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What if Japan & South Korea sided with China on US tariffs?
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
If China, Japan, and South Korea formed a united front, what kind of leverage would they have in negotiating against US tariffs?
Oh, if that were to happen, they'd have incredible leverage because China's the second-largest economy in the world, Japan's the third. This would be a really, really big deal. Except for the fact that it's not going to happen. Their trade ministers did just meet, and they've had some interesting coordinated statements. They do a lot of trade together, and they want to continue that. But the fact that the security of South Korea and Japan is overwhelmingly oriented towards the US, and they would not want to undermine that, means that they will certainly not see China as a confederate to coordinate with against the United States, not least on trade. The American response would be belligerent. So no, that's not going to happen.
Will Syria's newly formed transitional government be enough for Arab and Western leaders to lift sanctions and restore diplomatic ties?
I think they are heading in that trajectory. The question is, will it be enough to keep Syria stable and away from descending into civil war? And there, there's a huge question because this is a completely untested government, completely inexperienced, no governance background, very little background in terms of military stability, especially with all of the new members, militias that have been integrated from across a very diverse country. And a lot of internal opponents that are sitting back and waiting to fight. So I'm more worried about that than I am about international support. I think largely the international support they need is going to be there.
Why does Trump want to take Greenland?
I have no idea. Maybe somebody showed him a globe from the top and he saw how big it was, and he's like, "Oh, that'd be kind of cool to have." It's not like there's anything he needs that he can't get directly from negotiating with Denmark. Plenty of willingness to allow the US to have expanded bases, troops on the ground. Plenty of willingness from other countries in the region to do more in terms of patrolling, build more icebreakers to deal with. The Finnish President, Alex Stubb, who just went to see him golfing with him, spent seven hours over the weekend moving in that direction. But you saw from Vice President Vance, he's like, "Well, the President wants it. So of course I got to respond to that." Yeah, but they don't have any reason. And I do think that it is sufficiently blowing up in their faces on the ground in Denmark and in Greenland, that the Danes understand not to make a big deal out of this and it will eventually blow over. It is annoying to them symbolically, but it doesn't matter all that much. In that regard, we can spend a little bit less time on it. Okay, that's it for me. I'll talk to you all real soon.
Protesters take part in a demonstration march ending in front of the US consulate, under the slogan, “Greenland belongs to the Greenlandic people,” in Nuuk, Greenland, on March 15, 2025.
Vances pare back Greenland trip amid threat of protests
US Second Lady Usha Vance canceled plans to attend Greenland’s biggest dog-sledding race and visit historical sites after officials in Nuuk and Copenhagen balked at an uninvited trip from an official delegation as President Donald Trump pressures Denmark to cede its autonomous Arctic territory to Washington.
Instead, Vice President JD Vance is set to join his wife on Friday at a remote US military base on the Arctic island to “check out what’s going on with the security there of Greenland.”
Denmark’s Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussensaid the US cars shipped as part of an enhanced security detail were being sent home. Danish police ordered extra personnel to Greenland ahead of expected protests against the American delegation.
“It’s very positive that the Americans have canceled their visit among Greenlandic society,” Rasmussen said. “They will only visit their own base … we have nothing against that.”
Still, Rasmus Jarlov, the Danish lawmaker from the conservative opposition party who chairs the parliament’s defense committee, called for the “immediate” shuttering of Washington’s diplomatic mission in the Greenlandic capital. “The American consulate in Nuuk must be closed as soon as possible,” hesaid on X. “No other country would accept people who have openly declared that they are there to annex part of the country.”
An opening for the Danish right? Denmark is set to hold nationwide local elections in November, and a general election in October 2026, where conservatives hope to oust the ruling center-left Social Democrats by pitching themselves to voters as tougher defenders against US aggression.
Greenland’s center-right election victors, meanwhile, are negotiating a ruling coalition for the next government. The only party so far booted from the talks? The populist Naleraq party – considered the most pro-American. The Vances’ visit is unlikely to upend the discussions, particularly as the likelihood of major protests recedes.
Sled dogs rest near Qeqertarsuaq, on Disko Island, Greenland's largest island, last summer.
Greenlanders see red over White House visits
“We are now at a level where it can in no way be characterized as a harmless visit from a politician's wife,” Egede said to Greenland’s Sermitsiaq newspaper. “What is the national security adviser doing in Greenland? The only purpose is to demonstrate power over us.”
The visits also are being characterized as election interference. Greenland is holding local elections on April 1, prompting Greenlandic member of the Danish Parliament Aaja Chemnitz to post on Facebook, “It is clear that the Trump camp does not respect our right to self-determination without outside interference.”
The trips come after US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to annex Greenland, and remarks by Vice President JD Vance Sunday on Fox News that “Denmark is not doing a good job, and not being a good ally” with regards to defending Greenland. “If that means taking a greater territorial interest in Greenland, then that is what President Trump is going to do.”
A poll taken in late January shows that 85% of Greenlanders do not favor becoming part of the United States. We’ll be watching what kind of reception the two delegations get – and how the Trump administration responds.A man walks as a Danish flag flutters next to Hans Egede Statue ahead of a March 11 general election in Nuuk, Greenland, March 9, 2025.
Snubbing Trump, Greenland votes to stick closer to Denmark – for now
Greenland’s center-right parties trounced the ruling left-wing coalition in Tuesday’s election. In a blow to US President Donald Trump’s plans to annex the Arctic territory, a once-marginal party that favors a slow separation from Denmark is set to lead the next government.
The pro-business Demokraatit party – whose platform calls for maximizing “personal freedom” and ensuring that the public sectors “never stand in the way of” private enterprise – gained seven seats in Greenland’s Inatsisartut, seizing roughly one-third of the 31-seat parliament.
Recent polling shows that 85% of Greenlanders oppose joining the US and only 56% back independence. At the polls, this translated to a tripling of support for a party focused on improving the current self-governing arrangement before cutting off the territory’s access to Danish funding.
The centrist Naleraq doubled its share of the single-chamber legislature to eight seats, vaulting the party into second place.
The ruling left-wing Inuit Ataqatigiit and its center-left coalition party, the Siumut party, fell to third and fourth place, respectively, despite seemingly popular calls to hold an independence referendum after the March 11 election.
Where the top two victors differ: Virtually every party in Greenland supports independence – at some point. The Demokraatit party, which is set to lead a governing coalition, favors gradual separation from Denmark, on whose cash handouts the world’s largest island is dependent for most of its budget.
The party’s leader, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, rebuked US President Donald Trump’s efforts to annex Greenland as “a threat to our political independence.”
But Naleraq, the No. 2 party, supports a fast path to independence and advocates stronger ties with the US.
What’s next: The pathway to independence depends on which party Demokraatit invites to form a governing coalition. A University of Greenland expert told Bloomberg the most likely coalition partners would be the leftist IA or possibly the pro-Denmark Atassut party, which came in fifth.
The statue of the missionary Hans Egede towers over the city center of Nuuk, the capital of Greenland.
Fire and ice: Denmark and Greenland respond to Trump
Donald Trump’s pledge to take over Greenland “one way or another” in his speech to Congress Tuesday night, prompted starkly different responses from the island itself and from Denmark, which currently controls it.
“Greenland is ours,” Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egedewrote in a combative Facebook post on Wednesday. “Americans and their leader must understand that. We do not want to be Americans, nor Danes… Our future is determined by us in Greenland.”
But Danish officials focused on the bright side. It was a “positive development,” said Danish Defense Minister Lund Poulsen, that Trump’s speech acknowledged Greenlanders’ right to self-determination.
“We strongly support your right to determine your own future,” Trump said, “and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America.”
What Greenlanders want: Recent polls show a majority favor independence, while 85% oppose joining America. But opinion is split on whether Trump’s interest is a “threat” or an “opportunity” for the sprawling, resource-rich Arctic island.
All of this hangs over Greenland’s upcoming election, set for March 11. All parties support independence but differ on how to achieve it. The new government will likely call a referendum on this issue, amid growing pressure from Washington.
In advance of the election, Greenland’s lawmakers have tightened restrictions on campaign contributions and property purchases by foreigners.
Read more: Why does Trump want Greenland anyway? Here are three reasons.Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen attends a brief press conference with the German Chancellor in Berlin, Germany, January 28, 2025.
A Greenland temperature check (still cold, but the tea is hot)
Meanwhile, a Greenland independence movement is gaining momentum. Prime Minister Múte Egede recentlytold reporters, “We don’t want to be Danes. We don’t want to be Americans. We want to be Greenlanders.”
But can Greenland go it alone? Denmarkpays roughly $800 million a year to Greenland – making up half of Greenland’s government revenue. While only 57,000 people live on the island, the population maintains a high standard of living like their Nordic neighbors. An independent Greenland would still need economic and security support thanks to existing and rapidly developing external pressures.
If the United States made an aggressive move for the island, Trump would face more than just retaliation from the Danes and Europeans: Other major players, namely China and Russia, could respond aggressively to protect critical shipping routes.
On Wednesday, Danish MEP Morten Løkkegaardsuggested Greenland rejoin the European Union for “protection” from Trump’s threats. He said, “The situation has changed dramatically” since 1985, when the country officially left the European Communities byreferendum vote. Rejoining the EU would mean more support for economic development and security, as well as geopolitical influence.
Trump’s saber-rattling provides a new opportunity for Greenlanders to rethink their stance on European integration … and, perhaps, a way for Europe to strengthen its influence in the Arctic.
French President Emmanuel Macron receives Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Jan. 28, 2025.
France weighs EU troop deployment to Greenland
Geopolitics are heating up in the Arctic. Inan interview Tuesday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Paris had started talking with Copenhagen about sending troops to Greenland, and that the Danes are “open to considering it if our security interests are at stake.” When asked whether the US would invade Greenland, Barrot said, “That won’t happen … No one has any interest in entering into conflict with the European Union.” However, he added that “if Denmark requests the solidarity of the European Union member states, France will be ready to respond.”
Barrot isn’t the only European politician speculating on the need for military defense of Greenland. On Monday, the EU’s Military Committee head, Austrian Gen. Robert Brieger,floated the possibility of deploying EU troops to the island. And during a recent visit to Berlin by Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, German Chancellor Olaf Scholzstressed that “Borders must not be moved by force – to whom it may concern” – a not-so-subtle jab at US President Donald Trump, who has spoken about taking Greenland.
How might a deployment of French troops be received in Washington? Eurasia Group’s US director Clayton Allen says the US president would likely see it as a challenge. “Trump would see any move by France to send troops to Greenland as an escalation from what is, to him, a purchase attempt,” he says.
“It would give Trump or those around him a convenient and tangible justification for NATO pullback; if France deploys troops to counter US interests, why should the US expend resources on their defense?”
So far, the Danes are playing it cool. On a whirlwind tour of three European capitals this week, Frederiksen said she had “no reason to believe that there is any military threat to Greenland or Denmark,” but her government recently announceda €2 billion investment in Arctic defense, including three new navy vessels. When asked about the relationship between Europe and Trump, Frederiksen commented, “I think everyone in Europe can see that it will be a different collaboration now.”
At Davos, all eyes are on Trump
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Davos, Switzerland.
What’s been going on here?
It’s been Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. It’s been very much dominated by assessments, curiosity, concern about the transition in the US. A lot of businessmen are fairly, sort of, upbeat. They think there’s sort of a deregulation and lower taxes, that’s good. Economists are more worried. Debts and deficits, that’s not good. And those dealing with geopolitics, like myself, are deeply concerned.
Is he going to go to war with Denmark over Greenland? What’s going to happen with the Panama Canal? Is their Middle East policy that is credible? And what is he really up to when it comes to dealing with Mr. Putin on Ukraine? There are lots of questions, lots of concerns. But, upbeat assessment, in spite of that.