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Navigating global trade during uncertain times
In a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, businesses are focusing on adapting to global trade uncertainties. Dr. Nikolaus Lang, global leader of the BCG Henderson Institute, shared his insights with GZERO’s Tony Maciulis during the World Economic Forum in Davos. Dr. Lang discussed the Trump administration’s cautious approach to tariffs, emphasizing the likelihood of increases in the near future. "Our point of view is that there will be tariff hikes in one way or the others. Whether this will be the magnitude that was kind of mentioned in the campaign remains open."
While the delay may provide corporations some time to prepare, he stressed the urgency for businesses to strengthen their "geopolitical muscle" by diversifying supply chains, planning for inflationary volatility, and integrating geopolitical awareness into decision-making. Despite the complexities, Dr. Lang remains optimistic about global trade growth, forecasting a 3% annual increase over the next decade. Emerging markets, particularly Southeast Asia and India, are poised to benefit significantly, offering substantial expansion opportunities. His insights underscore the need for businesses to remain agile and proactive, finding opportunities even amid disruption.
Follow GZERO coverage of Davos here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage
Argentina's Milei shares strong views on China and Israel
In an exclusive interview with Ian Bremmer for the latest episode of GZERO World, Milei defines his approach to foreign policy as one of democracies vs autocracies. And he makes clear that Argentina will always side with democracies. But how does he square that vow with the reality that Chinese trade is a critical part of Argentina's (not to mention Latin America's) economy? He answers by pointing to his staunch libertarian beliefs, and his desire to stay out of the free market's way. "If I were to limit that trade, which is free, would Argentines be better off or worse off?"
Milei also makes clear that his staunch support for Israel is a defining aspect of his foreign policy approach. When Bremmer asks him about the Gaza war, his answer is simple and unwavering. "I will continue to support Israel right to the end."
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airing nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube and on our website. Don’t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
Can Milei save Argentina's economy using "shock therapy"?
In an exclusive interview with Ian Bremmer for the latest episode of GZERO World, President Javier Milei acknowledges the severe economic crisis gripping Argentina. "Life is going to be harder for the average Argentinian citizen," he admits, underlining the difficult path ahead. Milei argues that his approach centers on transparency, a stark contrast to previous administrations. "Our approach was to always tell people the truth and to actually tell it like it is, saying that it wasn't going to be easy," he explains, emphasizing the need for honesty in these trying times.
As Milei puts it to Bremmer, his administration inherited a dire economic situation, with a staggering 17% double deficit in GDP and annual inflation soaring to an unimaginable 17,000%. "The solution inevitably had to be 'shock therapy,'" Milei states. He points out that incremental approaches have historically failed in Argentina, making shock therapy the only viable option. Despite the harshness of these measures, Milei believes they are crucial for long-term stability and growth.
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airing nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube and on our website. Don’t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Chainsaw cuts path to new Argentina-IMF deal ›
- Argentina's President Javier Milei wants his nation "on the side of liberal democracies" ›
- Milei makes fiery Davos debut ›
- The masses test Milei with major protest ›
- How Javier Milei is turning Argentina's economy around ›
- Is Milei moderating? Argentina’s president-elect takes power ›
- Who the heck is Javier Milei? ›
- Javier Milei's plan to save Argentina: Full interview - GZERO Media ›
Argentina's President Javier Milei wants his nation "on the side of liberal democracies"
In the latest episode of GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with the new firebrand president of Argentina, Javier Milei. Milei may be best known outside of Argentina for his flair for the dramatic, whether it be cloning his dogs, calling the pope an SOB, or dressing up as a superhero to sing about fiscal policy.
But when it comes to trade and geopolitics, don’t let the fanfare fool you. Milei is clear-eyed. He plans to reverse “100 years of decadence” — which he blames on Argentina’s various leftist governments of the past — by forging an open and free trade policy.
“Trade is a prosperity machine, and we should seek every possible way to open up more markets and to open up more vis-a-vis the rest of the world,” he says.
But what might be even more striking for the flamboyant leader is his sober geopolitical outlook and his determination to keep Argentina on the side of Western democracies.
“The key point here is not just about the benefits to be gained from free trade,” Milei tells Bremmer, “but it's also a significant geopolitical matter about making sure we are on the right side of history, which is the side of liberal democracies, and not on the side of autocrats.”
Milei also cautions other nations to learn from Argentina’s missteps. “I recommend to everyone NOT to follow in Argentina's footsteps,” Milei asserts, highlighting Argentina’s drastic fall from wealth due to socialist policies. His message is clear: Argentina’s experience is a cautionary tale, underscoring the perils of forsaking economic freedom and democratic principles.
Watch the full interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, the award-winning weekly global affairs series, airing nationwide on US public television stations (check local listings).
New digital episodes of GZERO World are released every Monday on YouTube and on our website. Don’t miss an episode: subscribe to GZERO's YouTube channel and turn on notifications (🔔).
- Milei makes fiery Davos debut ›
- The masses test Milei with major protest ›
- How Javier Milei is turning Argentina's economy around ›
- Is Milei moderating? Argentina’s president-elect takes power ›
- Who the heck is Javier Milei? ›
- Ian Explains: What's so radical about Argentina's new president (besides his cloned dogs)? - GZERO Media ›
- Argentina's radical new president, Javier Milei (Exclusive interview) - GZERO Media ›
- Javier Milei's plan to save Argentina: Full interview - GZERO Media ›
Is the global economy finally on the right track?
How’s the global economy doing… really? When it comes to the world’s post-COVID recovery, it’s a tale of two economies: the United States and everyone else. On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer sits down with economist and author Dambisa Moyo for a hard look at the health of the world’s finances and the impact of geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East on trade flows and inflation.
Right now, US indicators are strong, but Germany and the UK are slipping into mild recessions, and China’s collapsing real estate sector, local government debt, and exodus of foreign investment is dragging the world’s second-largest economy into stagnation. Not to mention, Global South countries are holding record amounts of debt. So what does it all mean moving forward? Is the global economy still shaking off its post-Covid hangover or are some of these problems more entrenched?
“We need to be growing at 3% per year in order to double per capita incomes in a generation which is 25 years,” Moyo says, “Most of the global south is growing below that number, materially.”
Ian Bremmer and Dambisa Moyo unpack the confusing state of the global economy, China’s economic woes, and where they see the biggest potential for growth in developing economies during the next decade.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- China’s economy in trouble ›
- Ian Explains: Why China’s era of high growth is over ›
- Struggling for economic progress as global recession looms in 2023 ›
- Dambisa Moyo: Europe's energy transition needs more than a "band-aid solution" ›
- The unintended effect of US-China economic breakup ›
- What saved the global economy from another Great Depression? ›
- Global economy headed to a recession ›
- What geopolitics stories could still blow up the global economy? ›
- Are markets becoming immune to disruptive geopolitics? - GZERO Media ›
- Global economy at risk if Middle East conflict expands, says World Bank's Ayhan Kose - GZERO Media ›
- The gap between Americans' perception of the economy and reality - GZERO Media ›
Ian Explains: Is the US economy good or bad?
What’s going on with the US economy? On Ian Explains, Ian Bremmer breaks down the confusing state of America’s financial health.
Trying to make sense of economic indicators right now can be an exercise in illogic: unemployment is down, but inflation is still stubbornly sticky. Interest rates are higher than they’ve been in two decades, but stock indexes are closing at record highs. Adding to confusion, the upcoming US presidential election means that the economy is front and center, but Democrats and Republicans have a partisan interest in making things seem worse or better than they actually are. So what’s really going on?
When you look at the world’s post-Covid recovery, America is an outlier. US GDP grew faster than any other advanced economy last year. Wages are rising faster than they have in years, inflation, while sticky, is nowhere near its 2022 highs, and unemployment has been under 4% for the longest stretch since the 1960s. So why do only 28% of US voters have a positive view of the economy right now? Some economists are calling this moment “vibe-cession,” warning the negative “vibes” could have a major impact on the presidential election in November.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Explaining inflation & what's next for the US economy ›
- The ugly truth about the US economy ›
- The Graphic Truth: Is the US economy in a recession? ›
- Biden: We must ‘finish the job’ of repairing US economy ›
- The gap between Americans' perception of the economy and reality - GZERO Media ›
- Can Trump's tariff plan boost the US economy? - GZERO Media ›
Graphic Truth: How does Red Sea chaos affect your wallet?
Attacks on commercial shipping by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have thrown yet another wrench into global trade, which has already struggled in recent years due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
The Red Sea is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, accounting for 30% of global container traffic. Due to the recent chaos, over a dozen shipping companies have rerouted their vessels around the tip of Africa – driving up costs and delays. This could also mean rising consumer prices at a time when inflation is already painfully high.
The US and its allies have made efforts to thwart Houthi attacks on shipping, but the Yemen-based militants have remained defiant. As recently as Tuesday, the Houthis fired multiple missiles at two ships in the Red Sea.
These are the commodities impacted by unrest in the Red Sea region.
Crisis at the WTO: Fixing a broken dispute system
The appeals body of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is like the Supreme Court for global trade. But it’s fundamentally broken: it hasn’t been able to hear any cases or issue decisions since 2019.
The US has blocked new appointments of WTO appeals judges under the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, complaining that the organization’s rules have hurt US jobs and industry while it lets China protect its massive domestic market from foreign competition. Until WTO reform happens, the US says, it will block any new judges from sitting on the appeals bench.
Without a minimum of three appeals judges, the WTO can’t resolve disputes. And that’s a major problem for the world’s only international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations. But there may be hope in sight.
On GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said she is hopeful the dispute settlement impasse will be resolved by the WTO's 13th Ministerial Conference (MC13) in February 2024.
“[The United States] are not the only ones who have problems with the system. Developing countries also find it difficult to access,” Okonjo-Iweala says, “So let’s take all these complaints, reform system, and make it useful for everyone.”