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Why Sweden and Finland joined NATO
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Hanoi, Vietnam.
Was the Swedish and Finnish decision to move into NATO, was that driven by fear of Russia attacking them?
Not really. I don't think either of our countries feel any immediate threat by Russian aggression. But what happened when Russia, Mr. Putin, to be precisely, attacked Ukraine was a fundamental upsetting of the entire European security order. And although Mr. Putin's priority at the moment, he’s very clear on that, is to get rid of Ukraine by invading and occupying all of it, you never know where he's going to stop. And this led Finland and Sweden to do the fundamental reassessment of their security policies. Giving up, in Swedish case, we've been outside of military alliances for the last 200 years or something like that.
So it was not a minor step. And that step has now been taken. Finland completed its ratification, has been a member for a couple of months. Sweden has now formally become a member after some hiccups with the ratification process. It's a major change for our two countries need to say. It is a significant strengthening of NATO. It is a significant strengthening of the security in northern Europe and I think also will facilitate a better coordination between the military alliance of NATO and the security alliance of the EU to the obvious advantage of security of Europe and the security of the West.
It's a good day.
Scotland's First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) Leader Nicola Sturgeon.
What We’re Watching: Sturgeon's resignation, NATO-Nordic divide, India vs. BBC, Tunisia’s tightening grip
Nicola Sturgeon steps down
Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced on Wednesday that she is stepping down. She’s been in the role for over eight years, having taken power after the failed 2014 independence referendum. Speaking from Edinburgh, Sturgeon said she’d been contemplating her future for weeks and knew "in my head and in my heart" it was time to go. A longtime supporter of Scottish independence, Sturgeon was pushing for a new referendum, which was rejected by the UK’s top court late last year. In recent weeks, she and her colleagues had been debating whether the next national election in 2024 should be an effective referendum on independence. Sturgeon will stay in power until a successor is elected — likely contenders include John Swinney, Sturgeon’s deputy first minister, Angus Robertson, the culture and external affairs secretary, and Kate Forbes, the finance secretary.
Turkey divides Finland and Sweden
On Tuesday, NATO and other Western officials publicly acknowledged for the first time that Finland and Sweden might join the transatlantic alliance at different times, a notable public admission that negotiations with Turkey over Sweden’s NATO accession haven’t gone well. Neither Nordic country can become an alliance member without unanimous support from all existing members, and NATO-member Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has a beef with Sweden. Erdogan is angry that Sweden’s government has provided asylum for dozens of Kurdish leaders he considers terrorists, and it didn’t help when a right-wing activist burned a Koran outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm, an act Sweden’s government treated as an offensive act of free speech that’s protected by law. Erdogan may also see a political opportunity to boost his reelection chances by defying European leaders in general and Sweden in particular. (Turkey’s elections are expected in May or June.) For NATO, Finland’s membership is arguably the more urgent priority. Though Sweden monitors occasional Russian naval intrusions into its territorial waters, it’s Finland that shares an 810-mile land border with Russia. European leaders hope that, if Erdogan wins his election, a deal can be cut in the coming months to allow Sweden to join the club.
India takes aim at BBC
Indian tax officials raided the BBC’s local offices on Tuesday in what they said was a probe into the British broadcaster’s business practices. But the move comes amid a broader government campaign to censor a new BBC documentary about Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s role in anti-Muslim riots that killed more than 1,000 people in the state of Gujarat while he was governor in 2002. Modi has always denied stoking – or neglecting – the violence, and India’s Supreme Court has reached a similar conclusion. In the weeks since the doc aired in the UK, Modi’s government has cracked down swiftly in India, blocking it from being viewed online in the country, halting screenings at Indian universities, and forcing both Twitter and YouTube to remove it locally. Modi has often used internet laws to muzzle criticism, and tax officials have searched critical media outlets before. Last year the subcontinent slipped eight points to 150 out of 180 countries in the Reporters Without Borders Press Freedom Index. How will the UK government respond?
Tunisia crackdown intensifies
Robocop is not messing around now. Tunisian President Kais Saied, whose monotone style earned him that nickname, has unleashed a ferocious crackdown on his critics and opponents in recent days. On Tuesday, sweeping arrests ensnared the leader of Ennahda, an opposition Islamist movement that once held power in the country. Saied, a constitutional lawyer who was elected as an outsider candidate in 2019, has led a massive overhaul of Tunisia’s government, diminishing the power of the legislature and the courts. He says he’s trying to make government more decisive and efficient in the only country that emerged from the Arab Spring with a democracy. His critics say he is plunging the country of 12 million right back into an authoritarian winter. See our full profile of Saied here.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
What We’re Watching: Blinken’s Middle East chats, Erdogan’s bid to split Nordics, Peru’s early election, China offers baby incentives
Blinken meets with Middle East leaders
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken picked a volatile time to visit the region. After first stopping in Egypt to meet with President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, the US’ top diplomat touched down in Israel on Monday, where he took part in a press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu. But Blinken’s visit comes amid a violent flareup in the long-running Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Last week, Israel carried out an operation in Jenin in the West Bank, targeting members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad in an operation that killed nine people, including civilians. Meanwhile, on Friday night, a Palestinian opened fire on Jews praying at a synagogue in East Jerusalem, killing seven. Then on Saturday, a 13-year-old Palestinian boy shot a father and son in Jerusalem’s Old City. What’s more, Israel is currently in the throes of a constitutional crisis as Netanyahu’s right-wing government seeks to dilute the power of the independent judiciary. But analysts say that the top agenda item is undoubtedly Iran. Over the weekend, Israel reportedly struck a compound in the Iranian city of Isfahan used to manufacture long-range missiles. (For more on the Isfahan attack and why Iran is feeling increasing pressure at home and abroad, watch Ian Bremmer’s Quick Take here.) It’s unclear whether the US was informed in advance about the strike, but Israeli leadership has in the past clashed with Washington over Jerusalem’s go-at-it-alone approach to dealing with Iran. As things become increasingly volatile in the Iran-Israel shadow war, Blinken presumably wants to make sure that the US is kept in the loop. On Tuesday, Blinken will meet with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israel's opposition leader Yair Lapid.
Finland sticks with Sweden, despite Erdoğan’s wedge
Many thought Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession bid was all sewn up last summer. But it requires approval from all 30 bloc members, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan now says he is willing only to greenlight Finland’s bid. Erdoğan’s decision to hold out on Sweden comes in the wake of outcry over a protest in Stockholm where a Quran was burned earlier this month. Despite speculation that Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometer (810-mile) border with Russia, might proceed without Sweden, Finland’s foreign minister said otherwise on Monday. He explained that his country is willing to wait until the Swedish issue is resolved thanks to security assurances from the US and Britain. In exchange for NATO membership, Erdoğan has also demanded the two countries hand over scores of Turkish and Kurdish dissidents and stop more Erdoğan critics from seeking refuge there. Expect this standoff, which is helping Erdoğan whip up nationalist fervor at home, to continue until Turkey’s presidential election on May 14.
Will Peruvians vote this year?
Peru's Congress on Monday voted to reconsider holding an early election in October to help end violent protests that broke out after former President Pedro Castillo was impeached and removed in December 2022. So far, at least 58 people have died in the rallies, the majority of them Indigenous people from Peru's rural highlands who support Castillo. If the early election proposal is voted down, current President Dina Boluarte will likely present her own plan, which would also call for a first-round vote in October and a runoff in November. If that fails and the protests continue, Boluarte might just cave to the protesters by resigning, which would force the Congress president to call an immediate election, as mandated by the constitution. Confused? So are we. The bigger questions are whether angry Peruvians can wait several months to vote before the situation gets out of control, and what happens if it does. The only thing we do know is that 60% of Peruvians want elections ASAP and a whopping 89% of them resent how Congress is handling the crisis.
One Chinese province tries for more babies
For the first time since the 1960s, China’s population shrank in 2022, setting off alarm bells that its one-child policy (in place from 1980-2015) created a looming demographic crisis that will stunt the country’s economic growth and force older Chinese into poverty. With fewer young people to support the elderly in a country with a still underdeveloped social safety net, public officials are now scrambling for ways to encourage citizens to make more babies. Another sign of the times: Sichuan, home to more than 80 million people, has become the latest province to allow unmarried couples to register children to receive health benefits. (Guangdong province, which borders Hong Kong, has made similar changes. The city of Shanghai offered these reforms in 2021 before rescinding them within weeks.) The change, effective February 15, will allow unmarried women and men to register with local authorities to receive insurance to cover child-related medical bills and to keep their salaries during maternity leave. The debate within China that pits economic imperatives against family values has only begun to heat up.
Should Ukraine be offered NATO membership?
Finnish leaders know how to have a good time, which is probably why Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto recently sat down with Ian Bremmer to discuss Finland’s NATO accession.Threats from the Kremlin had kept Finland (and Sweden) from joining the alliance for 75 years. But the invasion of Ukraine changed all that. In May, Finland’s long-serving President Sauli Niinistö rang his old friend, Vladimir Putin. “It’s not me, it’s you,” Niinistö intimated to the Russian leader.
Putin reacted calmly, and those decades of threats have resulted in … zilch. Haavisto says Putin is too preoccupied with the Ukraine offensive to worry about Finland – he notes that Finns can see Russia moving its military away from their border, presumably to beef up reinforcements on the frontlines.
But that doesn’t mean joining NATO has been smooth sailing for the land of a thousand lakes. A surprise hiccup came from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has an axe to grind with the Nordics over things like their alleged support for a Kurdish group in Syria they say is linked to the PKK, which Ankara regards as a terrorist group. Erdoğan said neither Finland nor Sweden should be allowed to join NATO while harboring “terrorists.” But the three came to a tentative agreement in June to move forward with the membership process.
The Finns’ bid to join NATO was fueled by its changing security situation when the neighbor with whom Finland shares an 830-mile border suddenly brought war back to the continent. So imagine how Ukraine has felt for years … Sure, the members of NATO have now welcomed Ukraine’s bid to join. But in retrospect, should membership have been extended to Kyiv before now?
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Finland's President Sauli Niinisto and Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson pose after signing a document during a NATO summit in Madrid, Spain.
What We're Watching: Turkey backs off, Texas migrant tragedy, bombshell Jan. 6 testimony, Iran woos BRICS
Turkey opens NATO door to Finland and Sweden
The first day of the NATO Summit in Madrid brought concrete results. Turkey, Finland, and Sweden came to an agreement that addresses Ankara’s security concerns and paves the path to Finland and Sweden joining NATO. The Nordics’ joint bid for membership, inspired by Russian aggression in Ukraine, was at the center of the summit’s agenda. Accession demands consensus, and Turkey had raised objections, making security-centric demands from Stockholm and Helsinki that threatened to slow the process. In response, Sweden and Finland have suspended a 2019 arms embargo against Ankara and agreed to cut assistance to the People’s Protection Units, an armed group affiliated with the Kurdistan Worker’s Party, Turkey’s enemy. Some of Ankara’s requests still need to be discussed, but Turkey is walking away from its veto option, swinging the doors open to Finland and Sweden’s membership in NATO. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, has said the expansion doesn’t threaten Russia but warned that Moscow would respond to any extension of military infrastructure into that region.
Will latest Jan. 6 testimony move the needle?
The ongoing January 6 hearings on Capitol Hill took a notable turn on Tuesday when a former aide to then-White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows provided new details about what went down that day. Crucially, Cassidy Hutchinson – who had unfettered access to the president’s inner circle – testified that Trump encouraged rioters to descend on the US Capitol knowing that many of them were armed with weapons. Hutchinson also testified that Trump said former Vice President Mike Pence was deserving of the mob’s wrath because he rebuffed Trump’s plea to reject the 2020 election results. She said she cleaned up a mess from Trump throwing his ketchup-soaked lunch against the wall in anger after former Attorney General William Barr gave a news interview in which he said he had not found widespread voter fraud. Hutchinson also said that Meadows, her former boss, later sought a pardon for his role in the events on that fateful day. Some legal analysts say that Trump allegedly knowing members of the crowd were armed and encouraging them to march to the Capitol could open him up to criminal charges. But will it impact American voters who are more deeply divided than ever ahead of November’s midterms?
Texas migrant tragedy and Biden’s immigration dilemma
The dual problem of a broken US immigration system and chronic instability in Central America was highlighted again this week when a truck filled with dozens of dead migrants was discovered near San Antonio, Texas. At least 46 people – including Mexican, Honduran, and Guatemalan nationals – were found dead in an abandoned tractor-trailer amid 100-degree temperatures. At least 16 others, including children, were taken to the hospital, where four later died, raising the death toll to 50. This tragedy, the deadliest US immigration event in recent years, highlights the ongoing challenge President Joe Biden faces in making good on his promise for a more "humane" immigration system. So what has the administration been trying to do? First, it sought to lift the Trump-era “Remain in Mexico” policy, which requires migrants seeking entry to the US to wait in towns south of the border while their asylum applications are considered. That case is now awaiting a decision by the Supreme Court after Republican states sued to keep it in place. Biden has also sought to lift the Trump-era Title 42, which allowed the US to stop processing asylum claims due to COVID. For now, a federal court has banned Biden from lifting the law, which leaves the president open to mounting criticism from the left flank of his party.
Iran wants in on BRICS
Increasingly isolated on the global stage, Tehran could use a few friends. On Tuesday, it applied to join BRICS – a loose economic grouping made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa that has set up its own development bank and claims to represent the Global South. (China notably accounts for 70% of the group’s collective economic strength, while India accounts for 13%.) Iran’s economy is on life support due to crippling Western sanctions – another reason they’re seeking membership – but Tehran says it would be an asset to BRICS because it maintains the world’s second-largest gas reserves. We will be watching for reactions from India and the US. Delhi has long positioned itself as nonaligned – though a more apt description might be “aligned with everyone” as it’s tried hard to remain chummy with Russia in recent months while maintaining warm ties with American and European allies. The White House, focused on reviving the ailing Iran nuclear deal, would not look kindly on a decision by India to grant membership to Tehran and help the heavily sanctioned state boost its economic prospects.What is Turkey thinking?
It’s been over a month since Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO. But despite expectations of a speedy process, the joint bid has been met by an unexpected and troublesome obstacle: Turkey.
Historically, applications to NATO have been very smooth, as with many Eastern European countries in the 2000s; or they can be complicated and unyielding, as with Ukraine. But this time, Helsinki and Stockholm face just one skeptical member armed with a list of demands and that all-important veto power.
From reassurances that it wouldn’t “close the door” to the two Nordic countries joining the alliance, to concession requests, and even threats of delaying the accession for up to a year, Ankara’s foreign policy seems a tad all over the place.
Now, less than a week away from the NATO summit in Madrid — where many believed the Swedes and Finns would formally join the alliance — one can’t help but wonder: what the heck is on Turkey’s mind?
Ankara’s demands. When Turkey first raised its objection, many onlookers assumed it was all about optics, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan playing to his base to rally domestic support ahead of next year’s national election.
But the Turks say they want:
- Sweden and Finland to treat the Kurdistan Worker’s Party like the Islamic State
- For the Finns, Swedes, and a few other European states to lift a 2019 arms embargo over Turkey’s military intervention in northern Syria
- The extradition of some 30 alleged terrorists residing in Sweden
Erdogan’s motives. Really at the heart of what Turkey is asking for are calculations about its strategic and domestic interests, says Emre Peker, a Europe Director at Eurasia Group.
“Any government would push for similar concessions, maybe just in a more diplomatic, behind-closed-doors manner,” Peker says.
Sure, Erdogan wants to win at home, and his grandstanding is part of that push. “But he’s not motivated purely by domestic politics,” Peker says. It’s a reflection of his long-running focus on NATO behavior and security concerns, particularly regarding the Kurdish YPG militia in northern Syria.
While Turkey can’t get the US or French to drop their support for the YPG, Ankara “does have the leverage to push would-be NATO members to accept [its] security concern before joining the alliance.”
But it’s a delicate dance. Although pushing allies to fully consider Turkey’s security contract is one thing, Turkey can’t isolate itself within NATO without suffering “grave security, defense consequences,” Peker adds.
Long-term grievances. Erdogan’s PKK shenanigans have a lot to do with national security. Not only is Turkey hosting 3.6 million Syrian refugees, but the tensions along its shared border and the Kurdish-held region are far from resolved. Just last week, Turkey started planning a military operation in Syria against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.
Possible wins. While the Turkish president can’t really afford a fight, he can certainly use a victory. The self-serving reality of this push could help Erdogan build a success story in foreign policy, framing himself as a negotiator on the world stage.
“Ankara is trying to position itself as a nominally neutral country that can also act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia,” Peker says.
Possible losses. As the war continues in Ukraine and NATO members grow increasingly frustrated with Turkey blocking accession, Helsinki may find itself being collateral damage.
For now, the Finns are trying to talk things out with the Turks to resolve the situation without delay. But the real beef is with Sweden, which has had a strong bond with the Kurdish cause and is home to a far bigger Kurdish community than Finland.
“The real problem remains between Turkey and Sweden,” says Peker, and it is now up to these two players to “iron out their bilateral issues.” If they don’t, Finland, the country with the most to lose as Russia’s next-door neighbor may be stuck in the crossfire … and outside the alliance.
Voting in Australia's federal election.
What We’re Watching: Aussies vote, Turkey threatens Nordic states, elections loom in Israel
What will voters decide Down Under?
Aussie voters head to the polls on Saturday to decide whether to keep Prime Minister Scott Morrison (ScoMo) of the right-leaning Liberal-National Coalition in power, or to pass the baton to the Labor Party’s Anthony Albanese. Speak to any Aussie, and they’ll tell you that neither bespeckled, middle-aged candidate inspires much excitement. Still, someone has to win! After nearly two years under some of the tightest COVID lockdown restrictions in the world, Aussies appear ready for change: Albanese, a left-leaning centrist, is leading in national polls by 2%. That’s encouraging for ScoMo, who just two weeks ago was trailing by 8 percentage points. The election cycle has been dominated by the cost-of-living crisis currently plaguing many advanced economies. Though unemployment in Australia has hit record lows, inflation is outpacing wage growth. Albanese, a long-time politician with little cabinet experience, has made a series of gaffes recently about the economy that likely contributed to the narrowing margin. According to ABC, some 5-8% of Aussie voters are still undecided. That could be the difference between whether Labor comes out on top after nearly a decade in opposition government. As Signal’s resident Aussie (Gabrielle), I am off to vote!
Turkey plays hardball with Nordic NATO bids
Finland and Sweden thought joining NATO would be a cakewalk, but they’ve run into some serious Turkish veto power. Ankara wants the Swedes to extradite 33 members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party — considered a terrorist group by the EU — and to end their arms embargo against Turkey over its military intervention in northern Syria. Turkey has less of a beef with Finland, but just in case, the Finns clarified that they won't host NATO bases or nukes (Sweden's ruling party concurs). But perhaps what the Turks really want is something the Nordics can't offer: for the US Congress to lift its ban on selling Turkey F-35 fighter jets — payback for Ankara purchasing Russian S-400 missiles against Washington's wishes. It turns out the Biden administration wanted to offer F-16s before Turkey upended NATO’s expansion plans, so let’s see how this all plays out. Turkey’s tough-talking President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan knows how to keep allies on edge, and he’s doing so when he can’t really afford to pick fights: his economy is in shambles, so he needs friends to invest in Turkey.
Correction: This brief originally referred mistakenly to a ban F-16s, not F-35s.
New elections loom in Israel … again
Israel’s fragile coalition government experienced a big blow on Thursday after Rinawie Zoabi, an Arab lawmaker from the far-left Meretz Party, quit the coalition. Zoabi criticized the government, led by PM Naftali Bennett, for pandering to the far-right flank of the bloc. She also said that recent violence around the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem and the killing of a prominent Palestinian journalist in the West Bank forced her to make the “moral decision.” This comes just weeks after another coalition legislator bolted, and Bennett now has the unenviable task of leading a minority government (there are 59 coalition members in the 120-seat chamber), which will make it very hard to pass legislation. Meanwhile, former PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, who now heads the opposition, is pushing hard for a no-confidence vote in the Knesset next Wednesday that would force another election, the country’s fifth in two and a half years. It is unclear, however, whether he has the votes. Bibi has to tread carefully: according to Knesset rules, if the motion fails, he has to wait six months before he can try again. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, the architect behind the unwieldy coalition, now has less than a week to try and stave off more defections that could sound the death knell for the Bennett government.
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Finland and Sweden NATO bid faces problems with Turkey’s Erdogan
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on European politics from Nuuk, Greenland.
Will Sweden and Finland join NATO?
Well, they have decided, Finland is in the process of a parliamentary process. Sweden took the government decision today to apply for membership of NATO. That means that they will hand in their applications within a day or two, that’s dependent upon some technical details. And then it is up to the NATO members to decide whether they will be accepted or not. It’s welcomed by most countries. The Russian reaction, so far, has been perhaps somewhat more subdued than you could expect; they have other issues to deal with at the moment. There are some problems with Mr. Erdogan in Turkey who wants to extract some concessions on completely unrelated issues. But I would hope, and I would guess, that this would be sorted out. And this will no doubt strengthen NATO as a Western alliance, a cohesive alliance, determined to do its contribution to the stability of Europe with the support also of the administration in Washington.
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