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Supporters and armed members of the Fatah movement protest against the Palestinian Hamas government during a rally in Jabalya camp September 22, 2006.
Palestinian factions talk peace in Beijing
With the US still trying, in vain, to negotiate a cease-fire in Gaza, China stepped into the fray with some olive branches of its own this week, hosting Fatah and Hamas, the rival Palestinian factions, for reconciliation talks in Beijing.
The backdrop: The secular nationalists of Fatah, who recognize Israel, and the Islamists of Hamas, who don’t, have long vied for control of the Palestinian movement. After Hamas won the 2006 elections, a brief civil war left Hamas in control of Gaza and Fatah running the West Bank.
What’s China’s angle? Beijing, already a global economic power, wants to cut a larger figure in diplomacy, cultivating an image as a more honest broker than the US, with closer ties to the so-called “Global South.” Last year, for example, Beijing delivered a détente between bitter enemies Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Not so fast. China is looking to foster intra-Palestinian accords here, not a broader peace deal. And it may be that Beijing is, for now, perfectly happy to see the US tied down by the Gaza war anyway.
But by creating conditions for a smaller resolution within Palestine, Beijing could be eyeing a larger role down the road.
FILE PHOTO: Fatah and Hamas officials wait for a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and representatives of Palestinian groups and movements as a part of an intra-Palestinian talks in Moscow, Russia February 12, 2019.
Rival Palestinian factions try to make nice in Moscow
Hamas and Fatah, rival Palestinian factions with a bloody history, were in Moscow on Thursday for reconciliation talks.
Why is this significant? The jihadists of Hamas and the secular nationalists of Fatah are Palestine’s most powerful factions. They fought a war in 2007 that left Hamas in control of Gaza and Fatah running the occupied West Bank. Reconciliation would be crucial for establishing any stable Palestinian state in the future.
Not everyone is a fan. Even if Hamas and Fatah can make doves cry, it’s difficult to see Israel or the US singing along. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is dead-set on destroying Hamas which, unlike Fatah, refuses to recognize Israel’s existence.
But polls show Hamas is popular among Palestinians, partly because Fatah’s accommodationist stance is seen as a failure. Unless Netanyahu can destroy the group entirely, a tall order, any plans for post-war governance in Gaza – to say nothing of a Palestinian state some day – will require some blessing or buy-in from Hamas.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. That “post-war” is as far off as ever. US President Joe Biden on Thursday walked back his earlier optimism about an imminent ceasefire.Palestinians inspect a house hit by an Israeli strike, in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip February 16, 2024.
Israel sets hostage deadline, Palestinians go to Moscow
Israel has issued a firm deadline for the release of its remaining hostages: March 10, the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
If the deadline for their release is not met, former defense minister and current war cabinet member Benny Gantz on Sunday said Israel would launch a ground invasion of Rafah, escalating from bombings and raids. Gantz promised that Israel would ensure civilian evacuations in coordination with the US and Egypt to minimize casualties.
Meanwhile, rival Palestinian factions are gearing up for a meeting in Moscow to rework Gaza's governance. Western leaders have roundly rejected Hamas participation in any future scenario, so Russian mediation is the most promising path from the Palestinian perspective, and Russia has delicate interests to balance in the region.
Palestinian Authority prime minister Mohammad Shtayyehconfirmed Russia will host the talks February 26. “If Hamas is ready to come to the ground with us, we are ready to engage. If Hamas is not… that is a different story. But we need Palestinian unity.”
That unity would require Hamas to accept the political platform of the PLO, including recognizing Israel, a position Hamas currently rejects.
Hamas would like discussions to focus on rebuilding the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and establishing a technocratic government until elections are held. It would also like Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas to resign.
International response to date has been skeptical. French officials oppose any involvement by Hamas in its current form, while the UK would like to dismantle Hamas's military, exile its leadership, and establish a technocratic, demilitarized authority to oversee elections, to eliminate threats to Israel.Visitors look at Chinese Air Force fighter jets at a military base in Hangzhou.
What We’re Watching: China targets Taiwan, Palestinian election heats up, Russia-Ukraine border tensions
Chinese jets swarm Taiwan: This week, multiple Chinese warplanes penetrated Taiwan's airspace. While Beijing does this quite often to flex its muscles, this time the jets took a different route, and one even got close to the Japanese island of Yonaguni, located less than 70 miles (113 kilometers) north of Taiwan. The maneuvers have been interpreted by experts as a direct warning from the Chinese to Japan not to overplay its hand. (It's worth noting that Tokyo could get dragged into a US conflict with China over Taiwan because, like Taiwan, it has a mutual defense treaty with the US.) More broadly, the flight patterns also indicate that China could surround Taiwan on three sides in an eventual invasion, cutting off the territory from US and Japanese military support. All this comes as the Biden administration has expressed serious concern (paywall) that Beijing is indeed planning to invade Taiwan in the very near term. With US-China relations getting hot, more rumblings over an invasion of Taiwan will surely turn the temperature even higher.
Palestinians' election shake-up: Next month, the Palestinian Authority will hold its first elections since 2006 — and things have started to get very interesting. Palestinian militant Marwan Barghouti, a longtime PA member who is serving multiple life sentences for murdering Israelis, plans to challenge longtime leader Mahmoud Abbas for the presidency. Abbas — who at 85 has led the Fatah-controlled Palestinian Authority for 16 years and postponed elections in the past for fear of losing — is now facing formidable opposition from two former Fatah veterans: Barghouti, who is extremely popular with Palestinian voters, and Mahmoud Dahlan, a former PA security chief who was exiled after a fierce dispute with the current leadership (Dahlan has been banned from running, but says he will persevere). While Barghouti is doing well in the polls, analysts say that his split with Abbas could help the rival Hamas militant group, which rules the Gaza Strip with an iron fist. Legislative elections are currently scheduled for May 22 and presidential polls for July 31. When elections were last held, a PA-Hamas dispute turned bloody, resulting in an enduring split in Palestinian leadership. What will happen this time?
Russian troops on Ukraine's doorstep: As fighting surged between Russian-backed separatists and government forces in eastern Ukraine this week, Moscow deployed several thousand of its own troops to the Ukrainian border, raising fears that the low-level conflict could get much uglier. The uptick in violence leaves a ceasefire from last summer in tatters. It's now been seven years since Ukrainian protesters ousted a pro-Moscow president, leading Russia to annex Crimea and foment a civil war that brought pro-Moscow separatists to power in two Ukrainian provinces along the Russian border. Peace talks between the two sides have repeatedly broken down over the question of who should do what first: Ukraine wants control over its border, while Russia wants Kyiv to devolve significant power to the separatists and legitimize them with elections. The Russians say their recent troop movements are nothing to worry about and no one else's business, but the Pentagon now considers the uptick in violence an "imminent crisis."