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Starmer asks Meloni for a lesson on curbing illegal migration
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmermet with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Monday to learn how her hard-line tactics against irregular migration could help him deliver on his election promise to “smash the gangs” driving such migration to the UK. The meetings came after eight migrants died crossing the English Channel on Sunday and on the heels of disinformation-fueled anti-immigrant riots in August.
Starmer is interested in how Meloni cut irregular sea crossings to Italy by 60% over the past year, and in the so-called “Rome Process” she adopted last year when she forged deals with North African countries like Tunisia and Libya to tackle people-smuggling gangs, intercept departing boats, and return migrants. Starmer pledged £4 million to support the Rome Process. He also said he was open to following Italy’s lead on processing asylum claims offshore — a project Meloni is struggling to get off the ground in Albania but one that has generated the interest of leaders across Europe, including in Brussels.
The meeting shows how Starmer has changed his tune on immigration since campaigning against Rishi Sunak’s plan to deport illegal migrants to Rwanda. It also signals how Europe's shift to the right on immigration has positioned Meloni’s tactics – once considered fringe – in the mainstream.
No, Meloni is probably not going rogue
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has accused EU leadership of falling prey to fake news after they issued a report highlighting press freedom issues in the country. The spat comes a week after Meloni abstained from voting for Ursula von der Leyen to lead the European Commission and instructed members of her Brothers of Italy party to vote against von der Leyen’s confirmation.
The two moments of tension have many wondering: Is a storm brewing in Brussels?
Probably not, according to Eurasia Group’s Europe Managing Director Mujtaba Rahman, who believes “the narrative of a fundamental split between Meloni and von der Leyen, Rome and Brussels, is being overdone.”
“Meloni has little to gain from a split, and von der Leyen also wants to avoid confrontation,” he adds.
Over the past two years, Meloni has forged better-than-expected ties with EU leadership, especially after von der Leyen backed the Italian leader’s tough approach to migration and agreed to change some of the original spending plans for Italy’s €200 billion share of EU recovery funds ahead of her reelection.
“Meloni’s abstention was tactical,” says Rahman. “Her strategic — and far more important decision — was to not join the new far-right grouping in the European Parliament.” The group, led by Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen, was blocked from holding the top jobs in any committees, despite being the third largest group in parliament.
Hard Numbers: California burns, Countries push for cease-fire, Meloni makes nice, Japan basks in Olympic glory
350,000: The Park fire in northern California has burned through over 350,000 acres of land — an area larger than New York City — and was just 10% contained as of Sunday. Authorities said the fire was spreading at a rate of 5,000 acres per hour, and police arrested a man who they suspect of having deliberately set the blaze in an act of arson.
3: On Friday, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada jointly called for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza and for Israel to respond “substantively” to a July 19 ruling from the International Court of Justice about the illegality of Israeli settlements and military occupation in the West Bank. The statement came a day after US Vice President Kamala Harris urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a Gaza deal.
3: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Melonisigned a three-year deal with China while visiting Beijing on Saturday. She also promised to implement earlier bilateral agreements derailed by shifting geopolitics and to try new forms of cooperation. Meloni won praise from the US for officially pulling out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative last year, but with a possible Sino-European trade war looming – aggravated by China dumping its production overcapacity on world markets – she seems to be more conciliatory these days.
7: As of Sunday afternoon, Japan was leading the Olympic medal count with 7 podium finishes, including two golds in Judo. The lesson here is clear: Don’t wrestle with Japanese athletes. There will be more Judo finals on Monday, with a total of 19 gold medals to be awarded in finals across events in artistic gymnastics, swimming, shooting, diving, equestrian, mountain biking, skateboarding, archery, fencing, and canoe slalom (yep, that last one threw us too – here’s a primer).Italy aims to export migrant crisis to Albania
Can Albania accept migrants deported by Italy? A court in Tirana is deciding on the legality of an agreement with the Italian government, in which Rome can send EU asylum-seekers to the Balkan country.
The Albanian courts technically have until March 6 to make a decision, but their verdict is expected to come sooner because both sides have something important to gain. Under the deal, which has been tacitly endorsed by the EU, up to 36,000 migrants a year would wait in Albania while Italy rules on their asylum claims. In exchange, Italy has pledged to support Albania’s bid to join the EU. Italy would fund and run the migrant facilities, but the land would remain in Albania’s hands.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was elected last year in part on a pledge to tamp down illegal migration, is desperate to limit the number of migrants entering the EU through Italy, which has increased by 50% over the past year.
But human rights groups worry the deal could incentivize more EU nations to deport migrants to third countries in Europe, where they are unable to ensure the same standard of asylum rights. The UK, of course, is in the final stages of passing a similar bill in which asylum-seekers would be deported to Rwanda while their asylum claims are processed.
Top 10 game changers of 2023
Whether you win or lose, in politics it is still how you play the game that matters. This year, several global players not only played the game, but they changed it in significant and surprising ways. Join us as we revisit some of the most pivotal moments, figures, and trends of the year in geopolitics.
1. Welcome to the AI era
The intelligence may be artificial, but the political stakes are real. Geeks have quietly been developing AI for years, but it wasn’t until the release of ChatGPT late last year that everyone became fully aware of and spooked by the technology’s immense power. It promises to make our societies more efficient, while also threatening to eliminate jobs and undermine trust in institutions, elections, and media (deepfakes anyone?). Throughout 2023, the most powerful governments in the world began racing to find regulatory balances for AI that decrease risks without stifling innovation. The game has changed: 2023 was just the start.
2. The Mugshot
You would think that a twice-impeached former president facing multiple indictments would have almost no shot at the White House. But Donald Trump, the first ex-president to be criminally indicted in US history, remains an enigma in American politics. Rather than undermining his 2024 campaign, Trump’s legal woes seem to have given him major momentum. His mugshot from Georgia played a particularly big role in bolstering his campaign – helping the former president raise millions. Trump ends 2023 far ahead of the remaining GOP contenders – without even participating in presidential debates – and he’s also leading President Joe Biden in the polls.
3. Russian trenches
In 2023, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive it hoped would score major gains against Russian invaders and persuade American and European backers that their military and financial investments could help Ukraine win the war. But Russia’s ability to entrench its troops behind heavily fortified barriers frustrated Ukraine’s plans, and Russian forces still occupy 18% of Ukraine’s territory. The war grinds on, and Vladimir Putin is now more confident than ever that Russia can outlast Western support for Ukraine.
4. Modi’s moment
During the pandemic, and then as Western sanctions against Russia pushed global food and fuel prices higher, the world’s wealthy democracies and developing countries of the Global South grew further apart on important issues. No one did more to bridge that gap in 2023 than India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. By improving India’s relationship with the G7 and through his leadership of the G20 this year, Modi brokered practical compromises on issues like climate policy and debt. Even controversies over the murder of an activist in Canada and a suspected plot against another in the US didn’t much dent Modi's standing with Western powers that increasingly see him as an important ally against China.
5. American Unions – strong again?
US unions flexed in 2023. Striking autoworkers won concessions from Big Auto and even drew a US president to the picket lines for the first time. Actors and writers' guilds shut down Hollywood for months, and the Teamsters reached a deal with UPS to avoid crippling 6% of the US economy. Overall, nearly half a million workers went on strike this year, nearly eight times as many as in 2021. Non-union employment is still expanding faster, yes, but organized labor has muscled its way back into the political conversation, and popular support for unions is near highs not seen since the 1960s.
6. Hamas
Until the evening of Oct. 6, 2023, an increasingly right-wing Israel looked like it was able to contain Hamas in the Gaza Strip, deepen its illegal occupation of the West Bank with impunity, and still move towards normalizing ties with the Arab world’s most formidable powers. The plight and aspirations of the Palestinians, meanwhile, had fallen almost entirely out of the global spotlight. You already know what happened next.
7. MBS
A few years back, Jamal Khashoggi’s brutal murder was seemingly all anyone talked about when they mentioned Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS. But the oil-rich kingdom’s investments in popular sports – primarily soccer and golf – have shifted the conversation away from his acts of impunity and his country’s record of human rights abuses. The Saudi soccer league snatched up some of the world’s top players in 2023 after roping in superstar Cristiano Ronaldo, disrupting the status quo in a sport long dominated by Europe. Critics say MBS is “sportswashing” to distract from various other controversies, but he doesn’t seem to care as long as it helps the kingdom increase its GDP and become a top tourist destination.
8. Power Barbie
In the decades since 1945, when Ruth Handler first decided to make a doll that encouraged pursuits beyond motherhood, Barbie had strayed from its feminist origins. But director Greta Gerwig rediscovered them with “Barbie,” a global cinematic sensation in which Barbie pushes Ken aside and pursues her own ambitions. Speaking of ambitions, the film made Gerwig the first woman to direct a film surpassing $1 billion at the box office worldwide.
9. Giorgia Meloni
Meloni was a relative unknown on the international stage when Italian voters put her far-right Fratelli d’Italia Party in power late last year, triggering anxieties about the EU’s third-largest economy becoming something like Hungary on steroids: isolated and a thorn in Brussels’ side. Instead, Meloni’s eager embrace of the EU and Ukraine ingratiated her with EU leaders — who in turn have been more open to listening to her ideas on tightening migration policy. It’s a new, electable model for far-right leaders in a Western Europe increasingly invested in the EU but worried about immigration.
10. China owes big
China’s booming economy defined the geopolitical trajectory of the 2010s, but 2023 looks like the year the world began to wonder and worry whether the engine was finally running out of steam. Beijing’s efforts to rein in a staggering debt-to-GDP ratio of 272% have caused knock-on effects ranging from the property market, where two-thirds of Chinese household wealth is invested, to low youth employment, right down to the balance sheets of local governments. It constrained economic growth in 2023, causing global concern about the health of the world’s second-largest economy, — and even seemed to force Xi Jinping to take a more conciliatory approach in relations with the US.
How Tolkien’s hobbits got political
What do Italian conservatives and American hippies have in common? A love for The Lord of the Rings. Though JRR Tolkien insisted his books were apolitical, his fantasy epic has fueled movements across the political spectrum and around the world.
Giorgia Meloni, a huge Tolkien fan, became Italy’s first female prime minister and its most conservative since World War II last year. At her final campaign rally, Pino Insegno – the voice of Aragorn in the Italian-dubbed version of “The Lord of the Rings” – introduced her by invoking Middle Earth’s Kingdom of Men with “Sons of Rohan, my brothers, people of Rome … the day of defeat may come, but it is not this day!”
Now, Insegno’s voice can be heard throughout Italy’s new Tolkien exhibit, a €250,000 traveling exhibition funded by Italy's culture ministry and opened by Meloni herself last week in Rome. Meloni, who considers the trilogy sacred texts, said that “Tolkien could say better than us what conservatives believe in.”
Meloni’s tribute to Tolkien is no coincidence. “The Lord of the Rings” has influenced Italy's conservative movement since the fall of Mussolini.
After the Italian government flipped sides to join the Allies during World War II, fascists flocked to the Italian Social Movement, aka MSI, and they were largely excluded from post-war culture and politics. Veterans of fascism embraced Tolkien’s series, which was released in Italy in 1970 with a preface by Elémire Zolla, who argued that the books represented conservatives’ rejection from the modern world and an allegory about “pure” ethnic groups fighting against the contamination of foreign invaders.
The books provided MSI with a means of reconstructing a post-fascism hard-right identity. Rather than identifying with the warrior Aragorn, MSI glorified the hobbits, who reflected their party’s weakness. They even established “Hobbit Camps” for young activists, molding a new generation of conservatives to see themselves as an underdog fellowship fighting against the “Lidless Eye'' of the European Left.
Meloni, like many members of the Brothers of Italy Party she helms, grew up attending these camps (yes, costumes were involved). In her biography, she explains that she sees “The Lord of the Rings” as a nationalistic, anti-globalization, and hyper-conservative tale that has given her a way to explain her struggle to preserve tradition in socially acceptable terms.
Meloni rose to power on nationalistic rhetoric. She has called for a naval blockade against illegal migrants and warned her supporters about the conspiratorial forces of globalism. She has evoked the hobbits' battles against invading orcs in speeches calling for stricter immigration policy.
By playing up her passion for Tolkien, Meloni can appeal to the broader public’s love for the books while nodding to conservative hobbit camp veterans.
But Tolkien has also been a champion of the left. The hippies of the 1960s loved hobbits too.
It was a time of rapid social change in America, accelerated by 42 million Baby Boomers coming of age at a time when “The Lord of the Rings” was required reading. In 1966, Time Magazine wrote that “going to college without Tolkien is like going without sneakers.” The trilogy’s sales skyrocketed throughout the 1960s, outselling the Bible in 1967 and 1968, much to their devout Catholic author’s dismay.
The story was an escape for a generation haunted by the Vietnam War and determined to upend the established order. “Frodo Lives!” became a popular slogan for the counterculture movement, which – like Italian neo-conservatives – latched onto the political subtext of diminutive hobbits launching a revolution.
So what are the politics of Middle Earth? Tolkien expert John Pagano, a Barnard professor, thinks that the author would disagree with Meloni’s appropriation of his life's work.
“Whenever [the books] are co-opted by people to enhance their own power, it's flying in the face of Tolkien’s point. Galadriel refuses the ring, Aragorn refuses the ring, Gandalf refuses the ring, the whole idea is to eventually give up absolute power.” Having fought in the trenches and lost friends during World War I, and having sent his two sons to fight in World War II, Tolkien launched the series in 1954 with a deep distrust of unchecked power.
Pegano doesn’t think Tolkien would be keen on being associated with Meloni’s immigration agenda either. “I mean, what is it that saves Middle Earth? It was a coalition of the various races that joined together in a communal endeavor to push back against evil.”
“It's not shutting down your borders and demonizing others who don't quite fit.”
Hard Numbers: Lampedusa landings soar, Aussies rally for indigenous rights, Vatican makes Holocaust admission, Brand accused of rape
8,000: European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen traveled to the island of Lampedusa, which lies halfway between Sicily and Tunisia, after Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni called for the EU’s assistance with a wave of small boat arrivals there. Over 8,000 migrants have landed on Lampedusa since Friday. For more on how the immigration debate is dividing European governments, see our explainer here.
20,000: In Brisbane, Australia, 20,000 protestors rallied ahead of an Oct.14 referendum on Indigenous rights. They support measures that would enshrine Indigenous groups in the country’s constitution and set up an advisory body to advance their issues.
1942: A never-before seen letter has revealed that Pope Pius XII knew of the horrors of the Holocaust in 1942, far earlier than previously believed. The letter was released by the Vatican ahead of a major conference on Pius and the Holocaust next month at the Pontifical Gregorian, sponsored by Catholic and Jewish organizations.
6: Ukraine is stepping up its drone attacks. The Russian Defense Ministry says its forces stopped six Ukrainian unmanned craft that were attacking Russian targets in Crimea from different directions on Sunday. On the same day, two Ukrainian drones were shot down near Moscow.
4: Four women have accused British comedian and actor Russell Brand of sexual assaults, including rape, committed between 2006 and 2013. Brand, who has amassed millions of followers by styling himself as an anti-establishment truth teller and wellness guru, has denied all charges, saying they are "a litany of extremely egregious and aggressive attacks as well as some pretty stupid stuff."
Biden and Italy’s Meloni talk China … and Beijing is watching
US President Joe Biden and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will have plenty to discuss when they meet at the White House on Thursday, but no topic will be more important to both sides than Italy’s complex relationship with China.
In particular, Italy faces a looming deadline in which to decide its future as a member of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s enormous infrastructure investment plan. Meloni is reportedly considering an exit from BRI by the end of this year, since the program has offered less of value than Italy hoped when it joined in 2019 – and because Italy is part of the broader Western discussion on reducing risks related to ties with China.
Biden and Meloni will likely discuss China broadly – each leader is curious to sound the other out on their latest thinking on relations with Beijing – but it’s unclear whether Meloni will make a final announcement on Italy’s BRI membership.
China, meanwhile, is watching closely, and its state media has signaled that Italy’s BRI membership is none of Biden’s business and that a Meloni decision to renounce Italy’s membership could come with (unspecified) repercussions.