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The implications of Senator Feinstein's passing
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC shares his perspective on US politics:
What are the implications of the death of US Senator Dianne Feinstein?
Senator Dianne Feinstein died this week at age 90. She was the longest serving female senator in history and a former mayor of San Francisco who was a trailblazer for women in politics in the United States. She had been sick for a little while, leading to calls from fellow Democrats for her to step down from her seat and allow somebody younger to take over both the Senate seat from California and her coveted seat on the Senate Judiciary Committee.
And after she announced her intention to retire this year, a number of California Democrats stepped up and said they were going to run for her seat. Governor Gavin Newsom, who clearly has national ambitions beyond California, has said he wants to fill her slot with an African-American and has said he intends to stay out of the primary race, which has caused some challenges for him, given that one of the candidates in the race is hoping to get a little benefit from being appointed to the seat.
One of the biggest questions is who will get her slot on the Judiciary Committee, which is now evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. If the slot isn't filled, then none of Biden's judicial nominees will be able to get out of the committee and get on to the floor. And while some Republicans have indicated that they are inclined to allow Democrats to fill the seat, not every Republican wants to do so because by blocking that seat from being filled, they can block all of Biden's judges.
So this could be an impasse that lasts for potentially a few weeks until there's likely to be a floor vote which would then appoint somebody new. But that could be one of the controversies coming out of this death.
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- Ian Explains: Trump's Republican competition ›
- Is Ron DeSantis ready for Trump? ›
- What We're Watching: California's governor faces the heat, worrying signs for Argentina's president, a Malaysian deal ›
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NATO summit, the future of US-China, Elon vs. Zuck, and more: Your questions, answered
It's summer in the Northern Hemisphere, which means: you get to ask me anything.
That's right — it's the time of the year when I take your best questions on anything politics, geopolitics, and personal. Want to know what I think about the 2024 US elections? The war in Ukraine? The meaning of life? Follow me on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn and look out for future AMAs if you want a chance at getting your question answered.
I picked 10 questions this time. Some of them have been slightly edited for clarity.
What do you make of the NATO Summit outcomes? (Sophia Müller)
The big news was Turkey's President Recept Tayyip Erdogan finally agreeing to let Sweden into the alliance. It was going to happen eventually, but it’s a nice surprise for the US and NATO members that it happened now. Much less surprising (aka not at all) is that Ukraine’s NATO accession keeps getting pushed off into the indeterminate future. While military support for Ukraine will keep expanding week in and week out, core NATO members (especially the US and Germany) have no intention of getting automatically dragged into a direct fight with Russia. They’re perfectly happy fighting a proxy war, but they don’t want to risk a World War III that puts their own troops in harm’s way. That’s the same reason why the Americans refuse to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Not everyone agrees, of course: the Poles, the Balts, the Finns, and even the French (of late) want immediate membership. That said, the other thing the summit showed is that NATO only keeps getting stronger. Members are overall very well aligned, and the alliance has become critical to their national security — not just in the North Atlantic but everywhere (watch your step, Beijing). I guess Russia starting a land war in Europe will do that...
Was it the right call for the US to approve cluster munitions for Ukraine? (Chloe Li)
On balance, I say no. There’s a reason why these weapons are banned (though neither the US, Russia, nor Ukraine are signatories to the ban): they are brutally dangerous to civilians for many years after they’ve been used. Yes, the Russians have been using them throughout the war, but that doesn’t mean we should want more of them in the fight. Now, I understand why Biden is doing this. The US and its allies are running very low on artillery ammunition, which the Ukrainians need much more of to take back and defend their territory. But the US has plenty of cluster munitions, which would actually be pretty useful on the battleground for Ukraine. And Biden wants to do everything he can to help ensure the Ukrainian counteroffensive is successful. Be that as it may, the US dragging itself down to the level the Russians have been fighting on is ultimately detrimental to core American interests and our moral standing.
With some level of Putin opposition building in Russia, what are the chances of Putin being unseated? (Jeff Muchow)
The odds of Putin being unseated are zero … until right after it happens. In other words, if it happens, it’s likely to be sudden and with no external signaling or foreknowledge. The downside of taking Putin on for any Russian citizen and their family/loved ones remains absolute if they fail. And we haven’t seen any grassroots demonstrations or major defections. The Wagner “coup” was unprecedented, but it had no immediate impact on Russia’s status quo. Clearly, though, there’s lots more pressure now that Prigozhin openly challenged him and lived to see another day (for now). Deeper, systemic, and potentially existential fault lines in the system have been exposed – and they can’t be un-exposed. The war in Ukraine has gone terribly for Russia’s military, and a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive could make this even more evident. Elite fracture, especially within the national security complex, is much more likely in an environment where Russia’s strongman no longer looks so … strong. A successful challenge to Putin’s rule is still a tail risk, but whereas a month ago it seemed unthinkable, today it’s considerably more plausible.
Why is Gavin Newsom not running for president? (Ade of Nigeria)
Nobody serious is prepared to challenge Biden if the incumbent president decides he wants to run (as he has), even though most Democratic leaders I know privately tell me they would rather he didn’t run again. While Biden’s age is a massive liability, he is the incumbent president and has the full support of his party’s establishment, so he’d have the overwhelming advantage in a contested primary (not to mention that he has reformed the primary calendar in his favor). Most Democratic voters and elites correctly recognize that Biden, a known quantity with proven electability and a 1-0 record against Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, is their best chance of keeping the White House. No one else in the field can boast about that.
Do you still believe that the US is the best country to live in the world? (Mahadi Hasan)
For me personally, absolutely. I’m never going to move. But that answer is dependent on so many factors. There are lots of countries that the US could (and should) learn from to improve our quality of life and well-being: most every advanced democracy on keeping money out of politics, Canada on reasonable gun control, the Nordics on health care and primary education, and the list goes on and on. But all these countries can also learn things from the United States — especially on how to integrate immigrants, entrepreneurship, and fostering a culture of risk-taking, invention, and innovation. There’s a reason why people from all over the world want to move to America despite its many flaws ...
Where’s the US-China relationship heading? (Brian Li)
Right now, in a negative direction. Despite ongoing (and moderately successful) efforts by both sides to improve high-level diplomacy, the relationship itself isn’t improving … and it’s unlikely to in the near future. There’s a floor under it, but it’s being tested by challenging domestic politics and an increasing misalignment between economics and national security. The strong economic interdependence between the two countries will remain for the foreseeable future, even as it’s progressively eroded by “derisking” on both sides. But in an environment of zero trust and no high-level military-to-military dialogue, the potential for “accidents” will continue to grow. And the more the two economies decouple, the higher the odds of direct conflict – most likely over Taiwan, as the hotspot where the underlying status quo is most quickly changing.
Do you still believe we’re in a G-Zero world? (@KaroshiProspect)
Yes, sadly. Global institutions are still not aligned with the underlying balance of power. But as I explained in my recent TED Talk, I also think we are quickly moving away from this leaderless G-Zero world and toward a world with three different global orders: a multipolar economic order, a unipolar security order, and a digital order whose balance of power is still to be determined.
When people talk about geopolitical risks, it's always implicitly downside risks. But what are some of your top *upside* risk scenarios over the next 1, 5, and 20 years? (Alex Holmes)
My answer’s the same for all time horizons: AI being used to massively improve education, health, climate, and, heck, every field of science. I’ve never been more excited about the upside potential of humanity than I am by the promise of AI. (Simultaneously, I’ve never been more concerned about the tail risks that we’re not going to be around for long). Yay, us!
Is your money on Elon or Zuck if they throw down in the octagon together? (Joshua Morganstern)
This fight is one of the stupidest ideas I’ve heard in a long time – and the bar is high. Having said that, if there’s anyone who should be in a cage match, it’s probably two men who think Ayn Rand is high literature ... I expect that if they go through it (big if), they’ll probably play-fight for two or three rounds before they announce a tie or some such BS.
What’s your beef with cats? (@freeulysses_tj)
It’s unclear whether they have any use for people.
Water is dropped near a fireman as the Fairview Fire burns near Hemet, California.
California scorcher, Gulf states threaten Netflix, potential Putin-Xi meeting
California’s dystopian heatwave
Californians are bracing for mass power outages as the state of 40 million people suffers a record-breaking heatwave with temperatures in the triple digits. With residents cranking up air conditioners, state authorities say energy use statewide is hitting record levels. (The power grid is under added pressure because of the extreme heat, which makes power transmission less efficient.) Meanwhile, California’s independent grid operator called for energy rationing between 4 and 9 pm, advising residents to turn up their thermostats and avoid using energy-intensive equipment like dishwashers and washing machines. Indeed, the heatwave and energy crunch indicate that extreme weather events linked to climate change are pummeling countries in the developing and developed world alike. (With a GDP of $3.4 trillion in 2021, California’s economy is the largest in the US, surpassing countries like India and France.) As several wildfires broke out in Southern California in recent days, Governor Gavin Newsom warned that “we’re heading into the worst part of this heat wave.”
Gulf gulp for Netflix
Several Gulf Arab states have threatened legal action against the US-based streaming giant unless it censors any content there that violates “Islamic and societal values.” The salvo came from a Riyadh-based commission that represents the media interests of the Gulf Cooperation Council. No specific offenses were listed, but the concern is believed to center on programming that includes LGBTQ characters or themes. It’s not clear how big the Middle East market is for Netflix — the company lumps the region together with Africa and Europe in its annual reports. But the real challenge may come closer to home: Netflix recently weathered a backlash from progressives angry about a Dave Chappelle comedy special that was seen to make fun of transgender people. Would caving to Riyadh’s content demands provoke a similar storm? As our Eurasia Group friends noted earlier this year, the culture wars are a constant and usually no-win battle for companies these days.Putin-Xi: From BFFs to "it's complicated"
The Kremlin says Vladimir Putin will meet Xi Jinping next week at a regional security gathering in Uzbekistan. If confirmed, it'll be the first in-person chat between the presidents of Russia and China since early February, when Putin attended the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics less than three weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine. It'll also be Xi's first trip outside China since early 2020 — a big milestone for the architect of China's zero-COVID policy. The two have a lot to talk about since their last hangout, during which they showed off a bilateral bromance that, it turns out, does have limits. Xi was not happy about the Russian invasion but perhaps hoped the war would be quick and the West wouldn't have time to respond. That clearly did not happen, and the conflict looks more destined for a deep freeze than a negotiated settlement. What's more, China is feeling the heat for being noncommittal about Ukraine at a time that its lagging economy can hardly afford to lose foreign investment dollars. Russia, for its part, needs China to keep buying Russian oil that's off Western markets — albeit it at bargain prices — and remain its most powerful “friend.”
How the Democrats plan to tax the rich; Newsom wins CA recall
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares insights on US politics:
Will the House Democrats actually be able to "tax the rich"?
The answer to that question is yes, the House Democrats this week rolled out a proposal in order to partially finance their plans to spend $3.5 trillion. The tax proposal is notable for three things. One, while it does raise taxes on corporate America, including the corporate rate (that's 26.5% from 21% today), it goes a little bit softer on them than a proposal from Senate Democrats or from the Biden administration who wanted to be much more aggressive in going after the overseas earnings of US multinational corporations.
Two, is the proposal's reliance on money from America's wealthiest citizens, including by increasing the top rate back to 39.6%, which was the rate before the Trump tax cuts and imposing a new 3% surtax on people earning over $5 million a year. Not a big constituent groups. Very unlikely you see a lot of pushback against that. In some ways, however, the House proposal was more moderate than some of the proposals we've seen from other Democrats, including on taxing capital gains at death, taxing the oil and gas industry, and the top capital gains rate, which in the House proposal only goes to 25% as opposed to the Biden proposal to go all the way to 39.6%. So, this proposal isn't going to pass exactly as proposed, but it does show a pathway for Democrats to raise a lot of money from corporate America and the wealthiest Americans.
What are the takeaways after Governor Gavin Newsom survived the California recall election?
Well, to be honest, there really aren't that many. This election was a fluke really driven by California's easy recall laws, which allow a very small number of voters to put together a petition to launch a recall, which turned out to be very expensive by the way, almost a quarter of a billion dollars was spent on this election, which Newsom ended up winning quite easily. In fact, he won by almost the exact margin he won his 2018 gubernatorial election, which just tells you more about the partisan lean of the state and the fact that he is a Democrat in a state that a Republican hasn't won statewide in over a decade than it does about any of the atmospherics surrounding his approach to COVID or people being unhappy about him having a fancy birthday dinner. One possible takeaway is reports that one of the leading Republican candidates was trying to delegitimize the results of the election by claiming fraud that wasn't there, which echoes of course, President Trump's delegitimization of the 2020 election. And unfortunately, is probably a sign of things to come for the loser in election statewide and at the federal level going forward, particularly among Republicans.
What We're Watching: California's governor faces the heat, worrying signs for Argentina's president, a Malaysian deal
The world's fifth largest economy votes: Voters in the US state of California will vote Tuesday on whether to fire the state's Democratic Governor, Gavin Newsom, and replace him with someone else. Some 46 candidates have put their names on the ballot to take the governor's mansion from Newsom, the former San Francisco mayor who has been broadly criticized for his pandemic policies — in particular his decision to keep many public schools closed last year, as well as dining out at an exclusive restaurant while telling Californians to stay home. But while the recall effort initially had steam, low projected turnout and an uninspiring group of replacement options — including right wing shock-jock Larry Elder and Caitlyn Jenner of Kardashian fame — mean that Newsom will likely survive. The vote has national implications: there is increasing pressure on the state's 88-year old Senator Diane Feinstein to retire before her term is up in 2024, and it would be up to the governor to appoint her replacement. With the Senate currently divided 50-50, a Republican governor could flip control back to the GOP. But that's a long-shot: Republicans only make up 24 percent of the electorate, compared to 35 percent in 2003, the last time the state recalled its Democratic governor. Who took over after that? The Terminator.
Bad signs for Argentina's president: The coalition of President Alberto Fernandez got walloped over the weekend in mandatory primaries that are considered a dry-run for November's mid-term elections. His leftwing Peronist ticket pulled just 31 percent of the vote, almost ten points behind the center-right opposition Juntos por el Cambio (Together for Change) list, and won in just 8 of Argentina's 24 provinces. The result isn't hugely surprising, considering how bad things are in Argentina at the moment. Inflation is flirting with 50 percent, and Argentina has one of the highest death rates per 100,000 in the world. If these results repeat in November, Fernandez would lose his Senate majority, vastly complicating his ability to govern in the second half of his term. At the same time, his powerful Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, who was president from 2007 to 2015, is breathing down his neck, pushing for more economic interventions in order to boost support in the election. With Argentina already reeling from a debt crisis, that could prove disastrous. Argentina has lurched from crisis to crisis in recent years, with big political swings to match. Indeed, the next two months could be particularly perilous.
A big deal in Malaysia: The country's ruling coalition has signed an agreement with the opposition, in a move that boost's the teetering prime minister, and could stabilize politics for a bit after a tumultuous few years. In August, current PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob became the third prime minister in as many years, with a majority so slim that the country's monarch called for a vote of confidence to prove that he was really in charge. The new agreement, meant to shore up political stability while the country grapples with the pandemic, grants the opposition a say on all legislation and matters of economic recovery, and lowers the voting age from 21 to 18. No date has been set for the confidence vote, but that will be the next big milestone for Ismail Sabri, who will now try and pass the 2022 national budget to boost confidence. A strong showing will put him in the clear for a while, and give Malaysia a chance to dig out of the pandemic without further political upheavals.
COVID hypocrisy & misinformation
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi, everybody. Ian Bremmer here from sunny Nantucket and going to be here for a little bit. Thought we would talk about the latest on COVID. Certainly, we had hoped we'd be talking less about it at this point, at least in terms of the developed world. A combination of the transmissibility of Delta variant and the extraordinary misinformation around vaccines and COVID treatment means that we are not in the position that many certainly had hoped we would be today.
The United States is the biggest problem on this front. We are awash in vaccines. Operation Warp Speed was an enormous success. The best vaccines in the world, the most effective mRNA, the United States doing everything it can to get secure doses for the entire country quick, more quickly than any other major economy in the world, and now we're having a hard time convincing people to take them. The politics around this are nasty and as divided as the country, absolutely not what you want to see in response to a health crisis.
On the left, I'm seeing so much talk about mask mandates and so much hypocrisy. The mayor of Washington, DC announcing a mask mandate for the entire district and literally within hours, she shows up to officiate a wedding and nobody's wearing masks, including the mayor, Muriel Bowser. You remember back, the governor of California, now under a recall campaign, Gavin Newsom, when everything was shut down and he's there at the French Laundry, a great restaurant, having an indoor party with his buddies mask-less when nobody else was doing that. President Obama, former President Obama now about to have 475 people at a big party for his 60th birthday in the (Martha's) Vineyard while you have so many among the Democrats that are saying, "no, we have to have mask mandates when cases are increasing. You shouldn't be gathering in these larger groups."
At the same time, you've got people like Governor DeSantis in Florida, Governor Abbott in Texas, and others that are saying that vaccine mandates among private corporations should be illegal. That if you're a restaurant, if you're a store, you're not allowed to tell people who are coming into your establishment that they have to show proof of vaccination, which strikes me as a ludicrous thing to do. And certainly, given how extraordinarily effective we know these vaccines are, there's just far too much virtue signaling.
We don't need everyone in the country wearing masks. We just need everyone vaccinated. And there need to be consequences otherwise. And yes, I know the vaccines are not yet proven safe for children. I would not make an argument that we should be requiring children to take vaccines until we know that they're safe. But we also know that those children are at extremely low risk for getting sick and dying from the disease. And given the amount of damage lack of attending classes does to kids and their development for well over a year now, the idea that we have teachers unions in the United States that are saying, "no, we refuse to open up classes again this fall given where the country is," that's extraordinary to me. It shouldn't be allowed. The schools have to open across the country. It's not like the danger of the disease is the only danger that's out there. You've got economic damage. You've got sociological and psychological damage. We have to get people, particularly poor people, at able to live normal lives. And who are the ones that can't effectively homeschool or have private tutors? Those are the ones that are going to be most affected by this yet again. So, I think that's a serious problem.
This outrageous politics-first approach on COVID response promotes misinformation. It is a tax on the poor and the uneducated. The wealthiest 1% in the United States are almost all vaccinated. The people with graduate degrees are almost all vaccinated, but the QAnon supporters, the National Enquirer readers, they are not. And if you believe that Trump actually won the presidency and is going to be reinstated in the next few weeks, of course you believe that the Delta variant is a fraud and that the vaccine is mind control. Bad domestic actors are perpetrating this on America. People are profiting from this. Social media companies are allowing this disinformation to persist. It is not coming from the Kremlin. We in the US are damaging ourselves far worse than Moscow or Beijing ever could. And that's in the United States.
And meanwhile, while the Americans are awash in vaccines that we are not taking and that are even going bad in Africa, the continent is almost fully un-vaccinated. 1.3 billion people on the African continent, 1% of that population is fully vaccinated. It's an obscenity. It can only be allowed to persist if we think that people living in Africa somehow aren't fully human beings, that they don't deserve the opportunities, the health care, the ability to live and protect their families, their children the way that we do in the wealthy countries.
I saw Secretary of State Tony Blinken saying that we are, the United States, sharing as many safe and effective vaccines around the world as possible. I couldn't believe he said that. I know Tony and I understand, and he's not a bad guy, I've known him for a long time, and as secretary of state, you have to be diplomatic. You can't always say what you mean. It's certainly why I shouldn't have that job, but this is just a false hood. The United States is not doing anything close to everything we can for the rest of the world.
We are shockingly ungenerous in the ability and willingness to fund and to provide vaccines for those that don't have them. The COVAX Facility so far, 150 million doses delivered. The plan, the modest and reasonable plan for now was 650 million doses. We are 500 million doses short. It's underfunded. You had 1.8 billion per vaccine delivery that was provided for last month, over a billion dollars short of their modest goals. This was the kind of thing, it's not just the United States, pretty much any G20 economy, maybe not Argentina, any individual G20 economy could have done the COVAX funding by themselves, and they didn't. They all looked, I guess, not even at each other because they wouldn't budge. As long as you're taking care of your own country, that's all you need to do.
In this environment at a time that we are facing the worst crisis of our lifetimes, the United States on the one hand, refuses to follow basic science. We are as deeply politicized as any time we've ever experienced it, pointing fingers, calling names, thinking that we are our own worst enemy while we're not taking care of even the basics. And we can so easily afford to do so for those around the world.
It's much easier not to talk about this. It's much easier to not to focus on it. But if we can't get this right for COVID, how are we going to get it right for the bigger crises to come? How do we get it right for climate? How do we get it right for terrorism, for migration? How do we get it right for the next pandemic or the next variants of COVID? It's challenging and it's something we're going to keep talking about, but something I wanted to address today. As so many of us are thinking about summer and enjoying ourselves and our families and our friends, and that's all wonderful, but spare a thought and some action for those that are not so fortunate.
And I hope everyone's doing well. And I'll talk to you all real soon.
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Why US COVID relief package progress is unlikely before January
Jon Lieber, who leads Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, offers insights on US politics:
With 250,000 Americans dead of COVID and case counts rising, is there any sign of a federal relief package on the way?
And the answer is a solid maybe. The interesting thing is even after the election, neither party has really changed their views on what they want in a stimulus. The Democrats are still holding to their $2.5 trillion number, and the Republicans are saying they want something much smaller and more targeted. President Trump is nowhere to be found in these discussions. He's busy litigating the outcome of an election he lost. Vice President Biden, the incoming President on January 20th, has indicated he basically supports the Democrat's position. He can probably be the deal breaker here. If he wants to tell the Democrats to come down with their number, that could potentially drive compromise with the Republicans. Negotiations haven't really gone anywhere though in the last six months, and I'd frankly be surprised at this point if we saw relief before the fifth January runoff election in Georgia, which will determine control of the Senate.
Why is everyone so mad at California Governor Gavin Newsom?
Well, the problem is, Gavin Newsom's having a hard time following his own rules. There's restrictions in place across California, mask mandates, curfews, lockdowns are happening, and the Governor went and celebrated a birthday party for a friend at a $450 a meal restaurant in Napa Valley. So, I think there's a lot of people saying that he's not exactly leading by example. Similar criticism was levied against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi this week for hosting a large dinner for incoming freshmen congressmen inside, that was later to converted to a to-go meal after some blow back on Twitter. So, there's a problem here, where many Americans are stuck inside, are being told to stay at home, are being told to cancel Thanksgiving, and political leaders aren't following their own rules.