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Ukrainian farmer visits his crop storage that was destroyed by Russian military strike near a frontline outside Orikhiv.
No grain from Ukraine
Poland, Slovakia and Hungary have once again announced their own unilateral restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports, after the European Commission chose not to extend a broader import ban to five countries that border Ukraine. The ban had been imposed in May due to “distortions in supply” and complaints that Ukraine was not exercising effective export controls.
The three countries claim that a glut of Ukrainian imports continues to depress local prices and has pushed some farmers to the brink of bankruptcy. With tightly contested national elections upcoming in both Poland and Slovakia in a few weeks, neither government wants to antagonize its powerful farmers’ lobbies.
In Poland, the new ban not only covers four grains but also meals made from corn, wheat and canola. Hungary imposed a ban on imports of twenty-four Ukrainian agricultural products, including grains, vegetables, several meat products and honey.
The ban only affects imports to the Polish, Slovak and Hungarian markets. The three countries will still permit Ukrainian grain to transit their territory en route to third countries. Those so-called “Solidarity Lanes” moved some 60% of Ukraine’s grain exports over the past year, including 4 million tonnes of grain. The remaining 40% transited through the Black Sea, but that channel disappeared when Russia withdrew from the UN-brokered Black Sea Grain Deal in July. Subsequent attempts to revive it have so far proved unsuccessful.
In response to the new ban, the European Commission issued a statement asking all nations to “work in the spirit of compromise and engage constructively.”Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi, Russia, on Sept. 4, 2023.
No pain, no grain
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s weekend meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has failed to revive the Black Sea grain deal. The UN-brokered agreement, which guaranteed safe passage for Ukrainian grain shipments to markets in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, had been on hold since July. Russia refused to extend the deal, citing a failure to honor a parallel agreement to remove obstacles to its food and fertilizer exports.
On Monday, Putin reiterated this demand. "We will be ready to consider the possibility of reviving the grain deal … we will do this as soon as all the agreements on lifting restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products are fully implemented.” Moscow is also demanding that the Russian Agricultural Bank be reconnected to the SWIFT international payments system, from which it was cut off as part of EU sanctions for its invasion. The UN had offered to reinstate this relationship in July to keep the grain deal alive.
Erdogan offered his own prescription for reviving the deal: “Ukraine needs to especially soften its approaches in order for it to be possible for joint steps to be taken with Russia" and export more grain to Africa rather than Europe. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba “took note” of Erdogan’s position, but added, "We should not continue to be hostages to Russian blackmail, where Russia creates problems and then invites everyone to solve them.”
To deflect criticism that Russia is starving developing nations of much-needed food, Russia is set to supply up to one million tons of grain to Turkey at reduced prices for processing at Turkish plants and shipping to countries “most in need.” Putin is also brokering a deal to send free grain to six African countries: Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea, and Central African Republic.
But Russia’s moves aren’t all bread and roses: They will also conveniently purchase political capital for Russia’s war in Ukraine and expand its influence over the African continent, an arena where Russia has been increasingly active in recent years.
Where is China's foreign minister?
What are the consequences from Russia's exit from the Black Sea grain deal? Where is Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang? "Oppenheimer" is out. Will you be watching? Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
What are the consequences from Russia's exit from the Black Sea grain deal?
Well, a lot of antagonism from the Global South because prices are now going up. That's why the Russians hadn't wanted to leave. Look, I mean, there is an ammonia pipeline that was sabotaged that the Russians wanted to use traversing Ukraine, that hasn't gotten fixed. They also wanna be able to get back into SWIFT for the agricultural banks, and neither of those things happen. So they have pulled out of the deal. They are also now attacking Odessa, stepped up way, including grain capacity and blowing up a whole bunch of food. And this is, these are all war crimes. And now you've got a whole bunch of sub-Saharan countries in particular that are gonna be angry with Russia as a consequence, one of the places they've done comparatively well since the beginning of the war.
Where is Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang?
I have no idea, and especially because, I mean, I know him pretty well. When he was ambassador to Washington, I used to see him all the time and he is very close to the Chinese president. So the fact that it's been about four weeks now and he has not been heard from, initially, the Chinese government said it was a medical issue. They stopped saying that after the first couple of times. And the only thing we've heard is some scandals about, you know, maybe a relationship with some journalist. I have no idea, but clearly given who he is and his backing, it's going to be a fairly big deal. And some long knives from opponents have to be seriously out for him to be away as long as he has. Hopefully we'll hear about that soon because you need an effective foreign minister.
"Oppenheimer" is out. Will you be watching?
Well, I'm not watching "Barbie." I wasn't sure if I was going to, but then I saw my buddy Fred Kaplan, who wrote "Wizards of Armageddon" and is like probably one of the preeminent historians on the atomic bomb, he saw an early version of the film, all three hours of it, and said it was not only historically accurate, but also fantastic. And that makes me want to go see it, because let's face it, I mean, this is the guy, the father of the Manhattan Project, made the atomic bomb happen. He is a very, very controversial figure, and it's an issue we need to be talking a lot more about because we are facing much greater dangers from nuclear proliferation and from nuclear war today than at any point since 1962. So I'm glad it's coming out and hopefully it raises some awareness.
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Odessa grain terminal on fire from Russian airstrike
Grain warfare: Russia escalates the conflict
In the wake of Russia withdrawing from the Black Sea grain deal on Monday, the Kremlin announced on Wednesday that it will consider all ships traveling to Ukrainian ports as hostile vessels, escalating tensions at sea and further impeding Ukraine’s ability to export grain.
Russian forces will deem all Ukrainian-bound ships as potential carriers of military cargo, making commercial vessels potential targets. Moscow also suspended conventional safety guarantees to sailors in the areas where Ukraine’s main Black Sea ports are located. The threat will deter many commercial ships from exporting anything from Ukraine’s ports, even grain that many countries – especially in the Global South – depend upon.
Hours after pulling out of the deal, Russia began a bombing campaign targeting Odessa’s grain terminals that continued into Wednesday. The strikes destroyed 60,000 tons of grain, injured civilians, and sent a message to the world: Putin is not afraid to weaponize the world's food supply.
Ukrainian grain is a major stabilizer of global prices. Wheat prices had already risen 5% this week, thanks to Russia’s decision to pull out of the deal. They are expected to climb higher as the Black Sea becomes too dangerous for commercial shippers. Under the grain deal, 63% of Ukraine's grain exports were being shipped via Black Sea ports. Without those ports, exporters will have to use land routes, raising transportation costs by 38%.
A Turkish cargo shop loaded with Ukrainian agricultural products leaves the Port of Odessa.
The limits of Russia’s grain weapon
Russia’s suspension of the UN-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative creates uncertainty for Ukraine’s economy and for global food prices, though there are several reasons why the effect of this break will likely be more limited than worst-case scenarios suggest.
On Monday, the Kremlin said the deal was suspended, not canceled, which would allow Russia to return to the agreement – as it did last November after a previous halt. In the coming weeks, Russia will continue to haggle with the UN and Turkey, brokers of the original deal. In addition, Moscow’s concern for its image in developing countries leaves it no more likely to attack ships carrying grain to foreign ports than during last fall’s pause in the agreement.
Most importantly, Ukraine and Europe have made changes in recent months to prepare for another grain deal breakdown. Large volumes of Ukraine’s wheat and other products can now be rerouted for export overland into the EU without tariffs and then shipped on to other regions. Finally, the export of wheat and other grains will continue from Russia, easing pressures on global food prices.
All that said, this deal has still been a big deal. First struck last July, the Black Sea Grain Initiative has enabled more than 1,000 ships to transport 32.8 million tons of grain and other food products from Ukrainian ports to 45 countries in Europe, Asia, and Africa, according to the UN. Halting it, even temporarily, will raise hunger risks in poorer countries and add financial pressure on Ukraine, which now faces higher shipping and insurance costs, as well as risks of harassment from Russian ships in the Black Sea.