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Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen attends a brief press conference with the German Chancellor in Berlin, Germany, January 28, 2025.
A Greenland temperature check (still cold, but the tea is hot)
Meanwhile, a Greenland independence movement is gaining momentum. Prime Minister Múte Egede recentlytold reporters, “We don’t want to be Danes. We don’t want to be Americans. We want to be Greenlanders.”
But can Greenland go it alone? Denmarkpays roughly $800 million a year to Greenland – making up half of Greenland’s government revenue. While only 57,000 people live on the island, the population maintains a high standard of living like their Nordic neighbors. An independent Greenland would still need economic and security support thanks to existing and rapidly developing external pressures.
If the United States made an aggressive move for the island, Trump would face more than just retaliation from the Danes and Europeans: Other major players, namely China and Russia, could respond aggressively to protect critical shipping routes.
On Wednesday, Danish MEP Morten Løkkegaardsuggested Greenland rejoin the European Union for “protection” from Trump’s threats. He said, “The situation has changed dramatically” since 1985, when the country officially left the European Communities byreferendum vote. Rejoining the EU would mean more support for economic development and security, as well as geopolitical influence.
Trump’s saber-rattling provides a new opportunity for Greenlanders to rethink their stance on European integration … and, perhaps, a way for Europe to strengthen its influence in the Arctic.
French President Emmanuel Macron receives Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Jan. 28, 2025.
France weighs EU troop deployment to Greenland
Geopolitics are heating up in the Arctic. Inan interview Tuesday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Paris had started talking with Copenhagen about sending troops to Greenland, and that the Danes are “open to considering it if our security interests are at stake.” When asked whether the US would invade Greenland, Barrot said, “That won’t happen … No one has any interest in entering into conflict with the European Union.” However, he added that “if Denmark requests the solidarity of the European Union member states, France will be ready to respond.”
Barrot isn’t the only European politician speculating on the need for military defense of Greenland. On Monday, the EU’s Military Committee head, Austrian Gen. Robert Brieger,floated the possibility of deploying EU troops to the island. And during a recent visit to Berlin by Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, German Chancellor Olaf Scholzstressed that “Borders must not be moved by force – to whom it may concern” – a not-so-subtle jab at US President Donald Trump, who has spoken about taking Greenland.
How might a deployment of French troops be received in Washington? Eurasia Group’s US director Clayton Allen says the US president would likely see it as a challenge. “Trump would see any move by France to send troops to Greenland as an escalation from what is, to him, a purchase attempt,” he says.
“It would give Trump or those around him a convenient and tangible justification for NATO pullback; if France deploys troops to counter US interests, why should the US expend resources on their defense?”
So far, the Danes are playing it cool. On a whirlwind tour of three European capitals this week, Frederiksen said she had “no reason to believe that there is any military threat to Greenland or Denmark,” but her government recently announceda €2 billion investment in Arctic defense, including three new navy vessels. When asked about the relationship between Europe and Trump, Frederiksen commented, “I think everyone in Europe can see that it will be a different collaboration now.”
At Davos, all eyes are on Trump
Carl Bildt, former prime minister of Sweden and co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his perspective on European politics from Davos, Switzerland.
What’s been going on here?
It’s been Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump. It’s been very much dominated by assessments, curiosity, concern about the transition in the US. A lot of businessmen are fairly, sort of, upbeat. They think there’s sort of a deregulation and lower taxes, that’s good. Economists are more worried. Debts and deficits, that’s not good. And those dealing with geopolitics, like myself, are deeply concerned.
Is he going to go to war with Denmark over Greenland? What’s going to happen with the Panama Canal? Is their Middle East policy that is credible? And what is he really up to when it comes to dealing with Mr. Putin on Ukraine? There are lots of questions, lots of concerns. But, upbeat assessment, in spite of that.
Houses are pictured in Ilulissat, Greenland, September 14, 2021.
Three reasons why Trump wants Greenland
Donald Trump wants Greenland. The vast, sparsely populated Arctic island has been under Danish control for 300 years, but back in 2019, when he was last president, he floated the idea of buying it. He recently reiterated that, and even refused to rule out using force to get what he wants.
Why would Trump want Greenland?
First, it’s a huge piece of the Arctic, where international competition with Russia and China for control over shipping routes and deepwater mining is heating up as the ice caps melt.
Second, it’s rich in rare earths, which are critical for the manufacture of advanced batteries and other electronics. China currently controls 80% of the world’s rare earths supply. Getting Greenland could change that.
Third, it has massive geothermal energy potential. That could provide virtually limitless clean energy for the energy-hungry AI revolution.
Greenland and Denmark both say the island is “not for sale”. But they’ve also shown interest in deeper economic and defense cooperation with the US, which has had bases in Greenland since World War Two. Danish PM Mette Frederiksen held a 45 minute call with Trump this week.
Meanwhile, polls show support for independence from Denmark is high. Denmark says it will respect whatever the Greenlanders decide on that front and that Trump should do the same.
Greenland's red flags. Despite the famously cheerful colors of their houses and the breathtaking beauty of Greenland's nature, the island's roughly 50,000 people struggle with a number of economic and social challenges. Skilled labor is in short supply, and inflation is high. The government and the fishing industry are by far the two largest employers. The population is shrinking as people emigrate. Suicide rates are routinely the highest in the world.
If the Trump Administration showed up with a significant promise of greenbacks for Greenland, both sides could benefit.
What could happen? Greenland could vote for independence in the near future. If so, the US will press firmly for a preferential bilateral agreement. The big question then would be whether Trump tries to go further, trying to secure more direct control. If so, would other interested global powers (looking at you Russia and China) try to stop that?
Putin makes a stunning accusation at Trump
Putin doesn’t like that Trump is copying his style. So he does what anyone would do ... invade Canada. #PUPPETREGIME
Watch more of GZERO's award-winning PUPPET REGIME series!
What Greenlanders might want from a deal with Trump
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: a Quick Take to kick off your week.
Let's talk about Greenland. First time I ever encountered it was when I was playing Risk in school, and it was this big island between North America and Europe that connected you with Iceland. But it was part of North America, at least on the Risk map, and that's how you got your five armies if you owned the whole thing. So you always threw a couple up there, a lot of big, big territory. And now we're visiting, and Donald Trump Jr. taking Air Trump One last week and landing in Nuuk, the capital of Greenland. Landed for a few hours, did some social media stuff, and then got back to Mar-a-Lago, where he's probably more comfortable. What's happening? Why do the Americans say that they are going to buy it, incoming President Trump, and what does it mean for American alliances and the future of the global order and all of that?
Well, first, let's recognize that as much as it sounds crazy, Trump is not the first president to offer to buy Greenland. He's actually the third. The first was Andrew Johnson. His Secretary of State, William Seward, who was down for Alaska, also offered 5.5 million to buy Greenland. This was back in 1868. The timing is interesting, of course. There's no historic claim on Greenland. The US troops did briefly occupy it in World War II for defensive purposes, but it's not as if the United States has any reason to believe that this should be American. It's not like, say, what the Russians say about Crimea.
And the Greenlandic government, which is itself, it represents all of 55,000 people, despite the size, is led by a separatist political party. They want independence. Independence is popular in Greenland. They've had a few polls, and people generally say that they'd like to be Greenlanders and not part of Denmark. And they are clearly leveraging all of this spotlight from Trump to advance having an independence referendum during parliamentary elections coming up real soon, like in April. And frankly, given that Denmark is a tiny country and spends about $500 million a year on Greenland, that if the Americans came over the top and said, "Well, we'd make you an ally. We'd put troops on the ground and we'd pay you more, not taking it over, Greenland would be an independent state." I think it would be much more likely that Greenland would actually vote for independence. And then, Trump would say, "We've got a new ally, and we've got everything we wanted. And we have these basing rights for the Arctic," and all of that.
It's pretty significant in terms of talking about the Nordics. Denmark has had Greenland as part of its territory since 1830. And Greenland is autonomous, they have their own parliament, which means they are right now in charge of their own domestic affairs, but not foreign or security affairs. So in that regard, also much like Crimea under Ukraine. But they have moved more towards an independence movement over the past decades. In part, self-determination is what people generally are aiming for around the world, with better understanding of others, post-colonial, being able to achieve it for themselves. Also, because there's a difficult history with Denmark. A lot of forced integration, taking Greenlanders from their homes, from their families, to put them in Danish schools and make them more Danish. Even forced birth control to reduce the Greenland explosion of population. Those things are not happening now, but that is a history that was exploitative and makes a lot of Greenlanders feel about the Danes the way that a lot of Native Americans feel about the United States. So, it's understandable why there would be an independence movement.
Now, the Danes, in addition to all the European leaders, are squashing any idea that Greenland is for sale, but that is very different from Greenland might well go independent. And there's no question that Greenland is important, particularly in terms of national security. Russia has put billions of dollars into Arctic infrastructure, including its Northern Fleet, and they're the only country in the world that's really actively trying to seize the Arctic's economic and strategic potential. That's going to become much more important as the ice cap melts, with transit routes, with exploitation of resources. The United States did have some troops on the ground, a meaningful number, in Greenland, something like 10,000. It's now down to 200. They've reduced that. They could certainly expand it with a new relationship with an independent Greenland.
Of course, they could also expand it with a new relationship with Denmark, of which Greenland is a part, Trump not all that interested in that because it doesn't make spectacular headlines, and also because he likes real estate. Let's face it, you look at him personally, and he loves putting his names on pieces of property that are iconic and that have a large visual footprint in the minds of people. And historically, he almost lost his economic empire a few times by holding on to iconic real estate for too long. So is that a factor in how Trump thinks about Greenland? You'd have to imagine it plays a role. So I think we are going to be talking about this actually a lot more over the coming months, and it's going to have a lot more to do with what 55,000 Greenlanders decide to vote for. And then how the Americans negotiate with them.
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Donald Trump faces reporters in the Oval Office on Sept. 11, 2020.
Trump vs. world
The relevant foreign leaders are having none of it. Greenland remains a part of Denmark, though it has governing autonomy on many issues, and Denmark is a member of the European Union. In response to Trump’s latest salvo, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrottold French radio “there is obviously no question that the European Union would let other nations of the world attack its sovereign borders.”
Panama's Foreign Minister Javier Martínez-Achasaid Tuesday that “the only hands operating the Canal are Panamanian and that is how it is going to stay.” The US managed the Panama Canal for decades until a treaty signed by the late US President Jimmy Carter in 1977 gave Panama full control in 1999.
And Canada’s outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Trump’s suggestion that the US and Canada should be part of a single country didn’t have "a snowball's chance in hell" of happening.
The odds of Trump accomplishing any of those goals is minuscule. His bargaining, in business and in politics, has always begun with startling demands meant to shock and awe the other side into concessions. But now other governments know that – and they’re more likely than during his first term as president to meet his blunt challenges with blunt responses.
Greenland's melting glaciers
Hard Numbers: Greenland's zombie ice, Sudanese journos unionize, India’s 5G plan, "Man of the Hole" dies
10.6: Greenland’s rapidly melting ice sheet will add 10.6 inches to already-rising sea levels in the long term, according to a new study. This deluge is because of “zombie ice,” which is essentially still attached to thicker areas of ice but not getting fed by larger glaciers due to low snow levels.
30: Sudanese journalists have created the country’s first union in more than thirty years. Former longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir (1993-2019) was notorious for torturing and imprisoning reporters, while press freedom has again come under siege since the military took over in a coup last fall.
25 billion: Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani announced a $25 billion plan to launch 5G throughout parts of the country within the next few months, with hopes of rolling it out nationwide by Dec. 2023. Tech companies including Meta and Google have struck deals with Ambani’s telecom company to try and expand their market share in India, on track to become the world’s most populous country next year
1: The last member of an Indigenous tribe in Brazil was recently found dead, marking the first confirmed loss of one of the country’s uncontactable tribes. He was known only as the "Man of the Hole'' because of the dozens of trenches he’d dug in his territory over the years. There are estimated to be 114 Indigenous tribes in Brazil, but only 28 have been identified.