaders are unsettled by Trump’s threat to apply blanket tariffs on goods imported into the US. But it remains to be seen whether Trump will make good on this.
Trump frequently clashed with European allies during his first term, using unprecedented and alarming threats to withdraw from NATO altogether as a means of getting them to spend more on defense as part of the alliance.. His win is sparking fresh conversations about the need for Europe to be less reliant on the US for defense.
NATO chief Mark Rutte on Thursday said Trump was “right” to pressure NATO countries to spend more on defense. The NATO chief said he was “looking forward” to sitting down with Trump to discuss issues of concern to the alliance.
Meanwhile, the far right prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, celebrated the US election result as a “much needed victory for the world,” though on Thursday he cautioned that trade relations with a more protectionist administration “will not be easy.”
- The 2024 Paris Peace Forum faces a dysfunctional global order - GZERO Media ›
- UN's Rebeca Grynspan on the world’s debt crisis: Can it be solved? - GZERO Media ›
- Trump's plans for policy & personnel - GZERO Media ›
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- Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return - GZERO Media ›
Europe's reaction to US election win: Gloom and despair
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Stockholm, Sweden.
This is Carl Bildt in Stockholm. I’m going to do one question this morning.
What’s the mood on this side of the Atlantic after the US election?
Well, I think it can be summed up fairly shortly: gloom and despair in Brussels and Kyiv, jubilation in expectations in Budapest, and a determination to press on in Moscow and Tel Aviv. That’s roughly, it.
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- Europe's biggest concerns about Trump's return - GZERO Media ›
Aubrey and Taylor Endicott cast their votes while their children, from left, Sterling, 5, Adelaide, 3, and Lincoln, 7, wait patiently under the voting tables at Shawnee Heights Middle School on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.
What to expect when the US is expecting
In making her final pitch to American voters before 75,000 attendees on the National Mall, Vice President Kamala Harris closed by declaring: “The United States of America is the greatest idea humanity ever devised.” While undoubtedly hyperbolic, Harris’ remarks point to the heart of what is at stake in the US election: For the US and other countries with elected leaders, Tuesday’s election represents a referendum on the future of democracy. Will it come away battered, or will it remain intact?
Harris hopes American voters place system over self – rights over kitchen table issues. Only with hindsight will her campaign find out whether this was a winning strategy.
Still, one of Europe’s most frequently repeated questions about the US election is whether we will see a repeat of Jan. 6, 2021. Watching Americans climb their Capitol building shocked the international audience. While observers abroad may not fully agree with Harris’ declaration, seeing the fissures in the US democratic system laid bare that Wednesday in January shifted perceptions of what was possible in America. If the US could come under attack from within, where next? If the US could not uphold its democratic promise, who could?
Although many Americans have hoped to tuck aside the storming of the US Capitol as a 2020 election “one-off,” the sentiment of that day has lingered. Former President Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance, routinely claim that the 2020 election was stolen and that Trump never lost. At a Pennsylvania rally over the weekend, Trump lamented that he “shouldn’t have left” office in 2020. Three years after the Jan. 6 riot, polling found that roughly two-thirds of Republicans still did not believe President Joe Biden was legitimately elected, a proportion that has grown since 2021.
According to the Brennan Center for Justice, “extensive research reveals that fraud is very rare, voter impersonation is virtually nonexistent, and many instances of alleged fraud are, in fact, mistakes by voters or administrators.”
Yet, at his final major rally at Madison Square Garden, Trump warned his supporters, “We must defeat Kamala Harris and stop her radical left agenda with a landslide that is too big to rig.”
This leaving open the door to the risk of fraud, a stolen election, and “a rig” – whether valid or not – makes clear that should Trump lose when all the votes are counted, he will not go quietly. Nor will his supporters.
Trump is right to point out that the margin of victory this week will be pivotal for what happens next. Democracy is a system in which groups lose elections and accept the election results. Losers consent to being losers in any given election because they believe they will have the opportunity to participate in the next cycle. Losers withdraw this consent, however, when they come to believe that the institutional framework will not allow them to become winners – the system is rigged against them.
With the 2020 election still so salient, Trump and his supporters are primed to interpret any small loss in today’s election as evidence of the big rig. A narrow margin of victory that delivers Harris 270 electoral college votes likely represents the most volatile outcome of today’s election. For those forces unleashed in 2020 and still itching for a fight, a small Harris victory – perceived by them as improbable – is an easy mark. A wide margin of victory for Harris presents its own potential for criticism, especially as both aggregate national and swing state polling have consistently been so close. But should Harris pull off a meaningful polling surprise, it may suck the air out of the fraud argument and deflate the Trump world.
Given that Trump is not currently president and does not hold the reins of office, a replay of Jan. 6 is remote, but a flood of legal cases and calls for recounts is certain. Disturbances at courthouses and state government buildings should also be expected. Challenges within Congress around vote certification, especially should Republicans retain the House and regain the Senate, will be set in motion. And where there is disaffection, as there is in this post-pandemic, hyper-polarized political moment in the US, political violence cannot be ruled out.
We are in for a wild finish. What happens between today and the full results, and between the full results and Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, 2025, will be fluid. Many ideas are at stake, not the least of which is the foundational idea of democracy itself. As the US votes, the world holds its breath.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.
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Ukraine and the future of Europe
As Russia’s invasion rages on with no end in sight, Ukraine’s future hangs in the balance. Continued US support is far from guaranteed, and future policy toward Ukraine won't be clear until after the dust settles from the US election. Amid this uncertainty, the European Union has emerged as Ukraine’s strongest ally. The war is being fought only miles from EU borders and European leaders are working overtime to make sure the bloc is able to stand on its own, militarily and economically.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sat down with European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, one of Ukraine’s staunchest defenders, to ask about its path to EU membership and the future of Europe’s strategic autonomy. Despite Ukraine’s financial challenges, Metsola unequivocally believes European enlargement is a “win-win,” pointing to Poland’s successful trajectory after it joined the EU in 2004. There is still a lot of work to do to strengthen Europe’s voice on the global stage, Metsola admits, and the EU has a responsibility to show the world it can lead by example.
“We make it so difficult for countries to join the European Union, but then let the countries that are inside of Europe do whatever they like,” Metsola says, “We don't have rules to make sure that our basic tenets, fundamentals of democracy work.”
Watch the full episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Can Europe become a global superpower?
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
A global leadership void and ongoing wars
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi, everybody, Ian Bremmer here, and a Quick Take to kick off your week. I am here in Tokyo, Japan. Just got back from Beijing. Being in this part of the world has me thinking a little bit about the state of our world and leadership, or should I say, the lack thereof. Those of you following me know I talk about a G-zero world, not a G-7, not a G-20, a place where we lack global leadership, and that has been so clear, thinking about the wars that continue, between Israel and Palestine, and now Lebanon, and more broadly in the Middle East, and between Russia and Ukraine, and increasingly NATO in Europe.
I think about the fact that all over the world, everyone wants these wars to be over. They're causing enormous amounts of suffering, displacement of human beings, massive war crimes, but they persist. It's worth thinking about what that means in terms of leadership because when we talk about the Middle East, and Israel-Palestine in particular, the United States is the most powerful ally of Israel, overwhelmingly in terms of its political and diplomatic support, its economic support, technological support, its military aid and training and intelligence. And yet, over the last year, the United States has had virtually no influence in the ability to contain, constrain, or end this war, irrespective of all the suffering.
You can complain about the United States on that with good reason, but then you look at Russia-Ukraine, and you see that over the last three years, China's been, by far, the most powerful friend and supporter of Russia, massive amounts of trade only expanding and dual-use technologies and diplomatic support. Yet, despite that, China has been unwilling to use any influence on Russia to try to bring the war to the end.
Now, to be clear, both the United States and China say all the right things. In Beijing, I was hearing from the leaders that they're friends with the Ukrainians and they maintain stable relations, and of course they want the war over, and they respect Ukrainian territorial integrity. And of course, the Americans support a two-state solution for the Palestinians and want to ensure that they get humanitarian aid and want to see a ceasefire happen, but I mean, the revealed preferences of both of these countries is their willingness to do anything about it is virtually zero. The Chinese don't care about the Ukrainians ultimately. That's what we're learning over the last few years. The Americans don't care about the Palestinians ultimately. That's what we've learned over the last year.
Absent leadership from the two most powerful countries in the world, where do you think we're going to get geopolitically? The answer is, to a much more dangerous place. That's the concern. I don't see that changing, particularly whether we have a Harris or a Trump presidency. I don't see that changing whether we have a Xi or a Xi presidency in China. It's not like they're making any real choices going forward. But look, maybe I'll be surprised. And certainly, it would be nice if no matter who wins, this was a topic of conversation between the Americans and the Chinese. That, "Hey, China. If you'd be willing to do a little bit more with Russia, we'd be willing to do a little bit more with Israel." I mean, frankly, at the end of the day, that's the kind of horse-trading I think we could really use diplomatically. Right now, that's a conversation that hasn't happened yet, but maybe it will.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to y'all real soon.
Can Europe become a global superpower?
It’s a critical time for Europe. In the recent European Union elections, voters unhappy with the establishment status quo delivered historic gains for far-right, nationalist parties in countries like France and Germany. But a fractured EU Parliament makes it harder for the ruling centrist coalition to deliver on key priorities like immigration reform and the Green deal. Can the 27 member states come together to address big challenges?
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola discusses Europe’s future amid an ongoing migrant crisis, the war in Ukraine, and an economic slowdown. The EU is the world’s largest trading bloc and a regulatory superpower, but Metsola says Europe needs to strengthen its strategic autonomy to avoid getting squeezed by the US and China. Part of that vision includes Ukraine joining the European Union, which Metsola tells Bremmer is unequivocably “win-win” for both sides. But finding consensus among so many countries, cultures, and political parties in the EU government can be a major challenge.
“We’re not yet coherent, I think we've weakened ourselves by being a cacophony of what we think we want,” Metsola says, "We still have not, as a European Union, become better as a whole than individual countries.“
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
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