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What Florida's abortion rulings mean for the 2024 US election
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we are watching in US Politics this week: Abortion.
Abortion is the big story in US politics this week with the Florida state Supreme Court ruling that a ballot initiative that would protect access to abortion up until fetal viability will be on the ballot in abortion in Florida this year. Democrats are excited about this ruling because it was starting to look like Florida was increasingly out of reach for them.
Republicans now out register Democratic voters in the state by over 800,000 registered voters, which is a flip from a decade ago when Democrats outnumbered Republicans by about 500,000 registered voters. Florida is looking like more and more of a red state with a massive 20 point victory for Republican Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2022 midterm elections. That's what was making Democrats feel like it wouldn't be a very competitive state in this presidential cycle.
However, with abortion on the ballot, they now see an opportunity for outside groups to come in and spend a bunch of money who otherwise wouldn't have sent money there, forcing Republicans to respond by potentially wasting money there. The state is probably a little bit too red for it to truly be competitive for President Biden in this election cycle.
But this abortion referendum story is going to play out across the country. Democratic activists have the opportunity to get abortion on the ballot in two critical swing states of Nevada and Arizona. But it's unlikely they would show up in the other swing states of Wisconsin or Michigan, because Wisconsin had a recent state Supreme Court decision about it. And Michigan had an abortion referendum in 2022. That doesn't mean they can't find other ways to make this election about access to abortion, which has been a very positive issue for Democrats.
There have been seven state referendums since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. And in each of those, the electorate shifted significantly to the left from what they did in the 2020 results, even in deep red states like Kansas and Kentucky. So this is going to be an important issue to keep watching throughout the election. And could be one of the wild cards that helps Joe Biden overcome the bad polls that he's been experiencing in recent weeks.
USA TODAY NETWORK via Reuters Connect
Abortion in Florida: banned and on the ballot
The decisions are likely to benefit Democrats in November. Surveys have shown that most of Florida’s voters oppose bans on abortion during the very early stages of pregnancy, and Democrats have consistently won in swing states when abortion is on the ballot. Donald Trump, who is trying to claw back some credibility on the issue after appointing the justices that overturned Roe v Wade, called the ban “terrible.”
It also all but eliminates abortion access in the Southern USand will strain abortion services across the country. Last year, more than 84,000 people got abortions in Florida, more than in almost any other state, and a yearly increase of 2,000 thanks to people from other states with bans traveling to the Sunshine State to receive abortion care.
FILE PHOTO: General view shows the United States Supreme Court, in Washington, U.S., February 8, 2024.
Can the government dictate what’s on Facebook?
The Supreme Court heard arguments on Monday from groups representing major social media platforms which argue that new laws in Florida and Texas that restrict their ability to deplatform users are unconstitutional. It’s a big test for how free speech is interpreted when it comes to private technology companies that have immense reach as platforms for information and debate.
Supporters of the states’ laws originally framed them as measures meant to stop the platforms from unfairly singling out conservatives for censorship – for example when X (then Twitter) booted President Donald Trump for his tweets during January 6.
What do the states’ laws say?
The Florida law prevents social media platforms from banning any candidates for public office, while the Texas one bans removing any content because of a user’s viewpoint. As the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals put it, Florida “prohibits all censorship of some speakers,” while Texas “prohibits some censorship of all speakers.”
Social media platforms say the First Amendment protects them either way, and that they aren't required to transmit everyone’s messages, like a telephone company which is viewed as a public utility. Supporters of the laws say the platforms are essentially a town square now, and the government has an interest in keeping discourse totally open – in other words, more like a phone company than a newspaper.
What does the court think?
The justices seemed broadly skeptical of the Florida and Texas laws during oral arguments. As Chief Justice John Roberts pointed out, the First Amendment doesn’t empower the state to force private companies to platform every viewpoint.
The justices look likely to send the case back down to a lower court for further litigation, which would keep the status quo for now, but if they choose to rule, we could be waiting until June.Graphic Truth: Perscription drug prices - a bitter pill
It’s a hard and pricey pill to swallow: US prescription drugs are far more expensive than those in Canada, where the government controls drug prices and can refuse to pay if they are deemed to be too high.
The lobbying power of the US pharmaceutical industry, meanwhile, helps drug companies set the rules. The US also has stronger patent protections than most, allowing manufacturers to dominate the market unopposed for longer.
Finally, the starkest contrast between the two is insurance. The US healthcare system is largely private, with multiple players deciding how drug costs will be shared by consumers. This contrasts with Canada's pride and joy, its national healthcare program, which is a centralized, publicly funded system, allowing it to negotiate prices more effectively (varies by province, and there is no national pharmacare program, but one is being debated).
The Biden administration has made lowering the prices of the most popular – and expensive – prescription drugs a centerpiece of his reelection campaign. Eliquis and Jardiance both made the list as well as many others that treat diabetes, heart disease, and other chronic illnesses that will be subject to price negotiations that will take effect in 2026.
The graph above shows the total cost of some of the most prescribed prescription drugs in the US and Canada. Total cost includes out-of-pocket costs and the contributions of insurance carriers.
Republican presidential candidate and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis in a storm
Hurricane Idalia is set to make landfall on Wednesday in the US state of Florida. The storm will be the first of many this hurricane season, but it blows in at a sensitive political moment for state Gov. Ron DeSantis. The woke-bashing Republican is currently a distant second to Donald Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, but he’s also fending off an increasingly stiff challenge from the youthful upstart conservative tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. (Poll numbers here.)
If DeSantis handles Idalia well, it’ll enable him to look experienced and presidential, drawing a contrast with Ramaswamy’s scant political experience. Of course, if DeSantis flubs it, Idalia could deal a crippling blow to his campaign.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed HB 7, known as the “stop woke act,” in Florida, on April 22, 2022.
Ron DeSantis and the latest battle over Black history
As Black History Month begins today in the US, the country’s latest culture war battle is about … Black history.
On Wednesday, the College Board, a national nonprofit that sets educational standards for colleges, is set to release the framework for a new Advanced Placement course in African American history.
The course has been in the culture war crosshairs since Ron DeSantis, the popular conservative governor of Florida, last week nixed a pilot version of the curriculum from his state’s public high schools, saying it violates his 2022 “Stop WOKE ACT,” which aims to limit the teaching of progressive ideas such as “Critical Race Theory.”
If you’re unfamiliar with the US education system,AP programs are college-level courses for high school students.
If you’re unsure what Critical Race Theory is, it’s an academic approach that argues that racial hierarchies and discriminatory norms have shaped our social, legal, and economic systems, and that racism remains woven into those systems even in the absence of explicitly racist laws.
At issue in Florida are several sections of the AP course that draw on critical theory approaches to address criminal justice, the experiences of non-heterosexual Black people, and reparations for slavery.
DeSantis’ critics say he is censoring certain subjects for political reasons and that he is unfairly singling out African American studies for special scrutiny. A court has already partially blocked application of the Stop WOKE Act over free speech concerns, and Florida students backed by a prominent civil rights attorney have already threatened to sue DeSantis over the AP decision. On Tuesday, DeSantis doubled down, announcing that he now wants to prohibit state universities from spending money on “diversity, equity, and inclusion” initiatives, which aim to broaden the racial and ethnic backgrounds of the student body and staff.
DeSantis, one of America’s foremost conservative culture warriors, says he’s preventing he “indoctrination” of students with ideas that he and his supporters say foment social conflict rather than national unity. Florida’s existing African American history requirements, he points out, already include a focus on the legacies of slavery and racism.
The intrigue: What will the final version of the course look like? The College Board, which took several years to develop the course, has reportedly said it won’t make changes based specifically on Florida’s reaction. If that’s true, the culture war battle lines will be as crisply drawn as ever.
One thing is certain: The move to ban the course is good politics for DeSantis if he wants to inherit — or swipe — the mantle of GOP leadership from Donald Trump ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Arecent poll shows nearly 80% of Republicans oppose teaching “Critical Race Theory” and that 43% oppose teaching about racism at all.
Small wonder that DeSantis’ fellow Republican, Nikki Haley, who harbors higher office ambitions of her own, weighed in with a tersely tweetedswipe at CRT herself earlier this week.
What do you think? Is DeSantis protecting kids from indoctrination, or is he censoring legitimate academic viewpoints? Let us know here (**hides under desk**) – and if you include your name and location, we might publish your response.
- Ian Explains: Will voters care about "anti-woke" politics in 2024? - GZERO Media ›
- The identity politics trap - GZERO Media ›
- Pioneering Black American leaders in US foreign policy - GZERO Media ›
- Are identity politics a trap? A conversation with author and political scientist Yascha Mounk - GZERO Media ›
DeSantis is more disciplined than Trump, says NPR journalist
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is a rising Republican star. And his resounding victory in the US midterms is all but confirmation of a likely run for the president in 2024.
But he'll go up against former President Donald Trump.
For NPR White House correspondent Tamara Keith, they're not the same. DeSantis, she tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, is younger and far more disciplined than Trump.
And Florida's governor is more focused on policy — which may improve his potential for success.
Watch the GZERO World episode: US democracy after US midterms: polarized voters & Trump's GOP
Biden's immigration play, failing students, eye on debates
With Midterm Matters, we are counting down to the US midterm elections on Nov. 8 by separating the signal from the noise on election-related news.
Biden’s pre-midterm immigration play
The number of Venezuelan migrants arriving at the US southern border has plummeted by 90% since President Joe Biden invoked Title 42 (a Trump-era law allowing the expulsion of asylum-seekers on public health grounds) earlier this month.
Noise: Biden positions himself as an advocate of a “fair and humane” immigration system and recently said that he is looking to speed up the processing of asylum applications.
Signal: But Biden is quietly clamping down on illegal migration. He recently reversed course and is building parts of Trump’s border wall and has agreed to hand over $1 billion for “border security.” While Democrats in border states like Arizona Senator Mark Kelly extol their party’s tough-on-immigration stance as they face off in close races, the White House is keeping it on the down-low so as not to isolate the left flank of the Democratic Party.
How will failing grades for US students add up?
Reading and math skills among US schoolchildren declined significantly over the past two years, according to a national educational assessment released Monday. The declines – only 26% of eighth graders and 36% of fourth graders ranked proficient – were the steepest in the assessment’s 30-year history. The results throw the academic impact of pandemic-driven school closures into sharp relief just days before the midterms.
Noise: The results will provide a messaging boost to candidates, particularly from the GOP, who are seeking the votes of moderate Democrat or Independent parents frustrated by the educational impact of school closures, which tended to be more extensive in Democrat-controlled districts.
Signal: "Red state vs. blue state” might not be the most useful lens for the data. Some states that were more cautious, such as California or Massachusetts, fared about as well as states like Texas or Florida that re-opened sooner. But across red/blue lines, the learning of students from poorer households, which generally have fewer resources to facilitate remote learning, were disproportionately harmed by school closures. This deepening inequality, and the debate about how to address it, will last beyond Nov. 8.
DeSantis' 2024 debate prep & Fetterman's health
This week features two big midterm debates. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis will trade blows on Monday with Democratic challenger Charlie Crist, a former congressman and governor. On Tuesday, Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) faces his Republican rival for the Senate, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz.
Noise: DeSantis will likely cruise to a comfortable reelection as he prepares his 2024 White House run. Fetterman is also leading his rival, though by a smaller margin, with Oz taking flak for being a carpetbagger from New Jersey.
Signal: DeSantis might use the opportunity as debate prep against someone who won't be in the room but is 100% guaranteed to be watching: former President Donald Trump. Florida's governor is a rising GOP star, but he'll need serious debate chops to get in any zingers against Trump if he runs in 2024. Fetterman, for his part, hopes to look energetic next to the Trump-endorsed Oz. After all, he suffered a stroke in the middle of his primary campaign, and voters want to know whether he's healthy enough to be a senator.