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Graphic Truth: Which major economy has the lowest tariffs?
The Biden administration scaled back the EU tariffs but built on the China tariffs with additional measures. The tariffed share of US imports is now the highest it has been in decades, and Trump has threatened to boost tariffs even more.
But he’s starting from what is still, despite all that, a low base. The US has the second-lowest tariff barriers among the G20, the group of the world’s largest economies.In 2023, the trade-weighted average US tariff rate – a measure that takes into account the mix of goods a country actually imports – was just 2.2%. Only Japan’s was lower. Canada’s, by comparison, was 3.4%. The EU’s was 2.7%. And India’s was a whopping 12%. Here’s a look at how all 20 economies stack up when it comes to levies at the border.
Ian Bremmer: Trump is a symptom of a dysfunctional "G-Zero world"
In a political environment plagued by instability and polarization, who is poised to benefit? 2025 has kicked the G-Zero world into high gear: a world characterized by a growing vacuum in global governance. The anti-establishment wave and anti-incumbency trend that swept major democracies this past year underscore the dramatic shift. President-elect Donald Trump is the leading symptom, in many ways, the most powerful beneficiary of the G-Zero, argues Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report. He says that America’s embrace of a more “transactional worldview,” indifference to rule of law, and focus on rule of jungle will play to Trump’s hand and agenda. Bremmer adds that a G-Zero world and “a consolidated America First are the same thing, but jut from different perspectives. G-Zero is what happens with everybody else, and America First is what happens with the Americans.” With a tipsy-turvy year ahead, the world will be watching how Trump will navigate this moment in time.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 6 here.
- Three reasons for optimism in a leaderless world ›
- The rise of a leaderless world: Why 2025 marks a turning point, with Francis Fukuyama ›
- How Trump 2.0 could reshape US foreign policy, with the New York Times' David Sanger ›
- How will Trump 2.0 approach foreign policy? ›
- Quick Take: Trump's foreign policy legacy - the wins ›
- Trump's Davos address sets up big shifts in US strategy - GZERO Media ›
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets UN General-Secretary Antonio Guterres ahead of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 16, 2024.
Trump looms large over G20 Summit
What’s on the menu? Outgoing US President Joe Biden, together withUK PM Keir Starmer, are pushing for additional aid to Ukraine amid Russia’s latest missile barrage and North Korea’s troop deployment in Russia. As for Russian President Vladimir Putin, he made a point of skipping the gathering, sending Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov instead.
On climate change, with COP29 climate talks deadlocked in Azerbaijan, UN Chief Antonio Guterres called on the G20, responsible for 80% of global emissions, to step up. But the fly in the ointment may be Trump ally and climate skeptic, Argentinian President Javier Milei. French President Emmanuel Macronmet with Milei ahead of the summit in an effort to get Argentina to uphold the Paris Agreement, which the US is expected to exit again under Trump.
A spicy start. Brazil’s first lady, “Janja” Lula da Silva, sparked headlines at a G20 social event Saturdaywhen she quipped, “I’m not afraid of you, f**k you, Elon Musk,” while giving a talk on social media regulation. Brazil suspended Musk’s X platform earlier this year for ignoring court orders to block accounts accused of spreading fake news and hate messages. Musk responded online by predicting that her husband, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, would lose the upcoming Brazilian election.
For more on what’s expected from the G20 summit, check out our Q&A with Eurasia Group expert Julia Thomsonhere.A member of the cleaning crew walks past a G20 Summit sign outside the Museum of Modern Art, the venue of the G20 summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 14, 2024.
Viewpoint: G20 leaders grapple with global inequality in Trump's shadow
Amid geopolitical tensions fanned by wars in Europe and the Middle East and Donald Trump’s reelection in the US, world heads of state will gather in Rio de Janeiro for the G20 Leaders’ Summit from Nov. 18-19. They will discuss proposals to combat global inequality and climate change and try to agree on a common position toward the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza in a carefully worded closing statement. Following the summit, Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host China’s Xi Jinping on a state visit in Brasilia, where the two will announce a series of partnerships in trade and investment.
We sat down with Eurasia Group expert Julia Thomson to learn more about this year’s G20 Summit.
What items would you highlight on the agenda?
Brazil, which holds the G20’s rotating presidency this year, tried to keep divisive geopolitical issues out of the subject matter meetings held in preparation for the summit, allowing for the approval of communiques with policy recommendations on a wide range of issues. I think those related to global inequality, a priority issue for the Brazilian presidency, are likely to get the most attention when the heads of state meet. There are two main proposals: the creation of a new tax on the super-wealthy and the new launch of a Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty.
There is not much consensus yet about the tax – what the rate would be, how it would be levied – but the Brazilian presidency considers it a victory to have gotten the issue on the agenda and thinks the proposal can be fleshed out in the coming years. With the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, Brazil aims to export ideas such as the Bolsa Familia program of cash transfers that have been successful at reducing hunger in Brazil. Thirty-one countries have already signed on to the initiative and another 27 have asked to join.
What impact will Trump’s election have on the summit?
The impact will be greatest on the discussion of climate and sustainability policies, another one of Brazil’s priority areas. Brazil and other emerging market countries have been pressing for assistance in financing climate change mitigation efforts from the wealthy industrialized countries that bear more responsibility for the carbon emissions causing global warming. That already fraught conversation will become much more difficult with Trump, a noted climate skeptic, poised to assume the presidency of the world’s largest economy and second-largest carbon emitter next year. I understand that Lula has been updating his planned speech at the summit to reflect this reality. A silver lining for Brazil is that South Africa, another leading global south country, will assume the G20 presidency next year, so the work done this year on this issue will likely continue.
What do you expect G20 leaders to say about the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza?
Drafting the final communique, which will have to mention these issues, will obviously present some challenges. There are stark divisions among G20 members about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. So, the most likely outcome is some vague language about the desirability of peace, as in previous years.
Outside of the G20 agenda, what else do you expect from this gathering of world leaders?
Lula will meet with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines, though Biden’s lame-duck status limits the potential for important outcomes from their conversation. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be at the summit, which creates the opportunity to advance the discussions on a trade pact between the EU and the Mercosur bloc of Latin American countries, which is expected to be finalized in the coming months. But there will be much more focus on Xi Jinping’s follow-up state visit to Brasilia. Chinese officials are expected to announce a slew of investments in sectors of the Brazilian economy ranging from satellites to logistics and infrastructure. Xi will be arriving in Brazil after a stop in Peru to attend the APEC Leaders’ Summit and the inauguration of the Chancay port, which is majority-owned by a Chinese company. There are plans to link this Pacific Ocean-facing port to Brazil to open up a lower-cost trade route to China.
So, it sounds like Lula is expecting some good outcomes. Will that help him politically?
There was more optimism at the beginning of the year, when Lula and his team did not foresee a Trump victory and there was this idea that geopolitical conflicts could have eased by now. Still, Brazil sees hosting the G20 as good for its foreign policy agenda, offering the opportunity to dialogue with the world’s main economies. Brazil sees itself as a non-aligned country striving to maintain good relations with the US, China, and Europe.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
The Global South is angry and mistrustful - Ian Bremmer
Frustrated with the lack of equitable access to vaccines, economic challenges, and climate change impacts while wealthier countries fail to fulfill their pledges, the Global South is angry and mistrustful, said Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, during a Global Stage livestream event at UN headquarters in New York on September 22, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
"They feel like their agenda is irrelevant, that they are the takers, not in any way the collaborators or makers on the rule space and how we're going to deal with global governance challenges," Bremmer says.
Its leaders, however, have already started acting to position themselves as key players in the global governance discussions. Before the United Nations General Assembly, dozens of world leaders met for the first-ever Africa Climate Summit in a bid to take agency. They are set to advance the conversation at the COP28 in Dubai next month.
The discussion was moderated by Nicholas Thompson of The Atlantic. It was held by GZERO Media in collaboration with the United Nations, the Complex Risk Analytics Fund, and the Early Warnings for All initiative.
Dive into the conversation to learn about how countries like Brazil and India are shaping the AI space: Can data and AI save lives and make the world safer?
- What Africa has to say about climate change ›
- Ukraine’s war and the non-Western world ›
- The new BRICS expansion and the Global South agenda ›
- Vaccine diplomacy: China in the Global South ›
- AI for all: Leave no one behind, says Microsoft's Brad Smith - GZERO Media ›
- AI is an opportunity to build trust with the Global South: UN's Amandeep Singh Gill - GZERO Media ›
U.S. President Joe Biden holds a press conference in Hanoi, Vietnam.
What's Biden doing in Vietnam?
US President Biden flew to Vietnamon Sunday for a series of meetings with Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong. Speaking in Hanoi, Biden said the United States had “strengthened our ties with another critical Indo-Pacific partner,” after Vietnam officially elevated its relationship with Washington to the top level of the country’s three-tier hierarchy for bilateral relations, one also bestowed on both China and Russia.
Both countries loom large during Biden’s visit. While the US President denied the trip is about containing China, there is no doubt that increased US engagement aims to temper Beijing’s influence with Hanoi. And it’s not a one-way street: American overtures are welcome for economic and security reasons. Consider that American imports from Vietnam have nearly doubled since 2019, a bright spot while Vietnam’s overall exports fell for a sixth straight month in August due to softening global demand and China’s worsening economic outlook. Making matters worse for Hanoi, Beijing continues to boost its military presence in the South China Sea.
Crucially, Biden is scheduled to announce steps to help Vietnam diversify away from its reliance on Russian weapons. The timing is no accident: according to an internal Vietnamese document, Hanoi is planning to purchase arms from Russia to upgrade its military, through transfers at a joint Vietnamese and Russian oil venture in Siberia.
Still, US officials have warned that without significant overhauls of its infrastructure, there are limits on how much Vietnam’s economy can grow and rival China as a chief exporter of goods to the US and Europe.
U.S. President Joe Biden visits Raj Ghat memorial with Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi and other G20 leaders.
G20 achieves consensus, but stays cool on climate and Ukraine
The G20 summit in New Delhi wrapped up this weekend, with many praising Indian PM Narendra Modi for getting the G20 nations to agree on a consensus declaration after a month of intense negotiations.
What was agreed to? On climate, member nations agreed “that developing countries need to be supported in their transitions to low carbon/emissions" though it’s not exactly clear what this financing would look like. “Climate justice” remains a contentious issue, as evidenced by Modi’s comments earlier in the week accusing Western nations of forcing the developing world to pay the price for their rapid industrialization.
The G20 declaration also comes just days after the first Africa Climate Summit, where African states pitched themselves as the future of the green economy. In a further testament to the growing importance of Africa, Modi later announced the admission of the African Union as a permanent member of the G20.
But the biggest challenge to consensus was Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and the divide between many Western states and countries in the Global South that want to maintain solid ties with both the US and Russia. While the declaration recognized “the human suffering and negative added impacts of the war in Ukraine with regard to global food and energy security,” – a nod to African nations that have seen supplies disrupted by the conflict – Kyiv was furious that the statement didn’t directly address Russian atrocities.
Indeed, this was a significant departure from the G20’s consensus declaration last year in Bali, which referenced “Russian aggression” and described the conflict as a war “against” Ukraine, not “in” it. And despite the absence of President Putin at the summit, Moscow was notably pleased with the outcome: Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov praised the declaration, calling it "a step in the right direction.”
A win for Modi? One thing many observers agree on, however, was that the summit achieved India’s goal of boosting its global diplomatic bonafides, in part aimed at countering China’s influence in Asia and Africa. It helped, of course, that Xi Jinping also chose to stay home.
EU support for Ukraine holding up better than anyone expected
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Kyiv this week.
How is European support for the war in Ukraine holding up?
I think it's holding up fairly well. If you look at the latest figures that are out, it shows that total European support is substantially higher than American support. Of course, the American is more important, the US on the military side. But the European figures are higher and new multi tens of billion dollar packages coming from the European Union. It is holding up much better than anyone could have thought.
With both Putin and Xi Jinping absent, what's so significant and what's going to be the outcome of the G-20 summit in India?
Yes, both are absent. Putin for fairly obvious reasons. Xi Jinping, a lot of speculation why he is, for the first time ever, not part of the G-20 summit. It could be a snub to India. Could be also that he has domestic worries that it needs to take care of. But it will be important to see if they manage to bridge the gap over primarily the Russia war against Ukraine in the summit communique. A year ago in Indonesia, they managed to get to communicate together, but it's not been successful so far. So India is up for a big test of his global ambitions. Can they get something together from the G-20? Let's see.
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