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Handout photo dated January 26, 2023 shows Air Force 33rd Search and Rescue Squadron preparing to land aboard an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold (DDG 65) in the Philippine Sea.
After China pretends to invade Taiwan, US & Philippines rehearse war against ... China
The US and the Philippines have held annual Balikatan (shoulder to shoulder) joint military drills since 1991. But this year's exercise is a bigger deal than usual.
For one thing, the drills — which kicked off Tuesday — involve more than 17,000 troops from the two countries, making them the largest ever. For another, they are partly being held in disputed waters in the South China Sea — claimed almost entirely by Beijing and partly by Manila.
More importantly, the war games come on the heels of China's own military muscle-flexing near Taiwan,rehearsing an invasion of the self-ruled island as payback for Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's hangout with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
For the US — which rejects Beijing’s expanded maritime sovereignty — the drills aim to send China a clear message: We will defend our allies as you move to militarize the South China Sea.
What’s more, Uncle Sam wants the region to remain free for navigation and seaborne trade. That’s why the US Navy patrols the disputed waters despite the risk of running into Chinese “research” vessels.
But for China, the exercises are proof that the Americans are pushing the Filipinos to help them contain Chinese military power in the region. (For the first time, this year’s war games feature target practice on a mock fishing boat, Beijing’s shadow navy of "little blue men" in the disputed waters.)
The odd man out is the Philippines, once again left walking a tightrope between the US and China.
Since his May 2022 election, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — having seen the writing on the wall of rising anti-China sentiment among Filipinos under Rodrigo Duterte, his pro-China predecessor — has been inching closer to Washington. One important recent gesture was granting the US military access to army camps in the northern part of the archipelago, very close to Taiwan.
Yet, Marcos previously made a much-publicized visit to China, the Philippines’ top trading partner and source of foreign investment. The upshot is that with a weak economy and an even weaker military, the country can't afford to lose either the US security umbrella or the ability to do biz with China.
Meanwhile, the South China Sea remains a flashpoint for great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific. And growing US-China tensions over Taiwan will only raise the stakes in the future.
Marcos attends a news conference at his headquarters in Manila.
What We're Watching: Marcos inauguration, Indian religious tensions, risotto shortage
Will Marcos 2.0 be kind to the Philippine media?
Weeks after winning the election in a landslide, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (aka Bongbong, or more recently BBM) will be inaugurated on Thursday as president of the Philippines. He has a lot on his plate, including uniting — as he promised repeatedly during the campaign — a country deeply divided over the legacy of his father, the late dictator. One issue that'll surely pop up soon is how he'll handle the media, which was heavily censored under the elder Marcos’ martial law. On Tuesday, the Philippine SEC ordered the shutdown of Rappler, the news site run by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, a vocal critic of outgoing strongman President Rodrigo Duterte. BBM will also face pressure to return a broadcast franchise to ABS-CBN, the country's biggest network, which Duterte canceled in early 2020 (and Marcos' dad also took off the air entirely in the 1980s). Supporters say Marcos 2.0 wants to kick off his presidency with a charm offensive to appease his enemies, but he may have more of a problem with his most powerful friend. Overturning two of Duterte's most controversial decisions would not go down well with the famously pugnacious outgoing leader — whose feisty daughter is … Marcos’s VP.
Religious tensions put Indian state on high alert
Authorities in Udaipur — the capital of Rajasthan, India's largest state — have cut off the internet and banned large gatherings amid fresh religious tensions over the murder of a Hindu man by two Muslims. The suspects — now in custody — recorded the violence and posted it online, claiming they were justified because the victim had voiced support for two now-suspended officials from the ruling Hindu nationalist BJP party who made controversial comments about the Prophet Mohammed a month ago. The comments sparked violent protests throughout India, as well as a diplomatic kerfuffle with the Islamic world, yet PM Narendra Modi has rebuffed calls for an apology. (In another video, the assailants of the Hindu man’s murder appear to threaten Modi with cleavers.) Religious tensions are common in majority-Hindu India, so what's different now? First, attacks by Muslims against Hindus are rare and will surely inflame the latter; second, the clip is still going viral among Hindu nationalists outside Udaipur — upping the odds of further violence that could spread. In case you're wondering, the state is governed by the opposition Congress Party, always eager to score political points by blaming the crisis on the BJP.
Risotto lovers may want to stock up
Arborio rice — the type used to make beloved Italian risotto — has hit hard times due to a lack of rain as Italy faces its worst drought in over 70 years. This year’s rice fields in the Po River valley are too dry to harvest. But Italy is far from the only place suffering. In Mexico, extreme weather – from droughts to heavy storms to flooding – is disrupting the production of its famed chili peppers. In France and Canada, meanwhile, storms and rain pushed seed production down by 50% this past year, impacting condiment availability. While arborio rice, peppers, and seeds are being hurt by weather patterns, other countries are struggling with hunger pains as a result of the Russian invasion. Curiously, on the other side of the globe, Asia’s greatest source of resilience to the Ukraine wheat crisis has been its rice production. This is a relief, seeing as South, Southeast, and East Asia are responsible for the world’s production and consumption of 80% of the world’s rice. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned of the risk of several famines being declared this year – and with the war raging on, fears things could grow even worse for food production in 2023.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s win, corruption and kleptocracy in the Philippines
With Marcos Jr. about to win the presidency, how will his leadership change the Philippines? Sri Lanka's prime minister resigned. Will its president be next? Is Sinn Féin's victory a sign that a united Ireland is closer? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Marcos Jr. about to win the presidency, how will his leadership change the Philippines?
Well, it was a big win, almost 30 points over his opponent, and the first time we've seen an absolute majority in Philippines history for the presidency. Not huge changes expected in governance. Let's keep in mind that the vice president is actually the daughter of President Duterte, who's just leaving power. The president and the vice presidents here are actually... Those elections are held separately, and so you can have different parties that actually win, and frequently do, which is sort of an unusual twist to the Philippines. Pro-foreign direct investment, generally pro-markets, a little bit more of a US and Western tilt as opposed to Duterte, whose military really was skeptical of China, but he personally was more engaged with Beijing. The big question is what's the cabinet going to look like, how independent, how technocratic, or is there going to be a lot of corruption, a lot of kleptocracy? Keeping in mind that Bongbong, the new president, is the son of Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos, who were drummed out for an extraordinary abuse of power in the Philippines before. So what everyone's going to be watching.
Sri Lanka's prime minister resigned. Will its president be next?
Well, I mean, since we're talking about kleptocracy, let's keep in mind that the president is the younger brother of the now resigned prime minister, and they've let go a bunch of... You've got the ministers of finance that have been sort of a revolving door recently. This is the worst economic crisis of Sri Lanka's history. And it's led to a lot of demonstrations, mass protests, a lot of violence, and that's why the PM is gone. But there's also a state of emergency. The military, the police are out in force, the president clearly trying his damnedest to avoid having to step down. And the real question is going to be how explosive the situation on the ground is. Could this become sort of a mass-driven coup, and might you see some splits in the military as a consequence of that?
Is Sinn Féin's victory a sign that a united Ireland is closer?
Well, yeah, of course it's closer in the sense that you now have a party, a Catholic party, that's won for the first time, more history, in Northern Ireland that is interested in a unionist position on Ireland. And Brexit of course did set this off, but a strong majority of citizens in Northern Ireland do not support even a referendum on unification, and certainly don't support unification, though Sinn Féin has said that they'd like to have such a vote within five years. More importantly is that this is going to be used, the Sinn Féin victory, by Boris Johnson and his Tory government to push for changing the rules agreed with the European Union in the breakup, on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, Northern Ireland and Europe. And that has the potential to really disrupt, further disrupt, UK-EU trade over the course of the next 12 months. So in the near-term, that's the problem. In the long-term, no question there's more pressure on political devolution and disillusion in the not so United Kingdom.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during a campaign rally.
How will Marcos 2.0 rule the Philippines?
The Marcoses are back in power in the Philippines.
What seemed unthinkable just months ago became reality on Monday. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late dictator, is on the cusp of winning the presidential election by a landslide. What's more, he's the first candidate to get more than 50% of the vote in the single-round race since his family was chased out of power in 1986.
This decisive triumph is the culmination of a decades-long quest by the most famous and polarizing dynasty in modern Philippine politics to restore its legacy and return to Malacañang Palace. But will Marcos govern like his autocrat dad or deliver on his vague promise of "unity" to appease Filipinos with bitter memories of his father’s iron-fisted rule and kleptocracy?
A second Marcos presidency will put the country’s democracy on life support, argues Aries Arugay, professor of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman.
"Philippine democracy has been rapidly eroding under [current President Rodrigo] Duterte by all metrics," says Arugay. He doesn’t believe the democratic system will collapse under Marcos but rather move toward "the most minimal procedural definition of democracy” — elections that can easily be manipulated by the state.
In any case, Arugay expects the broader illiberal trend to continue. It’s only a matter of time, he fears, before Marcos resorts to populist-authoritarian strategies to consolidate power — such as removing presidential term limits — because winning an absolute majority gives him a blank check.
But maybe Marcos will be the unifier he claims to be, says Antonio Contreras, professor of political science at De La Salle University and a Marcos supporter. Marcos, he argues, will show Filipinos he can succeed where previous presidents failed by charming his critics.
"He's not going to be confrontational," explains Contreras. "He's going to try to do a lot of diplomacy by talking to people who are against him” — including those who remain suspicious of his motives because “they cannot separate the son from the father."
Still, Marcos’ wide margin of victory suggests that many Filipinos are nostalgic about the strongman rule of his dad, which may have prompted them to vote for Duterte six years ago.
"There is still that memory, that longing, that nostalgia," says Contreras. Post-1986 democracy, he points out, has failed to deliver in the eyes of many Filipinos because it neither transformed society nor proved to be any better than the “old regime.”
Indeed, the Marcos campaign has successfully pushed the "golden era" narrative on social media. His army of bots targeted Gen-Z'ers with viral disinformation videos on TikTok, and the strategy worked: the 64-year-old's "base" is Filipinos under 40, which account for more than half the electorate.
Once he takes over, Arugay expects Marcos to follow in Duterte's footsteps by weaponizing social media to keep cultivating his image and protect his regime against critics.
"Given the pernicious polarization the country is in right now, this disinformation network is needed to rally the troops, target enemies, and hide the possible incompetence and mismanagement of his government," he says. "It’ll be a lean and mean propaganda-spewing machine."
One area where Marcos would be wise to follow his dad's playbook is foreign policy. The elder Marcos was a master at leveraging the Philippines' strategic value for the US war in Vietnam to get things from Washington, which supported him almost until the end and granted his family exile in Hawaii.
Now, his son faces a similar challenge with his country caught in the crossfire of the US-China rivalry.
"It's going to be a balancing act," says Contreras. While the Philippines has a longstanding relationship with the US, Duterte moved the country closer to China, and Beijing is eager to retain influence over Manila due to its interest in the disputed South China Sea. It would thus be "suicidal" for Marcos to “put all his eggs in one basket” like Duterte did with China.
Arugay agrees. If he's well-advised, Marcos will hedge on US-China like (most of) his predecessors did. But if the Americans push him too hard, he might double down on Duterte's approach and embrace China more — which a majority of Filipinos will surely resent.What We're Watching: Filipinos vote, Taliban vs Afghan women
Is the Philippines ready for Marcos 2.0?
Filipinos go to the polls Monday to vote in perhaps the most consequential and polarizing presidential election in recent memory. The clear frontrunner is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son and namesake of the late dictator. Marcos is leading the polls by a 30-point margin over Vice President Leni Robredo, who has campaigned on a message of good governance to contrast with the kleptocracy associated with the 21-year rule of the senior Marcos. Despite her long odds, Robredo supporters hope that their candidate's late surge in popularity and possibly lower-than-expected turnout could turn the tide in their favor. Marcos, meanwhile, is confident of a victory that'll return his family to Malacañang Palace 36 years after his dad and shoe-loving mom Imelda were chased out of power and into exile in Hawaii. His election would be yet another triumph for political dynasties, which have tightened their long-held grip on Philippine politics in recent years (Marcos' running mate for VP is none other than the daughter of outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte). Though his victory seems inevitable, will Marcos' many critics accept the result?
Another ban by the Taliban
On Saturday, the Taliban issued yet another decree in contravention of their promise to protect women’s rights in Afghanistan. The detailed order told women they should only leave their homes when necessary and be fully veiled in a hijab in public (they recommend the Afghan burqa as the "best hijab"). Failure to comply will result in male relatives being prosecuted, fined, imprisoned, or sacked from their jobs. The decree is consistent with the Taliban’s rollback of women's rights since they swept back to power in August 2021. So far, they've banned women from attending secondary school, protesting, traveling alone, and working in any sectors other than health and education. While those familiar with life under the previous Taliban regime (1996-2001) will not find these measures out of line with the Taliban's worldview, such policies will only further isolate the regime internationally. Not a single country — not even longtime supporter Pakistan — recognizes the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, a country that's failing to contain a humanitarian crisis, battling an economic free-fall, and struggling with attacks from the even more radical ISIS-K.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers a speech during a campaign rally.
Dynasty + disinformation = Philippine democracy
The Philippine presidential election is a week away, and two uncomfortable characteristics of modern democracy in the country — dynasty and disinformation — are expected to shape the result.
Leading the polls by a wide margin is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the son of the late dictator. The elder Marcos ruled the Philippines for 21 years, including eight years under martial law, before he was overthrown in 1986 by the so-called “People Power” uprising against his kleptocracy.
Two scions team up. Marcos has partnered with VP hopeful Sara Duterte, daughter of the outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, who was ahead of her running mate in the surveys before she opted to run for the second-highest office instead. Although she has maintained a distance from her father, the Marcos-Duterte combination is a potent one that spans the country’s geography and demography, allying the northern districts loyal to Marcos with the deep south, where the Dutertes are most powerful.
Both have enjoyed the privilege of power under their respective fathers’ rules. Marcos entered politics as a vice governor in 1981, when his dad was still in power, and until recently Duterte was mayor of her hometown of Davao City, her father’s old job.
All in the family. Dynasties, a longtime staple of Philippine politics, have tightened their grip on power in recent years. Research by online news site Rappler shows that so-called "fat" dynasties – where several members simultaneously hold elected posts — now occupy 29% of local offices, 80% of governorships, and two-thirds of seats in Congress.
To prove the point, Duterte’s two sons are eyeing congressional and mayoral seats in the upcoming elections, and Marcos’ son is also being prepped as an heir-apparent.
Laws that are supposed to curb the influence of political families don't work — hardly surprising given that they've been passed by politicians who themselves belong to dynasties. For instance, many posts are limited to three consecutive terms, but the trick is to get a spouse or child to keep the seat warm for one term, and then run again.
Still, being a Marcos also comes with serious baggage because it’s perhaps the most polarizing name in Philippine politics.
Marcos’ ascent is a divisive subject and opens up the wounds of the past. However, where some see the entrenched power of dynastic politics and patronage, propelled by a slick PR campaign that has done a remarkable job of whitewashing the family’s sins, a new generation sees vindication.
Indeed, Marcos has found his edge in demographics. The majority of Filipinos who’ll vote for president on May 9 are under 30 years old. They didn’t grow up under his father’s martial law regime, under which 70,000 people were detained, 34,000 tortured, and over 3,000 killed.
The younger Marcos’ carefully crafted rise to presidential frontrunner status is the culmination of a years-long, sophisticated social media disinformation strategy pushing his father’s rule as a golden era. He’s also been careful to avoid debates so he doesn’t have to talk about what his family did, and he lets big-name local politicians campaign on his behalf.
Meanwhile, his main rival, Vice President Leni Robredo, has been the target of a constant barrage of online disinformation, much of it about her and her family’s sex lives, by pro-Marcos supporters.
When the likes of Facebook, Twitter and Wikipedia have taken action against his trolls, bots, spam and manipulation, and even the powerful Catholic Church rejected the online “historical revisionism,” the Marcos campaign responded by pivoting to newer platforms like TikTok to appeal to the Philippines’ massive vote bank of Gen-Z’ers, converting teenagers and influencers who are far removed from the trauma of martial law to sympathize with the Marcos dynasty.
Can anyone beat the dynamic dynastic duo? Of the other candidates, the only one with a shot — albeit a long one — at being a spoiler for the Marcos-Duterte ticket is Robredo, also the lone female presidential candidate.
Robredo, who beat Marcos for VP in 2016, has carved out a reputation as a fierce critic of Duterte's strong-arm tactics. Although she trails Marcos by double digits, her campaign is experiencing a late surge in numbers attending her vibrant, proudly feminist rallies in a political culture that’s as misogynistic as it is dynastic.The other big elections of 2022
A few days ago we previewed five major elections to watch in 2022. Here are some others we'll be paying close attention to in the months ahead.
South Korea (March). South Korean voters will choose between two very different options to replace Moon Jae-in, the term-limited incumbent. The candidate from the ruling center-left party is Lee Jae-myung, a former civil rights lawyer and governor known as the South Korean Bernie Sanders because he backs a universal basic income. Lee’s rival and center-right hopeful is Yoon Seok-youl, a former prosecutor who helped convict former president Park Geun-hye of abuse of power in 2016.
On foreign policy, Lee wants warmer ties with China, more control over US forces in South Korea, and to play nice with North Korea. For his part, Yoon wants to push back more against China, bolster the US alliance, and deploy US tactical nukes on South Korean soil to deter Pyongyang. Yoon is ahead in the polls, yet not by much. Lee is more experienced and popular with young voters, who could decide the outcome if they turn up in high numbers.
Australia (by May 21). Australians will go to the polls before the end of May. It's a legislative election, so the party that gets a majority of seats in parliament will pick the next prime minister. The approval rating of the current PM, Scott Morrison of the right-leaning Liberal Coalition, is now at its lowest in 18 months due to frustration over one of the world's longest and strictest pandemic lockdowns, which has pummeled Aussie businesses.
Still, the Coalition remains neck-and-neck in the polls with the opposition Labor Party, struggling to capitalize on Morrison's unpopularity. The main campaign issues will likely be climate, but perhaps more COVID and the economy. On foreign policy, both parties want to maintain close ties with the US, support the AUKUS regional military alliance, and have similar views on China — although Labor doesn't want Australia to be in complete lockstep with America as it says Canberra has been under Morrison.
The Philippines (May). Philippine elections have always been deeply polarizing, and next year's will be no different. The current frontrunner in the race to succeed term-limited President Rodrigo Duterte is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the late dictator. Marcos, a staunch Duterte ally, has the president's daughter as his running mate, and right now more than half of Filipinos would vote for him.
But Marcos is reviled by other Filipinos, who remember how his strongman dad embezzled up to $10 billion in his 21 years in power (which the Marcoses deny). With boxer-turned senator Manny Pacquiao polling in the single digits, the anti-Duterte and anti-Marcos opposition has pinned all its hopes on VP Leni Robredo, who beat Marcos in the 2016 Veep contest but at the moment is a long shot.
Kenya (August). Although President Uhuru Kenyatta cannot run for a third term, he will loom large over the 2022 election. Last May, the country's top court junked Kenyatta's planned constitutional referendum in order to make Kenyan politics less tribal in exchange for more executive power. The verdict was a big win for William Ruto, Kenyatta's deputy and current presidential frontrunner.
Ruto — the first candidate not from a political family with a shot at winning the top job — is leading the polls over Raila Odinga, the scion of a prominent dynasty and Kenyatta’s former enemy turned ally. Promising to fight both wealth inequality and political dynasties, the president’s number two styles himself as a "hustler" to appeal to the three-quarters of Kenyans aged between 18 and 35. But he needs to get young people to actually show up at the ballot box, and so far the ongoing registration drive isn’t going well.A woman holds a placard during a protest following the vice presidential bid of Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, daughter of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, for the 2022 national elections, at the Commission of Human Rights, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, November 14, 2021.
Philippine presidential election: “All in the family”
Philippine elections have always been, Filipinos will candidly admit, a bit of a circus. Come campaign season, politicians fan out across the country, showing off their best tricks to lure voters into giving them their support.
So, what does it take to get elected president? Not coherent programs to cut widespread poverty and rampant corruption. Everyone knows those promises will surely not be kept.
The holy grail of Philippine politics is name recognition. Yet it's not enough to simply be famous. The golden ticket is to belong to a well-known political family.
Even better, join forces with another powerful dynasty — which is exactly what the two biggest names in Philippine politics today have done to win the May 2022 presidential election.
One half of that duo is Ferdinand Marcos Jr. If that name rings a bell it's because he's the son of the late dictator who ruled the Philippines with an iron fist for 21 years. The elder Marcos and his famously shoe-obsessed wife Imelda are believed to have plundered as much as $10 billion from the state's coffers before they were chased out of office — and the country — by the "People Power" revolution of 1986.
Aries Arugay, professor of political science at the University of the Philippines-Diliman, says that Marcos' presidential bid is the culmination of a decades-long quest by his family to regain power after narrowly losing the VP race in 2016.
The other half is none other than VP pick Sara Duterte. If that name rings a bell it's because she's the daughter of Rodrigo, the current president with aspiring dictator vibes of his own.
The Duterte scion has followed her dad's 2016 election playbook to a tee: tease a run for president, turn it down to remain mayor of your hometown, and finally change your mind at the eleventh hour to file your candidacy "reluctantly" because you just can't disappoint your fans. And don't forget to throw in some family drama too.
Right now, the Marcos-Duterte tandem looks like it could easily run away with the election. With the president's daughter by his side, Marcos is now the clear frontrunner, polling at an impressive 47 percent. The couple also faces weak opposition at the moment in the boxer-turned-senator Manny Pacquiao and Leni Robredo, the competent yet low-key vice president.
Part of the twist here is that the Philippine electoral system for president is warped: it's a one-round contest in which whoever gets a plurality wins. Presidents have been elected with barely a quarter of the vote. Candidates often only need to lock in one or two vote-rich regions outside Manila, as Marcos and Duterte both can, to secure victory.
What's more, the Marcos-Duterte campaign is dominating social media — a silver bullet in a nation rife with online disinformation and fake news, where nearly half the population gets their news from Facebook. And guess who Facebook helped win the last time?
Rodrigo Duterte himself, who's become an unexpected thorn in the side of Marcos and the younger Duterte. Until the last minute the term-limited Duterte senior flirted with the idea of running for VP, even against Sara, but ultimately decided to seek a Senate seat right on the buzzer.
Perhaps upset that his daughter ignored his advice to go for the top job, Duterte is now endorsing another candidate instead of his ally Marcos, with his daughter as vice president (the Philippines elects presidents and VPs separately).
Arugay says not having a single ticket is a problem for both Duterte and Marcos. For one thing, it'll split the pro-Duterte vote, not to mention confusing voters. For another, Marcos will have to walk on eggshells with the notoriously thin-skinned president because the Supreme Court, which may hear a disqualification case against Marcos over tax evasion, is packed with Duterte appointees.
What is this all so bad for Philippine democracy? For Arugay, this election is a "new low." It's turned voting for president into an "all in the family" affair because dynasties rather than parties have determined the candidates.
When political parties are created overnight and can implode just as quickly, elections are mere popularity contests. Without sound debate about ideas and policy, the country's many problems will never get fixed.
Unfortunately, as long as those who have the power to reform the Philippine political system are the same politicians who cause the problems in the first place, any hope of progress remains a very long shot.