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Guatemala President-elect Bernardo Arevalo meets with judges of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal in Guatemala City.
Guatemala’s rocky presidential transition
In recent days, supporters of Guatemala’s President-elect Bernardo Arévalo have been blocking roads across the country to protest ongoing efforts by federal prosecutors to block him from taking office.
The background: In August, Arévalo, a former diplomat who ran on an anti-corruption platform, pulled off an upset, defeating former first lady Sandra Torres. Her supporters, including the current ruling party, alleged fraud, but those claims were disputed by international observers and dismissed by Guatemalan courts. Government prosecutors have since sought to outlaw Arévalo’s political party on a registration technicality.
The protests, led by indigenous groups and Arévalo’s supporters, began after federal agents last weekend attempted to seize voting records from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. Arévalo’s supporters say these claims are an attempt by the establishment to prevent their upstart candidate from taking office.
The US and the Organization of American States — the region’s foremost multilateral body — have supported Arévalo, who on Tuesday met with senior officials in Washington. The protesters say they won’t back down until the attorney general resigns. Arévalo, who has called the attacks on the electoral authorities a “coup,” is due to be inaugurated in January.
A woman walks next to a campaign sign of Guatemala's President-elect Bernardo Arevalo.
Can Guatemala’s president-elect have a party?
The formerly little-known Arévalo has already faced various legal challenges to his victory, which completely blindsided the country’s political establishment. Experts say Arévalo should still be able to take office in January as planned, but the fate of his party is unclear. Arévalo’s camp has said they will appeal the ruling all the way to the Supreme Electoral Court.
Bernardo Arevalo of the Semilla party addresses supporters
Anti-corruption candidate, Bernando Arévalo, wins Guatemalan election
The votes are in, and Guatemalans have overwhelmingly chosen Bernando Arévalo to be their next president, with a majority forcefully rejecting the establishment and voting for a candidate who promises to clean up government corruption. If only it was that simple.
Arévalo won the election by running an aggressive anti-corruption campaign, which helped galvanize young people — who make up a huge portion of the voting population (the average age in Guatemala is 26, compared to 38 in the US) — behind him. Being a self-declared Taylor Swift fan may have helped, but when it comes to the deep-rooted corruption in the government will he be able to just “Shake it off?”
Arévalo won 58% of the vote, but he faces a long road to the Jan. 14 inauguration. The attorney general’s office – which needs to certify the election – is already attempting to suspend the legal status of Arévalo’s Movimiento Semilla Party.
Arévalo will face massive barriers to fulfill his promises to voters of unraveling deep-rooted corruption in Guatemalan politics – and that presumes he makes it. Last week, the attorney general said it was investigating how the party got its signatures to register, its founders, and potentially Arévalo himself, and with the party losing its legal protections on Oct. 31, the outgoing Congress could strip Arévalo of his immunity.
How is this possible? The last two presidential administrations have purged Guatemala’s judicial system and attorney general’s office of anti-corruption judges, forcing dozens of prosecutors and judges into exile. The current president, Alejandro Giammattei, is seeking to overhaul the supreme court before leaving office to stack it with judges friendly to his coalition who will be ready to strike down Arévalo’s anti-corruption agenda.
Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis addresses supporters during a pre-election rally by the island of Salamina.
Where We’re Voting: Greece, Guatemala, Sierra Leone
Got any weekend plans? You should be headed to the polls if you live in Greece, Guatemala, or Sierra Leone.
Greece. About a month ago, the ruling center-right New Democracy Party of Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis swept the parliamentary election with a better-than-expected 40+% of the vote. But since it fell just a few seats short of a parliamentary majority, Mitsotakis called a second round, where different rules make it easier for the top finisher to form a government.
New Democracy will probably win a comfortable majority — a remarkable turnaround for the Greek government just months after the twin crises of a wiretapping scandal and a deadly train crash. Don't expect many voters to sour on Mitsotakis even after the recent shipwreck tragedy because most Greeks appreciate his "tough but fair" stance on migrants.
Guatemala. Most Guatemalans are not feeling upbeat about the strength of their democracy. Turnout for the first-round presidential election in the Central American country will probably be very low since many people don't see the point in showing up for a vote pre-rigged by the courts that disqualified the three main opposition candidates.
There are three main contenders to replace term-limited President Alejandro Giammattei: former first lady Sandra Torres, a centrist; Edmond Mulet, a center-right former diplomat; and Zury Ríos, the far-right daughter of former military dictator Efraín Ríos Montt. The three are neck-and-neck in the polls, with Mulet favored to beat Torres in the runoff in a nation whose flawed democracy means many Guatemalans will continue trying to migrate to the US.
Sierra Leone. If you're Sierra Leonean, you don't take elections for granted. After all, this is only the sixth vote since the country ended a bloody civil war 21 years ago. But that doesn't mean things will go smoothly: British actor Idris Elba, whose dad is from Sierra Leone, tweeted a video calling for peace at the polling stations.
The vote will be all about the economy, stupid. Sierra Leoneans are being crushed by sky-high inflation, which in Aug. 2022 triggered social unrest in the capital, Freetown. Still, President Julius Maada Bio will likely win a second and final term against opposition leader Samura Kamara, who Bio already beat (lol) in 2018.