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Palestinians inspect damage at the site of an Israeli strike on a house amid the Israel-Hamas conflict at the Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip on December 13, 2024.
A Gaza ceasefire within reach
This time, the hopes appear well-founded. Hamas, and its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, have taken a beating. A number of leaders in both organizations have been killed, and with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, Iran has lost the ability to resupply them with new weapons.
Haggling continues over the deal’s details, but it appears a ceasefire would unfold in stages. First, Hamas would release dozens of the Israeli civilians and female soldiers it still holds hostage, and Israel would remove troops from Gaza’s cities, its coastal highway, and the corridor at Gaza’s border with Egypt. In a second phase, Hamas would release its remaining hostages, and more Israeli troops would be withdrawn from Gaza. Finally, the details of a longer term ceasefire itself would then be set.
More than 100 Israeli hostages have already been freed, either through Israeli-Hamas bargaining or Israeli rescue operations. In total, Israeli officials believe another 62 hostages are still alive and that Hamas or associated groups hold at least 30 more bodies of hostages who died. TheUnited Nations reports that more than 44,000 Palestinians have been killed since the Hamas attack on Israel that triggered the war.Smoke rises from the vicinity of the Hamad Towers area, west of Khan Younis, Gaza trip, August 14, 2024.
US pressures Israel for Gaza truce, Hamas skips cease-fire talks
Israeli negotiators met with mediators in Qatar on Thursday to discuss an end to the war in Gaza. The basic framework revolves around an end to hostilities, the release of Israeli hostages, and the freeing of certain Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
Hamas, however, refused to take part in the meeting, protesting several of Israel’s other proposals, including that Tel Aviv would continue to control Gaza’s border with Egypt.
With Hamas absent, the chances of the talks being successful are slim to none. This is bad news for the Biden administration, which had renewed calls for a cease-fire in hopes of delivering an agreement ahead of Iran’s anticipated retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a senior Hamas official in Tehran two weeks ago. Washington fears a severe Iranian reprisal could trigger a broader conflict in the region.
The Biden administration has been sending strong signals that it thinks it’s time for a cease-fire, with anonymous government officials telling the New York Times that Israel has reached the limits of its military campaign to destroy Hamas.
So far, it looks like little progress is likely, and Iran is still weighing its options against Israel.
Palestine’s UN ambassador asks the US to be ‘courageous’ and push for a cease-fire
What will it take to end the stalemate between Israel and Hamas and actually achieve a lasting cease-fire in Gaza? On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Riyad Mansour, Palestine’s ambassador to the United Nations, says the answer ultimately comes down to the country with the most influence over Israel, states in the Middle East, and the UN General Assembly: the United States.
Given that the recent US-backed cease-fire proposal has stalled in negotiations, Bremmer pushed Ambassador Mansour on what needs to happen to make meaningful progress and whether either side has enough incentive to agree to a peace deal, as both appear to benefit politically from the conflict. Mansour argues the US is still influential enough to force both sides to the table, that public sentiment is overwhelmingly on the side of peace, and warns of the danger of descending the "logic of extremists" who benefit politically from the conflict continuing.
“The US is capable of being an honest broker, they need to be decisive, they need to be fair, they need to listen to the sentiment of the American people and almost everyone at the United Nations,” Mansour stresses, “There is something in the air. People want justice for the Palestinians.”
Season 7 of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, launches nationwide on public television stations beginning Friday, July 5 (check local listings).
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Xi invites Putin to China to strengthen "no limits" partnership
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Does Putin's upcoming visit with Xi Jinping signal a continuing “no limits” partnership between China and Russia?
The relationship is certainly becoming more strategic over time. Not so much because the Russians are changing their behavior. They have very few options at this point. North Korea and Iran are their top allies. Belarus, Syria. I mean, it's a rogues’ gallery, but China is increasingly finding that their ability to work long term in a stable and sustainable way with America's allies in Asia, with the Europeans, and with the United States itself becoming more constrained. And given all of that, willingness to be a closer ally with Russia is increasing over time. Just look at Biden putting 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle exports. All of this is sending a message to the Chinese that no matter who's elected in November, that the US is trying to contain them. And yeah, I think longer term, the more they see that from the US and their allies, the closer with the Russians they will eventually be.
Why is Europe alarmed with Georgia's “foreign agents” law?
Well, here it's because this is a law. that is, in principle. nothing wrong with it. In principle, just talking about publishing those NGOs, those organizations that get at least 20% funding from external sources. In reality, it's being put in place by a bunch of political leaders that are aligned with Russia. It is almost identical to Russia's own foreign agents law, and it has been used in Russia to chilling effect, to shut down anything that feels like pro-Western democratic opposition in government institutions that in Russia are authoritarian and Georgia are leaning more authoritarian. Keep in mind, this is a Georgia that has constitutionally enshrined that they want to join the European Union and NATO. But the reality is that political officials are moving farther away from that. Big, big demonstrations and potential for violence on the ground in Georgia going forward.
How will Biden respond if Israel continues to push into Rafah?
Well, he said it's a red line, but ultimately it's going to feel like as much of a red line, I suspect, as Obama was on Syria. Yes, they will reduce some level of offensive weaponry that can be used by Israel, in Rafah. But the reality is they're going to keep providing intelligence, keep providing the vast majority of the defense spending that Israel gets from the United States and the weaponry. And there are a lot of members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, that are really upset about the idea of suspending any support to Israel and are moving to try to block Biden legislation, which means he has to find a compromise with them in an election year. All of this puts him firmly in no man's land on the Israel-Palestine issue, not where Biden wants to be.
That's it for me and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- The limits of a China-Russia partnership ›
- Tbilisi clashes: Georgia government pushes "Russian" bill risking EU candidacy ›
- Russia invaded Georgia too, and it never left ›
- Biden threatens to cut off some weapons to Israel if Rafah invaded ›
- Putin needs Xi to win the war in Ukraine ›
- All eyes on Russia ahead of Putin-Xi meeting ›
With a Rafah invasion, is the Israel-Hamas cease-fire dead?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
With Israel beginning its invasion of Rafah, is the recent Hamas agreed to cease-fire dead?
No. Though, of course, it was never really alive. Wasn't alive because the Israelis didn't agree to the terms that the Palestinians and Hamas did. But they are still negotiating and Israel's initial foray across the border to take over the crossing in Gaza is not, considered a redline, by the Americans, though it is disrupting humanitarian aid, and it's certainly not a full fledged invasion. So, I mean, again, escalation, lots of warnings, expectation that invasion is going to ensue quickly. But still a possibility that you get a short term cease-fire, a short term cease-fire. We'll see.
Will widespread flooding in Brazil lead to a larger crisis in the region?
Not in the near term. It is going to put some fiscal pressure on Brazil. You know, about 100 looks like dead and missing, and horrible floods, very costly. A result of an El Nino this year which we're seeing in a lot of places. And Brazil is going to have to continue to spend on this. And a lot of countries are and those costs, of course, a lot easier for the developed countries to manage than developing. And loss and damages from natural disasters is not a well funded effort by the wealthy on the planet at this point.
Will a Russian invasion of Ukraine endure as long as Putin, who begins his fifth term as president, remains in office?
While it's been going on since 2014. And so we're in our second decade of Russian invasion of Ukraine. I don't think the fighting has to continue as long as Putin is in office. I am hopeful that at some point, a negotiation can end this conflict. But it's not going to lead to peace between Russia and Ukraine as long as Putin is in office. It's not going to lead to a reestablishment of diplomatic ties between Russia and NATO countries as long as Putin is in office. And, it also isn't going to lead, to the Ukrainians taking all their land back as long as Putin is in office. So those are the problems. And, that's going to be with us for a while.
What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will Iran respond to the attack on their consulate in Syria?
An Israeli strike that killed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leader of Iran in Syria. So on the one hand, Iranian citizen, high-level military official. On the other hand, not in Iran itself, in Syria supporting proxy attacks. Clearly the Iranians have been willing to push hard using the leverage they have in the so-called acts of resistance to engage in strikes against civilian shipping, against Western military capabilities, and against Israel.
The Israelis are showing that they will attack wherever they think fit against them, but Iran has been reluctant to allow this to potentially lead to escalation in a direct war against Iran, which is why it's hard to imagine the Iranians engaging in direct strikes against Israel itself. Ballistic missile strikes from Iran into Israel. So in other words, if you're going to hit Israel, you try to use proxies or you try to hit Israelis outside of Israel itself. Israeli diplomatic facilities, for example, that's where I think you're more likely to see escalation. Escalation seems almost certain from the Iranians, but containing it also is something the Americans and Israel are trying very, very hard to do and that continues to be the case like when we saw the American servicemen killed in Jordan a couple months ago.
What will Israel's invasion of Rafah look like?
Assuming it happens, remember Netanyahu was saying that he has a date now for the strike, but he said that strikes were going to start once Ramadan began if there had not been an agreement on this six-week, hostages for temporary ceasefire deal. There wasn't such a deal, Netanyahu backed off, he could back off again. Also, the ultimatum from the United States is not about a war in Rafah. It is about a large-scale ground war without providing the ability for the Palestinians to evacuate and get humanitarian aid.
Between those two positions there's a lot of wiggle room and one expects that the Israeli government, as they are thinking about those strikes, which I do believe will come, will try to claim domestically that they're doing what they need to clear up Hamas and claim to the Americans that it is at a reduced cost of civilians and it is engaged in the spirit of working with the Americans and not requiring Biden to shut down offensive support for Israel. That's where we are.
What's the fallout from Ecuador's raid of a Mexican embassy?
Well, the first thing is President Noboa of Ecuador, this is political. This is a former vice president who was taking, was sheltering in the Mexican embassy. You raid it, that is a breach of international law, but there is a security, largely security referendum, nationwide referendum coming up in just a couple of weeks in Ecuador that Noboa wants to win. He is ahead, it looks like he will win it now, and this is going to be very popular on the ground.
Guy had been sort of on their wanted list for a long time, but they decided to take that action now because of the domestic politics. So it helps him. Probably doesn't kill the IMF deal that is presently being negotiated, but certainly suspends diplomatic relations between the two countries and it's probably going to affect trade too. So you've alienated the Mexicans, but given the near-term political benefit for the Ecuadorian president, he thought that was a risk worth taking. Lots of impunity in this environment. It's one consistency that we see in our geopolitical recession, our GZERO world.
That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
- Ecuador’s anti-corruption candidate assassinated ›
- Who will Iran blame for deadly explosions near Soleimani’s grave? ›
- Egypt braces for Israel’s ground invasion of Rafah ›
- Bibi sets date for Rafah invasion ›
- Turkish voters punish Erdogan in local elections ›
- How Netanyahu used Hamas to avoid talks of a two-state solution ›
- Yuval Noah Harari: Netanyahu's 'Deep State' fears enabled Oct 7 attack ›
- Netanyahu’s failed Gaza strategy ›
- Israel intent on Rafah invasion despite global backlash - GZERO Media ›
- With a Rafah invasion, is the Israel-Hamas cease-fire dead? - GZERO Media ›
Israel's global image wanes further after killing of aid workers
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
Is Netanyahu losing the PR battle amid public outrage over the IDF strike killing seven aid workers?
I think Israel is losing the information war around the world, not just with the Global South, which was certainly true a few months ago, but increasingly even with Israel's closest allies. I'm hearing from the Germans, from the French, you know, from the Canadians, from the United States, that there is really a lot of upset with the unwillingness to take far greater care about civilian casualties while the Israelis are engaging in massive airstrikes still across Gaza. And of course, especially if we see strikes into Rafah, where well over a million Palestinians are trying to shelter. It's a big problem for the Israelis. It's a big problem for Netanyahu, but no end in sight, right now. And the potential for the war to escalate continues to be very, very real.
What's needed to garner bipartisan support for Speaker Mike Johnson's bill for increased Ukraine aid?
We have bipartisan support. There is overwhelming majority support among Democrats and Republicans to pass aid for Ukraine, likely 60 billion. Could be structured as a loan. Doesn't really matter. It’s not like anyone believes the Ukrainians will be in a position to pay it off any time soon. Makes it more palatable for Trump supporters who have heard the former president say, “not one more dime in direct foreign aid,” has to all be structured as loans in case we don't like them in the future, then they have to pay it back. What if they can't? Who knows? But anyway, that's the structure. The point is that the Ukrainians who have continued to be able to mostly hold their defensive lines, they've lost some territory recently, in part because they don't have enough troops on the ground. They are pushing through more mobilization, but also because they don't have enough artillery and ammunition, enough military equipment. And that is coming some from the Europeans, more soon from the Americans this month, I suspect the next couple of weeks that happens.
What's the significance of Turkey's recent local elections setback for President Erdogan's government?
It is the first time in a couple of decades since Erdogan took power that his party did not win. They didn't get a majority, and instead it was the opposition. And that's a big deal. Even those municipal elections. Look, it doesn't mean the end of Erdogan. He doesn't have to stand for presidential elections, no parliamentary elections until 2028. So it's quite a while. But it does show that elections matter in a country like Turkey as much as Erdogan would like them not to. And it is mostly about lack of comfort with his government's performance on the economy, a lot more pressure to perform adequately. And the mayor of Istanbul is an erstwhile serious challenger to the Turkish president. So, I mean, his ability to change the constitution and consolidate more power, his ability to ensure that his party is going to be in control after 2028 has just gone down quite a bit. And that means he has to be more careful, more cautious and more focused on performing on the economy for his own people.
US-Israel rift over UN resolution: More drama than long-term impact
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
How will the US-Israel relationship be affected by the US backing a Gaza cease-fire resolution at the UN?
Well, it was high drama yesterday when Prime Minister Netanyahu said he was going to immediately suspend an Israeli delegation that was going to visit the United States on the back of that decision.Very unhappy that the Americans decided to allow it to go ahead and abstain as opposed to by themselves vetoing. And keep in mind that all every other permanent and nonpermanent member of the Security Council has voted in favor. A lot of US allies there. And you know, that would seem to be a big deal, except Yoav Gallant, Minister of Defense, still stayed in the United States and had a series of very productive and high level meetings with his counterparts in the US. And there are still negotiations proceeding that are constructive between the US and Israel and Qatar to engage with Hamas and try to get a temporary cease-fire done and a bunch of hostages released also called for immediate release by the UN Security Council resolution. So I think there's a lot more drama here than there is actual impact on the US-Israel relationship. And certainly a lot of pressure that continues to mount on a very unpopular Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at home.
Will there be international consequences from the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse in Baltimore?
I mean, it wasn't terrorism. It was an accident, though. I mean, I guess if this was Russia, they'd say the Ukrainians were responsible for it. It is a major port on the Eastern seaboard that looks like it is going to be a real problem to get in and out of. And that means supply chain challenges, especially in terms of cars, millions of which go through Baltimore every year. But, you know, the United States has an economy that's doing quite well. A growth is significant, but not over whelming. And otherwise supply chain is working around the United States for imports. So I suspect that if there's an economic cost here, it's going to be relatively small and short lived.
What message is Russia sending by their public display of torture against accused terrorists?
Well, they're showing that they have a complete indifference to the well-being of any human being. They're also, of course, displaying that the Russian state will go after you with its full force if you are seen to be an enemy of theirs. That is true in terms of the way they treat opposition journalists and politicians. But it's also true in the way they treat suspected terrorists. And they, of course, have forced confessions. I suspect they do have strong evidence, given what we've seen of that over the last few days. But still, I mean, in a system of rule of law, you are innocent until proven guilty in Russia. Of course you are guilty when the government says you are guilty, in particular, when the absolute leader says you're guilty and then you no longer have rights and the state can do with you as they will. We saw that with Mr. Prigozhin, We saw that with Mr. Navalny. And now we're seeing that with four suspected and likely but not yet proven terrorists.