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Handout photo dated January 26, 2023 shows Air Force 33rd Search and Rescue Squadron preparing to land aboard an Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold (DDG 65) in the Philippine Sea.
After China pretends to invade Taiwan, US & Philippines rehearse war against ... China
The US and the Philippines have held annual Balikatan (shoulder to shoulder) joint military drills since 1991. But this year's exercise is a bigger deal than usual.
For one thing, the drills — which kicked off Tuesday — involve more than 17,000 troops from the two countries, making them the largest ever. For another, they are partly being held in disputed waters in the South China Sea — claimed almost entirely by Beijing and partly by Manila.
More importantly, the war games come on the heels of China's own military muscle-flexing near Taiwan,rehearsing an invasion of the self-ruled island as payback for Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's hangout with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California.
For the US — which rejects Beijing’s expanded maritime sovereignty — the drills aim to send China a clear message: We will defend our allies as you move to militarize the South China Sea.
What’s more, Uncle Sam wants the region to remain free for navigation and seaborne trade. That’s why the US Navy patrols the disputed waters despite the risk of running into Chinese “research” vessels.
But for China, the exercises are proof that the Americans are pushing the Filipinos to help them contain Chinese military power in the region. (For the first time, this year’s war games feature target practice on a mock fishing boat, Beijing’s shadow navy of "little blue men" in the disputed waters.)
The odd man out is the Philippines, once again left walking a tightrope between the US and China.
Since his May 2022 election, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. — having seen the writing on the wall of rising anti-China sentiment among Filipinos under Rodrigo Duterte, his pro-China predecessor — has been inching closer to Washington. One important recent gesture was granting the US military access to army camps in the northern part of the archipelago, very close to Taiwan.
Yet, Marcos previously made a much-publicized visit to China, the Philippines’ top trading partner and source of foreign investment. The upshot is that with a weak economy and an even weaker military, the country can't afford to lose either the US security umbrella or the ability to do biz with China.
Meanwhile, the South China Sea remains a flashpoint for great-power competition in the Indo-Pacific. And growing US-China tensions over Taiwan will only raise the stakes in the future.
The Pentagon is seen from the air in Washington, U.S., March 3, 2022, more than a week after Russia invaded Ukraine.
What We’re Watching: Suspected US intel leaks, peace talks for Yemen, Lula talks trade with Xi
A murky document mystery
Some months ago, mysterious documents began showing up on websites used mainly by online gamers that appear to reveal top-secret US government information on the war in Ukraine and other sensitive topics. In particular, they include what seem to be maps of Ukrainian air defenses and an analysis of a secret plan by US ally South Korea to covertly deliver 330,000 rounds of ammunition to Ukraine to boost its widely expected spring counteroffensive.
Once noticed, copies of the documents made their way into mainstream media and triggered investigations by the Pentagon and the US Justice Department over possible leaks. Ukrainian officials say the documents may have come from Russian spies. Others say someone inside the US intel community must have leaked them. Some experts warn the documents may be fakes.
Given the stakes for Ukraine and for US relations with allies, this isn’t a story anyone should ignore. But the most important questions – Who did this? Why? Are the documents real? Will they change the war? If so, how? – can’t yet be answered. And like the mystery surrounding the explosion that damaged the Nord Stream pipeline last September, they may never be answered. We’ll keep watching.
Will peace finally come to Yemen?
A Saudi delegation is visiting Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, for talks with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in hopes of ending the nine-year conflict that’s turned Yemen into one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
The war began in 2014 when Houthis, who are Shiite, overthrew the Saudi-backed Sunni government and took over the capital. Violence has since plagued the country, and the conflict has broadly been seen as a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Fighting has also spilled over into Saudi territory, where rebels have targeted the kingdom’s oil infrastructure.
The talks – mediated by Oman – come after both sides agreed last month to renew a previously expired ceasefire. Still, several thorny issues remain, including how to secure oil fields in rebel-held areas, as well as the easing of blockades on Sanaa’s airport (by the Saudis) and Red Sea ports (by Houthis) that are obstructing the flow of humanitarian aid to 21.6 million people.
Hopes of a resolution in Yemen come after Tehran and Riyadh recently agreed to renew diplomatic ties after a seven-year rupture. Expectations of a cessation of hostilities, however, have been raised and dashed in the past.
Lula to talk trade in China
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva is heading to China on Tuesday for a four-day summit. The trip was originally planned for March but was postponed after Lula contracted pneumonia.
Lula lands in Shanghai before heading to Beijing, where he’ll meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Brazilian leader is being accompanied by more than 250 business leaders, nearly a third of whom belong to Brazil’s agricultural sector. His entourage tells us that these meetings will be about trade, trade, and more trade. Lula will also invite President Xi to Brazil to view projects for which Brazil is seeking Chinese investment.
After Lula’s last visit to Beijing in 2009, China became Brazil’s top trading partner, causing demand for its soybeans, iron ore, and oil to skyrocket and fueling an economic boom for Brazil. By 2021, Brazil was China’s largest destination for foreign direct investment. Now in his third term, Lula is facing a tough economic and political landscape and hopes to revive his stagnating economy by diversifying Brazil’s trade relationship with China.
The two men will also discuss the war in Ukraine, with Lula believing he can help negotiate peace.
But Brazil is already navigating tensions between the US and China. In February, Lula met with US President Joe Biden to affirm his relationship with Brazil’s most important regional security partner. Meanwhile, China is hoping that by strengthening its relationship with Brazil it can boost its influence in Latin America and weaken Brazil’s ties to the US. The meetings come just days after China and Brazil agreed to ditch the US dollar and exchange their currencies directly. So in China, Lula must tread carefully to stay in both Biden's and Xi’s good graces.
The Graphic Truth — US vs. China: Who invests more in Africa?
Twenty years ago, the US was the largest single outside investor in Africa, by a huge margin. How times have changed. After peaking in 2009, American foreign direct investment — an ownership stake in a company or project made by an investor, company, or government from another country — was overtaken by China, now the biggest source of FDI on the continent. In recent years the US has narrowed the gap some, particularly as Beijing has become both warier of the bad optics of so-called “debt-trap diplomacy” and more focused on its own economic challenges at home. Here we look at net FDI flows from the US and China to Africa since 2003.