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What is Trump's Gaza playbook?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Want to talk about Gaza, which has not been as much in the headlines over the past month because so much other news has been emanating from Washington post Trump's inauguration. But he made some news on Gaza and it's relevant to the ongoing war and ceasefire, which is this idea that the United States is going to take over Gaza, develop it and make it into the Riviera, a new Riviera on the Mediterranean. Certainly they have the beachfront property, they don't have the infrastructure, especially not after the war over the last year plus. Trump saying that no US troops would be involved, but it's an enormous opportunity. The Palestinians would have to be resettled. It's not a new plan. He's been talking about this for the last year together with advisors. The idea that there's an enormous amount of money, particularly from the Gulf, that could be interested in investing on the ground. That security could be provided by the Egyptians. That the Palestinians could be temporarily resettled in Egypt, maybe in Jordan.
They would, at least in principle, have the right to return. But I mean, how much money? Probably $20 billion minimum. What's temporary mean? Probably talking about a generation. Are the Palestinians likely to believe that given what's happened on the ground in the West Bank? Hard to imagine. What does governance for the Palestinians look like? Well, Trump no longer supports a two-state solution, which he did support back in the days of the Abraham Accords. Others in the region certainly do, and they, at least in principle though, they're not willing to do an awful lot to bring that about. Of course, the two-state solution, if you are Arab in the region, doesn't necessarily mean democratic governance after all, with the exception of Israel. It's not like you have democratically elected governments across these states. So you're probably talking about something more technocratic and appointed. But still, what's happened is as Trump has been discussing this, the Jordanians and the Egyptians are unhappy and saying, "No way will they take any Palestinians."
The Gulf states are unhappy. The UAE, which has discussed some of this plan with Israel directly, slow rolling how much they'd be willing to do. The Saudis saying they don't support it. And so Trump with all of that and with Prime Minister Netanyahu coming to Washington DC said, "Fine, I'll make an announcement by myself. I'll just do it if you refuse to be a part of it." And then the US diplomats were spending day and night back channeling with Gulf allies saying, "He didn't really mean he was going to take over all of it. He's not planning on taking over the land. Don't worry about it." What I would say is this is an opening strategy to try to get all of the states in the region together with Israel and negotiate what the development of Gaza would possibly look like. To get some commitments for investment. To get some commitments for security.
And there's a lot of space between all of the Palestinians are resettled because certainly they're not all interested in leaving. But some of them certainly are. And you can hardly blame them even though it's their homeland because there is nothing left and it's really hard to get humanitarian aid in, and it's not likely to get meaningfully better, even with the ceasefire, which may not hold up anytime soon. And given the fact that 80% of Israelis polled in the Jerusalem Post, which is a pretty middle of the road survey group and media institution in Israel, say they want all of the Palestinians in Gaza resettled. Given that and given the fact that if you were to engage in reconstruction that security would be necessary, there's going to be an effort to at least create buffer zones, which means more resettlements internally and a desire to allow Palestinians that want to leave the ability to leave.
And Trump would love to create some facts on the ground there. The way he's creating facts on the ground by bringing some illegal migrants in the United States to Guantanamo. There aren't facilities for them, so they set up some tents. But even if it's only one or two planes, suddenly it becomes a policy. And that's precisely what the Trump administration wants to see with the Palestinians and Gaza is that if you are getting out a few busloads or a few shiploads or a few plane loads, then suddenly it's not a question of can they be resettled, but how many and over what time? It's a very different policy discussion, and that's exactly where they and the Israeli government are looking to get to. Now, who's going to take these Palestinians? Right now nobody. Trump was asked if he was going to be willing to, if the United States what his response was, "Well, it's really too far," which doesn't seem to be his perspective for the white Afrikaners in South Africa who are even farther away.
So maybe it's not really about distance. It might be something else. But nonetheless, I do expect that when Trump says that the Egyptians and Jordanians will take some, that if they are paid to take some and what some means and what kind of population and how they're going to be vetted is all to be discussed. But some would not surprise me at all, might be a matter of hundreds or a few thousand. I don't think it's a matter of hundreds of thousands. But again, it starts that conversation. It changes the policy. And especially if we end up reopening the fighting in Gaza, which I think is quite likely over the coming weeks and months, then there becomes more urgency to engage for some of the Palestinians there in more resettlement, more willingness to. So that's what I think this is all about right now.
We are not close to a Palestinian state. We are not close to a broad agreement that would allow the Gulfies to engage fully in what Trump is demanding or to expand the Abraham Accords, to include Saudi Arabia opening diplomatic ties with Israel. But all of this is on the table and is the backdrop for what Trump is putting forward right now. So that's what we're talking about and something we'll be watching really closely. Hope everyone's doing well, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
2024: Ten big moments when politics and culture collided
The line between entertainment and politics seems blurrier than ever these days, and not only because the most powerful leader in the world is once again going to be, among many other things, a former reality TV star.
The ubiquity of social media, the bitterness of political polarization, and the ferocity of the culture wars leaves almost no aspect of our societies untouched by politics these days.
Here’s a look at ten big moments from 2024 when popular culture shaped, or was shaped by, the biggest political stories of the year.
A “Childless Cat Lady” from Pennsylvania endorses Kamala Harris
In what was perhaps the biggest celebrity endorsement of the US presidential campaign, pop superstar Taylor Swift announced to her 280 million Instagram followers in mid September that she’d be voting for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
The endorsement from the year’s most streamed artist wasn’t exactly a surprise – Swift went for Biden in 2020 and has been outspoken on liberal and progressive issues for years. But it provided a shot in the arm for the Dems after a “cruel summer” largely defined by Joe Biden’s bruising and way-too-late withdrawal from the race, and Donald Trump’s seemingly-miraculous evasion of an assassin’s bullet.
Notably, Swift signed her post, which showed her holding one of her three cats, as “A childless cat lady.” That was a swipe at Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, who had earlier criticized women who choose to buck traditional gender roles by having cats but not kids.
It was one of the many ways that gender played into the election, with the Democrats emphasizing issues that were important to many women, such as protecting the right to abortion in a a post-Roe world, while the Trump camp, looking to draw the largely untapped support of young male voters, leaned into messages of macho masculinity and the idealization of more traditional gender roles.
Hulk Hogan rips his shirt off at the RNC
“Let Trumpamania run willlllld, brother!!!” Speaking of macho masculinity, in July, former pro-wrestler Hulk Hogan took the stage at the GOP convention, and in a fit of indignant rage about the attempted assassination of his “hero” Donald Trump, threw down his blazer and ripped off his tank top to reveal a Trump Vance shirt. The crowd went WILD.
It was the craziest on-stage moment at a GOP convention at least since that time Clint Eastwood lectured an empty chair in Tampa in 2012. And as pop culture clashups go, the 71-year old Hogan, his steroidal intensity undiminished by the ravages of age, was something of a time warp: a throwback to the over-the t0p world of 1980s and 1990s celebrity and pro-wrestling culture where Trump himself once held court.
But the mutual embrace between Donald Trump and the world of combat sports was part of his broader strategy to reach those crucial young male voters. He locked up the support of Dana White, the head of Ultimate Fighting Championship, and frequented podcasts popular with fans of mixed martial arts and boxing: perhaps no stop was more influential than his three hour sit-down with the biggest pod of all, The Joe Rogan Experience.In the end, it worked. Trump won over huge numbers of young male voters, particularly in Black and Latino communities – one of the keys to his victory.
Supper scene cooks up controversy at the Paris Olympics
It was the shot seen ‘round the world. The Paris Olympics four hour long opening ceremony in July briefly included a scene featuring more than a dozen dancers and drag queens gathered at a feast table, on either side of a woman in a halo-like medieval headdress. The feast, revealed under a large cloche, was a quasi-naked man painted blue on a bed of fruit.
Did it look a lot like an ultra-progressive remix of Leonardo Da Vinci’s Last Supper? Many Christians and church leaders thought so. It was a “disgrace,” according to Donald Trump. “The war on our faith and traditional values knows no bounds,” tweeted House Speaker Mike Johnson. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said it showed “the moral void of the West.” Even the pope got involved, with the Vatican denouncing the “offense to numerous Christians and .. believers of other religions.”
The ceremony’s artistic director later said, maybe a little improbably, that the reference was actually to a classical Dionysian feast and that the scene was meant to “talk about diversity.” The Olympic committee apologized for offending Christians.
But as ever, the battle lines of the ongoing culture war between conservatives and progressives were brightly drawn – and everyone on all sides saw the scene precisely as they wanted to.
South Korea forces North Korea to face the music
What is all that racket? Oh, it’s just the South Korean government using 20-foot tall speakers to blare K-pop hits across the Demilitarized Zone towards North Korea.
The ear-splitting move, made in June, was part of an escalating propaganda war between the two sides. Earlier, North Korea had begun sending hot air balloons filled with trash and excrement across the border to the South, in response to South Korean activist groups which had sent their own balloons northward laden with propaganda leaflets and USB thumb-drives full of soap operas and music banned in North Korea’s ultra-totalitarian society.
All of this loudly echoed a broader deterioration in relations between the Koreas this year. With talks on the nature of any potential denuclearization of the North long-stalled, Pyongyang finally renounced any prospect of reunification, blew up cross-border liaison offices, and cut all road connections with the South.
With North Korean Supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s pal Donald Trump returning to the White House next year, and South Korea’s politics in chaos after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, keep an eye on how both the politics, and the music, play across the Korean peninsula next year.Oscar winner refutes “hijacking of Jewishness” at the Oscars
Few global issues were, or remain, as polarizing in 2024 as the conflict in Gaza, and those tensions took center stage early in the year at the Oscars, when Director Jonathan Glazer won Best Picture for his film Zone of Interest, a portrayal of the banal family life of the Nazi official in charge of Auschwitz.
In his acceptance speech Glazer, who is Jewish, said his film was a testament to the evils of “dehumanization”, and that he “refuted” those who “hijack Jewishness and the Holocaust” to justify Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories.
The blowback was immediate. The Anti-Defamation League, pro-Israel leaders, and more than a thousand other Jewish film professionals blasted Glazer, with some accusing him of a “modern blood libel.” Just as surely, critics of Israel’s occupation and those calling for a ceasefire in Israel’s war against Hamas leapt to Glazer’s defense.
The episode underscored not only the deep divisions within America about the war in Gaza and the US relationship to Israel, but the political and generational splits within America’s Jewish community itself over this issue.French striker Kylian Mbappé gives an assist to President Macron
Look, we’re not going to touch the heated debate about who the best soccer player in the world is right now. But for a great number of people, it’s 25-year old French striker Kylian Mbappé, who plays for Real Madrid and is the captain of the French national team.
Over the summer, Mbappé took his star power from the pitch into politics, when he weighed in on France’s snap elections. After the far right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen won the first round on a platform calling for a fierce crackdown on immigration, Mbappé, who is of Cameroonian and Algerian descent, said “It’s catastrophic, we really hope that this will change and that everyone will mobilise to vote... and vote for the right side.”
He wasn’t the only member of Les Bleus to weigh in against Le Pen. Others did too. After all, the French soccer team itself has long been at the center of the fraught debate over French immigration and identity – perhaps never more so than when a majority non-white team won the World Cup in 2018.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition managed to eke out the second round, but only by concocting a strange bedfellows alliance with the far left. National Rally, meanwhile, rang up its best election result ever, setting up Le Pen for a decent shot on goal if she decides to run for president in the 2027 election.Gaza war takes center stage at Eurovision
Politics always – always – crashes the party at the annual summit of kitsch and crooning known as “Eurovision.” In recent years the conflicts in Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh have both spilled onto the stage.
This year, it was Gaza. As 20-year old Israeli performer Eden Golan belted out her entry “Hurricane” she was immediately met with boos and cries of “Free Palestine!”
The song itself was controversial from the start. The contest’s organizers, who try their best to keep politics out of the affair, had rejected an earlier version called “October Rain,” an Israeli perspective on Hamas’ Oct. 7 2023 terror rampage, which killed more than 1,200 people.
By the time Eurovision rolled around seven months later, the IDF had visited massive destruction on Gaza, killing tens of thousands, displacing nearly all of the enclave’s two million residents, and drawing accusations of war crimes. The “Free Palestine” protest movement was in full flower, and it popped up at the Eurovision contest ahead of Golan’s performance.
In the end, “Hurricane” placed fifth in the overall contest. Like many Eurovision entries over the years, it is certain to be less memorable than the controversy that surrounded it.
Dead Austrian economist makes UFC cameo
In a surreal, instantly viral moment that even the shrewdest bookie could scarcely have predicted, Brazilian UFC fighter Renato Moicano in February gave a post-fight shoutout to… an influential school of 20th century European economists.
“If you care about your f***** country,” Moicano declared, his cheek still oozing blood after a bruising bout against France’s Benoit Saint Denis, “read Ludwig von Mises and the six lessons of the Austrian economic school motherf*****!”
Now, it’s not every day that a mixed martial artist runs your political economy book club, but Moicano’s comment reflected the rising popularity in Latin America of the so-called “Austrian school” economists, a fiercely laissez-faire group who despised even the merest hint of “socialism.”
Argentina’s “anarcho-libertarian” president Javier Milei, who has taken a “chainsaw” approach to government spending, is probably the world’s most prominent Austrian school disciple these days.
But Mises’ ideas are popular among a broader set of new right populists in the Americas and Europe who see themselves at war with both “globalism” and an overbearing administrative state.
“F*** all of these motherf****** globalists trying to push this politically corrupt agenda,” Moicano went on. “If you want to talk about politics and the economy, read ‘Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann!’”A big fat Indian wedding stokes controversy
If you think weddings are getting crazy expensive these days, you’re absolutely right. In mid July, Anant Ambani, a son of India’s richest man, married his fiance Radhika Merchant, a pharma industry heir, in a months-long nuptial extravaganza that cost some $600 million in total.
The 2,000 person guest list for several pre-wedding parties and the event itself was a who’s who of the global political, fashion, and cultural elite: the Kardashians, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, Indian PM Narendra Modi, two former UK prime ministers, the Jonas Brothers. There were private concerts by, among others, Rihanna, Katy Perry, Justin Bieber, and Pitbull.
Around the world, people followed the festivities, the outfits, the gossip online. And not all of them liked what they saw.
The over the top opulence of it all – and the chummy relationship between the country’s ultra-rich and its politicians – stoked criticism among those who pointed out that India is, after all, a country where some 200 million people languish in poverty, and just 1% of the country controls 40% of the wealth. To put things in perspective, at India’s current per capita income of $2,500, it would take an average person 240,000 years to pay for a wedding like this in cash.Honorary mention: your opinion.
Did we miss anything in this list that you’d have included? If so, let us know here and we may include it in an upcoming edition of the GZERO Daily.
10 memorable quotes on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer in 2024
On our award-winning weekly global affairs show, GZERO World, Ian Bremmer explains the key global stories of the moment and sits down for in-depth conversations with the newsmakers and thought leaders shaping our world. In no particular order, here’s a look back at the 10 most quotable moments from this year’s episodes.
Adam Grant on how AI is changing the world of work
![GZERO World with ian bremmer \u2014 most quotable moments of 2024 | Pictured: Adam Grant with quotes from him](https://www.gzeromedia.com/media-library/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer-u2014-most-quotable-moments-of-2024-pictured-adam-grant-with-quotes-from-him.png?id=55321791&width=980)
Aired on February 2, 2024
The AI revolution is coming… fast. But what does that mean for your job? Watch Ian Bremmer’s conversation with organizational psychologist Adam Grant.Yuval Noah Harari explains why the world isn't fair (but could be)
![GZERO World with ian bremmer \u2014 most quotable moments of 2024 | Pictured: Yuval Noah Harari with quotes from him](https://www.gzeromedia.com/media-library/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer-u2014-most-quotable-moments-of-2024-pictured-yuval-noah-harari-with-quotes-from-him.png?id=55321803&width=980)
Aired on March 8, 2024
In a conversation filmed live at the historic 92nd Street Y in NYC, Yuval Noah Harari delves into the foundational role of storytelling in human civilization, the existential challenges posed by artificial intelligence, the geopolitical implications of the Ukraine war, and the most pressing questions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Watch the full episode.Thomas L. Friedman on How the Israel-Gaza war could end - if Netanyahu wants it to
![GZERO World with ian bremmer \u2014 most quotable moments of 2024 | Pictured: Thomas L Friedman with quotes from him](https://www.gzeromedia.com/media-library/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer-u2014-most-quotable-moments-of-2024-pictured-thomas-l-friedman-with-quotes-from-him.png?id=55321808&width=980)
Aired on April 5, 2024
Pulitzer-prize-winning author and New York Times columnist Thomas L. Friedman games out a possible resolution to the war in Gaza and explains why both Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Hamas are obstacles to peace. Watch the full episode.
Emily Bazelon on the major Supreme Court decisions of June 2024
![GZERO World with ian bremmer \u2014 most quotable moments of 2024 | Pictured: Emily Bazelon with quotes from her](https://www.gzeromedia.com/media-library/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer-u2014-most-quotable-moments-of-2024-pictured-emily-bazelon-with-quotes-from-her.png?id=55321811&width=980)
Aired on May 3, 2024
Yale legal scholar and New York Times Magazine staff writer Emily Bazelon unpacks some of the biggest cases that were on the docket this year and how the rulings will impact Americans. Watch the full episode.
Justice & peace in Gaza: The UN Palestinian ambassador's perspective with Riyad Mansour
![GZERO World with ian bremmer \u2014 most quotable moments of 2024 | Pictured: Riyad Mansour with quotes from him](https://www.gzeromedia.com/media-library/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer-u2014-most-quotable-moments-of-2024-pictured-riyad-mansour-with-quotes-from-him.png?id=55321823&width=980)
Aired on July 5, 2024
Ian Bremmer sits down with Palestinian Ambassador to the United Nations Riyad Mansour for a candid interview about his role in the UN, the war in Gaza, and how it might end. Watch the full episode.
An exclusive interview with Argentina's radical new president, Javier Milei
![GZERO World with ian bremmer \u2014 most quotable moments of 2024 | Pictured: Javier Milei with quotes from him](https://www.gzeromedia.com/media-library/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer-u2014-most-quotable-moments-of-2024-pictured-javier-milei-with-quotes-from-him.png?id=55321827&width=980)
Aired on August 2, 2024
Argentine President Javier Milei defends his radical approach to saving Argentina’s struggling economy, his commitment to aligning with liberal democracies, and his pragmatic stance on international trade and alliances. Watch the full interview.
Why António Guterres believes the UN should lead on AI
![GZERO World with ian bremmer \u2014 most quotable moments of 2024 | Pictured: Ant\u00f3nio Guterres with quotes from him](https://www.gzeromedia.com/media-library/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer-u2014-most-quotable-moments-of-2024-pictured-ant-u00f3nio-guterres-with-quotes-from-him.png?id=55321840&width=980)
Aired on September 20, 2024
In an exclusive interview for GZERO World, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres sat with Ian Bremmer on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly to discuss his vision for the future of the UN during his last term in office. Watch the full interview.
Iran's next move: Interview with VP Javad Zarif
![GZERO World with ian bremmer \u2014 most quotable moments of 2024 | Pictured: Mohammad Javad Zarif with quotes from him](https://www.gzeromedia.com/media-library/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer-u2014-most-quotable-moments-of-2024-pictured-mohammad-javad-zarif-with-quotes-from-him.png?id=55321848&width=980)
Aired on October 4, 2024
Ian Bremmer sits down with Iran's new Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif just days before the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to discuss the escalating conflict in the Middle East and where Iran stands. Watch the full episode.
Roberta Metsola on whether Europe can become a global superpower
![GZERO World with ian bremmer \u2014 most quotable moments of 2024 | Pictured: Roberta Metsola with quotes from her](https://www.gzeromedia.com/media-library/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer-u2014-most-quotable-moments-of-2024-pictured-roberta-metsola-with-quotes-from-her.png?id=55321866&width=980)
Aired on October 20, 2024
European Parliament President Roberta Metsola discusses Europe’s future amid an ongoing migrant crisis, the war in Ukraine, and an economic slowdown. Can the bloc’s 27 member states stay united? Watch the full episode.
Oren Cass on the case for Trump's tariffs
![GZERO World with ian bremmer \u2014 most quotable moments of 2024 | Pictured: Oren Cass with quotes from him](https://www.gzeromedia.com/media-library/gzero-world-with-ian-bremmer-u2014-most-quotable-moments-of-2024-pictured-oren-cass-with-quotes-from-him.png?id=55321868&width=980)
Aired on December 6, 2024
Trump has vowed to raise tariffs, slash business regulation, and deport millions of undocumented immigrants, policies he says will put Americans first. Oren Cass outlines what that will mean practically for workers and consumers. Watch the full episode.
Don’t miss an episode in 2025!
GZERO World airs nationwide on US public television (check local listings), and new digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube.
Ambassador Robert Wood of the US raises his hand to vote against the ceasefire resolution at the United Nations Security Council, on November 20, 2024.
US vetoes Gaza ceasefire resolution
US vetoes Gaza ceasefire resolution
The US on Wednesday cast the lone veto to sink a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
Washington said it opposed the measure because of wording that would have allowed Hamas to wait until after a ceasefire to release the roughly 100 remaining hostages that it still holds in Gaza. This is the fourth time the United States has blocked a ceasefire resolution of this kind.
The draft also called for Palestinian civilians in Gaza to be allowed to return to their homes, for the unhindered delivery of humanitarian aid to the strip, and for a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
The resolution’s failure comes as the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to worsen. Earlier this week, unknown armed men looted roughly 100 trucks in a humanitarian convoy, causing food prices in the already-starving enclave to soar. The UN estimates only 16% of the 1.7 million people in central and southern Gaza have received adequate food rations.
Last week a 30 day ultimatum ran out for Israel to improve humanitarian access to the Strip or risk losing some US arms transfers. Washington said Israel had done the bare minimum to satisfy its concerns.
Podcast: The State of the World in 2024 with Ian Bremmer
Listen: The world is grappling with intense political and humanitarian challenges—raging wars, surging nationalism, and a warming climate, to name a few. Yet, we also stand at the brinkof some of the most transformative opportunities in human history. So how do we make sense of the future and what’s next? Ian Bremmer breaks it all down in a special edition of the GZERO World Podcast: The 2024 State of the World.
Each year, Ian examines the biggest political moments (and movements) and shares an honest assessment of where we are… and where we’re going. Most worrying? Leadership, or rather, the glaring lack of it. Nowhere is this clearer than in ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, where everyone claims to want peace, but no one is both willing and able to make it happen. But it’s not all bleak.There are plenty of reasons for optimism. Ian Bremmer discusses the good, the bad, and where we all go from here in his 2024 State of the World, delivered live at the GZERO Summit in Tokyo, Japan.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
After Israel's response to Iran, what's next?
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take to kick off your week. No, not US elections, that'll be next week. This week. Want to talk about the Middle East and the fact that the Israelis almost a month after Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, though most of them didn't get through and no Israeli deaths on the ground, nonetheless, the Israelis expected to respond. And respond they finally have.
Military targets that they focused on. They did some damage, caused more damage to Iran than the Iranians did to Israel during their attack. That's clearly a message that the Israelis intended to send in terms of their ability to have dominance over both escalation and deterrence between the two. Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei, on the back of that, said not to exaggerate or downplay the strikes, that the Iranians will respond, but also the Iranians said that they fully intercepted the Israeli attack. In other words, nothing big to see here. Crude oil down about 6% today. In other words, this is the end of this escalation cycle between Iran and Israel.
Now, I have been critical of the Biden administration's inability to have much of any impact on Israeli decision-making over the course of this war. This time is a little different, they did have some impact here. And in the early days after the Israelis were hit by Iran, and keep in mind the Iranians got that information that the strike was coming to the United States, the US, of course, immediately shared it with Israel and did everything they could to coordinate with allies in the region to defend Israel effectively, which helped to ensure that the Israelis didn't take casualties, significant casualties.
But also the Biden administration saying they really didn't want Israel to engage in strikes against nuclear targets in Iran, against oil targets in Iran. And they did a couple of things for Israel. First, they sent an additional THAAD missile defense system, which they got to Israel and set up within two weeks on the ground, which is incredible fast-tracking to help further defend Israel.
Secondly, they actually took sanctions, put sanctions on additional tankers that were shutting down their transponders and shipping oil illegally for Iranian export. Not everything. The Iranians have over a million barrels a day that they get out, but probably took about 200,000 barrels a day off the market. In other words, that's money that the Iranians no longer have access to that they were able to use for whatever they wanted, including paying for Iranian proxies that target Israel.
In response for that and American diplomacy, the Israelis ended up, I would argue, with a slightly more restrained strike against Iran. They did engage in hits against Iranian missile production facilities, as well as defense against their ... that helps to defend their nuclear, their research program and weapons program, such as it is, which means that Israel has made it very clear to Iran that if they want to do this again, that Iran is not going to be able to defend itself effectively. So the message has been very, very clearly sent.
Of course, it was also helpful for Israel that they were able to kill Sinwar, the Palestinian Hamas leader, in Rafah, in Gaza, over the past couple of weeks. I mean, the Israeli war cabinet is flying high from a military perspective right now. They didn't need to show great capacity against Iran, nor have they, given their recent successes against Hezbollah.
I think it's interesting how Iran is responding to all of this, that we're seeing Iranian leaders, not just on the president and foreign affairs side, who are more reformist in orientation, but also recently Ali Velayati, who's an advisor to the Supreme Leader, saying that the Iranians are very interested in engaging more with the West, specifically with Europe. In other words, with the Iranians seeing that they are clearly on the back foot vis-a-vis Israel, is there any way that they can more effectively engage with the West, normalized relations, maybe end up with more money for their economy that way?
Certainly, I expect that they are also thinking heavily about what else they can do in their nuclear program, either illicitly or maybe with Russian support. But for now, it looks like Israel's policies vis-a-vis Iran have played out successfully, in part because they are the strongest military game without question in town.
That's where we are right now. Those are the latest headlines, and for the next week we're going to be talking a lot about US elections. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Global economy at risk if Middle East conflict expands, says World Bank's Ayhan Kose
While the global economy shows signs of growth and decreasing inflation, the near future involves risks, including the escalation in the Middle East impacting oil prices, strained China-US relations, and an increasingly challenging tariff and trade environment, said Ayhan Kose, World Bank Deputy Chief Economist. He discussed the geopolitical tensions influencing the global economy with GZERO's Tony Maciulis at the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington, DC, in a GZERO Global Stage interview. Kose also addressed the other major economic gathering happening this week: Russia’s 16th annual BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, largely seen as a counterweight to Western-led order. While acknowledging the widening economic and geopolitical divide, Kose emphasized the need for international cooperation. He expressed concern about “the increase in the number of protectionist measures and consequences of that for global trade.” Kose also emphasized the "urgent and important" need for World Bank member nations to continue to support development in poorer countries, a more difficult conversation today as many face their own economic headwinds and the world awaits the results of the 2024 US presidential election.
Israel's next move
And secondly, the US Treasury Department has announced additional sanctions against tankers that have shut off their transponders and are helping the Iranians to illegally export significant amounts of sanction-breaking oil. Prices can go up on the back of that. An unusual thing for the Americans to do a few weeks before the election, but shows just how concerned they are about potential escalation in the region. So let me give you some context here. First point. On the one hand, the Americans have sent THAAD systems to Israel before. So it's not like there aren't any American soldiers on the ground operating in Israel. This is not such a game-changer. In fact, such a decision was made not only years ago, but also after October 7th. But it is notable that it comes a year later on the back of potential significant escalation, both in the Northern front that we're already seeing and with Iran that we might be.
Second point is that the oil prices continue to be a little bit under 80 bucks. OPEC has a lot of spare capacity they could put on the market. China continues to have pretty poor numbers in terms of demand. So this isn't likely to have the American move to hit more Iranian oil, isn't likely to have a lot of impact in terms of oil prices. But if the Americans could have stopped what is right now 1.5 million barrels of Iranian export if they could have taken that down and the Iranians are using that money to pay for the Axis of Resistance that's targeting not only Israel but targeting ships in the Middle East, targeting American and UK military assets, why did Biden wait? Why is it only being announced now? And why is it only being announced now in a way that seems to be a gimme for the Israeli Prime Minister and his government in return for not engaging in significant retaliatory escalation against the Iranians?
This is a US policy that continues to look very weak, that continues to be out of step with most of its allies at this point. You see even French President Macron saying that he doesn't want to provide any more military support for Israel. Of course, it's easy for him to say that. He doesn't provide much to begin with. If it was a significant export, I'm sure Macron wouldn't be saying that. But nonetheless, the Americans are on really one very isolated side at this point compared to the rest of the international community, whether you like the United States or you don't. And their ability to influence the Israeli government appears to be virtually zero. And that has been shown with the recent attacks by the Israeli Defense Forces against UN peacekeepers in Lebanon. And we've seen that on the back of those attacks that the United States, France, Spain, Italy, which is a strong right-wing government, but also has a thousand peacekeepers on the ground in Lebanon, all strongly condemning the Israelis for making these attacks.
But not prepared to actually do anything in response and certainly not making the Israelis feel like they need to stop. Now the Israeli perspective is these peacekeepers have not been capable of upholding Security Council resolution that required that Hezbollah pull back from the border area, a buffer zone, that they've been launching military strikes against Israel. And that also Hezbollah fighters are essentially using the presence of the peacekeepers as shields. And that they're operating not on the peacekeeper's bases but in proximity, which makes it harder for the Israelis to go after them. That certainly doesn't justify firing directly on the peacekeepers base, which has happened, and which now the IDF says a mistake. In return, the Israeli Prime Minister has called on the UN Secretary-General to withdraw the peacekeepers. I find it implausible that the Israeli Prime Minister doesn't realize that the Secretary-General has actually no authority over the peacekeepers.
They're sent there on the basis of the Security Council. So in other words, if the Israeli Prime Minister wants to make a demand, he's making it of the permanent members of the Security Council like the United States and China and France, the UK and Russia. He apparently doesn't want to make that statement. But again, the point here is the comparative impunity, and the major headlines, of course, are in the last 24 hours, around four Israeli soldiers that have been targeted and killed, as well as a large number of injuries on Israeli military bases by Hezbollah drones. Hezbollah is much more capable than Hamas has been, and there will be more significant Israeli casualties as this war continues. But most of the casualties, of course, even though it's not most of the headlines, will be among the Lebanese, among the Hezbollah fighters, and among the Lebanon civilian population, of which we've seen about 2,000 killed so far.
And that is because the military dominance in the region, again, both offense and defense and intelligence and surveillance, is overwhelmingly in the hands of Israel. So if there's going to be significant escalation in the war going forward, that escalation will be decided overwhelmingly by the Israeli government. And so that's what is particularly interesting to watch over the coming weeks. I am not expecting very much against Iran, frankly. The fact that the Israelis have already waited for a couple of weeks takes a lot of the urgency out of that. The fact that the Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said, "It will be the time of our choosing and what we do, they'll know that it was us, but they won't know how we did it," implies something that is a much more targeted attack than lots and lots of bombs raining down against, you know, sort of a nuclear facility or against oil production.
It would not surprise me if it was a high-level assassination, for example, against the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the IRGC. Especially because we already saw that when the Trump administration assassinated Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian response was virtually nothing. So there's precedent for that, and the Iranians have very little at this point that they can do that wouldn't hurt them a hell of a lot more than they can hurt Israel or Israel's allies. So that's where we are right now. A war that continues to escalate with a lot of suffering on the back of it. An incredibly ineffective US policy in the region, and everybody else pretty much sitting on the sidelines.