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Germany’s Friedrich Merz in front of poker table.
Germany’s Friedrich Merz and a bold political gamble
Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia, Poland’s Law and Justice, and Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) parties have so far remained outside the bloc, but the European Conservatives and Reformists group, which includes Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, published a letter last month warning Europe’s center-right establishment to work more closely with the Patriots to obstruct left-wing migration, green, and other “woke” policies. Part of the goal, argued the letter’s authors, is to build durable new ties with US President Donald Trump.
This is the backdrop for a clever political maneuver from Friedrich Merz, leader of the traditional center-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and the prohibitive favorite to become Germany’s next chancellor following a general election on Feb. 23. Merz has wrestled for weeks with the question of how to peel voter support away from the anti-immigrant AfD — without appearing to cooperate with a party that many Germans consider openly fascist.
During a late January parliamentary vote on toughening Germany’s asylum and refugee policy, Merz’s CDU accepted support from the AfD for a tougher border approach without publicly seeking it. For the first time in the country’s postwar history, a non-binding motion passed the Bundestag with the help of the far right, shattering a decades-old taboo. In response, the AfD’s many critics among political officials, the media, and the public turned the rhetoric up to 11. Merz stood accused of tearing down the political firewall that separates Germany’s center right from the far right and throwing open the “gates of Hell.” Protests, some of them violent, erupted across the country. The measure was narrowly defeated.
Then came the political jiu-jitsu from Merz. The political veteran refused to apologize. He argued that he had not sought support from the AfD and that the political firewall that continues to leave the nativist party in the isolation ward remains fully intact, vowing to never form a coalition with it. But, argued Merz, the new immigration restrictions were the correct policy for Germany. They remain the right policy, even when supported by the wrong people.
Next came a polling surprise. Not only did this dust-up fail to damage Merz’s pre-election popularity ratings, but the display of political backbone strengthened his party’s position in pre-election polling. We shouldn’t be surprised. Merz is widely viewed as a capable technocrat but not an exciting politician. His move on migrant policy, and the willingness to take hits for perceived cooperation with the AfD, is seen as a major political gamble on the eve of an election he’s already favored to win.
By both defying political consensus and then reaffirming that direct cooperation with the AfD remains out of bounds, Merz has presented himself as a more forceful leader than current Chancellor Olaf Scholz. By breaking the taboo on tougher migration and asylum rules, he has also boosted the credibility of political arguments that equivocation on these policies by Scholz and his government has done more to boost the AfD than Merz’s party has done or will do.
Migration has been the primary fuel for the AfD’s surge over the past decade as the number of asylum-seekers has overwhelmed a German system designed for much smaller numbers of people. The CDU/CSU can now feel vindicated in their migration policy strategy and can open more space for tougher policies backed by centrist parties, robbing the AfD of its go-to campaign topic. In fact, it was Christian Lindner — leader of the pro-business Free Democrats and the man whose dismissal as finance minister in November collapsed Scholz’s coalition government — who made the argument most forcefully: “Democracy must deliver so that people don’t look for an alternative to democracy.”
If the CDU/CSU wins on Feb. 23 and Merz becomes the next chancellor, highly likely outcomes, he may have scored a political win that other center-right parties in Europe have consistently missed. In France and Britain, traditional conservatives have taken a migration beating. Following last July’s second-round parliamentary elections in France, Le Pen’s populist-nationalist National Rally won more than 37% of votes to just 5.4% for the traditional center-right Les Republicans. In the UK, the Conservative Party, which held power for 14 years before losing to Labour late last year, finished third place (!) in a poll published last week. Nigel Farage’s UK Reform Party, the most hardline anti-immigration choice on offer, has pushed past Labour to take the lead, though within the poll’s margin of error.
Has Merz changed the political rules on how Europe’s center-right handles the always emotive topic of immigration? Time will tell. If so, Merz’s bold political gamble might be remembered as a game-changer well beyond Germany.