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Ian Bremmer: Trump is a symptom of a dysfunctional "G-Zero world"
In a political environment plagued by instability and polarization, who is poised to benefit? 2025 has kicked the G-Zero world into high gear: a world characterized by a growing vacuum in global governance. The anti-establishment wave and anti-incumbency trend that swept major democracies this past year underscore the dramatic shift. President-elect Donald Trump is the leading symptom, in many ways, the most powerful beneficiary of the G-Zero, argues Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report. He says that America’s embrace of a more “transactional worldview,” indifference to rule of law, and focus on rule of jungle will play to Trump’s hand and agenda. Bremmer adds that a G-Zero world and “a consolidated America First are the same thing, but jut from different perspectives. G-Zero is what happens with everybody else, and America First is what happens with the Americans.” With a tipsy-turvy year ahead, the world will be watching how Trump will navigate this moment in time.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 6 here.
- Three reasons for optimism in a leaderless world ›
- The rise of a leaderless world: Why 2025 marks a turning point, with Francis Fukuyama ›
- How Trump 2.0 could reshape US foreign policy, with the New York Times' David Sanger ›
- How will Trump 2.0 approach foreign policy? ›
- Quick Take: Trump's foreign policy legacy - the wins ›
Get ready for Trump's team of China hawks, warns The New Yorker's Susan Glasser
China is in for an unprecedentedly tough time. Donald Trump’s cabinet of China hawks signals a potentially more confrontational stance with Beijing, a foreign policy approach that will function not unlike the first Trump administration's over Russia, says The New Yorker's Susan Glasser during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report. Glasser argues that it will be a kind of push-pull relationship between more establishment, old-fashioned conservative types and “Trump’s own impulses and instincts." She adds that “he’s going to want to keep American business tycoons happy. He’s got Elon Musk whispering in his ear at all times.” So, to what extent will the China hawks be able to impose their agenda in a Trump 2.0 administration?
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 6 here.
Francis Fukuyama on the new leaderless global order
In a wide-ranging conversation on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Francis Fukuyama warns that the United States is losing its ability to lead globally as political polarization and a lack of bipartisan consensus undermine its long-term influence. He argues that America’s retreat from the liberal world order it once championed creates a dangerous power vacuum, inviting instability and the resurgence of the law of the jungle in international relations.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
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Top Risks 2025: America's role in the crumbling global order
Is international order on the precipice of collapse? 2025 is poised to be a turbulent year for the geopolitical landscape. From Canada and South Korea to Japan and Germany, the world faces a “deepening and rare absence of global leadership with more chaos than any time since the 1930s,” says Eurasia Group chairman Cliff Kupchan during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report. Kupchan highlights that the US is at the heart of it. He warns that it is a country that has “abdicated its throne,” which has created a dynamic that is “very prone to vacuums and misperceptions.” With no other country willing or able to take the reins and lead, the world is left in a vulnerable position facing unprecedented geopolitical risks.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 6 here.
Unpacking the biggest global threats of 2025
With political instability plaguing US allies, from Canada and South Korea to Japan and Germany, 2025 promises plenty of geopolitical storms. To get you up to speed, GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer, Cliff Kupchan, and Jon Lieber, as well as the New Yorker’s Susan Glasser, to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report.
One name came up over and over again: Donald Trump. The incoming US president promises tariffs that could upend the global economy, crash relations with China, and worsen the chaos in ungoverned spaces. With Russia still running rogue, Iran badly bruised on the world stage, and AI changing geopolitics — not necessarily for the better — Kupchan characterized the current situation as the riskiest since World War II.
Bremmer said that all of the above, from Washington to Ouagadougou, is merely a symptom of the biggest risk facing the planet: that the G-Zero world, one in which no power can bring order to the international system, is on the rise.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 6.
South Korean authorities get extension to Yoon arrest warrant
South Korean anti-corruption authorities reached a deal with police to extend their warrant against impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on Monday after failing to arrest him on Friday. A six-hour standoff with presidential security in the official residence amounted to nothing, and the corruption investigators have asked the National Police Agency to take over the responsibility of detaining Yoon. Authorities have not disclosed the new extension's expiration date.
Police are in uncharted waters, however, as no previous South Korean president has been arrested before being removed from office. Yoon was impeached in December, but vacancies on the constitutional court have prevented his official removal. Meanwhile, his party is playing for time – hoping to stall long enough to allow the high court to rule on a case that could render the opposition leader ineligible to run in elections to replace Yoon.
The gridlock is starting to chafe allies, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had expressed “serious concerns” during talks in Seoul with his counterpart on Monday. But Blinken also praised the strong response of South Korean institutions to Yoon’s attempt to seize power through martial law.
North Korea, which has taken a cautious approach thus far amid Seoul’s domestic upheaval, used Blinken’s visit as an opportunity to test a medium-range missile with a supposedly hypersonic capacity. We’re watching how Pyongyang approaches potential provocations once the Biden administration leaves the scene.
2024: Ten big moments when politics and culture collided
The line between entertainment and politics seems blurrier than ever these days, and not only because the most powerful leader in the world is once again going to be, among many other things, a former reality TV star.
The ubiquity of social media, the bitterness of political polarization, and the ferocity of the culture wars leaves almost no aspect of our societies untouched by politics these days.
Here’s a look at ten big moments from 2024 when popular culture shaped, or was shaped by, the biggest political stories of the year.
A “Childless Cat Lady” from Pennsylvania endorses Kamala Harris
In what was perhaps the biggest celebrity endorsement of the US presidential campaign, pop superstar Taylor Swift announced to her 280 million Instagram followers in mid September that she’d be voting for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
The endorsement from the year’s most streamed artist wasn’t exactly a surprise – Swift went for Biden in 2020 and has been outspoken on liberal and progressive issues for years. But it provided a shot in the arm for the Dems after a “cruel summer” largely defined by Joe Biden’s bruising and way-too-late withdrawal from the race, and Donald Trump’s seemingly-miraculous evasion of an assassin’s bullet.
Notably, Swift signed her post, which showed her holding one of her three cats, as “A childless cat lady.” That was a swipe at Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance, who had earlier criticized women who choose to buck traditional gender roles by having cats but not kids.
It was one of the many ways that gender played into the election, with the Democrats emphasizing issues that were important to many women, such as protecting the right to abortion in a a post-Roe world, while the Trump camp, looking to draw the largely untapped support of young male voters, leaned into messages of macho masculinity and the idealization of more traditional gender roles.
Hulk Hogan rips his shirt off at the RNC
“Let Trumpamania run willlllld, brother!!!” Speaking of macho masculinity, in July, former pro-wrestler Hulk Hogan took the stage at the GOP convention, and in a fit of indignant rage about the attempted assassination of his “hero” Donald Trump, threw down his blazer and ripped off his tank top to reveal a Trump Vance shirt. The crowd went WILD.
It was the craziest on-stage moment at a GOP convention at least since that time Clint Eastwood lectured an empty chair in Tampa in 2012. And as pop culture clashups go, the 71-year old Hogan, his steroidal intensity undiminished by the ravages of age, was something of a time warp: a throwback to the over-the t0p world of 1980s and 1990s celebrity and pro-wrestling culture where Trump himself once held court.
But the mutual embrace between Donald Trump and the world of combat sports was part of his broader strategy to reach those crucial young male voters. He locked up the support of Dana White, the head of Ultimate Fighting Championship, and frequented podcasts popular with fans of mixed martial arts and boxing: perhaps no stop was more influential than his three hour sit-down with the biggest pod of all, The Joe Rogan Experience.In the end, it worked. Trump won over huge numbers of young male voters, particularly in Black and Latino communities – one of the keys to his victory.
Supper scene cooks up controversy at the Paris Olympics
It was the shot seen ‘round the world. The Paris Olympics four hour long opening ceremony in July briefly included a scene featuring more than a dozen dancers and drag queens gathered at a feast table, on either side of a woman in a halo-like medieval headdress. The feast, revealed under a large cloche, was a quasi-naked man painted blue on a bed of fruit.
Did it look a lot like an ultra-progressive remix of Leonardo Da Vinci’s Last Supper? Many Christians and church leaders thought so. It was a “disgrace,” according to Donald Trump. “The war on our faith and traditional values knows no bounds,” tweeted House Speaker Mike Johnson. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said it showed “the moral void of the West.” Even the pope got involved, with the Vatican denouncing the “offense to numerous Christians and .. believers of other religions.”
The ceremony’s artistic director later said, maybe a little improbably, that the reference was actually to a classical Dionysian feast and that the scene was meant to “talk about diversity.” The Olympic committee apologized for offending Christians.
But as ever, the battle lines of the ongoing culture war between conservatives and progressives were brightly drawn – and everyone on all sides saw the scene precisely as they wanted to.
South Korea forces North Korea to face the music
What is all that racket? Oh, it’s just the South Korean government using 20-foot tall speakers to blare K-pop hits across the Demilitarized Zone towards North Korea.
The ear-splitting move, made in June, was part of an escalating propaganda war between the two sides. Earlier, North Korea had begun sending hot air balloons filled with trash and excrement across the border to the South, in response to South Korean activist groups which had sent their own balloons northward laden with propaganda leaflets and USB thumb-drives full of soap operas and music banned in North Korea’s ultra-totalitarian society.
All of this loudly echoed a broader deterioration in relations between the Koreas this year. With talks on the nature of any potential denuclearization of the North long-stalled, Pyongyang finally renounced any prospect of reunification, blew up cross-border liaison offices, and cut all road connections with the South.
With North Korean Supreme leader Kim Jong-un’s pal Donald Trump returning to the White House next year, and South Korea’s politics in chaos after the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, keep an eye on how both the politics, and the music, play across the Korean peninsula next year.Oscar winner refutes “hijacking of Jewishness” at the Oscars
Few global issues were, or remain, as polarizing in 2024 as the conflict in Gaza, and those tensions took center stage early in the year at the Oscars, when Director Jonathan Glazer won Best Picture for his film Zone of Interest, a portrayal of the banal family life of the Nazi official in charge of Auschwitz.
In his acceptance speech Glazer, who is Jewish, said his film was a testament to the evils of “dehumanization”, and that he “refuted” those who “hijack Jewishness and the Holocaust” to justify Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories.
The blowback was immediate. The Anti-Defamation League, pro-Israel leaders, and more than a thousand other Jewish film professionals blasted Glazer, with some accusing him of a “modern blood libel.” Just as surely, critics of Israel’s occupation and those calling for a ceasefire in Israel’s war against Hamas leapt to Glazer’s defense.
The episode underscored not only the deep divisions within America about the war in Gaza and the US relationship to Israel, but the political and generational splits within America’s Jewish community itself over this issue.French striker Kylian Mbappé gives an assist to President Macron
Look, we’re not going to touch the heated debate about who the best soccer player in the world is right now. But for a great number of people, it’s 25-year old French striker Kylian Mbappé, who plays for Real Madrid and is the captain of the French national team.
Over the summer, Mbappé took his star power from the pitch into politics, when he weighed in on France’s snap elections. After the far right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen won the first round on a platform calling for a fierce crackdown on immigration, Mbappé, who is of Cameroonian and Algerian descent, said “It’s catastrophic, we really hope that this will change and that everyone will mobilise to vote... and vote for the right side.”
He wasn’t the only member of Les Bleus to weigh in against Le Pen. Others did too. After all, the French soccer team itself has long been at the center of the fraught debate over French immigration and identity – perhaps never more so than when a majority non-white team won the World Cup in 2018.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s coalition managed to eke out the second round, but only by concocting a strange bedfellows alliance with the far left. National Rally, meanwhile, rang up its best election result ever, setting up Le Pen for a decent shot on goal if she decides to run for president in the 2027 election.Gaza war takes center stage at Eurovision
Politics always – always – crashes the party at the annual summit of kitsch and crooning known as “Eurovision.” In recent years the conflicts in Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh have both spilled onto the stage.
This year, it was Gaza. As 20-year old Israeli performer Eden Golan belted out her entry “Hurricane” she was immediately met with boos and cries of “Free Palestine!”
The song itself was controversial from the start. The contest’s organizers, who try their best to keep politics out of the affair, had rejected an earlier version called “October Rain,” an Israeli perspective on Hamas’ Oct. 7 2023 terror rampage, which killed more than 1,200 people.
By the time Eurovision rolled around seven months later, the IDF had visited massive destruction on Gaza, killing tens of thousands, displacing nearly all of the enclave’s two million residents, and drawing accusations of war crimes. The “Free Palestine” protest movement was in full flower, and it popped up at the Eurovision contest ahead of Golan’s performance.
In the end, “Hurricane” placed fifth in the overall contest. Like many Eurovision entries over the years, it is certain to be less memorable than the controversy that surrounded it.
Dead Austrian economist makes UFC cameo
In a surreal, instantly viral moment that even the shrewdest bookie could scarcely have predicted, Brazilian UFC fighter Renato Moicano in February gave a post-fight shoutout to… an influential school of 20th century European economists.
“If you care about your f***** country,” Moicano declared, his cheek still oozing blood after a bruising bout against France’s Benoit Saint Denis, “read Ludwig von Mises and the six lessons of the Austrian economic school motherf*****!”
Now, it’s not every day that a mixed martial artist runs your political economy book club, but Moicano’s comment reflected the rising popularity in Latin America of the so-called “Austrian school” economists, a fiercely laissez-faire group who despised even the merest hint of “socialism.”
Argentina’s “anarcho-libertarian” president Javier Milei, who has taken a “chainsaw” approach to government spending, is probably the world’s most prominent Austrian school disciple these days.
But Mises’ ideas are popular among a broader set of new right populists in the Americas and Europe who see themselves at war with both “globalism” and an overbearing administrative state.
“F*** all of these motherf****** globalists trying to push this politically corrupt agenda,” Moicano went on. “If you want to talk about politics and the economy, read ‘Democracy: The God that Failed by Hans-Hermann!’”A big fat Indian wedding stokes controversy
If you think weddings are getting crazy expensive these days, you’re absolutely right. In mid July, Anant Ambani, a son of India’s richest man, married his fiance Radhika Merchant, a pharma industry heir, in a months-long nuptial extravaganza that cost some $600 million in total.
The 2,000 person guest list for several pre-wedding parties and the event itself was a who’s who of the global political, fashion, and cultural elite: the Kardashians, Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, Indian PM Narendra Modi, two former UK prime ministers, the Jonas Brothers. There were private concerts by, among others, Rihanna, Katy Perry, Justin Bieber, and Pitbull.
Around the world, people followed the festivities, the outfits, the gossip online. And not all of them liked what they saw.
The over the top opulence of it all – and the chummy relationship between the country’s ultra-rich and its politicians – stoked criticism among those who pointed out that India is, after all, a country where some 200 million people languish in poverty, and just 1% of the country controls 40% of the wealth. To put things in perspective, at India’s current per capita income of $2,500, it would take an average person 240,000 years to pay for a wedding like this in cash.Honorary mention: your opinion.
Did we miss anything in this list that you’d have included? If so, let us know here and we may include it in an upcoming edition of the GZERO Daily.
Trump, Trudeau, and the art of the deal
Donald Trump, whatever else you might say about him, has a sense of humor.
“It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada,” he posted at midnight on Monday. “I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in depth talks on Tariffs and Trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all!”
Trudeau, on the other hand, is a straight man.
“I think there’s a number of folks in different countries, and I won’t point out any particular one, where folks are going to be wondering about the choice they maybe made in elections,” he said earnestly in Halifax on Monday. “Let’s not be that kind of country in Canada … Let’s not fall into an easy trap of voting for change for the worse.”
Trudeau followed that with a lament Tuesday about Kamala Harris’ defeat, which led to a nasty attack by Trump supporter Elon Musk, who predicted Trudeau — whom he called a “tool” — would soon be gone.
The Trump team has decided to make Trudeau a target for pro-wrestling-style trash talk, and Trudeau is ill-equipped to respond in kind because Canadians are rattled by Trump’s threats and have little confidence in their unpopular prime minister. Ontario Premier Doug Ford, not Trudeau, threatened to cut off energy exports to the US after Trudeau met with Canadian provincial leaders on Wednesday.
Trump has all the cards
Trudeau said it would be “a little more challenging” to deal with Trump this time than last, when they together negotiated a trade agreement, but that is an understatement.
Eight years ago, when Trump took office for the first time, Trudeau had an approval rating of 50%, the Conservative opposition was in disarray, provincial leaders were mostly cooperative, and as few as 15% of Canadians approved of Trump.
As Trump gets ready to take office again, 26% of Canadians approve of him, compared with only 23% who approve of Trudeau. Yes, you read that right: In Canada, Trump is more popular than Trudeau.
In 2016, Trudeau was seen as glamorous. Now, he is the target of derision from conservatives in Canada, the United States, and around the world, a poster boy for the kind of woke liberalism that is in retreat everywhere.
This time, Trump holds all the cards, and Trudeau is in no position to bluff.
When Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian (and Mexican) imports if Canada doesn’t stop migrants and drugs from crossing the border, Canadian Conservatives urged the prime minister to take action immediately, proposed kicking Mexico out of the long-standing Three Amigos trade pact — do whatever he can, immediately — to prevent Trump from wrecking the Canadian economy.
What Trump wants
This is how Trump operates, says Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
“Part of his negotiating tactic is to open with a threat, underneath which comes a request,” Sands says. “And with the first term it was, ‘I’m going to tear up NAFTA.’ We all ran in circles for a while, and then it became, ‘Well, unless Canada and Mexico come to the table and agree to negotiate to fix it.’ And in the end, that was the most important part of the message.”
Trump is a New York property developer, long accustomed to theatrical public negotiations.
“My style of deal-making is quite simple and straightforward,” Trump (or his ghostwriter) wrote in his 1987 book, “The Art of the Deal.” “I aim very high, and then I just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I’m after. Sometimes I settle for less than I sought, but in most cases, I still end up with what I want.”
The problem for Canadians is that it is not yet clear what Trump wants, except to dunk on Trudeau. He has said that he wants Canada to do more to stop migrants and fentanyl crossing into the United States, but the scale of the problem at the northern border is a tiny fraction of the problem facing the southern border.
Telegraphing chaos
Tyler Meredith, who was the lead economic adviser to Trudeau until last year, thinks Trump is trying to establish Canada as a problem because the northern border will be the scene of chaotic events when Trump starts deporting migrants.
“I think Canada has been pulled into that in part because he’s focused on the problem vis-à-visMexico, but he’s also thinking about it in the Canadian context because he knows that some of those people that may be deported, or who will self-deport as asylum claimants, are going to end up in Canada,” he says. “So he’s kind of saying, ‘Look, be ready, because I’m about to do this, and I don’t want to be the one blamed for it, because I’ve given you sufficient warning.’”
Meredith thinks a tighter border may not be what Trump really wants — increased defense spending and changes to the USMCA trade agreement are likely what he will get around to eventually.
That could be painful for Canada. Trump’s appointments signal anything but business as usual. Robert Lighthizer, who provided a steady hand as Trump’s trade representative last time, is out. Peter Navarro, who in 2018 said “there’s a special place in hell” for Trudeau, is in.
The Canadians will be looking to start serious talks with calm officials, like Lighthizer, but may instead find themselves dealing with more volatile people, like Navarro, who will take their cues from the trash-talking commander in chief.
Trudeau knows that his only chance of political survival hinges on managing this file properly, and it’s ultimately in Trump’s political interest to keep the trucks moving across the border, but Trump has the opportunity and, seemingly, the desire to keep bullying Trudeau until they work out a deal.