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Children walk through the destruction, as Palestinians try to build tents next to their destroyed homes after returning to Khan Younis, amid the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Gaza ceasefire talks underway as first phase deadline looms
Phase one of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is set to expire Saturday amid uncertainty over whether there’s enough common ground to discuss phase two.
Both sides are sending delegations to Cairo for possible talks, with Qatar and Egypt serving as intermediaries in the US-backed process. This first phase, which went into effect on Jan. 19, included the handover of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Both parties paused hostilities in Gaza, where brutal fighting has destroyed around 70% of the structures and killed at least 48,000, according to Gaza’s health ministry, so people could return to their homes and critical aid could be allowed in.
Negotiations for the second phase, which is meant to include Israeli troop withdrawal from the narrow strip between Gaza and Egypt known as the Philadelphi corridor in exchange for the dozens of remaining hostages, were supposed to start earlier this month but have yet to get underway. Now Israel wants to extend the first phase and secure the release of more hostages without leaving the corridor, which is likely to hamper negotiations for the second phase and beyond.
That raises even bigger questions about Gaza’s future. President Donald Trump has proposed turning Gaza into a “Riviera,” permanently displacing Palestinians, while Egypt wants to rebuild infrastructure, exclude Hamas from government, and keep Palestinians on their land.
Released Doron Steinbrecher embraces loved ones at Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan, Israel, after being held in Gaza since the deadly Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, on Jan. 19, 2025.
Gaza ceasefire goes into effect, and three hostages are set free
Following last-minute disagreements over Israeli troop withdrawals and the identities of the hostages to be released, the Gaza ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel went into effect on Sunday.
So far, three Israeli hostages — Romi Gonen, Emily Damari, and Doron Steinbrecher — have been reunited with their families, ending 471 days in captivity following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas. They were the first of the 33 hostages set to be released under the deal — and Israel has agreed to release 1,900 Palestinians from Israeli jails. As of early Monday local time, 90 Palestinian prisoners had already been freed.
Domestic political costs: On Sunday, Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvirresigned from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet to protest the ceasefire. He was joined by two other ministers from the far-right Jewish Power party. This leaves Netanyahu with only a slim governing majority in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament. Further defection could lead to the government's collapse.
Will the deal hold up? For the first phase, lasting 42 days, the incentives seem well enough aligned to keep either side from breaching the peace. Hamas needs time to reorganize and rearm, which it can achieve by releasing the 33 hostages it has promised throughout the first phase. Netanyahu, for his part, wants to deliver those hostages for voters — but after that phase is over, prospects dim.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu attends the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem December 27, 2015.
Israeli cabinet meets to vote on Gaza ceasefire
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office confirmed on Friday that a Gaza ceasefire deal has been finalized following a “last-minute crisis," and the security cabinet is meeting now to ratify the agreement. Israeli warplanes, meanwhile, carried out dozens of missions in the Gaza Strip on Thursday that left at least 86 dead and dampened the jubilation many Palestinians felt when the ceasefire agreement was first announced.
What was the holdup? Two disagreements with Hamas supposedly caused the delay: One over the precise locations from which Israeli troops would withdraw and another over the identities of hostages due to be exchanged.
Hardliners in the cabinet, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, are expected to vote against the ceasefire but look unlikely to be able to stop it. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday he still expects the fighting to stop as scheduled on Sunday. On Friday, the names of the 33 hostages to be released in the first phase were published, with the prime ministers office saying that they could begin being freed as early as Sunday, once the deal is ratified.
Will the deal hold up? For the first phase, lasting 42 days, the incentives seem well enough aligned to keep either side from breaching the peace. Hamas needs time to reorganize and rearm, which it can achieve by releasing the 33 hostages it has promised throughout the first phase. Netanyahu, for his part, wants to deliver those hostages for voters — but after that phase is over, prospects dim.
The putative second and third phases of the ceasefire deal will need to be hashed out while the first is in progress, and the Israeli far right is eager to return to fighting. Ben-Gvir has threatened to resign if the deal goes through, and Smotrich has said he will withdraw if the ceasefire continues beyond the first phase. If they both leave, this could risk the collapse of Netanyahu's government.
“At the end of the first phase of the ceasefire, Netanyahu could face a dilemma in which he is forced to choose between holding his coalition together or maintaining the ceasefire to get more hostages released,” says Farzan Sabet, a Middle East consultant at Eurasia Group. Meanwhile, the Israeli leader would be “under pressure from much of the rest of the Israeli opposition and the public as well as incoming US President Donald Trump.”
How is the wider world reacting? Russia and China’s foreign ministries expressed hope that the ceasefire deal would lead to long-term peace, while British PM Keir Starmer described the deal as “very welcome.” Japan and South Korea both urged a swift implementation of the deal as well, while France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz specifically urged Hamas to release hostages.
Gaza ceasefire likely as Biden and Trump both push
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
A Gaza ceasefire has gained momentum. What is the likelihood a deal will be reached soon?
We've heard this news before. At least five times over the last year that we've heard we were almost at a Gaza ceasefire. This time around though it looks much more likely. Why is that? Because Trump is about to be president, because Trump's envoys and Biden's envoys have been working together on these issues, and also because that means pressing the Israeli government in a way that feels much more serious if you are the prime minister. And also because Trump has been pressing Hamas. And so, I think the unilateralism is there. The fact the deal was already very close, and now this means Biden gets to say he got the deal and Trump gets to say he's ended a war, at least for the time being, and a lot more hostages get freed. So yeah, this time around it looks pretty likely.
What do I make of a potential sale of TikTok to Elon Musk?
Well, it's just been announced that the Chinese are considering it. I always thought that it was more likely than not that if the Supreme Court were to uphold a ban that the Chinese would probably allow a sale to go through. Though they were going to say they were never going to until the last moment because why give up leverage when you don't necessarily have to? So their historic unwillingness doesn't mean to me that they're actually unwilling. To the extent that there is a deal and it goes to Elon, he becomes more powerful, and he also is seen by the Chinese as owing them one. So would he facilitate an improved, a more stable relationship between the US and China? It's an early indication that he could play a role. He hasn't said anything on the China front yet, but certainly you would expect that he would meet with the high-level envoy that's going to the inauguration that Xi Jinping was invited to on the 20th. That's what we should watch in the next week. Okay, that's it for that one.
What does Lebanon's new president mean for Hezbollah?
Weaker Hezbollah, but so much is going to be determined on what Israel decides to do on the ground in the south of Lebanon. Are they staying there for a longer period of time? We've heard news of late that they intend to maintain that occupation in a longer than just couple of weeks, couple of months environment, which makes it harder to keep Hezbollah from starting fighting again. On balance, I think this ceasefire is looking a little shakier right now, even with the new Lebanese president than it had a few weeks ago. We'll see. But if it does break down, the level of fighting won't be what it was a few months ago because Hezbollah doesn't have that capacity and the Iranians can't restock their weapons because Assad has fallen in Syria.
Palestinians inspect damage at the site of an Israeli strike on a house amid the Israel-Hamas conflict at the Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip on December 13, 2024.
A Gaza ceasefire within reach
This time, the hopes appear well-founded. Hamas, and its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, have taken a beating. A number of leaders in both organizations have been killed, and with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, Iran has lost the ability to resupply them with new weapons.
Haggling continues over the deal’s details, but it appears a ceasefire would unfold in stages. First, Hamas would release dozens of the Israeli civilians and female soldiers it still holds hostage, and Israel would remove troops from Gaza’s cities, its coastal highway, and the corridor at Gaza’s border with Egypt. In a second phase, Hamas would release its remaining hostages, and more Israeli troops would be withdrawn from Gaza. Finally, the details of a longer term ceasefire itself would then be set.
More than 100 Israeli hostages have already been freed, either through Israeli-Hamas bargaining or Israeli rescue operations. In total, Israeli officials believe another 62 hostages are still alive and that Hamas or associated groups hold at least 30 more bodies of hostages who died. TheUnited Nations reports that more than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed since the Hamas attack on Israel that triggered the war.Smoke rises from the vicinity of the Hamad Towers area, west of Khan Younis, Gaza trip, August 14, 2024.
US pressures Israel for Gaza truce, Hamas skips cease-fire talks
Israeli negotiators met with mediators in Qatar on Thursday to discuss an end to the war in Gaza. The basic framework revolves around an end to hostilities, the release of Israeli hostages, and the freeing of certain Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
Hamas, however, refused to take part in the meeting, protesting several of Israel’s other proposals, including that Tel Aviv would continue to control Gaza’s border with Egypt.
With Hamas absent, the chances of the talks being successful are slim to none. This is bad news for the Biden administration, which had renewed calls for a cease-fire in hopes of delivering an agreement ahead of Iran’s anticipated retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a senior Hamas official in Tehran two weeks ago. Washington fears a severe Iranian reprisal could trigger a broader conflict in the region.
The Biden administration has been sending strong signals that it thinks it’s time for a cease-fire, with anonymous government officials telling the New York Times that Israel has reached the limits of its military campaign to destroy Hamas.
So far, it looks like little progress is likely, and Iran is still weighing its options against Israel.
Palestine’s UN ambassador asks the US to be ‘courageous’ and push for a cease-fire
What will it take to end the stalemate between Israel and Hamas and actually achieve a lasting cease-fire in Gaza? On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Riyad Mansour, Palestine’s ambassador to the United Nations, says the answer ultimately comes down to the country with the most influence over Israel, states in the Middle East, and the UN General Assembly: the United States.
Given that the recent US-backed cease-fire proposal has stalled in negotiations, Bremmer pushed Ambassador Mansour on what needs to happen to make meaningful progress and whether either side has enough incentive to agree to a peace deal, as both appear to benefit politically from the conflict. Mansour argues the US is still influential enough to force both sides to the table, that public sentiment is overwhelmingly on the side of peace, and warns of the danger of descending the "logic of extremists" who benefit politically from the conflict continuing.
“The US is capable of being an honest broker, they need to be decisive, they need to be fair, they need to listen to the sentiment of the American people and almost everyone at the United Nations,” Mansour stresses, “There is something in the air. People want justice for the Palestinians.”
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Xi invites Putin to China to strengthen "no limits" partnership
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Putin's upcoming visit with Xi Jinping signal a continuing “no limits” partnership between China and Russia?
The relationship is certainly becoming more strategic over time. Not so much because the Russians are changing their behavior. They have very few options at this point. North Korea and Iran are their top allies. Belarus, Syria. I mean, it's a rogues’ gallery, but China is increasingly finding that their ability to work long term in a stable and sustainable way with America's allies in Asia, with the Europeans, and with the United States itself becoming more constrained. And given all of that, willingness to be a closer ally with Russia is increasing over time. Just look at Biden putting 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports. All of this is sending a message to the Chinese that no matter who's elected in November, that the US is trying to contain them. And yeah, I think longer term, the more they see that from the US and their allies, the closer with the Russians they will eventually be.
Why is Europe alarmed with Georgia's “foreign agents” law?
Well, here it's because this is a law. that is, in principle. nothing wrong with it. In principle, just talking about publishing those NGOs, those organizations that get at least 20% funding from external sources. In reality, it's being put in place by a bunch of political leaders that are aligned with Russia. It is almost identical to Russia's own foreign agents law, and it has been used in Russia to chilling effect, to shut down anything that feels like pro-Western democratic opposition in government institutions that in Russia are authoritarian and Georgia are leaning more authoritarian. Keep in mind, this is a Georgia that has constitutionally enshrined that they want to join the European Union and NATO. But the reality is that political officials are moving farther away from that. Big, big demonstrations and potential for violence on the ground in Georgia going forward.
How will Biden respond if Israel continues to push into Rafah?
Well, he said it's a red line, but ultimately it's going to feel like as much of a red line, I suspect, as Obama was on Syria. Yes, they will reduce some level of offensive weaponry that can be used by Israel, in Rafah. But the reality is they're going to keep providing intelligence, keep providing the vast majority of the defense spending that Israel gets from the United States and the weaponry. And there are a lot of members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, that are really upset about the idea of suspending any support to Israel and are moving to try to block Biden legislation, which means he has to find a compromise with them in an election year. All of this puts him firmly in no man's land on the Israel-Palestine issue, not where Biden wants to be.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
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