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Macron celebrates his victory during a rally at the Champ de Mars in Paris.
Macron beats Le Pen, encore
Sometimes the polls aren’t wrong. On Sunday, centrist French President Emmanuel Macron defeated far-right hopeful Marine Le Pen in a rerun of their 2017 presidential runoff.
Macron is the first incumbent re-elected in France since 2002, when Jacques Chirac routed Le Pen’s father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. The president is projected to capture 58.8% of the vote once all the ballots are counted, compared to 41.2% for Le Pen, according to polling agency Ipsos. That’s slightly more than the polls predicted but a much narrower margin than in 2017.
In the end, most French voters picked Macron’s promise of an open France, a strong EU, and more responsible public spending over Le Pen’s vision of getting tough on immigration, weakening the bloc, and having a France-first welfare state.
Still, the fact that more than 40% of the electorate was on board with Le Pen's policies, which would have been at odds with both Brussels and the French constitution, cannot be ignored. Her political ideas are not going away, regardless of whether she decides to run for the top office again in 2027.
Macron’s victory avoids a political earthquake in Europe while war is being waged on its eastern flank. One world leader who was hoping for an upset was Vladimir Putin, whom Le Pen embraced in the past but has notably tried to distance herself from as part of her rebrand to court moderate voters. Now, the Russian president knows that Europe will remain united in their stand against Russia’s war in Ukraine — the lone exception being Viktor Orbán, Putin’s recently re-elected buddy in Budapest.
What comes next for the French president? “This is a great triumph for Emmanuel Macron,” tweeted Mujtaba Rahman, Eurasia Group's top Europe analyst. Rahman believes the incumbent’s better-than-expected result over Le Pen gives him momentum for his La République en Marche party to win a majority in June’s parliamentary election.Campaign posters of President Emmanuel Macron and presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
What if Le Pen leads France?
The results are in from the first round of France’s nail-biter of a presidential election. Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally, has come in four points behind the incumbent, President Emmanuel Macron, reaping 23.3% percent of the vote, according to Ifop, a pollster.
Meanwhile, France’s far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon came in third with 20% of the vote, while center-right candidate Valerie Pécresse, the first woman to head the party of Charles de Gaulle, flailed.
The world is now anxiously waiting to see what happens in two weeks’ time, when the French return to the polls for the second and final round of voting to decide whether Macron or Le Pen should be sent to the Élysée.
Le Pen, a veteran politician, has run for the presidency twice before, but her political career, it seems, has all been leading up to this moment. Indeed, she trails Macron by a few points, but the momentum is very much on the side of the 53-year old, whose “France first” message has resonated not only with tear-it-down populists, but with ordinary families angry about the soaring cost of living.
What would a Le Pen victory actually mean for France, Europe – and the world?
Le Pen: not great for French unity. Le Pen has worked hard to moderate her far-right sensibilities. She’s talked less about Muslims and banning headscarves in recent months, focusing more on the increasing price of milk and eggs.
Still, her domestic political priorities remain unchanged. Mujtaba Rahman, head of Eurasia Group’s Europe desk, says Le Pen "is no more moderate or reasonable today than she has been historically. She remains an extreme right force in French politics.”
The immediate stakes are extremely high for the European Union, which has experienced a renewed sense of purpose since the UK left the bloc in 2020 and especially in response to Russia’s bombardment of Ukraine.
Le Pen, a long-time euroskeptic, has tried to moderate her views to appeal to a Russian-weary French electorate that overwhelmingly supports EU efforts to aid Ukraine. Still, Le Pen is no fan of Brussels and maintains that the bloc’s central power should be diluted.
While she seems to have abandoned her previous call for France to leave the EU – dubbed Frexit – some believe Le Pen may be gunning for a more digestible overhaul of the relationship. Ben Judah, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, says Le Pen may pursue something similar to what the Poles have been doing. “What Poland is doing is attempting to renegotiate its relationship with the EU by insisting that national law is supreme over EU law,” he says.
What’s more, the stakes for the European single market are mammoth. The prospect of a Le Pen victory is a big blow for EU champions who have been buoyed by the EU’s renewed financial cohesion amid the pandemic, having overcome longtime sticking points to approve a robust economic recovery fund.
However, European heavyweights, like Germany, might reject sharing meaningful common debt with a France run by Le Pen, whose economic policy Judah describes as “gibberish.” If Le Pen gets in and implements her economic plan – which includes renegotiating a slate of free trade deals – this would mean that “making the euro a really strong, efficient currency is just going to be off the table” he says.
More broadly, a Le Pen victory in France, the world’s sixth-largest economy, would send a worrying message to the world about the country’s commitment to liberal values.
Le Pen comes from a xenophobic tradition established by her father Jean-Marie, a prominent racist and antisemite. Many members of her party are racist, and she has been accused of harboring anti-Muslim sentiments. Even though Le Pen has tried to detoxify her image, many older voters – and global observers – aren’t buying the rebrand.
A Le Pen presidency would have a big impact on how France “is seen by American liberals, by Arab and non-white countries, and across the Muslim world,” Judah says. This, he adds, could destroy the credibility built up by Macron, who has tried to position himself as Angela Merkel’s successor as the leader of Europe in recent months.
The Ukraine factor. Macron has long been a proponent of greater European strategic autonomy and in recent months has called for a united Europe to engage with Russia separately from the broader US-NATO dialogue. His shuttle diplomacy with Vladimir Putin has boosted his image as an international statesman.
Le Pen, on the other hand, is avowedly anti-NATO and says she wants to pull French troops and planning personnel away from the alliance.
This potential shakeup in the EU’s second-wealthiest country also comes as Washington and Brussels are trying to intensify the sanction campaign against Russia. Macron, for his part, has called for fresh sanctions targeting Russian oil and gas imports. But would a President Le Pen, a long-time Putin sycophant, refuse to implement these sanctions? Would she try to undo existing sanctions? Will she cease France's military aid to Ukraine?
Given Le Pen’s insistence that France must resume its alliance with Moscow, it’s fair to assume that the answer to at least some of these questions is “yes.”
France's presidential election tightening as first round begins
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Delphi, Greece:
What's happening with the sanctions and help to Ukraine?
Well, it's moving forward quite heavily, both with now deliveries of more substantial weapons systems, and the key thing, of course, is going to be what happens with the imports of gas if that is stopped. Coal, oil, that's less important, but gas, that's the key thing. And I think we are moving in that direction.
What about the French presidential elections?
Well, we got the first round coming up on Sunday. I think Macron is going to win, but it looks like it's going to be tight. And the drama is going to be more substantial prior to the second decisive round on 25th of April. It's still likely to be Macron, but less money on that than was the case a month ago.
Zelensky addresses the UN Security Council in a video message
What We’re Watching: Zelensky at the UN, French race tightens, Sri Lankan crisis worsens
Zelensky wants justice over Russian war crimes
In his first address to the UN Security Council, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday said Russians accused of war crimes in Ukraine must be brought to justice, noting that the atrocities in Bucha and elsewhere are the worst Europe has seen since World War II. Prior to Zelensky’s speech, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance is working with the UN-backed International Criminal Court to investigate the alleged war crimes. The International Court of Justice has already ordered Russia to cease and desist but has no authority to enforce its ruling. But some argue that pursuing indictments during ongoing conflicts can frustrate efforts toward peace agreements, thereby raising the risk of further atrocities. Meanwhile, the mounting allegations are putting more pressure on Western powers to slap harsher sanctions on Moscow — perhaps even targeting Russian oil and coal by the EU.
French presidential race tightens
Don’t look now, but a growing number of French voters aren’t ready to give Emmanuel Macron a second term as Président de la République. Ahead of first-round presidential voting on Sunday, new polls are giving the campaign of right-wing populist and political veteran Marine Le Pen a jolt of electricity. For a potential second-round matchup, one poll has Macron with just a six-point lead over Le Pen. Another poll published Monday put Macron’s lead in a potential runoff at just three points. (In 2017, he bested her in the second round by 32 points.) The war in Ukraine has given Macron an opportunity to play the global statesman and to avoid the rough and tumble of a campaign. He even skipped a televised debate. But some voters may want to see him work a bit harder. If Le Pen has a strong showing in Sunday’s first round, expect rising anxiety about what a victory for Le Pen, who has expressed past admiration for Vladimir Putin, might mean for the war. Though she has called Russia’s invasion a violation of international law, she says it has only “partly changed” her view of Putin.
"Go Gota Go" in Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka's economic crisis may soon mean it’s game over for embattled President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. In recent days, he’s lost his majority in parliament after more than 40 MPs ditched the ruling coalition. His new finance minister quit a day after being sworn in, and the central bank chief resigned right when he was set to announce an interest rate hike to save the country's currency and tame sky-high inflation. What's more, opposition parties declined to form a national unity government because it would still be led by Rajapaksa with his brother. The family has become politically toxic, with most Sri Lankans blaming them for mismanagement that has caused the country's worst-ever economic and debt crisis, leaving state coffers empty of foreign currency to pay for basic imports such as fuel. Chanting "Go Gota Go," protesters are defying the state of emergency and curfew to demand that Rajapaksa step down. The president is hanging on by a thread and is still backed by the powerful army. Will the military keep him in power at all costs?Macron shakes hands with Putin, at the French president's summer retreat.
Putin invades the year’s big elections
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is shifting politics inside every major country in the world. Here are four countries holding big elections this year — with details on how Vladimir Putin’s war is making a difference in Hungary, France, Brazil, and the United States.
Hungary — parliamentary elections on April 3
No EU head of government has friendlier ties with Putin than Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. But Russia’s invasion, says Mujtaba Rahman, head of Eurasia Group’s Europe desk, “is politically problematic for Orbán because it rekindles memories of the 1956 Soviet invasion for both pro- and anti-Orbán voters.” On the eve of what’s expected to be a close election, Hungary’s prime minister has had to strike a delicate balance on the war.
On the one hand, despite Hungary’s energy dependence on Russia, Orbán decided quickly after the invasion to back EU sanctions on Russia. On the other, fear of losing crucial pro-Russia voters to far-right election rivals encouraged him to oppose some EU plans, such as shipments of European weapons to Ukraine’s army.
In the end, Orbán’s dexterity in managing this crisis may boost his party’s chances next month.
France — presidential election on April 10 and April 24
Putin has done France’s President Emmanuel Macron an enormous favor. By starting a war during France’s six-month presidency of the Council of the European Union, he’s handed Macron the chance to play crucial European statesman rather than presidential candidate urgently hustling for votes.
The war has also sucked oxygen from the campaign of his rival, far-right favorite Marine Le Pen, who has “an embarrassing history of admiration for Vladimir Putin,” according to Rahman. In fact, her party courted controversy by borrowing money from a Russian-owned bank in 2014, when the National Rally Party was opposing Western sanctions against Russia over its seizure of Crimea.
Macron has now become a strong favorite to win a second-round victory on April 24.
Brazil — general election on October 2
Further afield, the war in Ukraine creates risks for Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro. Problem one is that he made a considerable show of visiting Putin in Moscow just days before the invasion to express “solidarity with Russia.” For some Brazilian voters, that’s an embarrassing reminder of Bolsonaro’s own controversial military background and hyper-macho political rhetoric. After the invasion, the president insisted that Brazil would remain “neutral,” alienating some voters on both sides.
But the Russian invasion’s biggest impact on Brazilian politics this year will be economic. In presidential polls, Bolsonaro now trails his main rival, former president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, in part because high inflation (10% in 2021) has taken a toll on the purchasing power of millions of voters. A lasting global inflation shock, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, will undermine his chances of catching up.
US — midterm elections on November 6 and the 2024 presidential election
A recent poll found that 74% of American respondents said Russia’s invasion was unjustified, and 76% expressed a negative personal view of Vladimir Putin. But this is a question on which Democrats are far more united than Republicans, casting a shadow over GOP expectations of victory in November.
That vote is still eight months away, and President Biden’s relative unpopularity probably will deliver Congress to the GOP. By summer, Russia’s role in high gasoline prices will matter less than it does today to frustrated consumers.
But what about the 2024 presidential election? Just 3% of that poll’s respondents who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 were willing to say Biden is “doing a better job leading his country” than Putin is. If Trump runs again, his continuing public admiration for Putin — the former president called the Ukraine invasion “genius” — could cost him considerable support. After all, 58% of Republican voters back Ukraine at the moment.
Even if Trump settles for the role of GOP kingmaker, his support of Putin could divide both Republican leaders and voters — and alienate some GOP-leaning independents. Especially in the highly likely event that Russia features prominently in election-year headlines.
Russian airborne troops soldiers at Chkalovsky Airfield waiting to depart to join the Collective Security Treaty Organisation's peacekeeping force in Kazakhstan.
What We’re Watching: Russians in another Stan, Djokovic drama, Mali sanctions, Europe vs anti-vaxxers
Russia in Kazakhstan. Anti-government clashes in Kazakhstan have gotten increasingly violent, with the death toll now reaching 164 after President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev issued a controversial “shoot without warning” order on Friday. What started as a demonstration against a fuel price hike has since turned into a movement protesting government corruption and authoritarianism — with regional implications. Enter Russia, which responded to the pro-Russia Tokayev’s request for help with about 2,500 “peacekeeping” troops and future deployments being planned under the aegis of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the former Soviet Union’s version of NATO. This comes as Moscow has recently amassed 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine. The Russians will on Monday start talks with NATO and the US about the ongoing situation with Ukraine, but also discuss enhancing security plans with Kazakhstan, whose northern territory is claimed by Moscow. Russia has been clear about what it wants in Ukraine — for NATO to stop expanding further eastward into the former Soviet states. But what does Vladimir Putin want exactly in Kazakhstan, one of the region’s most energy-rich countries?
No-vac Djokovic’s next moves. It wasn’t a political case at first, but it’s become one, fast. Novak Djokovic, the world’s top-seeded men’s tennis player, came to Oz with ambitions to win his 21st grand slam title. But after being denied entry for being unvaccinated and questions about his medical exemption from previously getting COVID, Djokovic took the Australian government to court, challenging deportation. A judge on Monday reinstated his visa, but again the case isn’t going to be open and shut — or game, set and match. The federal government can still cancel the visa for a second time, and in that case Nole will be banned from Australia, and the Australian Open, for three years. Meanwhile, Djokovic, a vaccine skeptic, is set to leave the rundown hotel where he was staying alongside many asylum-seekers also awaiting their future. Still, the question remains: is arguably tennis’ GOAT a victim of politicization, or just entitled? The Australian government’s final decision must be announced by Tuesday if the Serbian star is to play in Melbourne.
ECOWAS vs Mali. In response to Mali delaying its planned election next month, the 15-member Economic Community of West African States has decided to close all borders with Mali and impose tough economic sanctions on non-essential financial transactions, and Malian state assets in West African banks. Mali has been run by a transitional civilian-military government — with the generals calling most of the shots — since an August 2020 coup, followed by a de-facto second power grab nine months later. ECOWAS met the first with a border closure and sanctions package, which it lifted when the junta agreed to share power with civilians and hold elections in early 2022. However, the bloc didn't act after the second coup, and was caught off-guard by the postponement. Mali’s generals, meanwhile, say they prioritize ensuring a peaceful election over a speedy one. No way, say Mali's neighbors, who want a vote ASAP because West Africa needs more stable governments, in part to fight jihadists that have taken control of vast swaths of the conflict-ridden Sahel region.
Political omicron in Europe. As the omicron variant continues to drive cases and hospitalizations up globally, new pandemic restrictions — including vaccine mandates — are stoking fresh political fights in Europe. In France, President Emmanuel Macron is facing strong backlash over his recent comments against anti-vaxxers (and refusal to walk them back). Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Paris on Saturday to protest against Macron’s plans to ban the unvaccinated from bars and restaurants. Macron may have science on his side, but he'll have to tread carefully because the French presidential election is only three months away, and the incumbent needs to maintain his lead over conservative challenger Valerie Pécresse. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic saw a similar mass rally in Prague to decry a vaccine mandate for everyone over 60 due to take effect in March. What's interesting here is that the new Czech government was against the plan when its parties were in the opposition, but now says it might keep the mandate due to omicron. Flip-flopping on such a polarizing issue is not a good start for a shaky coalition in a country with one of the EU's lowest rates of trust in government.
Kazakhstan unrest could affect Putin's view on Ukraine
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective from Europe:
What's happening in Kazakhstan?
Well, evidently rebellion, revolt, protest, massive threat of survival of the regime. And that's why Russia now are sending in troops. How will this affect Europe? See how it affects his attention towards Ukraine. He has to be worried when he's sitting in the Kremlin about the stability of the entire post-Soviet space. I think we're heading for dramatic weeks.
What does the French presidency of the European Union mean?
Well, lots of issues on the table and the French are going to be extremely, President Macron, extremely ambitious with different industrial policy and defense policy or whatever, geared very much to the French election campaign. So, you'll see a lot of initiatives coming out of the European Union and some of them might even turn into reality.
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What We're Watching: Turmoil in Kazakhstan, Macron targets anti-vaxxers, Haiti presidential murder probe
Kazakh political turmoil. “Dozens” of anti-government protesters have been killed by security forces in Kazakhstan, which has declared a state of emergency over the worst political crisis in a decade. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev sacked the entire government in response to widespread street protests, which started days ago over a planned fuel price hike. Since then, the demonstrations have morphed into wider outrage against an entrenched regime, in power since the Central Asian republic broke away from the USSR in 1991. Things are escalating rapidly in Almaty, the business capital, where demonstrators have reportedly set the presidential palace on fire. Tokayev — who took over in 2019 as the handpicked successor of former strongman Nursultan Nazarbayev — now says he may assume wider powers to end the crisis and asked Russia to send in “peacekeepers” under the umbrella of the CSTO, a Moscow-led grouping of former Soviet Republics. Vladimir Putin, always wary of popular uprisings in the Kremlin’s sphere of influence, is one of the two world leaders closely watching developments in Kazakhstan along with Xi Jinping, given that China is thirsty for Kazakh oil, gas, and minerals.
Macron wants to make the unvaccinated miserable. French President Emmanuel Macron is in hot water after saying he wants to make life difficult for unvaccinated people (he used the French word emmerder, which translates to “piss off” or “hassle.”) The unrefined comment comes as omicron cases are surging in France, while hospitalizations are also steadily rising. As the public health situation deteriorates — and the collective appetite for lockdowns wanes — the French parliament is set to pass a bill that would tighten requirements for the health pass system, so that proof of a negative test will no longer be enough to enter public places like restaurants, bars, and museums. While France has a solid vaccination rate — 73 percent of the population is fully vaxxed — a very vocal vaccine-hesitant constituency has rallied against government containment measures. Naturally, Macron’s political opponents used the unfolding scandal to smear the president just three months out from a tighter-than-expected presidential election: far-right hopeful Marine Le Pen accused the incumbent of “continuing his policy of division.” It’s unclear if this mini-scandal will have real political implications, but Macron — who in the past has been accused of being an aloof elitist detached from real people — can hardly afford another misstep as he tries to maintain a steady lead in the polls.
US charges suspect in killing of Haitian president. Six months after Haiti's President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in his bed in the middle of the night, the first suspect has been arrested by US officials and charged in an American court. Mario Antonio Palacios, a former Colombian soldier, was arrested in Jamaica and flown to Panama, from where he was extradited to the US. (America has jurisdiction over the proceedings because Haiti says the operation was largely planned and financed in Florida.) Indeed, the FBI has been helping Haitian authorities — who lack resources and institutional backing — to investigate the attack, which has plunged the Caribbean country further into chaos and lawlessness. If convicted, Palacios could face a life sentence. But operatives involved in the plot — many of whom are former Colombian military — say they were deceived by a Florida-based security company, which originally trained them to kidnap the former president, not kill him. At least 18 Colombians believed to be involved in the magnicide remain in prison in Port-au-Prince, as well as dozens of Haitians, including a US physician of Haitian origin believed to be the mastermind of the entire plot to take out Moïse.