Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres ahead of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 16, 2024.
Trump looms large over G20 Summit
What’s on the menu? Outgoing US President Joe Biden, together withUK PM Keir Starmer, are pushing for additional aid to Ukraine amid Russia’s latest missile barrage and North Korea’s troop deployment in Russia. As for Russian President Vladimir Putin, he made a point of skipping the gathering, sending Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov instead.
On climate change, with COP29 climate talks deadlocked in Azerbaijan, UN Chief Antonio Guterres called on the G20, responsible for 80% of global emissions, to step up. But the fly in the ointment may be Trump ally and climate skeptic, Argentinian President Javier Milei. French President Emmanuel Macronmet with Milei ahead of the summit in an effort to get Argentina to uphold the Paris Agreement, which the US is expected to exit again under Trump.
A spicy start. Brazil’s first lady, “Janja” Lula da Silva, sparked headlines at a G20 social event Saturdaywhen she quipped, “I’m not afraid of you, f**k you, Elon Musk,” while giving a talk on social media regulation. Brazil suspended Musk’s X platform earlier this year for ignoring court orders to block accounts accused of spreading fake news and hate messages. Musk responded online by predicting that her husband, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, would lose the upcoming Brazilian election.
For more on what’s expected from the G20 summit, check out our Q&A with Eurasia Group expert Julia Thomsonhere.A member of the cleaning crew walks past a G20 Summit sign outside the Museum of Modern Art, the venue of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 14, 2024.
Viewpoint: G20 leaders grapple with global inequality in Trump's shadow
Amid geopolitical tensions fanned by wars in Europe and the Middle East and Donald Trump’s reelection in the US, world heads of state will gather in Rio de Janeiro for the G20 Leaders’ Summit from Nov. 18-19. They will discuss proposals to combat global inequality and climate change and try to agree on a common position toward the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza in a carefully worded closing statement. Following the summit, Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host China’s Xi Jinping on a state visit in Brasilia, where the two will announce a series of partnerships in trade and investment.
We sat down with Eurasia Group expert Julia Thomson to learn more about this year’s G20 Summit.
What items would you highlight on the agenda?
Brazil, which holds the G20’s rotating presidency this year, tried to keep divisive geopolitical issues out of the subject matter meetings held in preparation for the summit, allowing for the approval of communiques with policy recommendations on a wide range of issues. I think those related to global inequality, a priority issue for the Brazilian presidency, are likely to get the most attention when the heads of state meet. There are two main proposals: the creation of a new tax on the super-wealthy and the new launch of a Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty.
There is not much consensus yet about the tax – what the rate would be, how it would be levied – but the Brazilian presidency considers it a victory to have gotten the issue on the agenda and thinks the proposal can be fleshed out in the coming years. With the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, Brazil aims to export ideas such as the Bolsa Familia program of cash transfers that have been successful at reducing hunger in Brazil. Thirty-one countries have already signed on to the initiative and another 27 have asked to join.
What impact will Trump’s election have on the summit?
The impact will be greatest on the discussion of climate and sustainability policies, another one of Brazil’s priority areas. Brazil and other emerging market countries have been pressing for assistance in financing climate change mitigation efforts from the wealthy industrialized countries that bear more responsibility for the carbon emissions causing global warming. That already fraught conversation will become much more difficult with Trump, a noted climate skeptic, poised to assume the presidency of the world’s largest economy and second-largest carbon emitter next year. I understand that Lula has been updating his planned speech at the summit to reflect this reality. A silver lining for Brazil is that South Africa, another leading global south country, will assume the G20 presidency next year, so the work done this year on this issue will likely continue.
What do you expect G20 leaders to say about the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza?
Drafting the final communique, which will have to mention these issues, will obviously present some challenges. There are stark divisions among G20 members about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. So, the most likely outcome is some vague language about the desirability of peace, as in previous years.
Outside of the G20 agenda, what else do you expect from this gathering of world leaders?
Lula will meet with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines, though Biden’s lame-duck status limits the potential for important outcomes from their conversation. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be at the summit, which creates the opportunity to advance the discussions on a trade pact between the EU and the Mercosur bloc of Latin American countries, which is expected to be finalized in the coming months. But there will be much more focus on Xi Jinping’s follow-up state visit to Brasilia. Chinese officials are expected to announce a slew of investments in sectors of the Brazilian economy ranging from satellites to logistics and infrastructure. Xi will be arriving in Brazil after a stop in Peru to attend the APEC Leaders’ Summit and the inauguration of the Chancay port, which is majority-owned by a Chinese company. There are plans to link this Pacific Ocean-facing port to Brazil to open up a lower-cost trade route to China.
So, it sounds like Lula is expecting some good outcomes. Will that help him politically?
There was more optimism at the beginning of the year, when Lula and his team did not foresee a Trump victory and there was this idea that geopolitical conflicts could have eased by now. Still, Brazil sees hosting the G20 as good for its foreign policy agenda, offering the opportunity to dialogue with the world’s main economies. Brazil sees itself as a non-aligned country striving to maintain good relations with the US, China, and Europe.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
The Global South is angry and mistrustful - Ian Bremmer
Frustrated with the lack of equitable access to vaccines, economic challenges, and climate change impacts while wealthier countries fail to fulfill their pledges, the Global South is angry and mistrustful, said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, during a Global Stage livestream event at UN headquarters in New York on September 22, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
"They feel like their agenda is irrelevant, that they are the takers, not in any way the collaborators or makers on the rule space and how we're going to deal with global governance challenges," Bremmer says.
Its leaders, however, have already started acting to position themselves as key players in the global governance discussions. Before the United Nations General Assembly, dozens of world leaders met for the first-ever Africa Climate Summit in a bid to take agency. They are set to advance the conversation at the COP28 in Dubai next month.
The discussion was moderated by Nicholas Thompson of The Atlantic. It was held by GZERO Media in collaboration with the United Nations, the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, and the Early Warnings for All initiative.
Dive into the conversation to learn about how countries like Brazil and India are shaping the AI space: Can data and AI save lives and make the world safer?
- What Africa has to say about climate change ›
- Ukraine’s war and the non-Western world ›
- The new BRICS expansion and the Global South agenda ›
- Vaccine diplomacy: China in the Global South ›
- AI for all: Leave no one behind, says Microsoft's Brad Smith - GZERO Media ›
- AI is an opportunity to build trust with the Global South: UN's Amandeep Singh Gill - GZERO Media ›
U.S. President Joe Biden holds a press conference in Hanoi, Vietnam.
What's Biden doing in Vietnam?
US President Biden flew to Vietnamon Sunday for a series of meetings with Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong. Speaking in Hanoi, Biden said the United States had “strengthened our ties with another critical Indo-Pacific partner,” after Vietnam officially elevated its relationship with Washington to the top level of the country’s three-tier hierarchy for bilateral relations, one also bestowed on both China and Russia.
Both countries loom large during Biden’s visit. While the US President denied the trip is about containing China, there is no doubt that increased US engagement aims to temper Beijing’s influence with Hanoi. And it’s not a one-way street: American overtures are welcome for economic and security reasons. Consider that American imports from Vietnam have nearly doubled since 2019, a bright spot while Vietnam’s overall exports fell for a sixth straight month in August due to softening global demand and China’s worsening economic outlook. Making matters worse for Hanoi, Beijing continues to boost its military presence in the South China Sea.
Crucially, Biden is scheduled to announce steps to help Vietnam diversify away from its reliance on Russian weapons. The timing is no accident: according to an internal Vietnamese document, Hanoi is planning to purchase arms from Russia to upgrade its military, through transfers at a joint Vietnamese and Russian oil venture in Siberia.
Still, US officials have warned that without significant overhauls of its infrastructure, there are limits on how much Vietnam’s economy can grow and rival China as a chief exporter of goods to the US and Europe.
U.S. President Joe Biden visits Raj Ghat memorial with Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi and other G20 leaders.
G20 achieves consensus, but stays cool on climate and Ukraine
The G20 summit in New Delhi wrapped up this weekend, with many praising Indian PM Narendra Modi for getting the G20 nations to agree on a consensus declaration after a month of intense negotiations.
What was agreed to? On climate, member nations agreed “that developing countries need to be supported in their transitions to low carbon/emissions" though it’s not exactly clear what this financing would look like. “Climate justice” remains a contentious issue, as evidenced by Modi’s comments earlier in the week accusing Western nations of forcing the developing world to pay the price for their rapid industrialization.
The G20 declaration also comes just days after the first Africa Climate Summit, where African states pitched themselves as the future of the green economy. In a further testament to the growing importance of Africa, Modi later announced the admission of the African Union as a permanent member of the G20.
But the biggest challenge to consensus was Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and the divide between many Western states and countries in the Global South that want to maintain solid ties with both the US and Russia. While the declaration recognized “the human suffering and negative added impacts of the war in Ukraine with regard to global food and energy security,” – a nod to African nations that have seen supplies disrupted by the conflict – Kyiv was furious that the statement didn’t directly address Russian atrocities.
Indeed, this was a significant departure from the G20’s consensus declaration last year in Bali, which referenced “Russian aggression” and described the conflict as a war “against” Ukraine, not “in” it. And despite the absence of President Putin at the summit, Moscow was notably pleased with the outcome: Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov praised the declaration, calling it "a step in the right direction.”
A win for Modi? One thing many observers agree on, however, was that the summit achieved India’s goal of boosting its global diplomatic bonafides, in part aimed at countering China’s influence in Asia and Africa. It helped, of course, that Xi Jinping also chose to stay home.
EU support for Ukraine holding up better than anyone expected
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Kyiv this week.
How is European support for the war in Ukraine holding up?
I think it's holding up fairly well. If you look at the latest figures that are out, it shows that total European support is substantially higher than American support. Of course, the American is more important, the US on the military side. But the European figures are higher and new multi tens of billion dollar packages coming from the European Union. It is holding up much better than anyone could have thought.
With both Putin and Xi Jinping absent, what's so significant and what's going to be the outcome of the G-20 summit in India?
Yes, both are absent. Putin for fairly obvious reasons. Xi Jinping, a lot of speculation why he is, for the first time ever, not part of the G-20 summit. It could be a snub to India. Could be also that he has domestic worries that it needs to take care of. But it will be important to see if they manage to bridge the gap over primarily the Russia war against Ukraine in the summit communique. A year ago in Indonesia, they managed to get to communicate together, but it's not been successful so far. So India is up for a big test of his global ambitions. Can they get something together from the G-20? Let's see.
- Ukraine’s long road to EU membership ›
- War, reforms & bureaucracy will decide Ukraine’s EU bid ›
- Xi no show at G20 ›
- Weekend at Modi's - GZERO Media ›
- Modi (not Xi) leads G-20 summit ›
- India's Modi seeks to burnish his legacy with G-20 presidency ›
- How Ukraine's EU membership would change Europe - GZERO Media ›
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, seen here addressing a G20 Development Ministers’ meeting in June, is set to host the group's summit in New Delhi this weekend.
Weekend at Modi’s
Well, this weekend is the moment Indian PM Narendra Modi has been waiting for, with world leaders set to gather for the G20 Summit in New Delhi.
For Modi, it’s a big chance to show the world that India is a rising and responsible power that can broker solutions to multilateral challenges — climate change, food security, inflation — while advocating, in particular, for the interests of the so-called “Global South” (an imperfect catchall for pretty much anything outside of Europe, the US, and Japan).
Modi’s mission. One of his main goals is to hammer out a plan in which rich countries and multilateral lenders make more capital available to developing countries that need it to finance green energy transitions and cope with the ravages of climate change.
But can he herd these cats? This year’s G20 has been fractious, with disagreements over how to describe the Ukraine war scuttling progress in other areas. So far, not a single G20 meeting has produced a joint communiqué.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's decision to skip the event also looms large. It was seen as a snub to New Delhi amid worsening China-India relations, but Modi will certainly want to show that he can shine for the Global South without sharing the spotlight with Beijing.
Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden is showing up with his own agenda, looking to convince the Global South that US-led financial institutions are better financial partners for economic development than Beijing. China’s deepening economic woes, and Xi's absence, may help Biden out.
The upshot: Modi in the middle. India's PM will have to work hard to broker consensus at a particularly divisive time. If this weekend’s meeting of leaders fails to issue a joint communiqué, it would be a G20 first — but certainly not one Modi will want to be remembered for.In blow to China, US secures closer partnership with Vietnam
On his way back from the G20 meeting in India, US President Joe Biden will stop off in Vietnam on Sept. 10 to seal an agreement to deepen US ties with the Southeast Asian country. The two former enemies will upgrade their bilateral relationship from a “comprehensive partnership” to a “comprehensive strategic partnership,” the highest level in Vietnam’s diplomatic hierarchy. This new top-tier diplomatic status places the US on par with China, Russia, India, and South Korea.
The change may pave the way for weapons sales and closer maritime cooperation. But possibly even more important at a time of intense US-China competition is the symbolism of Vietnam, a Chinese neighbor and fellow communist country, moving closer to the US. We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford to explain the motivations behind the deal for both sides.
For Vietnam, what is the importance of its relationship with the US?
Vietnam has long had very complicated relations with China, its giant northern neighbor. The two have close (and deepening) economic ties. Yet the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979 and ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea have fueled widespread anti-China sentiment among Vietnam’s population. Strengthening relations with the US, Japan, and other players are crucial to Hanoi’s geopolitical hedging strategy as well its (unsuccessful, so far) attempts to reduce its economic dependence on China.
In addition, Vietnam has long seen its ally Russia as a counterbalance to China, but Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has made it a less reliable partner and, more importantly, pushed it closer to Beijing. This increases the need for Vietnam to find other ways to hedge its China risk. Yet Hanoi will not move as far toward the US as some in Washington might hope – it will always seek to balance relations with the US and China.
How does Vietnam fit into the US’s strategy toward China and Asia more broadly?
Vietnam’s complex relationship with China as well as its popularity as a destination for firms from the US and other countries moving production out of China have made it increasingly important to Washington. The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy identifies Vietnam as one of the “leading regional partners” with which it wishes to deepen relations. Kurt Campbell, the US National Security Council’s coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, has referred to India and Vietnam as the two key “swing states” that will define the future of Asia.
While the focus on strengthening relations with Vietnam is not new in Washington, these efforts were undermined during Donald Trump’s administration by its greater focus on reducing the growing bilateral trade deficit, which included accusing Hanoi of currency manipulation. The US still has some trade-related concerns – including the likely rerouting of Chinese exports to the US via Vietnam – but Biden’s team is more focused on improving bilateral relations.
How does China view the deepening US-Vietnam ties?
Beijing will be concerned to see its southern neighbor granting Washington an upgrade in ties; in a sign of ruffled feathers, China dispatched Liu Jianchao, a senior official, to Hanoi this week where he met with Vietnam’s leader General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong. It’s important to note, however, that China’s own actions – that is, its increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea – contributed to this decision by Vietnam. This marks another self-inflicted wound for Beijing, alongside pushing the Philippines back into Washington’s orbit after a period of strained relations. Nevertheless, Hanoi will be wary of antagonizing Beijing and likely will agree to upgrade relations with several other countries as well (Australia, Singapore, and Indonesia) to dilute the impact of doing so with the US.
Biden’s trip to Vietnam follows his decision to skip the ASEAN summit earlier in the week – what does that say about the US’s strategy toward Southeast Asia?
Biden’s absence from the summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, exacerbated grumblings that the region appears to be a low priority for Washington. Yet it’s probably an indication that Washington sees investing in bilateral relations with key Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam as likely to deliver greater geopolitical returns than working with ASEAN as a bloc. (In this regard, Indonesia President Joko Widodo may take Biden’s absence as something of a personal slight, although he hosted the US president for the G20 Summit in Bali last year). In the Indo-Pacific more broadly, the US is focused on wooing India while reinforcing alliances with Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and promoting the Quad grouping of the US, Japan, India, and Australia.
That said, the US was still represented at the US-ASEAN Summit and East Asia Summit at a very senior level with the attendance of Vice President Kamala Harris. Arguably this is on a par with China’s representation: President Xi Jinping rarely attends the China-ASEAN Summit or East Asia Summit, usually delegating these to the premier instead, as occurred again this year.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group