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Xi invites Putin to China to strengthen "no limits" partnership
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Putin's upcoming visit with Xi Jinping signal a continuing “no limits” partnership between China and Russia?
The relationship is certainly becoming more strategic over time. Not so much because the Russians are changing their behavior. They have very few options at this point. North Korea and Iran are their top allies. Belarus, Syria. I mean, it's a rogues’ gallery, but China is increasingly finding that their ability to work long term in a stable and sustainable way with America's allies in Asia, with the Europeans, and with the United States itself becoming more constrained. And given all of that, willingness to be a closer ally with Russia is increasing over time. Just look at Biden putting 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports. All of this is sending a message to the Chinese that no matter who's elected in November, that the US is trying to contain them. And yeah, I think longer term, the more they see that from the US and their allies, the closer with the Russians they will eventually be.
Why is Europe alarmed with Georgia's “foreign agents” law?
Well, here it's because this is a law. that is, in principle. nothing wrong with it. In principle, just talking about publishing those NGOs, those organizations that get at least 20% funding from external sources. In reality, it's being put in place by a bunch of political leaders that are aligned with Russia. It is almost identical to Russia's own foreign agents law, and it has been used in Russia to chilling effect, to shut down anything that feels like pro-Western democratic opposition in government institutions that in Russia are authoritarian and Georgia are leaning more authoritarian. Keep in mind, this is a Georgia that has constitutionally enshrined that they want to join the European Union and NATO. But the reality is that political officials are moving farther away from that. Big, big demonstrations and potential for violence on the ground in Georgia going forward.
How will Biden respond if Israel continues to push into Rafah?
Well, he said it's a red line, but ultimately it's going to feel like as much of a red line, I suspect, as Obama was on Syria. Yes, they will reduce some level of offensive weaponry that can be used by Israel, in Rafah. But the reality is they're going to keep providing intelligence, keep providing the vast majority of the defense spending that Israel gets from the United States and the weaponry. And there are a lot of members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, that are really upset about the idea of suspending any support to Israel and are moving to try to block Biden legislation, which means he has to find a compromise with them in an election year. All of this puts him firmly in no man's land on the Israel-Palestine issue, not where Biden wants to be.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- The limits of a China-Russia partnership ›
- Tbilisi clashes: Georgia government pushes "Russian" bill risking EU candidacy ›
- Russia invaded Georgia too, and it never left ›
- Biden threatens to cut off some weapons to Israel if Rafah invaded ›
- Putin needs Xi to win the war in Ukraine ›
- All eyes on Russia ahead of Putin-Xi meeting ›
Demonstrators hold a rally to protest against a bill on "foreign agents" in Tbilisi, Georgia, May 13, 2024.
Georgia’s government is ramming through “Russian law”
Police in Tbilisiviolently arrested at least 20 people on Monday at peaceful protests outside parliament, where the inflammatory “foreign agents” law was being rushed through committee. Having passed its third reading, the bill will go to a final vote Tuesday. It now seems all but inevitable to become law, opening questions about how far the ruling Georgian Dream party will go to cement its control.
Discipline has been the watchword of the protesters, even as they face growing repression from authorities. On Saturday, at least50,000 people (some local sources say200,000) marched through the capital despite the pouring rain, waving Georgian, EU, and some Ukrainian flags while chanting pro-democracy slogans. Using force, police dispersed some who attempted to camp overnight on Sunday, with multiple videos shared on social media depicting vicious beatings.
Georgia-born Eurasia Group analyst Tinatin Japaridze says that once the bill fully becomes law, the focus will shift to general elections scheduled for October. The young people who believe this law willthrottle civil society and rob them of a European-aligned future seem likely to stay on the streets even after the bill passes. “The fight will shift to be about survival: the survival of Georgia’s democracy for the protesters, and the survival of the Georgian Dream party for the government,” she says.
Similar debates over aligning more with the East vs. West have been at the crux of politics for many former Eastern Bloc countries. In some places, like Ukraine in 2014, and Georgia itself in 2003, popular protests have led to more democratic, EU-leaning administrations. In others, like Belarus in 2006 and 2020, the government crushed unrest with force and entrenched a regime servile to Moscow.
We’re watching for how well the protesters preserve their momentum over the next few months, and how the splintered opposition parties handle potential coalition talks. If they can hold together through the autumn, Japaridze says, Georgian Dream might learn its lesson at the ballot box.