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Migrants use their phones to access the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) in a shelter near the US-Mexico border in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico February 24, 2023.
Hard Numbers: Glitchy US border app, Japanese no-show canned, Paris stinks, Argentina’s inflation hits triple digits
2.5: A new US government app meant to speed the processing of asylum-seekers and other migrants arriving from Mexico has a rating of just 2.5 stars on Google play. Small wonder, given that the app is reportedly glitchy, difficult to use, and creates opportunities for scammers to prey on migrants and their families.
7: WFH FTW? Not in Japan’s parliament. After failing to show up to work a single time in seven months, Japanese MP Yoshikazu Higashitani was expelled from parliament on Tuesday. Higashitani, a YouTube star who specializes in celebrity gossip under the name GaaSyy, was elected last July as a member of a party whose only issue is to reform Japan’s public broadcast system.
5,600:Paris le Pew! Some 5,600 tons of stinking, uncollected trash have piled up in the City of Light, the result of an ongoing strike by public sanitation workers opposed to the government’s controversial plan to raise the pension age.
100: Argentina’s annual inflation rate has hit 100%, cracking triple digits for the first time since way back in 1991, when, to put things in proper perspective, Maradona was still with Napoli. The country’s soaring prices are a major concern for voters ahead of what is sure to be a super-contentious election this fall.Protesters attend a demonstration against the French government's pension reform plan in Paris.
What We’re Watching: French pension strikes, Nord Stream saboteurs, a centrist battle in the US, Canadian elections vs. China
French workers vs. Macron
“Pas question!” (no way!) is what over a million striking French workers told President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday as they tried to bring the country to a screeching halt over his controversial plan to raise the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64. In what was billed as the biggest strike to date against the pension reforms, protesters shut down schools, stopped transportation, and even blocked fuel deliveries. And they seem to have the people on their side – two-thirds of the French support their cause. But Macron has made the reform his No. 1 policy priority, seeing it as the only feasible way to ensure that the pension system stays solvent in a country with an aging population. And despite the pushback from the streets, Macron has the votes in parliament to ram through the changes. He’ll likely wait for the streets to die down a bit before he signs the reform bill – but sign it he will.
Nord Stream plot twist: Was it … Ukrainians?
It’s been five months since somebody blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines linking Russia to Europe, and we still don’t know who did it. Was it Russia trying to freeze Europe into submission? Was it the US trying to isolate Russia? Or, was it, as Ian Bremmer theorized a few weeks ago, the Ukrainians trying to remove Russia’s leverage over Germany? Well, The New York Times on Tuesday reported that US officials have intelligence suggesting it was a “pro-Ukrainian group” – most likely including Ukrainian or Russian nationals – that had no official ties to the government of Volodymyr Zelensky. We’re watching to see where this latest plot twist leads, and whether the suspicion of Ukrainian involvement — official or not — affects both German and broader European unity in supporting Kyiv.
Check out Ian's response to yesterday's report here.
The centrist civil war
For years, public opinion polls have found that a majority of Americans want to see the emergence of a “third party” to challenge the two-party political dominance of Democrats and Republicans. A number of organizations have proposed, or offered themselves, as alternatives to the status quo. One is called “No Labels,” a “movement” of Democrats and Republicans who promise to look for bipartisan solutions to national problems. There is also “Third Way,” a self-described “national think tank that champions modern center-left ideas.” Third Way warned this week that a plan by No Labels to boost a “unity ticket” in the 2024 presidential election will take centrist votes away from Joe Biden and help re-elect Donald Trump, an outcome both groups say the nation must avoid. In other words, two groups that say they want to bridge the gap between the two parties are now arguing over which is more likely to elect the candidate they agree is too “extreme.” This is one more measure of the resilience of American polarization.
Trudeau probes Chinese meddling
Well, this is awkward. Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has appointed an independent investigator to assess allegations that the Chinese government interfered in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 elections … to help his party win. The reports are sketchy so far, and the interference was not so large that Beijing affected the electoral results. Still, Trudeau is in a tight spot. A fully transparent investigation could reveal details that are politically toxic to his government – particularly amid allegations that his office ignored reports of interference in 2019. But any evidence of soft-pedaling the probe could backfire in a similar way. For now, his government is projecting an air of total transparency in dealing with the story, but opposition leaders have already alleged a cover-up and are calling for a public hearing. Canada is hardly the only country concerned about alleged election meddling by China. Intelligence services in the US and Australia have voiced similar concerns, raising questions about how safe future elections will be.
A protester near the Invalides during a demonstration against the government's pension reform plan in Paris
What We’re Watching: An encore for French protesters, Zelensky’s growing wish list, Weah’s reelection bid
Round Two: French pension reform strikes
For the second time in a month, French workers held mass protests on Tuesday against the government’s proposed pension reform, which would raise the minimum retirement age from 62 to 64. Organized by the country’s eight big trade unions, authorities say as many as 1.27 million protesters hit the streets nationwide, bringing Paris to a standstill and closing schools throughout France. (Unions say the number was higher.) Meanwhile, President Emmanuel Macron is sticking to his guns, saying that incrementally raising the national retirement age by 2030 is crucial to reducing France’s ballooning deficit. (Currently, 14% of France’s public spending goes toward its pension program – the third-highest of any OECD country.) But for Macron, this is about more than just economics; his political legacy is on the line. Indeed, the ideological chameleon came to power in 2017 as a transformer and tried to get these pension reforms done in 2019, though he was ultimately forced to backtrack. But as Eurasia Group Europe expert Mujtaba Rahman points out, protesters’ “momentum is the key” and could determine whether legislators from the center-right back Macron or get swayed by the vibe on the street. This would force him to go at it alone using a constitutional loophole, which never makes for good politics. More demonstrations are planned for Feb.7 and Feb. 11.“To give me liberty, give me jets”
“Thanks for the tanks. Now we need jets.” That’s the message Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has for his country’s Western allies. Poland and the Baltics have been predictably supportive. The French, British, and Dutch have said “let’s discuss it.” Early indications from Washington and Berlin are less positive. Zelensky’s latest set of maximalist requests set off a lively debate within your GZERO team meeting, with compelling arguments on both sides. Argument 1: The guy is president of a country fighting a war for survival. It’s not his job to make life easy for American and European decision-makers; it’s to eject Russia from Ukraine, and he needs the best Western weapons to do that. Every day, innocent people in his country die. He should ask for more than everything he needs to make it stop. Argument 2: That’s all true, but there are already voters in the US and Europe who wonder how expensive (and dangerous) escalating support for Ukraine might become with a nuclear-armed power on the other side. Zelensky must understand that the elected leaders in these countries have to listen to these voters. If his demands seem exorbitant and unending, Zelensky might be doing more harm than good. We’ll be watching to see how the West responds to his latest ask.
Weah running for Liberian re-election
Former soccer star George Weah confirmed this week that he'll seek a second — and final — term as Liberia's president in the October election. Weah swept to power in 2018 after beating VP Joseph Boakai in a landslide, promising to rid the country of corruption. Almost five years later, though, graft remains widespread, with Liberia ranking 142nd out of 180 countries in Transparency International's 2022 corruption perceptions index, and last year the US slapped sanctions on Weah's own chief of staff over multiple graft scandals. The president has also come under fire for doing little to address high inflation and food shortages related to Russia's war in Ukraine. More recently, Weah got flak for going on a two-month foreign trip — including a stop in Qatar to watch his son, Timothy, play for the US at the soccer World Cup — while most Liberians live in poverty. Still, Weah, the only African to win the coveted Ballon d'Or award for world's best player, has the one thing that all the opposition candidates lack: name recognition.
If you're a soccer fan and his name doesn't ring a bell, check out this FIFA video to discover how damn good Weah was in his prime.
A cross-industry strike movement brings together several thousand people in the streets of Lille, France.
What We’re Watching: Macron’s challenges, Xi’s power play, Iran’s scarfless athlete, Ethiopia’s gains in Tigray
Walkouts put Macron on the spot
France’s notoriously strike-o-phile public sector unions called a nationwide walkout on Tuesday, demanding higher wages in response to high inflation. The move, which mainly affects public transport and trains, comes amid weeks-long strikes by workers at major oil companies and nuclear plants. Although inflation in France has softened compared to other Western European nations, the country is still seeing its fastest price increases since the mid-1980s. For President Emmanuel Macron, who was reelected in April, the strikes and protests are a taste of the troubles he may face in the coming months. His 2023 budget is caught in a parliamentary crossfire as MPs on the right and left try to cram in more spending and larger tax increases than Macron wants. Meanwhile, winter is fast approaching, with uncertain consequences for the French public’s energy bills – though the Parisian parkour set is doing its graceful best to address the problem every night. And Macron is still aiming to push through a major — and deeply unpopular — pension reform before next spring.
Xi is planning a power play
Xi Jinping has been widely expected to use the 20th congress of China's ruling Communist Party this week to appoint his allies to most top positions. But now we're learning that he might do a bigger-than-expected overhaul by changing up four of the seven members of the elite Politburo Standing Committee. The biggest name likely to join China's highest decision-making body is Shanghai party boss Li Qiang, whom Xi wants to elevate despite bungling the city's COVID lockdown earlier this year. Li could even replace Li Keqiang (no relation) as premier — No. 2 rank in the CCP — instead of the (sort of) reform-minded Wang Yang, an earlier frontrunner for the gig. If Xi follows through on these plans, China's leader will face zero elite party resistance to pursue his agenda and stay in power indefinitely. But having a trusted lieutenant as premier might also encourage Xi to delegate some authority to Li, who would become more influential than his predecessor — crucial for managing the economy, traditionally the premier's job. Keep an eye out Sunday, when the seven most powerful men in China will walk onto the stage at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.
Headscarf head-scratcher as Iranian female climber returns home
Where is Elnaz Rekabi? That’s a question that has dominated headlines in recent days, after the female Iranian competitive climber drew global attention this weekend by competing in South Korea without a headscarf. Iranian women are required to wear the hijab in public — even when they compete abroad. Rekabi was feared to be missing, but the South Korean and Iranian governments had confirmed that she was en route home with her teammates. On Tuesday, an Instagram post on her account said her hijab fell off "inadvertently” during the competition and that it was a matter of “bad timing.” It’s unclear who wrote the message, or under what circumstances. But the incident coincides with her country being in the throes of protests over the in-custody death of a woman who was arrested for having her hair uncovered. And it echoes the 2021 controversy surrounding Chinese tennis star Peng Shuai, who disappeared for weeks after accusing a high-ranking Chinese official of sexual assault. Hundreds of Rekabi’s supporters greeted her with cheers when the athlete arrived in Tehran early Wednesday.
A new phase in Ethiopia's civil war?
Almost two years into its war with the independent Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Ethiopia’s central government has taken control of a key city in the northern Tigray region. Shire, home to around 160,000 people, many of whom fled conflict in other parts of Tigray, is a strategic win that could help the government make inroads toward Mekelle, the Tigrayan capital. The city also has an airport that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may be hoping his forces can use as a launchpad for drone strikes. Peace talks under the auspices of the African Union were recently postponed due to logistical issues; both sides had reportedly agreed to attend, but there are doubts over the political will to make progress. On Monday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said the situation is “spiraling out of control” and called on both sides to back down. A government blockade has long prevented crucial humanitarian aid from getting through to desperate Tigrayans – with a staggering 89% of its 6 million people lacking consistent access to food. Since fighting began in late 2020, both sides have been accused of human rights abuses. The US, which has brokered several ceasefires that ultimately collapsed, says it backs the AU’s plan for talks, but critics question whether the union can really broker peace.This article comes to you from the Signal newsletter team of GZERO Media. Sign up today.