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A boy holds a sign reading "Calin Georgescu President" during an anti-government rally in Bucharest, Romania.
Romania’s leading presidential candidate appeals ban
Georgescuhas appealed his exclusion.
The background: Last year, Georgescu – a once-fringe figure – won the first round of the presidential election after an 11th-hour flood of TikTok videos boosted his views: He opposes NATO’s help for Ukraine and admires Romania’s 20th-century fascist leaders. Authorities blamed a Russian influence campaign, without providing clear evidence, and canceled the results.
Why it matters: Foreign policy is one area where Romania’s mostly ceremonial presidency has real power. Romania, a NATO member, borders Ukraine and is a key piece of the alliance’s support for Kyiv.
Georgescu’s ban drew sharp reactions. Hundreds of his supporters clashed with police in Bucharest, and even Georgescu’s main opponent, pro-NATO candidate Elena Lasconi, who called the election annulment “an affront to the very essence of democracy,” has spoken out against the ban.
What’s next: Romania’s Constitutional Court will rule on the appeal by Wednesday.
The bigger question: Is it OK for a democracy to ban a leading candidate in the name of … democracy?
A man gestures toward security forces during an anti-government rally in Bucharest, Romania, March 1, 2025.
Tumult as Romanians defend far-right leader
Tens of thousands of far-right demonstrators gathered in Bucharest on Saturday to protest the Romanian government’s decision to call off a second round of national elections, deeming it an assault on democracy. A rerun of the first round is now scheduled for May 4, but the protesters want the government to reinstate the original result and hold a run-off instead.
Why was the vote canceled? The Romanian courts annulled the pro-Russia, anti-vaccine populist Calin Georgescu’s first-round victory late last year over allegations of Russian interference. A month later, protesters took to the streets, and in February, US Vice President JD Vanceslammed the decision as anti-democratic during his contentious address at the Munich Security Conference.
Last Friday, Romania’s pro-European coalition government survived a vote of no confidence, after a trio of hard-right parties accused the coalition powers of corruption. Authorities had detained Georgescu on Wednesday – notably, as he was en route to register as a candidate again – and charged him with giving “false information, false statements,” setting up an organization with “fascist, racist, or xenophobic characteristics” and forming an antisemitic organization, among allegations.
What’s next? The dissent means that, as GZERO Media’s senior writer Willis Sparkswrote on Wednesday, the once-obscure Georgescu now “may not need alleged Russian backing to win” in May – should he remain on the ballot.Romanian far-right presidential election candidate Calin Georgescu delivers a press statement at the Bucharest Court of Appeal, in Bucharest, Romania, on Dec. 19, 2024.
What to do with Romania’s Georgescu?
Last November, a Romanian election generated shock headlines across Europe when an obscure pro-Russia, anti-vaccine populist named Călin Georgescu finished first in the initial round of voting. Authorities determined that his rise to sudden prominence was fueled by a well-financed, slickly produced campaign on social media platform TikTok – and they blamed the Russian government, so far without proof, for funding it.
The Romanian government then annulled the election result, drawing criticism from US Vice-President JD Vance during a controversial speech earlier this month on threats to democracy in Europe.
But Romanian authorities face a problem: They’ve annulled the election but haven’t yet found a way to annul Georgescu’s candidacy for the election re-run scheduled for May. Now that he is no longer obscure, he may not need alleged Russian backing to win.
On Wednesday, Georgescu was taken into custody by police as part of an investigation into possible violations of an anti-extremism law. His detention makes clear that over the next three months, Romania will be on the frontlines of the fight between hard-right populists and political establishments, many of them unpopular, across Europe.
Ten thousand protesters gather in front of Duesseldorf Central Station to march against the AfD's upcoming afternoon rally in Duesseldorf, Germany, on Feb. 15, 2025.
Viewpoint: Far right surges to prominence ahead of German elections
Amid a deep economic crisis and renewed migration concerns, the far-right party Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is poised to double its vote share in this weekend’s general elections. As a series of random attacks by Middle Eastern or Afghan migrants have increased the appeal of the party’s harsh anti-migration stance, its gains have caught the eye of officials in US President Donald Trump’s administration. In highly unusual interventions, presidential adviser Elon Musk has urged Germans to “move past” the guilt associated with World War II and vote for the extremist AfD, while Vice President JD Vance criticized the refusal of mainstream political leaders to work with the party.
Eurasia Group expert Jan Techau says the AfD has no path to government at present, but its increasing strength is transforming German politics. We sat down with him to learn more.
What are the main issues in these elections?
Two issues stand out. The first is the economy. With terms like “de-industrialization” being bandied around, this is no cyclical adjustment but a profound economic crisis caused by a decline in productivity, high energy prices, and high taxation. Every single party has acknowledged this, even the ones that don’t typically run on economic platforms. The second is migration, which had faded into the background a little, but has been revived in the last couple of months by a series of horrific incidents. In the last one, a rejected Afghan asylum seeker, who, for whatever reason still had a residence permit, drove a car into a crowd.
The war in Ukraine also preoccupies voters, but to a lesser extent at present. The issue is expected to gain prominence during the government formation talks after the elections, especially given US President Donald Trump’s recent outreach to Russia’s Vladimir Putin to start ceasefire talks.
What has been the impact of Vance’s and Musk’s interventions in favor of the AfD?
The AfD’s strong polling is mainly the result of the recent attacks that have stoked concerns over uncontrolled migration, not these interventions by external players. Still, their comments help the AfD by normalizing it and giving it more visibility and air time. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference sent a clear signal to the foreign policy establishment assembled there: The new US government seeks friendship with far-right nationalists in Europe and considers them its real allies. This has not yet translated into better polling for the AfD but has clearly strengthened its confidence.
How do you expect the AfD to perform in the elections?
The party appears on track to win 21% or 22% of the vote, doubling its share from the last elections and finishing second behind the center-right Christian Democrats, or CDU, which is polling at about 30%. The AfD won’t be able to enter government given the aversion of mainstream parties to working with it, but it will lead the opposition, allowing it to partially set the agenda from the political fringes. The AfD’s strategy will be to adopt an obstructionist stance to make the government look bad and improve the party’s position even further ahead of the 2029 elections.
The CDU recently took a risk by accepting AdF support for a proposed bill of harsh migration measures, which was rejected by parliament. Does that mean the gambit failed?
I think it's too early to make a final judgment on whether this move was strategically successful. The aim was to create more space for centrist parties to advance stricter migration policies without being accused of pandering to the far right. What we can say is that the move has not affected the CDU’s comfortable lead in the polls despite the harsh criticism received from other mainstream parties. So, we’ll see if the next government, which the CDU is expected to lead, can advance stricter migration policies. It's interesting to note that the Christian Democrats are one of the few center-right parties that remain competitive in Europe. In most other countries they have been eclipsed by formations advocating more radical policies on migration. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is trying to avoid this fate.
So, do you expect the CDU to rule in coalition with other parties, and if so, what does that mean for governance?
Yes, we expect the CDU to form a coalition with the Social Democrats and, if necessary, another party as well. Single-party majorities or minority governments are very uncommon in the German system. Of course, coalition means compromise, which could lead to an indecisive reform agenda that is not sufficient to address the issues we see at the moment. But maybe this time will be different and the mainstream parties can rise to the occasion. They know that the AfD is waiting in the wings and eager to capitalize on any governmental dysfunction in the 2029 elections.
When will we get some indication about the cohesion and strength of the next government?
The post-election coalition talks that will start shortly after the elections will give us an idea about what the next government wants to do and what – beyond the parties’ campaign rhetoric – is really possible. The war in Ukraine will also start to have an impact at this point, as the new government will have to contemplate the policy implications of Trump’s push to broker a cease-fire and get European countries to assume more responsibility for Ukraine’s security. The German mindset is very domestically focused, and the government will very likely be faced early on with requests to shoulder a massive new military exposure.
Edited by Jonathan House, senior editor at Eurasia Group.
Spanish Vox party leader Santiago Abascal presided over the European Patriots Summit in Madrid over the weekend. The event brought together numerous conservative leaders from across Europe under the banner of "Make Europe Great Again."
From MAGA to MEGA? Europe’s far-right rallies in Madrid
Who are the Patriots and what do they want? Formed after the May 2024 European election, the bloc includes 86 members from 14 countries, representing 19 million votes. It is the third largest group in the 720-seat European Parliament, and it opposes green policies, migration, gender and family diversity, and “population replacement.” It wants to change the EU’s governance structure to one based on national sovereignty and boost Europe's economic competitiveness.
Could the Patriots make it happen? Other right-wing parties, including Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia, or FI, Poland’s Law and Justice, and the German AfD have so far refused to join. However, in a letter sent in late January, the European Conservatives and Reformists group, home to Italian Prime Minister and FI leader Giorgia Meloni, urged the center-right European People’s Party to ally with the Patriots. And as tariffs loom, Le Pen claims that the group is the only one that can “talk with the new Trump administration.”
We’ll be watching whether the AfD or other parties change their tune about joining the Patriots – and how this impacts the EU’s ability to negotiate with Trump.Alice Weidel, AfD national chairman, waits on the sidelines of her party's national convention for a TV interview to begin. The AfD wants to adopt its election program in Riesa.
What is “remigration” and why is the German far right calling for it?
European media is abuzz with a new term embraced by Alternative for Germany, or AfD, party chair Alice Weidel during her disturbing speech at the far-right party’s leadership conference on Saturday: “remigration.” AfD has surged to second place in national polls ahead of Germany’s Feb. 23 election – following four years of anemic growth and ineffective government. The party has also enjoyed support from American right-wingers like Elon Musk, who streamed Weidel’s speech on his social media.
What is “remigration”? A term popularized in the German-speaking world by Austrian neo-Nazi Martin Sellner, it refers to forcibly removing immigrants who refuse to integrate with German culture, regardless of their citizenship status. In other words, a German of Turkish or Syrian descent, born and raised in the country, could be expelled, though just how the scheme would work is not clear.
Eagle-eyed readers will recognize this as ethnic cleansing in a fancy dress, and given Weidel’s attempts to portray herself as electable, her embrace of the term is striking. She may have felt emboldened by the AfD’s state-level victories in September in Thuringia, where reactionary Björn Höcke ran the show. Notably, Weidel’s crowds have taken to chanting “Alice für Deutschland!” — a deliberate homophone of the banned Nazi slogan “Alles für Deutschland!”
Will AfD take power? Probably not — they’re 10 percentage points behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union, and they are reviled by all other parties. But given how strongly the far right is performing in Europe, the party’s agenda can push political discourse further to the right. In addition to remigration, Weidel wants to close Germany’s borders, quit using the Euro, and start buying Russian gas.
Even if the AfD loses, it will have its largest-ever voice in the Bundestag. The CDU will need a coalition, but negotiations with the next largest parties are likely to be fraught. We’re watching for extended gridlock in Berlin.
France National Front presidential candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen addresses a political rally in Lille on Feb. 25, 2007.
Father of the French far right dies
Jean-Marie Le Pen, whose ultranationalist and conservative views enraged millions but also shaped the contemporary French political scene, died on Tuesday at 96.
Le Pen was a far-right fixture of French politics for nearly five decades as a legislator in the French and European parliaments, and as founder and leader of the National Front party, which he founded in the early 1970s.
What were his politics? A theatrical orator and a fierce opponent of immigration – he sought the “purification” of France and a return to traditional Catholic values – Le Pen’s rhetoric often veered towards xenophobia, homophobia, racism, and antisemitism. At least half a dozen times he was convicted of either inciting racial hatred or denying the Holocaust.
And yet, beginning in the 1970s, he, along with anti-tax advocate Pierre Poujade, amassed a dedicated following among a slice of the French public who resented the governing elite, struggled with economic hardship, and viewed immigration from France’s former colonies in Africa and the Middle East as a threat to their livelihoods and French culture.
Le Pen ran for the presidency five times. He never won but he came closest to the prize in 2002, when he made it to a runoff against Jacques Chirac, taking nearly 20% of the vote.
Ultimately, his more extreme rhetoric came to cap the appeal of his party. When his daughter, Marine, inherited the organization from him 15 years ago, it was something she sought to address.
“He gave her a family business,” says Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at Eurasia Group. “But she had to change the brand.”
While she kept the focus on limiting immigration and protecting French cultural values, she distanced herself from his antisemitic and homophobic rhetoric, expelling him from the party, and changing the name to National Rally.
The party has surged in popularity in recent years. Politics in France – as elsewhere in Europe and the US – have shifted rightward in ways that were hard to imagine even during the height of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s polarizing influence in the early 2000s.
In 2022, Marine got more than 40% of the vote in the presidential runoff against Emmanuel Macron. And last summer, National Rally won the first round of France’s snap elections outright for the first time.
Le Pen’s legacy continues to polarize French politics. Far-right TV host and former presidential candidate Eric Zemmoursaid Le Pen “was among the first to alert France to the existential threats that awaited it.” Far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, meanwhile, said that “the fight against the man is over” but that “the fight against the hatred, racism, Islamophobia and anti-Semitism that he spread continues.” Macron, for his part, said Le Pen’s legacy “is now a matter for history to judge."Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen delivers a statement in Vienna, Austria, January 5, 2025.
Austria’s far right takes its first shot at government since World War II
Austria’s president asked the far-right, pro-Russia Freedom Party to form a government on Monday after talks between the traditional right and left parties collapsed over the weekend. The Freedom Party’s leader, Herbert Kickl, said he would begin negotiations with the center-right Austrian People’s Party, which had previously balked at playing second fiddle. The two parties are expected to be able to form a government now that former Chancellor Karl Nehammer from the Austrian People’s Party has stepped down.
The Freedom Party traces its roots to a former Nazi SS officer and politician, and like its peer far-right parties in Germany, France, and Italy, was heavily ostracized in the past. Now, Austria looks likely to join Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia as part of a growing bloc within the EU ruled by populist rightwingers.
How would a far-right government change Austria? On a policy level, Vienna is already quite conservative, advocating hardline migration and fiscal measures for the EU. Austria will also likely continue trying to exploit sanction loopholes with Russia, but not totally undermine them, says Eurasia Group’s Jan Techau.
“There are also fears of Orbanization in Austria as the far-right people are very ardent culture warriors,” says Techau, referring to the weakening of democratic institutions under Prime Minister Viktor Orban in neighboring Hungary. “We are not sure how far this can go. Austria is not Hungary, it’s a federal system, not a centralized state, and political and civil society pushback can be expected.”
We’re watching what the Freedom Party’s success might say about the rise of the far right in EU anchor states France and Germany this year.