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Search and rescue officers search for victims amidst the rubble of a crumbled building after a hall collapsed while students were praying at the Al-Khoziny Islamic boarding school in Sidoarjo, East Java, Indonesia, on September 29, 2025.
Hard Numbers: Indonesian school collapses, Americans sour on Israel, YouTube pays Trump, Brothers rock in Italian election
3: A school in East Java, Indonesia, collapsed on Monday, killing three people and injuring many more. At least 38 others – many of them teenage boys – remain trapped. The rescue mission was halted on Tuesday over concerns that the building would collapse further. This disaster comes atop a growing list of challenges that President Prabowo Subianto now faces.
35%: A new poll shows 35% of Americans sympathize more with Palestinians than with Israel (34%). It’s the first time in the history of the New York Times/Siena poll, which dates back to 1998, that this has happened. Right after the October 7th, 2023, attacks, support for Israel was at 47%, against just 20% for Palestinians. The new results come after two years of Israel’s assault on Gaza, which some international organizations and watchdogs have said meets the criteria for war crimes, including genocide.
$24.5 million: YouTube agreed to pay $24.5 million to US President Donald Trump and others on Monday in order to settle a lawsuit over the platform’s decision to suspend them from the site in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. The vast majority of the settlement payout – $22 million – will go to Trump, who directed the money to the Trust for the National Mall and to the construction of a new White House ballroom. Trump’s lawyers had argued that the suspension was an act of censorship.
52.5%: In a big win for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, her rightwing Brothers of Italy party was re-elected to run the region of Marche, beating the opposition by nearly ten points with 52.5% of the vote. The ballot in Marche, a light manufacturing industry northeast of Rome which has historically leaned left, is seen as a bellwether for national elections due in 2027.Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa heads to the United States for negotiations from Tokyo's Haneda airport on April 16, 2025.
Two “Guinea pigs” come to Washington
As much of the world scrambles to figure out how to avoid Donald Trump’s expansive “reciprocal tariffs,” two big players are in Washington this week to try their hands at negotiating with the self-styled Deal Artist™ himself.
First, Japan. For decades, the world’s fourth-largest economy has run a big trade surplus with the US while also benefiting from American military protection. Trump has been upset about this arrangement for 40 years, and Japan’s import restrictions on US cars and agricultural goods are a particular focus for him. His 25% global tariff on car and steel imports will hit Japan hard, as will the overall 24% “reciprocal” levy against Tokyo that is slated to go into effect in July.
But Japan is also a top foreign investor in the US economy and a key East Asian ally amid Trump’s deepening confrontation with China. Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa is looking to reduce tariffs to zero. Observers have already called his case a “guinea pig” for how countries with long-standing ties to the US can work deals with the America First president.
Late on Wednesday, Trump hailed “big progress” in the talks, which he attended personally, but neither he nor Akazawa gave further details. The two sides will meet again later this month.
Second, Italy. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who visits the White House on Thursday, is a pragmatic right-winger whom the US president has described as a “fantastic woman.” She shares Trump’s hardline views on immigration and social issues, and even defended US Vice President JD Vance’s recent blistering attack on the EU’s approach to free speech.
But Meloni also leads a highly export-dependent economy that runs a $40bn surplus with the US. Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” of 20% on the EU could therefore be a 🤌catastrophe🤌 for Italy.
The EU is warily watching. Can Meloni parlay her good graces with Trump into a deal that avoids a wider transatlantic trade war? Or will her solo visit enable the US president to weaken the overall unity of the bloc?
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump meets with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, U.S. January 4, 2025.
Meloni joins Trump at Mar-a-Lago — with Europe’s economy on the line
President-elect Donald Trump was full of praise for Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni during her surprise visit to Mar-a-Lago on Saturday, calling her a “fantastic woman” who has “really taken Europe by storm.” The two caught a screening of a right-wing documentary and then had dinner. Meloni has a lot riding on making a good impression as Trump has threatened tariffs that would severely hamper Europe’s economic growth.
Neither side released details of what they discussed, but Meloni has been on a charm offensive since Trump won the US election. She also met with Trump at the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral last month in Paris and has worked hard to establish a close relationship with key Trump ally Elon Musk. She has called Musk a personal “friend” and a “genius” who’s been wrongly maligned for supporting Trump – Musk even had to deny the two were in a romantic relationship in September.
The personal is political. Meloni has set herself up as a unique bridge between Brussels and Trumpworld, putting her in the driver’s seat as the European Union prepares to negotiate to buy more oil and gas from the United States, without which Trump has threatened “TARIFFS all the way!!!”
The problem? Europe already buys a ton of US hydrocarbons, so much so that industry experts don’t think the bloc can import more. We’re watching for other European leaders to give Meloni broad deference on her preferred migration policies so long as she can continue to play Trump-whisperer.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer meeting with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Starmer asks Meloni for a lesson on curbing illegal migration
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Monday to learn how her hard-line tactics against irregular migration could help him deliver on his election promise to “smash the gangs” driving such migration to the UK. The meetings came after eight migrants died crossing the English Channel on Sunday and on the heels of disinformation-fueled anti-immigrant riots in August.
Starmer is interested in how Meloni cut irregular sea crossings to Italy by 60% over the past year, and in the so-called “Rome Process” she adopted last year when she forged deals with North African countries like Tunisia and Libya to tackle people-smuggling gangs, intercept departing boats, and return migrants. Starmer pledged £4 million to support the Rome Process. He also said he was open to following Italy’s lead on processing asylum claims offshore — a project Meloni is struggling to get off the ground in Albania but one that has generated the interest of leaders across Europe, including in Brussels.
The meeting shows how Starmer has changed his tune on immigration since campaigning against Rishi Sunak’s plan to deport illegal migrants to Rwanda. It also signals how Europe's shift to the right on immigration has positioned Meloni’s tactics – once considered fringe – in the mainstream.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni pays tribute to the 309 victims of the earthquake that struck, in L'Aquila, Italy, on 5 April 2009.
No, Meloni is probably not going rogue
Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has accused EU leadership of falling prey to fake news after they issued a report highlighting press freedom issues in the country. The spat comes a week after Meloni abstained from voting for Ursula von der Leyen to lead the European Commission and instructed members of her Brothers of Italy party to vote against von der Leyen’s confirmation.
The two moments of tension have many wondering: Is a storm brewing in Brussels?
Probably not, according to Eurasia Group’s Europe Managing Director Mujtaba Rahman, who believes “the narrative of a fundamental split between Meloni and von der Leyen, Rome and Brussels, is being overdone.”
“Meloni has little to gain from a split, and von der Leyen also wants to avoid confrontation,” he adds.
Over the past two years, Meloni has forged better-than-expected ties with EU leadership, especially after von der Leyen backed the Italian leader’s tough approach to migration and agreed to change some of the original spending plans for Italy’s €200 billion share of EU recovery funds ahead of her reelection.
“Meloni’s abstention was tactical,” says Rahman. “Her strategic — and far more important decision — was to not join the new far-right grouping in the European Parliament.” The group, led by Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen, was blocked from holding the top jobs in any committees, despite being the third largest group in parliament.
A satellite image shows smoke rising from the Park Fire in Chico, California, U.S., July 26, 2024.
Hard Numbers: California burns, Countries push for cease-fire, Meloni makes nice, Japan basks in Olympic glory
350,000: The Park fire in northern California has burned through over 350,000 acres of land — an area larger than New York City — and was just 10% contained as of Sunday. Authorities said the fire was spreading at a rate of 5,000 acres per hour, and police arrested a man who they suspect of having deliberately set the blaze in an act of arson.
3: On Friday, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada jointly called for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza and for Israel to respond “substantively” to a July 19 ruling from the International Court of Justice about the illegality of Israeli settlements and military occupation in the West Bank. The statement came a day after US Vice President Kamala Harris urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a Gaza deal.
3: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni signed a three-year deal with China while visiting Beijing on Saturday. She also promised to implement earlier bilateral agreements derailed by shifting geopolitics and to try new forms of cooperation. Meloni won praise from the US for officially pulling out of China’s Belt and Road Initiative last year, but with a possible Sino-European trade war looming – aggravated by China dumping its production overcapacity on world markets – she seems to be more conciliatory these days.
7: As of Sunday afternoon, Japan was leading the Olympic medal count with 7 podium finishes, including two golds in Judo. The lesson here is clear: Don’t wrestle with Japanese athletes. There will be more Judo finals on Monday, with a total of 19 gold medals to be awarded in finals across events in artistic gymnastics, swimming, shooting, diving, equestrian, mountain biking, skateboarding, archery, fencing, and canoe slalom (yep, that last one threw us too – here’s a primer).Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni
Italy aims to export migrant crisis to Albania
Can Albania accept migrants deported by Italy? A court in Tirana is deciding on the legality of an agreement with the Italian government, in which Rome can send EU asylum-seekers to the Balkan country.
The Albanian courts technically have until March 6 to make a decision, but their verdict is expected to come sooner because both sides have something important to gain. Under the deal, which has been tacitly endorsed by the EU, up to 36,000 migrants a year would wait in Albania while Italy rules on their asylum claims. In exchange, Italy has pledged to support Albania’s bid to join the EU. Italy would fund and run the migrant facilities, but the land would remain in Albania’s hands.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who was elected last year in part on a pledge to tamp down illegal migration, is desperate to limit the number of migrants entering the EU through Italy, which has increased by 50% over the past year.
But human rights groups worry the deal could incentivize more EU nations to deport migrants to third countries in Europe, where they are unable to ensure the same standard of asylum rights. The UK, of course, is in the final stages of passing a similar bill in which asylum-seekers would be deported to Rwanda while their asylum claims are processed.
Top 10 game changers of 2023
Whether you win or lose, in politics it is still how you play the game that matters. This year, several global players not only played the game, but they changed it in significant and surprising ways. Join us as we revisit some of the most pivotal moments, figures, and trends of the year in geopolitics.
1. Welcome to the AI era

The intelligence may be artificial, but the political stakes are real. Geeks have quietly been developing AI for years, but it wasn’t until the release of ChatGPT late last year that everyone became fully aware of and spooked by the technology’s immense power. It promises to make our societies more efficient, while also threatening to eliminate jobs and undermine trust in institutions, elections, and media (deepfakes anyone?). Throughout 2023, the most powerful governments in the world began racing to find regulatory balances for AI that decrease risks without stifling innovation. The game has changed: 2023 was just the start.
2. The Mugshot

You would think that a twice-impeached former president facing multiple indictments would have almost no shot at the White House. But Donald Trump, the first ex-president to be criminally indicted in US history, remains an enigma in American politics. Rather than undermining his 2024 campaign, Trump’s legal woes seem to have given him major momentum. His mugshot from Georgia played a particularly big role in bolstering his campaign – helping the former president raise millions. Trump ends 2023 far ahead of the remaining GOP contenders – without even participating in presidential debates – and he’s also leading President Joe Biden in the polls.
3. Russian trenches

In 2023, Ukraine launched a counteroffensive it hoped would score major gains against Russian invaders and persuade American and European backers that their military and financial investments could help Ukraine win the war. But Russia’s ability to entrench its troops behind heavily fortified barriers frustrated Ukraine’s plans, and Russian forces still occupy 18% of Ukraine’s territory. The war grinds on, and Vladimir Putin is now more confident than ever that Russia can outlast Western support for Ukraine.
4. Modi’s moment

During the pandemic, and then as Western sanctions against Russia pushed global food and fuel prices higher, the world’s wealthy democracies and developing countries of the Global South grew further apart on important issues. No one did more to bridge that gap in 2023 than India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. By improving India’s relationship with the G7 and through his leadership of the G20 this year, Modi brokered practical compromises on issues like climate policy and debt. Even controversies over the murder of an activist in Canada and a suspected plot against another in the US didn’t much dent Modi's standing with Western powers that increasingly see him as an important ally against China.
5. American Unions – strong again?

US unions flexed in 2023. Striking autoworkers won concessions from Big Auto and even drew a US president to the picket lines for the first time. Actors and writers' guilds shut down Hollywood for months, and the Teamsters reached a deal with UPS to avoid crippling 6% of the US economy. Overall, nearly half a million workers went on strike this year, nearly eight times as many as in 2021. Non-union employment is still expanding faster, yes, but organized labor has muscled its way back into the political conversation, and popular support for unions is near highs not seen since the 1960s.
6. Hamas

Until the evening of Oct. 6, 2023, an increasingly right-wing Israel looked like it was able to contain Hamas in the Gaza Strip, deepen its illegal occupation of the West Bank with impunity, and still move towards normalizing ties with the Arab world’s most formidable powers. The plight and aspirations of the Palestinians, meanwhile, had fallen almost entirely out of the global spotlight. You already know what happened next.
7. MBS

A few years back, Jamal Khashoggi’s brutal murder was seemingly all anyone talked about when they mentioned Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS. But the oil-rich kingdom’s investments in popular sports – primarily soccer and golf – have shifted the conversation away from his acts of impunity and his country’s record of human rights abuses. The Saudi soccer league snatched up some of the world’s top players in 2023 after roping in superstar Cristiano Ronaldo, disrupting the status quo in a sport long dominated by Europe. Critics say MBS is “sportswashing” to distract from various other controversies, but he doesn’t seem to care as long as it helps the kingdom increase its GDP and become a top tourist destination.
8. Power Barbie

In the decades since 1945, when Ruth Handler first decided to make a doll that encouraged pursuits beyond motherhood, Barbie had strayed from its feminist origins. But director Greta Gerwig rediscovered them with “Barbie,” a global cinematic sensation in which Barbie pushes Ken aside and pursues her own ambitions. Speaking of ambitions, the film made Gerwig the first woman to direct a film surpassing $1 billion at the box office worldwide.
9. Giorgia Meloni

Meloni was a relative unknown on the international stage when Italian voters put her far-right Fratelli d’Italia Party in power late last year, triggering anxieties about the EU’s third-largest economy becoming something like Hungary on steroids: isolated and a thorn in Brussels’ side. Instead, Meloni’s eager embrace of the EU and Ukraine ingratiated her with EU leaders — who in turn have been more open to listening to her ideas on tightening migration policy. It’s a new, electable model for far-right leaders in a Western Europe increasingly invested in the EU but worried about immigration.
10. China owes big

China’s booming economy defined the geopolitical trajectory of the 2010s, but 2023 looks like the year the world began to wonder and worry whether the engine was finally running out of steam. Beijing’s efforts to rein in a staggering debt-to-GDP ratio of 272% have caused knock-on effects ranging from the property market, where two-thirds of Chinese household wealth is invested, to low youth employment, right down to the balance sheets of local governments. It constrained economic growth in 2023, causing global concern about the health of the world’s second-largest economy, — and even seemed to force Xi Jinping to take a more conciliatory approach in relations with the US.