Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
US President Donald Trump speaks during an executive order signing in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on Feb. 10, 2025. He ordered a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, escalating his efforts to protect politically important US industries with levies hitting some of the country's closest allies.
A Trump economy caution light begins to flash
US inflation rose to 3% in January, surpassing the expectations of many economists. This increase is driven at least in part by a sharp jump in egg prices, the result of an avian flu outbreak. But there may be other pressures at play that can create serious political challenges for President Donald Trump and two of his policy priorities.
Eurasia Group, our parent company, warned in its Top Risks report for 2025 that Trump’s use of tariffs would put upward pressure on the prices Americans pay for goods and services. When US consumers face fewer affordable options on many goods, the report warned, inflation will rise again, leaving interest rates higher and slowing growth.
But Trump’s immigration policy, which could deport up to 1 million people in 2025 and as many as five million over his four-year term, could be even more inflationary. Mass deportations, the report warns, “will shrink the US workforce, drive up wages and consumer prices, and reduce the productive capacity of the economy.”
If this forecast is correct, investors will put downward pressure on stock market performance in the coming months in anticipation that higher inflation will encourage the US Federal Reserve Bank to leave interest rates higher for longer — and perhaps even to raise rates late in 2025.
History shows that when inflation rises, stock prices fall, and interest rates are high, US presidents see a drop in their approval ratings. If the inflationary pressures reflected in January’s inflation numbers have staying power, and tariffs and deportations really do make inflation much worse and send Trump’s approval numbers south, will the president alter policy course on two of his signature campaign promises? That’s a question that will be watched closely by governments around the world.
Leaders at Davos are turning "anxiety into action"
The shifting geopolitical landscape and uncertainty surrounding the future of AI have stirred anxiety among those gathered in Davos. Yet, there are glimmers of hope. “The most important thing for me is really to turn the anxiety into action," said Teresa Hutson, Corporate Vice President of Microsoft. She emphasizes the need for organizations, businesses, and individuals to tackle global challenges with proactive, “action-oriented optimism.” Only then does she believe we can start to solve problems that have so far felt unsolvable.
Others, like Annemarie Hou, Executive Director of the UN Office for Partnerships, share this hope. She sees promise in the business sector’s commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals at Davos as a testament. She remarks, "It's up to all of us right now, in the moment, to continue to push as far as we can and get the world as far as we can by 2030."
This conversation is presented by GZERO, in partnership with Microsoft, from the 2025 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The Global Stage series convenes global leaders for critical conversations on the geopolitical and technological trends shaping our world.
Follow GZERO coverage of Davos here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage
Will Trumponomics cause a slowdown for the US economy?
Donald Trump’s economic agenda blends deregulation, anti-immigration policies, higher tariffs, and loose fiscal policy—an approach that "cuts in multiple different directions," says Jon Lieber during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report. Lieber says deregulation could boost productivity, while measures like deportations and trade barriers risk straining industries reliant on foreign labor and open markets. With markets pricing in optimism but key sectors facing uncertainty, the impact of Trumponomics will hinge on how far the administration goes in implementing its campaign promises in 2025 and beyond.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 6 here.
Ian Bremmer: Trump is a symptom of a dysfunctional "G-Zero world"
In a political environment plagued by instability and polarization, who is poised to benefit? 2025 has kicked the G-Zero world into high gear: a world characterized by a growing vacuum in global governance. The anti-establishment wave and anti-incumbency trend that swept major democracies this past year underscore the dramatic shift. President-elect Donald Trump is the leading symptom, in many ways, the most powerful beneficiary of the G-Zero, argues Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report. He says that America’s embrace of a more “transactional worldview,” indifference to rule of law, and focus on rule of jungle will play to Trump’s hand and agenda. Bremmer adds that a G-Zero world and “a consolidated America First are the same thing, but jut from different perspectives. G-Zero is what happens with everybody else, and America First is what happens with the Americans.” With a tipsy-turvy year ahead, the world will be watching how Trump will navigate this moment in time.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 6 here.
- Three reasons for optimism in a leaderless world ›
- The rise of a leaderless world: Why 2025 marks a turning point, with Francis Fukuyama ›
- How Trump 2.0 could reshape US foreign policy, with the New York Times' David Sanger ›
- How will Trump 2.0 approach foreign policy? ›
- Quick Take: Trump's foreign policy legacy - the wins ›
- Trump's Davos address sets up big shifts in US strategy - GZERO Media ›
Get ready for Trump's team of China hawks, warns The New Yorker's Susan Glasser
China is in for an unprecedentedly tough time. Donald Trump’s cabinet of China hawks signals a potentially more confrontational stance with Beijing, a foreign policy approach that will function not unlike the first Trump administration's over Russia, says The New Yorker's Susan Glasser during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report. Glasser argues that it will be a kind of push-pull relationship between more establishment, old-fashioned conservative types and “Trump’s own impulses and instincts." She adds that “he’s going to want to keep American business tycoons happy. He’s got Elon Musk whispering in his ear at all times.” So, to what extent will the China hawks be able to impose their agenda in a Trump 2.0 administration?
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 6 here.
Francis Fukuyama on the new leaderless global order
In a wide-ranging conversation on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, Francis Fukuyama warns that the United States is losing its ability to lead globally as political polarization and a lack of bipartisan consensus undermine its long-term influence. He argues that America’s retreat from the liberal world order it once championed creates a dangerous power vacuum, inviting instability and the resurgence of the law of the jungle in international relations.
GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airs nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube. Don't miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Top Risks 2025: America's role in the crumbling global order
Is international order on the precipice of collapse? 2025 is poised to be a turbulent year for the geopolitical landscape. From Canada and South Korea to Japan and Germany, the world faces a “deepening and rare absence of global leadership with more chaos than any time since the 1930s,” says Eurasia Group chairman Cliff Kupchan during a GZERO livestream to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report. Kupchan highlights that the US is at the heart of it. He warns that it is a country that has “abdicated its throne,” which has created a dynamic that is “very prone to vacuums and misperceptions.” With no other country willing or able to take the reins and lead, the world is left in a vulnerable position facing unprecedented geopolitical risks.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 6 here.
- Podcast: The Top Geopolitical Risks of 2025, a live conversation with Ian Bremmer and global experts ›
- How Trump won – and what it means for the world ›
- A look back at the Top Risks of 2024 ›
- Exclusive: Ian Bremmer’s Top Risks for 2025 ›
- Ian Bremmer on the forces behind the geopolitical recession - GZERO Media ›
- The rise of a leaderless world: Why 2025 marks a turning point, with Francis Fukuyama - GZERO Media ›
- The rise of global impunity in a G-Zero world - GZERO Media ›
Unpacking the biggest global threats of 2025
With political instability plaguing US allies, from Canada and South Korea to Japan and Germany, 2025 promises plenty of geopolitical storms. To get you up to speed, GZERO Publisher Evan Solomon sat down with Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer, Cliff Kupchan, and Jon Lieber, as well as the New Yorker’s Susan Glasser, to discuss the 2025 Top Risks report.
One name came up over and over again: Donald Trump. The incoming US president promises tariffs that could upend the global economy, crash relations with China, and worsen the chaos in ungoverned spaces. With Russia still running rogue, Iran badly bruised on the world stage, and AI changing geopolitics — not necessarily for the better — Kupchan characterized the current situation as the riskiest since World War II.
Bremmer said that all of the above, from Washington to Ouagadougou, is merely a symptom of the biggest risk facing the planet: that the G-Zero world, one in which no power can bring order to the international system, is on the rise.
Take a deep dive with the panel in our full discussion, livestreamed on Jan. 6.