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How to protect elections in the age of AI
Half of the world’s population will have the chance to head to the polls this year in dozens of critical elections worldwide. These votes, which will shape policy and democracy for years to come, come amid light-speed development in artificial intelligence. As Eurasia Group noted in its 2024 Top Risk entitled “Ungoverned AI,” generative AI could be used by domestic and foreign actors – we’re looking at you, Russia – to impact campaigns and undermine trust in democracy.
To meet the moment, GZERO Media, on the ground at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, held a Global Stage discussion on Feb. 17 entitled “Protecting Elections in the Age of AI.” We spoke with Brad Smith, vice chair and president of Microsoft; Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media; Fiona Hill, senior fellow for the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings; Eva Maydell, an EU parliamentarian and a lead negotiator of the EU Chips Act and Artificial Intelligence Act; Kersti Kaljulaid, the former president of Estonia; with European correspondent Maria Tadeo moderating. The program also featured interviews with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Greece’s prime minister, and Benedikt Franke, CEO and vice-chair of the Munich Security Conference. These thought leaders and experts discussed the implications of the rapid rise of AI amid this historic election year.
The group started by delving into what Bremmer has referred to as the “Voldemort” of years surrounding elections, to look at how election interference and disinformation have evolved since 2016.
“This is the year that people have been very concerned about, but have kind of hoped that they could push off. It's not just because there are elections all over the world and trust in institutions is deteriorating, it's also because the most powerful country in the world, and it's not becoming less powerful, is also one of the most politically dysfunctional,” says Bremmer, referring to the US.
The 2024 US presidential election “is maximally distrust-laden,” says Bremmer, adding that it’s “really hard to have a free and fair election in the US that all of its population” believes is legitimate.
And the worry is that AI could complicate the landscape even further.
Hill agreed that there’s cause for concern but underscored that people should not “panic” to a point where they’re “paralyzed” and “not taking action.”
“Panic is not an option given the stakes,” says Hill, adding, “There are negative aspects of all of this, but there's also the kind of question that we have to grapple with is how when legitimate competitors or opposition movements that otherwise beleaguered decide to use AI tools, that then also has an impact.”
There’s no doubt that AI can be used for nefarious purposes. Deepfakes can fool even the most discerning eye. Disinformation has already been rampant across the internet in recent election cycles and helped sow major divisions in many countries well before AI tools — far more sophisticated than your average meme — were widely available.
“With new tools and products that use generative AI, including from a company like ours, somebody can create a very realistic video, audio, or image. Just think about the different ways it can be used. Somebody can use it and they can make a video of themself, and they can make clear in the video that this is AI generated. That is one way a political candidate, even one who is in prison can speak,” says Smith, alluding to ex-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent use of AI from behind bars.
Along these lines, there are many serious, valid concerns about the impact AI can have on elections and democracy more generally — particularly at a time when people are exhibiting rising levels of distrust in key institutions.
“It's very important to acknowledge a lot of the important developments that AI and emerging tech can bring to support our economic development,” says Maydell, adding, “but in the same time, especially this year, we need to be very sober about some of those threats that are in a way threatening the very fabric of our democratic societies.
As Maydell noted, this evolving new technology can be harnessed for good and bad. Can AI be used as a tool to protect candidates and the integrity of the electoral process?
A number of major tech companies, including Microsoft, signed an accord at the Munich Security Conference on Friday to help thwart and combat AI-related election interference.
“It's all about trying to put ourselves in a position, not to solve this problem completely, I don't think that's possible, but to manage this new reality in a way that will make a difference,” says Smith. The Microsoft president says the accord brings the tech sector together to preserve the authenticity of content, including by working to detect deepfakes and providing candidates with a mechanism to report any that are created about them.
“We'll work together to promote transparency and public education. This clearly is going to require a lot of work with civil society, with others around the world to help the public be ready,” says Smith.
But is enough being done?
“It's good that both politicians and the companies and society as a whole now has a better understanding where this is all leading us and we are collectively taking actions,” says Kaljulaid, but this is just a “first step” and “next steps need to follow.”
A balance will need to be found between legislating the challenges presented by AI and giving tech companies space to collaborate, innovate and address problems on their own.
“Democracy is always in jeopardy. Every generation has to answer the call to defend it,” says Smith, adding, “Now it's our turn. It's our turn as a generation of people to say that technology always changes, but democracy is a value that we hold timeless. So let's do what it takes to defend it, to preserve and promote it.”
The livestream was part of the Global Stage series, produced by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft. These discussions convene heads of state, business leaders, and technology experts from around the world for critical debate about the geopolitical and technology trends shaping our world.
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Live premiere today at 12 pm ET: Can we use AI to protect elections?
Today at 12 pm ET/9 am PT/6 pm CET, watch the live premiere of our Global Stage discussion at the Munich Security Conference, "Munich 2024: Protecting Elections in the Age of AI." 2024 is truly the “Year of Elections” with more than 75 nations heading to the polls, affecting roughly half the world’s population. But an ongoing decline of trust in institutions plus an explosion of AI tools and deep fake technologies could create a dangerous environment. Our panel will examine how AI can also be a way to protect consumers and candidates, helping to shore up the integrity of the electoral process. Can AI be used to quickly flag and even eliminate online lies and misinformation?
European correspondent Maria Tadeo moderates the conversation with an expert panel including:
- Ian Bremmer, President and Founder, Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
- Fiona Hill, Senior Fellow, Center on the United States and Europe, Brookings
- Kersti Kaljulaid, former President of Estonia
- Eva Maydell, Member of the European Parliament and lead negotiator, EU Chips Act and Artificial Intelligence Act.
- Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President, Microsoft
- Special appearances by Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Prime Minister of Greece, and Benedikt Franke, Vice-Chairman and CEO, Munich Security Conference
More about Global Stage:
Global Stage: Global issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and societyyoutu.be
2022 has been rough. Will 2023 be any better?
2022 has been the year of converging crises: the ongoing pandemic, climate change, economic turmoil, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Lots of gloom and doom, indeed.
But in all these crises, there is an opportunity to bounce back with solutions to make the world a better place. Think of how the war in Ukraine united the West more than ever against a common enemy.
How? Good question. We asked several experts during the Global Stage livestream conversation "The Road to 2030: Getting Global Goals Back on Track," hosted by GZERO in partnership with Microsoft.
For Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO, the main reason for hope in 2023 is that this year some people realized that there are big problems worth fixing. Although we definitely live in a G-zero world with a vacuum of global leadership, he adds, we've also seen unprecedented Western unity that would not have happened without Russia invading Ukraine. Ian believes that resistance to a negotiated solution to the war will come from the developing world and that Elon Musk is definitely complicating things with how he's running Twitter.
Microsoft President Brad Smith discussed the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which at their halfway point he sees as a "glass half full, half empty" but questions how progress is being measured. Also, Smith sees Russia turning to civilians in Ukraine because its military is losing against Ukrainian soldiers, which he regards as the opposite of what the world agreed to do after World War II. On climate, he doesn't see things in good shape after COP27 but hopes today's multiple ongoing crises will push us to do more things together.
Melissa Fleming, the UN's Undersecretary-General for Global Communications, laments there is so much more to be done to make the world a better place next year, but there's so much lethargy amid all the gloom and doom. She also braces for Ukraine's tough winter as Russia targets the country's energy infrastructure. Fleming is worried about a disturbing spike in climate change disinformation, which has returned to the denial narrative when people most need to be informed about what's happening to the planet.
Khadija Mayman from the Whitaker Peace & Development Initiative underscores the need for young people in her community to get mental health support. Other types of support would be welcome, too — youth want to do the work, but they can't wait forever for jobs, so we need to help create businesses that'll employ them.
Hindou Ibrahim, co-chair of the International Indigenous Peoples Forum on Climate Change, says that we can't protect biodiversity without first recognizing Indigenous peoples' rights to land and access to finance. We must all be partners, she adds, and Indigenous peoples are the "CEOs" (chief ecological officers) of the planet's biodiversity.
Dr. Omnia El Omrani, Youth Envoy for COP27 and SDG Champion, resents how young people's voices are excluded from the global climate conversation while they are disproportionately impacted by the effects of climate change. She wants to create a space for young people to be able to shape their own futures without killing their dreams.
This livestream is the latest in the Webby-nominated Global Stage series, a partnership between GZERO and Microsoft that examines critical issues at the intersection of technology, politics, and society.
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Watch live today at 12 pm ET: Top Risks for 2023
2022 was a year of converging crises. What challenges lie ahead for 2023?
Today at 12 pm ET, watch our live discussion of the Top Risks of 2023, an annual Eurasia Group report forecasting the political risks most likely to play out and how they could impact governments, the private sector, and the world.
The authors of the report, Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group's founder and president, and Cliff Kupchan, its chairman, will be joined by Eurasia Group experts Anna Ashton, Director, China Corporate Affairs and US-China; Franck Gbaguidi, Senior Analyst, Climate, Energy & Resources; and Rob Kahn, Managing Director, Global Macro-Geoeconomics, to share their analysis in a GZERO Media live event moderated by GZERO's publisher, Evan Solomon.
Top Risks 2023
Tuesday, January 3, 2023 | 12 pm ET
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Watch live: Turning biodiversity risk into opportunity
TODAY AT 8 AM ET: Among the many challenges stemming from climate change: natural ecosystems and habitats are being destroyed.
Recognition of the link between business sustainability and a healthy, living planet has motivated businesses to incorporate nature into decision-making. But the private sector needs help – from policymakers, scientists, and communities – to measure impact and devise sustainable solutions.
In our live digital event on December 14, Tak Niinami, CEO, Suntory Holdings, will be joined by Eurasia Group & GZERO Media president Ian Bremmer, experts from Eurasia Group’s climate team, private and public leaders, scientists, and other experts on the world’s nature and biodiversity to address this challenge and chart a path towards reversing nature loss.
Time for nature: Turning biodiversity risk into opportunity
Wednesday, Dec 14 2022 | 8 am EST / 10 pm JST
Register to attend and receive the playback after the livestream concludes.
Speakers
- Magali Anderson, Chief Sustainability and Innovation Officer, Holcim Technology
- Ko Barrett, Senior Advisor for Climate, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media
- Katie Critchlow, CEO, NatureMetrics
- Rohitesh Dhawan, CEO, International Council on Mining and Metals
- Ingrid Kukuljan, Head of Impact & Sustainable Investing, Federated Hermes
- Eva Mayerhofer, Head of Environment Policy Unit, European Investment Bank
- Kathleen McLaughlin, EVP and Chief Sustainability Officer, Walmart Inc & President, Walmart Foundation
- Emily McKenzie, Technical Director, Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures
- Tak Niinami, CEO, Suntory Holdings
- Vian Sharif, Head of Sustainability, FNZ Group
- Shari Friedman, Managing Director, Climate & Sustainability, Eurasia Group (moderator)
- Franck Gbaguidi, Senior Analyst, Energy, Climate & Resources, Eurasia Group (moderator)
The livestream is part of the Sustainability Leaders Council, in partnership with Suntory Holdings, Fubon Financial, Gund Investment LLC, Indorama Ventures, Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Sumitomo Corporation, Taiwan Mobile, Unison Capital, the Asia Business Council, and the International Council on Mining and Metals.
Time for nature: Turning biodiversity risk into opportunity
Among the many challenges stemming from climate change: natural ecosystems and habitats are being destroyed.
Recognition of the link between business sustainability and a healthy, living planet has motivated businesses to incorporate nature into decision-making. But the private sector needs help – from policymakers, scientists, and communities – to measure impact and devise sustainable solutions.
On Wednesday, December 14, Tak Niinami, CEO, Suntory Holdings, will be joined by Eurasia Group & GZERO Media president Ian Bremmer, experts from Eurasia Group’s climate team, private and public leaders, scientists, and other experts on the world’s nature and biodiversity to address this challenge and chart a path towards reversing nature loss.
Please register to attend this GZERO Media livestream in partnership with Suntory Holdings on Wed, Dec. 14 at 8 am EST / 10 pm JST. All registrants will receive the livestream playback following the event.
The livestream is part of the Sustainability Leaders Council, in partnership with Suntory Holdings, Fubon Financial, Gund Investment LLC, Indorama Ventures, Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), Sumitomo Corporation, Taiwan Mobile, Unison Capital, the Asia Business Council, and the International Council on Mining and Metals.
Watch live October 19: Can access to digital tools transform the world's economy?
Is digitization crucial to economic growth? GZERO Media is partnering with Visa to explore what it means when 70% of the global economy’s growth in the next decade is projected to come from digitally-enabled businesses – yet 3.7 billion people lack internet access. What are the tools and initiatives needed to bring more people into the digital economy?
Live on Wednesday, October 19, our expert panel will explore the impact of digitization on empowering consumers and small businesses. Please register to attend.
Participants:
- JJ Ramberg, Co-Founder, Goodpods, and former host of MSNBC's Your Business (moderator)
- Usman Ahmed, Head of Global Public Affairs and Strategic Research at PayPal Inc.
- Dilip Ratha, Head of KNOMAD and Lead Economist at the World Bank
- Ruben Salazar, Global Head of Visa Direct
- Kati Suominen, Founder and CEO, Nextrade Group
- Ali Wyne, Senior Analyst, Global Macro-Geopolitics, Eurasia Group
Putin would rather die than admit defeat in Ukraine, says former Croatian president
Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović knows a thing or two about Vladimir Putin, who she met multiple times when she was Croatia's president. So, how does she see the future of Russia's war in Ukraine?
It's not looking good.
In a Global Stage livestream conversation held at United Nations headquarters, Grabar-Kitarović says that Putin is unlikely to back down from a "special military operation" driven by what the Russian leader sees as Western humiliation during the Cold War.
Although the war has weakened Russia's economy and military and made the country a junior partner to China, the former Croatian president thinks Putin “would rather die than admit defeat."
Since Ukraine will also not cede an inch of sovereign territory, Grabar-Kitarović believes the fighting will continue. And a ceasefire won't stop Putin from trying to realize his ultimate ambition of taking over all of Ukraine.
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