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Chinese President Xi Jinping and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr review the honour guard during a welcome ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China January 4, 2023
Can a hotline prevent war in South China Sea?
I know when that hotline bling, that can only mean one thing: Beijing and Manila are beefing over uninhabitable rocks again. China and the Philippines have reportedly set up a bilateral hotline meant to help them avoid a deadly incident in the disputed South China Sea.
The effort to improve communications follows a particularly violentconfrontation on June 17, when Chinese sailors surrounded and boarded Filipino vessels wielding bladed weapons. One Filipino sailor lost his finger, and the fear is that should someone lose their life, Manila could activate its mutual defense treaty with the United States.
The Biden administration has struck a nuanced position, assuring Manila that it would honor the treaty fully while also attempting to signal to China that they aren’t handing out carte blanche to the Philippines. Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says proactive communication after the June 17 incident has helped lower the temperature.
“Beijing interpreted the June 28 call between Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and China's Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu in particular as a clear signal that Washington does not support Manila in pushing its territorial claims too aggressively,” he said.
Being able to quickly pick up the phone and talk through future incidents is a useful pressure release valve, but longer term, the South China Sea and the shoals used to mark de facto control will remain a tension point. We are watching how it will affect US and Chinese efforts to stabilize their own relationship.
Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida poses with U.S President Joe Biden as they are on the way to state dinner in Washington DC, U.S, on April 10, 2024.
Biden and Kishida bromance is meant to make Xi sweat
The White House showered Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida with gifts and honors during his state visit starting Wednesday, but the friendly display is aimed just as much at Beijing as it is Tokyo.
Kishida and Biden announced an upgrade to the longstanding US-Japan defense agreement on Wednesday that will make Japan’s military more agile by appointing a local US command and organizing a joint military-industrial production committee. The two will hold a trilateral meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Thursday to discuss further military cooperation.
“The US-Japan security alliance – even though it’s remarkably strong – is not well integrated and unified in a way where forces can rapidly respond,” says Eurasia Group Japan director David Boling, “The long-term goal is for a combined command, with deep force integration, that can respond lickety-split to emergency contingencies.”
A Paul Simonconcert over ribeye must be a nice change of atmosphere for Kishida, who is unpopular and struggling to put a lid on party scandals at home. One of the few areas where he does relatively well with voters is foreign policy, and Kishida has continued the augmentation of Japan’s armed forces while bolstering relations with South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines — all potential conflict zones with China.
Tokyo’s relationship with Manila has seen the greatest strides forward, including a new agreement that could see Japanese troops deployed to the archipelago.
“On the Philippines, Japan has recognized that any contingency that escalates into a kinetic conflict is going to immediately implicate Japan,” says Eurasia Group senior analyst Jeremy Chan. After all, many of the US troops and ships that would support the Philippines (or Taiwan or South Korea) are stationed in Japan, making US bases there tempting targets for China.
We’re watching for Beijing’s reaction to Thursday’s trilateral.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and US. President Joe Biden walk to the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC.
Despite big US trip, Philippine leader still walks a Chinese tightrope
On Monday, US President Joe Biden welcomed Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. to the White House almost 41 years after the latter's dictator dad had his last huddle with Ronald Reagan. (Fun fact: Thanks to diplomatic immunity, Bongbong visits America without fear of arrest despite an outstanding $353 million contempt of court fine over a lawsuit linked to the elder Marcos's human-rights abuses.)
More importantly, the five-day trip comes at what is being billed as an inflection point in US-Philippine ties over ... China. Since taking office in mid-2022, Bongbong has departed from the blatantly pro-Beijing policies of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. That has included opening up more Philippine military camps to US forces to police the disputed South China Sea and defend Taiwan from a hypothetical Chinese invasion.
Yet, if you look closely, Bongbong is doing more of a course correction than a full U-turn. He visited China early in his term before going to the US and has been careful to avoid any fiery rhetoric that might irk Xi Jinping. Washington would love to have Manila firmly in its corner — despite Biden not being a fan of the Marcoses — but Bongbong would rather keep his country out of the crossfire of the growing US-China rivalry.World leaders: Thanks for nothing!
This Thursday, many of our readers — particularly in the US — will celebrate Thanksgiving.
At worst, it’s a day to argue with your relatives about super-chill topics like climate change, racism, abortion, or cancel culture (here’s a useful guide for that.)
But at best, it’s an opportunity to take a moment, look around, and recognize the things you’re grateful for in this life.
And it’s not just you — our world leaders have much to be thankful for as well. Here, then, is a partial list of global gratitude:
US President Joe Biden: God love ya, Donald, I’m grateful you’re gonna run again! You’re probably the only fella I can beat in 2025, I mean ‘24. Don’t you go messing this up, Florida Gov. Ronda Sannis!
Former US President Donald Trump: Even though I am still VERY unfairly treated by the FAKE media and radical left psychopaths who are doing so much to ruin our beautiful COUNTRY, I am grateful that I continue to be the person I admire most: ME. #Trump2024
Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani:Shukran! We are so thankful to the billions of fans who aren’t fazed by our little kingdom’s human rights fiascos and dodgy FIFA dealings — and we’re especially grateful that the world’s second-largest economy is among them.
Twitter boss Elon Musk: Hey so yeah thanks for the extremely hard work of the 18 guys — literally all guys — who still work for me here. But what I’d REALLY like is can Trump get back on Twitter already? Kanye is good LOLs, sure — but I need more mayhem to make this $44 billion worth it.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen: Just grateful for the immense difference that a well-placed strait makes. For now …
Chinese leader Xi Jinping: For now indeed, Ms. Tsai. For my part, I’m thankful that COVID — wherever it came from — had an upside! It’s been a capital excuse to lock down a billion or so people and show the Party “Hu’s” boss.
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel: To be honest, I happy to just be OUT of all this mess entirely. Keeping my notifications OFF. Noch eine Piña Colada, bitte!
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman: Nature is a wonder, a gift. Today I’m grateful to the sedimentary deposits of the prehistoric Tethys Ocean, which — so many hundreds of millions of years later — have helped my country to get rich, and enabled me to get away with ... oh, you know, stuff …
Argentine President Alberto Fernández:Gracias a Messi and the squad for getting humiliated by Saudi Arabia. You have given the Argentines something even worse than the economy to be depressed about for the next week.
North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un: I am grateful to the sea for so graciously putting up with the missiles that I fire into it – constantly, angrily, pointlessly. WHY IS NO ONE PAYING ATTENTION TO ME? WHY?
Brazilian President-elect Lula: I am now a card-carrying member of the Pandemic Gratitude Club founded by Joe Biden. If not for COVID, I don’t think either of us would have won. Obrigadão!
Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr: Not only am I grateful for the world’s best nickname, I also can’t thank today’s Filipino youth enough. They have no idea who my dad was, so they all voted for me! Bongbong loves the kids!
UK PM Rishi Sunak: Grateful indeed to have made it past the “head-of-lettuce” stage of my premiership. Still, it was perhaps foolish to give up swimming through my pools of gold coins just to take charge of the world’s sickest advanced economy.
South Africa’s former President Jacob Zuma: Grateful, my friends, for a little extra time by the pool before I head back to jail, again.
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni: I just want to say grazie mille to Matteo Salvini, whose self-destructive antics have opened so very many opportunities for me. But Silvio, you stay the hell away from me…
Signal writers: We’re grateful to have the best job and readers in the world. It’s a pleasure to write for you and to chat/spar with those of you who write in — either to show love or (especially) to take issue with our work.
You: What are you, dear reader, grateful for? Let us know here.This comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.
Johnson attends a news conference during a NATO summit in Madrid.
What We're Watching: Bombshell UK news, China-Philippines ties, Chilean constitution draft, G20 meeting
Britain’s bombshell resignations
The hits keep coming for the scandal-plagued administration of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. On Tuesday, Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid, both of them heavyweights in the Conservative Party, quit Johnson's government. The trigger came in the wake of MP Chris Pincher’s resignation last week. Pincher stepped down amid new allegations of sexual misconduct. But the party controversy has erupted over the PM’s decision to appoint Pincher as deputy chief whip in the first place. He denied being aware of earlier sexual misconduct allegations against Pincher. Those stemmed from Johnson’s tenure as foreign secretary, when Pincher served under him. The PM was forced to acknowledge this week that he had been briefed on the matter. On Tuesday, Johnson admitted that appointing Pincher had been a mistake. Johnson survived an embarrassing vote of no confidence on June 6 following revelations that he participated in social gatherings that violated COVID lockdown rules and failed to come clean with parliament. But the Pincher scandal and these bombshell resignations now have Johnson’s political career on life support.
Marcos 2.0’s China puzzle
Less than a week after being sworn in as president of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. faces his thorniest foreign-policy issue: China. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi dropped by Manila this week to meet with his newly minted counterpart Enrique Manalo, and so far Marcos is rolling out the red carpet. The Philippine leader said on Tuesday that he's open to boosting military cooperation with Beijing as a way to resolve the countries' dispute over maritime sovereignty in the South China Sea. What that actually means is unclear, but Marcos is trying to carve out his own sweet spot between his China-loving predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, and the prior pro-US administration, which six years ago won an international lawsuit against China over the South China Sea. The stakes are high for the new Philippine president, who must walk a a tightrope to avoid antagonizing both Beijing and Washington (Manila maintains strong defense ties with the latter). What's more, he knows that a majority of Filipinos prefer the US to China, so he’ll have to play both sides to unify a country still divided over the legacy of his dad, the late dictator.
Chileans to vote on new constitution
After a year-long review process, Chile’s 154-member Constitutional Assembly presented a draft new charter to President Gabriel Boric on Monday. Chileans will have two months to review the text before having their say in a referendum scheduled for Sept. 4. In late 2020, Chileans voted overwhelmingly to ditch the current Pinochet-era constitution in a referendum that the government organized in response to mass protests over rising inequality. A year later, Chileans picked a majority of left-leaning and independent candidates to write the draft. The revamped charter focuses on social welfare and the environment instead of economic stability, recognizes the rights of the Indigenous population, and aims to restructure the national healthcare system in one of Latin America's wealthiest yet also most unequal nations. Will it pass Chilean voters' smell test? According to a recent poll, those in favor and against are neck-and-neck, with more than one-third still undecided. Perhaps one of the reasons is the battered Boric, whose approval rating has plummeted since his December 2021 election due to some rookie missteps and the immense challenge of getting anything done in deeply polarized Chile.
Trouble in paradise at the G20
Will the world’s 20 leading economies be able to work together to address soaring global food and energy prices? That’s one big question as the foreign ministers of the G20 prepare to meet this week in the Indonesian island paradise of Bali. But other intrigues abound. Will US, British, and Canadian officials walk out on Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as they did at a G20 finance meeting in April? Doing so would send a message that the “West” disapproves of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but it would also complicate efforts to address food and fuel inflation, which will require some level of cooperation with the Kremlin. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Tony Blinken will meet with his Chinese counterpart on the sidelines of the summit. Among many issues on the agenda for the world’s two largest economies is whether the Biden administration will lift some Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods as a way of bringing down soaring inflation ahead of the midterm elections. If so, what would Washington ask of Beijing in return?Marcos attends a news conference at his headquarters in Manila.
What We're Watching: Marcos inauguration, Indian religious tensions, risotto shortage
Will Marcos 2.0 be kind to the Philippine media?
Weeks after winning the election in a landslide, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (aka Bongbong, or more recently BBM) will be inaugurated on Thursday as president of the Philippines. He has a lot on his plate, including uniting — as he promised repeatedly during the campaign — a country deeply divided over the legacy of his father, the late dictator. One issue that'll surely pop up soon is how he'll handle the media, which was heavily censored under the elder Marcos’ martial law. On Tuesday, the Philippine SEC ordered the shutdown of Rappler, the news site run by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa, a vocal critic of outgoing strongman President Rodrigo Duterte. BBM will also face pressure to return a broadcast franchise to ABS-CBN, the country's biggest network, which Duterte canceled in early 2020 (and Marcos' dad also took off the air entirely in the 1980s). Supporters say Marcos 2.0 wants to kick off his presidency with a charm offensive to appease his enemies, but he may have more of a problem with his most powerful friend. Overturning two of Duterte's most controversial decisions would not go down well with the famously pugnacious outgoing leader — whose feisty daughter is … Marcos’s VP.
Religious tensions put Indian state on high alert
Authorities in Udaipur — the capital of Rajasthan, India's largest state — have cut off the internet and banned large gatherings amid fresh religious tensions over the murder of a Hindu man by two Muslims. The suspects — now in custody — recorded the violence and posted it online, claiming they were justified because the victim had voiced support for two now-suspended officials from the ruling Hindu nationalist BJP party who made controversial comments about the Prophet Mohammed a month ago. The comments sparked violent protests throughout India, as well as a diplomatic kerfuffle with the Islamic world, yet PM Narendra Modi has rebuffed calls for an apology. (In another video, the assailants of the Hindu man’s murder appear to threaten Modi with cleavers.) Religious tensions are common in majority-Hindu India, so what's different now? First, attacks by Muslims against Hindus are rare and will surely inflame the latter; second, the clip is still going viral among Hindu nationalists outside Udaipur — upping the odds of further violence that could spread. In case you're wondering, the state is governed by the opposition Congress Party, always eager to score political points by blaming the crisis on the BJP.
Risotto lovers may want to stock up
Arborio rice — the type used to make beloved Italian risotto — has hit hard times due to a lack of rain as Italy faces its worst drought in over 70 years. This year’s rice fields in the Po River valley are too dry to harvest. But Italy is far from the only place suffering. In Mexico, extreme weather – from droughts to heavy storms to flooding – is disrupting the production of its famed chili peppers. In France and Canada, meanwhile, storms and rain pushed seed production down by 50% this past year, impacting condiment availability. While arborio rice, peppers, and seeds are being hurt by weather patterns, other countries are struggling with hunger pains as a result of the Russian invasion. Curiously, on the other side of the globe, Asia’s greatest source of resilience to the Ukraine wheat crisis has been its rice production. This is a relief, seeing as South, Southeast, and East Asia are responsible for the world’s production and consumption of 80% of the world’s rice. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned of the risk of several famines being declared this year – and with the war raging on, fears things could grow even worse for food production in 2023.
Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s win, corruption and kleptocracy in the Philippines
With Marcos Jr. about to win the presidency, how will his leadership change the Philippines? Sri Lanka's prime minister resigned. Will its president be next? Is Sinn Féin's victory a sign that a united Ireland is closer? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Marcos Jr. about to win the presidency, how will his leadership change the Philippines?
Well, it was a big win, almost 30 points over his opponent, and the first time we've seen an absolute majority in Philippines history for the presidency. Not huge changes expected in governance. Let's keep in mind that the vice president is actually the daughter of President Duterte, who's just leaving power. The president and the vice presidents here are actually... Those elections are held separately, and so you can have different parties that actually win, and frequently do, which is sort of an unusual twist to the Philippines. Pro-foreign direct investment, generally pro-markets, a little bit more of a US and Western tilt as opposed to Duterte, whose military really was skeptical of China, but he personally was more engaged with Beijing. The big question is what's the cabinet going to look like, how independent, how technocratic, or is there going to be a lot of corruption, a lot of kleptocracy? Keeping in mind that Bongbong, the new president, is the son of Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos, who were drummed out for an extraordinary abuse of power in the Philippines before. So what everyone's going to be watching.
Sri Lanka's prime minister resigned. Will its president be next?
Well, I mean, since we're talking about kleptocracy, let's keep in mind that the president is the younger brother of the now resigned prime minister, and they've let go a bunch of... You've got the ministers of finance that have been sort of a revolving door recently. This is the worst economic crisis of Sri Lanka's history. And it's led to a lot of demonstrations, mass protests, a lot of violence, and that's why the PM is gone. But there's also a state of emergency. The military, the police are out in force, the president clearly trying his damnedest to avoid having to step down. And the real question is going to be how explosive the situation on the ground is. Could this become sort of a mass-driven coup, and might you see some splits in the military as a consequence of that?
Is Sinn Féin's victory a sign that a united Ireland is closer?
Well, yeah, of course it's closer in the sense that you now have a party, a Catholic party, that's won for the first time, more history, in Northern Ireland that is interested in a unionist position on Ireland. And Brexit of course did set this off, but a strong majority of citizens in Northern Ireland do not support even a referendum on unification, and certainly don't support unification, though Sinn Féin has said that they'd like to have such a vote within five years. More importantly is that this is going to be used, the Sinn Féin victory, by Boris Johnson and his Tory government to push for changing the rules agreed with the European Union in the breakup, on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, Northern Ireland and Europe. And that has the potential to really disrupt, further disrupt, UK-EU trade over the course of the next 12 months. So in the near-term, that's the problem. In the long-term, no question there's more pressure on political devolution and disillusion in the not so United Kingdom.