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A European flag blows in the wind in front of the Saxon state parliament.
What We’re Watching: EU goes green, Ethiopians at war, Taliban gains, Bolsonaro’s hiccups
Europe's green moonshot: The EU is going big on climate policy. On Wednesday the European Commission, the bloc's political cupola, committed to reducing EU greenhouse gas emissions 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and to reach carbon neutrality by 2050. These plans are the most ambitious of any large country or union on Earth: recent pledges by the US and China, the number one and number two polluters, are both more modest. The EU's proposals include new carbon trading schemes, investments in green tech, boosts for electric vehicles, and financial support to help lower-income communities adopt clean technologies. But as always, the EU's best-laid plans will still need to run through the wringer of 27 member states, each with their own agendas and constituencies. We, and the planet, are watching to see what things look like on the other side of that.
New front in Ethiopian war? In the days since a sudden — and now short-lived — ceasefire paused eight months of civil war in Ethiopia, Tigrayan forces have been re-establishing control over territory that they lost to Ethiopian government troops during the conflict. But that's already raising fears of anotherwar. Why? Well, Tigray People's Liberation Front fighters are moving (back) into areas of Tigray that are claimed by the neighboring Amhara state — in a long-running border dispute of their own. That has prompted Amharan nationalists to call on their local ethnic militias to mobilize for war against the Tigrayans. This is merely the latest challenge to face PM Abiy Ahmed, who earlier this month won controversial nationwide elections, but continues to struggle to contain resurgent ethnic and regional strife in the country.
Taliban border moves: The Taliban claim to have won a big prize in their 20-year quest to regain full control of Afghanistan: the strategic border crossing linking the Afghan town of Spin Boldak with the Pakistani city of Chaman. It's the second busiest transit point between the two countries, and connects Pakistan's ports to Kandahar, Afghanistan's second largest city and former Taliban stronghold. The move will enable the Taliban to choke off supplies for the Afghan government — which right now barely controls any territory outside of major cities — and to bring in scores of Taliban fighters hosted by Baluchi militants across the border in Pakistan. If the Taliban maintain the pace of their military campaign, they could take Kabul and rule the entire country before the last US troops leave.
What's We're Listening To
A popul- hic! A populist's stom- hic! Stomach! Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro has been hospitalized, reportedly to figure out a chronic case of... hiccups. The controversial rightwing populist had health scares before, including COVID, and the state of his innards has been a source of outward concern at least since he was badly stabbed during a 2018 campaign stop. As Bolsonaro faces fresh allegations of corruption and a daunting path to re-election in 2022, we are watching, and listening, closely for more — hic! — news.
Is it the Greens' moment in Europe?
Europe has been hit by a green wave in recent years. Green parties in countries as varied as Germany, Belgium, France, Ireland, Finland, and Sweden have made sizable electoral gains, with some now sitting in national governments.
The Green phenomenon seems to be gaining yet more momentum in the lead up to some crucial European elections (Germany, France) in the months ahead. What explains the green shift, and where might this trend be headed?
Collapse of the mainstream center-left. Mainstream center-left parties in places like the Netherlands and Italy, as well as the Labour Party in the UK, have imploded in recent years, hemorrhaging popular support as a result. But while these parties have collapsed, demand for left-of-center policies remains high. This is precisely what has taken place in France, where the once-dominant Socialist Party is now on the fringe of French politics — a vacuum that has been filled by France's Green Party. Polls suggest that the environment is the second-most important issue for French voters, behind unemployment, a shift reflected in the fact that France's three biggest cities — Paris, Lyon, and Marseilles — all have left-leaning mayors (Lyon and Marseilles are run by the Greens.)
But French voters are not just looking for politicians that pay lip service to leftist causes like the environment, they are seeking authentic center-left leadership. President Emmanuel Macron — whose LREM party exploited disillusionment with France's traditionally dominant center-left in 2017 and campaigned on a pledge to "make our planet great again" — has failed to resonate with left-wing voters that see him as a non-committal ideological chameleon who has watered down a once-ambitious climate agenda. The Greens have filled this void, making massive gains in municipal elections last year that forced a flailing Macron to introduce a wide-ranging climate bill. (Still, critics say the bill doesn't go far enough.)
Exerting outsized political influence. In some countries, Green parties have evolved from single-issue environmental protest groups into center-left blocs championing a range of issues. As a result, they have made inroads at the national level to significantly impact policy. In the Republic of Ireland, for instance, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, establishment parties, needed the support of the Green Party, which has just 4,000 registered members, to form a viable coalition government after the last election. The Greens agreed on the condition that the government commit to reduce carbon emissions by 7 percent annually. Since then, they have also helped pass a bill to put Ireland's net zero emissions goal into law. Those are big achievements for a party that holds just 12 seats in a governing coalition made up of 84 parliamentary seats in the lower house.
"Not the Greens of the Cold War" era. In some political contexts, the Greens have adopted a pragmatic approach to a political landscape that has undergone seismic shifts in recent years. Against the backdrop of a right-wing populist wave in Germany, as well as an economic model that is somewhat outdated in the age of a dominant China and worsening climate crisis, the German Green Party has tried to position itself as an authentic center-left party for the masses.
Under the joint leadership of Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, who this week was tapped as the party's candidate to replace Angela Merkel as chancellor, the Greens have taken advantage of Merkel's conservative coalition's struggles to push a moderate foreign-policy agenda. The party has advocated for getting tougher on China and is also a proponent of NATO and boosting ties with Washington. Importantly, the Greens say that Germany needs to better address climate change without alienating the corporate sector and working-class people.
The Greens are now leading in the polls and have a solid chance to form the next government after Germans vote in federal elections this fall. Their success is drawing praise even from rivals. Norbert Röttgen of Merkel's CDU party, for example, recently said that "however embarrassing for me, the Greens have the clearest stance of all the parties on China and Russia."
Looking ahead. The green wave in Europe does not appear to be a fad. In many countries, people are desperate for change, and the Greens seem to be meeting the moment while other (traditional) political parties flounder.