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JD Vance stuns Munich conference with critique on European democracy
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: A Quick Take from the Munich Security Conference. Just finished with the opening speech for Vice President JD Vance. Before that, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. Literally standing room only across the conference. I can't remember the last time it was so busy. And so busy because so many people believe that the NATO and the transatlantic alliance are at a crossroads, are facing a time of crisis.
First, the good news. The recognition on the part of the Europeans that action on their part is urgent is pretty consistent across the board. That a 2% spend on defense is not enough, that they have to take much more of a leadership role on Ukraine. That they have to be much more competitive in terms of growth. That indeed many of the criticisms that are being levied on the Europeans by Trump, as well as by Democrats and Republicans in the United States are things they have not taken adequately seriously, and now they do.
I think the level of urgency, the recognition of crisis is true across the board. The willingness to take action is a different story. We will see that over the course of the coming months, but there's no question it is significant.
Go beyond that to what JD Vance had to say. This speech did not include a mention of Russia and Ukraine. This is a speech to the Munich Security Conference to mention separately of elections in Romania overturned by their constitutional court, politicized questions about that to be sure. But not a speech that resonated or landed well for the Europeans in the audience. They were getting a lecture on freedom of speech and democracy from the United States. They were not getting a sense of how strong and secure the alliance needed to be.
JD Vance was talking about democracy for as opposed to protecting from. The Security Conference is of course much more about protecting from. It's about what kind of external threats exist to NATO, which is the reason it exists. And to the extent that Europeans are concerned about the future of NATO, a lot of it is coming from inside the house, a European sense that the Americans are not committed to them anymore. In fact, Defense Minister of Germany, Pistorius actually yelled out during JD Vance's speech, "This is unacceptable." I've never seen anything like that from a European leader during a major US plenary here at the Munich Security Conference before coming here for about 15 years. So that was quite surprising.
Having said all of that, when the vice president met with the German federal president earlier in the day, he was much more willing to talk constructively about working together on Ukraine, especially in terms of having the Ukrainians at the table, including the Europeans. How essential it'd be for everybody to work together to ensure that the Ukrainians can be reconstructed. That they'll have security guarantees and defense.
So to a degree, what we are seeing is a speech for Vance's domestic audience in the United States, as well as some of the anti-EU Euro-skeptic populace in Europe, including the AfD, the Alternative for Deutschland, who, of course, their support is going to the polls in a couple of weeks just like the rest of this country, Germany. But still, the level of tension here is extremely high. The level of trust has been reduced. And pretty much everyone I've talked to in this conference believes that the Russians today are in a considerably stronger position than they were in 48 hours ago. The Chinese are in a stronger position than they were in 48 hours ago. And that's something pretty much nobody in this conference wants to say, wants to hear. That's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Police takes pictures of a car after some 28 people were hurt when a car driven by an Afghan asylum seeker plowed into a crowd in Munich, Germany, February 13, 2025.
Third attack by migrant in three months heightens tensions ahead of German election
A 24-year-old Afghan man plowed a white Mini Cooper into a crowd in Munich on Thursday, injuring at least 28 people in the third attack by a migrant in Germany in three months.
The incident comes just 10 days before nationwide elections in which the German far right is on track for its biggest victory since World War II, with polls showing the anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland party, or AfD, cruising to a strong second-place finish behind Friedrich Merz’s conservative coalition.
Bavarian Premier Markus Söder — from the sister party in Merz’s center-right alliance — described Thursday’s incident as a likely “terrorist attack.”
In January, a 28-year-old Afghan man wielding a knife attacked a group of preschool children in a park in the southern city of Aschaffenburg, killing two, including a 2-year-old boy. In December, a 50-year-old Saudi Arabian national rammed a BMW into a crowded holiday market in the eastern city of Magdeburg, killing six and injuring 300.
Thursday’s assault came the same day another Afghan migrant in his 20s with suspected jihadist motives went on trial for allegedly killing a police officer and wounding five others in a stabbing rampage at an anti-Islam rally in the western city of Mannheim last May.
Despite ruling out any alliance with the AfD, Merz’s coalition and the far-right party voted together to nearly pass legislation last month calling on Germany to turn back far more migrants at its border. The AfD, meanwhile, has pledged to fight for mass deportations under a policy Europe’s anti-immigrant parties are calling “remigration.”
“The safety of the people in Germany will be our top priority. We will consistently enforce law and order,” Merz wrote in a post on X in response to the attack. “Everyone must feel safe in our country again. Something must change in Germany.”
Health workers bring a patient for surgery, at the CBCA Ndosho Hospital, a few days after the M23 rebel group seized the town of Goma, in Goma, North Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, on Feb. 1, 2025.
Rebels advance, diplomacy stalls in the DRC
Is diplomacy an option at all? On Friday, the 16-nation South African Development Community called for a summit with eight member countries of the East African Community to “deliberate on the way forward regarding the security situation in the DRC. Rwandan leader Paul Kagame skipped the virtual meeting but was present at an earlier one on Wednesday, which DRC President Felix Tshisekedi did not attend. While Kigali expressed support for a summit, other states accuse it of backing M23 – something it denies.
How is the international community reacting? Germany has canceled aid discussions with Rwanda, and the United Kingdom is reevaluating its assistance as well. US President Donald Trump described the crisis this week as a “very serious problem,” and the State Department has advised US citizens to evacuate. But Western governments’ long-running support for Rwanda is tempering their response – creating the potential for China and Russia to gain more regional influence.
A barbed-wire fence is seen at the site of the former Nazi German concentration and extermination camp Auschwitz-Birkenau prior to the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the camp in Brzezinka, Poland.
Hard Numbers: Commemorating Auschwitz liberation, South Korea’s Yoon indicted, Trump fires IGs, Germans protest far right, Rubio freezes US aid, Ancient statue trashed
80: Monday marks 80 years since the liberation of the Auschwitz death camp in Poland. Dozens of survivors of the Nazi camp — where 960,000 Jews and 1.1 million people total were murdered — will be on hand for the commemoration alongside world leaders and royalty. The US Presidential Delegation includes Steve Witkoff, US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Howard Lutnick, nominee for Secretary of Commerce, and Charles Kushner, father of Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.
1: Impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol was indicted on Sunday, becoming the first sitting South Korean president formally charged while still in office. He faces charges of insurrection for briefly imposing martial law on Dec. 3. The indictment keeps Yoon in detention — something prosecutors decided to do after the court refused to extend Yoon’s arrest warrant.
18: Late Friday, the Trump White House fired 18 inspectors general, including IGs for the Defense Department, State Department, Health and Human Services Department, and the Department of Labor, sparing those at the Justice Department and the Department of Homeland Security. One of the fired IGs says he expects legal challenges to result, and, on Saturday, Democratic lawmakers decried the move as unlawful, expressing their “grave concern” in a letter to the president.
4,500: Protests erupted across Germany on Saturday in a “sea of light” rally against the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, party ahead of the country’s general election on Feb. 23. The protests kicked off as the AfD launched its campaign, with party leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla set to address an audience of 4,500 supporters in the central city of Halle. Billionaire Elon Musk again shared his support for AfD, appearing via video link at the event before Weidel’s speech.
60 billion: Sec. of State Marco Rubio ordered a freeze on US foreign aid on Friday, threatening what amounted to roughly $60 billion in 2023. While Rubio exempted emergency food programs, the move imperils aid used to support health, education, and development programs, as well as anti-corruption and security efforts. The full extent of the impact is still being assessed, and a review will be conducted over the next three months, resulting in Rubio making recommendations on future US foreign aid to President Donald Trump.
2,000: One man’s trash is indeed another man’s treasure. Archaeologists in Greece are analyzing a marble statue of a woman found in a garbage bag in Neoi Epivates, near the port city of Thessaloniki. The headless statue is believed to be more than 2,000 years old, dating from the Hellenistic era between 320 and 30 BCE. Once the evaluation is completed, the statue will be returned to the local antiquities authority for preservation and further study.
Container ships in front of the port of Bremerhaven.
How scared should the world be of Trump’s economic threats?
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump used his social media platform to threatenVladimir Putin with “high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States” unless he struck a bargain over Ukraine.
There’s just one problem: Russia has very little trade with the US. Americans imported just $2.8 billion in goods from Russia from Jan. to Nov. 2024, less than a tenth of the pre-war figure and less than 1% of all US imports over the same time period. The extensive sanctions already in place have hardly brought Moscow to its knees, and arguably benefited US rivals like China, Iran, and North Korea. It’s tough talk, but it’s not likely to push Putin to the table.
China is a different story. Trade with the US added up to an average of $54 billion per month in 2024, and the 60% tariffs Trump threatened to put on China on the campaign trail would cause severe damage to both economies. That may be why Trump is backing off the high sticker number and said Tuesday he is considering imposing at 10% tariffs on Chinese goods as soon as Feb. 1.
Now, 10% is a number that Beijing feels is much more manageable. China is experiencing price deflation — a really damaging phenomenon with one silver lining in that it could mean US consumers wind up paying about the same prices even if Trump hikes tariffs. The central government is also promising funds to stabilize the stock market in the face of potential tariffs and prevent investors from seeking safer shelter for their cash.
The fears are more real in Europe, where Trump threatened to impose tariffs without specifying a rate on Tuesday. Growth in the region’s most important economies is already stagnating, and even small barriers to trade with their most important partner will have serious consequences. Further economic troubles could empower far-right movements across the continent, which may suit Trump just fine. We have our eye on Germany, which will hold elections in precisely one month.
And don’t forget Canada and Mexico, which are staring down the barrel of 25% tariffs that Trump threatened on Tuesday as well. It’s creating a decidedly tense atmosphere in North America, with Canadian Prime Minister (for now) Justin Trudeau promising retaliation, which Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has hinted at as well.
The bottom line? You’re probably in for rising prices in the near future … unless everyone can come up with a reason for Trump to let them slide. We’re watching what Trump says when he speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday.
Annalena Baerbock (Alliance 90/The Greens), Foreign Minister, and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys give a press conference at the Federal Foreign Office.
Germany warns of ‘maximum disruption’ under Trump’s second term
Publicly, Germany might be offering congratulations, but behind the scenes, officials there are expressing concern that Donald Trump’s second presidency could bring “maximum disruption” to the American constitutional order.
A confidential memo from Germany’s ambassador to the US, Andreas Michaelis, addressed to German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, warns of Trump’s pursuit of concentrated presidential power at the expense of Congress and state governments. It cautions that Trump could politicize key democratic institutions, including law enforcement, the media, the legislature, and the courts. (In his inaugural address on Monday, Trump promised not to use the judicial system for political persecution.)
The memoalso flags the growing influence of Big Tech in American politics – a particular sore point in Berlin due to Elon Musk’s support for the far-right Alternative for Germany in upcoming national elections. Michaelis warns that X could gain “co-governing power,” potentially reshaping the First Amendment and that Trump could also take legal action or revoke the licenses of his media critics.Alice Weidel, AfD national chairman, waits on the sidelines of her party's national convention for a TV interview to begin. The AfD wants to adopt its election program in Riesa.
What is “remigration” and why is the German far right calling for it?
European media is abuzz with a new term embraced by Alternative for Germany, or AfD, party chair Alice Weidel during her disturbing speech at the far-right party’s leadership conference on Saturday: “remigration.” AfD has surged to second place in national polls ahead of Germany’s Feb. 23 election – following four years of anemic growth and ineffective government. The party has also enjoyed support from American right-wingers like Elon Musk, who streamed Weidel’s speech on his social media.
What is “remigration”? A term popularized in the German-speaking world by Austrian neo-Nazi Martin Sellner, it refers to forcibly removing immigrants who refuse to integrate with German culture, regardless of their citizenship status. In other words, a German of Turkish or Syrian descent, born and raised in the country, could be expelled, though just how the scheme would work is not clear.
Eagle-eyed readers will recognize this as ethnic cleansing in a fancy dress, and given Weidel’s attempts to portray herself as electable, her embrace of the term is striking. She may have felt emboldened by the AfD’s state-level victories in September in Thuringia, where reactionary Björn Höcke ran the show. Notably, Weidel’s crowds have taken to chanting “Alice für Deutschland!” — a deliberate homophone of the banned Nazi slogan “Alles für Deutschland!”
Will AfD take power? Probably not — they’re 10 percentage points behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union, and they are reviled by all other parties. But given how strongly the far right is performing in Europe, the party’s agenda can push political discourse further to the right. In addition to remigration, Weidel wants to close Germany’s borders, quit using the Euro, and start buying Russian gas.
Even if the AfD loses, it will have its largest-ever voice in the Bundestag. The CDU will need a coalition, but negotiations with the next largest parties are likely to be fraught. We’re watching for extended gridlock in Berlin.
FILE PHOTO: Children eat bread on a street near a flag adopted by the new Syrian rulers, after the ousting of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Damascus, Syria, December 24, 2024.
Syria seeks sanction relief
Diplomats and foreign ministers from17 Arab and EU states convened in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Sunday to discuss the lifting of economic sanctions on Syria, originally imposed during the rule of ousted president Bashar al-Assad. Removing the sanctionsis key to reconstruction efforts for Damascus but will hinge on the new government’s ability to guarantee human rights in the country.
After the meeting, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbockadvocated maintaining sanctions against Assad’s allies but alleviating restrictions that affect the general population. Baerbock alsopledged an additional $51.2 million in aid for essential services. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also announceda meeting of foreign ministers in Brussels on Jan. 27 to discuss further relief measures.
As for the US, while it has not lifted sanctions, last week it issueda six-month exemption for certain transactions with Syrian governing institutions to expedite humanitarian assistance.
We’re watching whether those measures will be extended under the new administration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who in December said that Syria’s change of regime is “not our fight.” Trump also remarked that“Turkey is going to hold the key to Syria” – something thatSaudi Arabia may take issue with as it positions itself as a key regional player in Syria’s rebuilding.