Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
{{ subpage.title }}
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attend a ceremony for the 70th cohort of military combat officers, at an army base near Mitzpe Ramon, Israel, October 31, 2024.
ICC warrants for Bibi, Gallant will test respect for international law
The International Criminal Court on Thursday issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, accusing them of “crimes against humanity and war crimes” in Gaza — including using “starvation as a method of warfare” and “intentionally directing an attack against the civilian population.”
The court also issued a warrant for Mohammed Deif, the head of Hamas’ armed wing who Israel says was killed in an airstrike. The ICC said it’s not in a position to determine if Deif is dead.
The warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant are emblematic of the growing schism between Israel and the international community amid the Gaza war, and perhaps the sharpest rebuke yet of the Jewish state’s prosecution of the conflict. The move came as the death toll in Gaza surpassed 44,000, according to Palestinian officials.
Will Netanyahu be arrested? Not in Israel or the US, neither of which belongs to the ICC or recognizes its authority. Both countries swiftly condemned the court over the warrants.
The ICC also doesn’t have a police force and relies on member states to make arrests — and the court doesn’t try defendants in absentia. But Netanyahu and Gallant could potentially be arrested and tried if they travel to any of the 124 countries that are ICC member states, including the entire EU.
These warrants will pose a test for Israel’s Western allies if Netanyahu ever plans to visit, and raises questions over how they should interact with the Israeli leader more generally.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said the ICC arrest warrants are “binding” on all countries in the bloc given they’re party to the Rome Statute — the international treaty that established the court. Canada and several European countries have already signaled they’ll abide by the warrants.
We’ll be watching for signs of how these countries plan to handle relations with Netanyahu moving forward — and whether they’ll choose maintaining close ties with Israel over upholding international law.
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian meets with Hamas leader Khaled Mashal, in Doha, Qatar, on Oct. 2, 2024.
Qatar suspends Hamas-Israel mediation efforts
The Gulf Arab emirate announced this weekend it would stop mediating efforts to broker a cease-fire and hostage release deal between Hamas and Israel until “the parties show their willingness and seriousness to end the brutal war.”
For months, talks have failed, despite efforts by the US, Qatar, and Egypt. Hamas demands a permanent cease-fire and complete withdrawal of Israeli troops in exchange for the release of the remaining hostages, while Israel, which has sworn to destroy Hamas, insists on only a temporary truce and the right to occupy the enclave indefinitely.
Relatedly, reports suggested the Qataris, under US pressure, have asked Hamas political leaders to leave the kingdom, where they have enjoyed a safe haven for more than a decade.
Qatar, a US ally, has long served as a channel for talks with Hamas and other groups listed as terror organizations by the West.
Whether Qatar’s gambit will revive productive talks remains to be seen, but with Benjamin Netanyahu now comfortably awaiting the return of his close ally Donald Trump to the White House, it may put more pressure on Hamas than on the Israelis.
While the group could relocate elsewhere, there are no viable options that would offer channels to the West as direct as Qatar’s. Meanwhile, Trump, who has promised to “end” the conflict, has reportedly spoken with Netanyahu at least three times since the election alone.
For a broader look at how Trump 2.0 might shake up US foreign policy, including on the Middle East, see our recent report here.Palestinians gather to receive aid outside an UNRWA warehouse earlier this month in Gaza.
Israel bans main Gaza aid agency despite warnings from US
The Israeli Parliament on Monday voted to ban the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, from operating in its territory — despite warnings from the Biden administration that doing so could impact US policy toward Israel. The Knesset even voted to designate UNRWA a terror group and to prohibit Israeli authorities from having contact with the agency.
UNRWA is the main humanitarian agency in Gaza, and this could impact millions of people who depend on it for aid. Critics of the legislation, which includes allies of the Jewish state, have expressed concern it will exacerbate the already dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where the local health ministry now says over 43,000 Palestinians have died amid the war over the past year. Foreign ministers from Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and the UK on Monday expressed “grave concern” over the Israeli move.
This comes roughly two weeks after Washington told Israel it had 30 days to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or risk cuts to military support from the US.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Millersaid Monday that the US urges Israel not to implement the legislation, underscoring that UNRWA is playing an “irreplaceable role right now in Gaza, where they’re on the front lines of getting humanitarian assistance to the people they need it.” Miller said there’s nothing that can replace UNRWA amid the current crisis.
Israel accuses UNRWA of involvement in the Oct. 7 attack, which killed roughly 1,200 in Israel and saw hundreds of hostages taken. A UN investigation that concluded in August said nine UNRWA employees may have been involved in the attack and all were fired. Several countries suspended funding to UNRWA over the allegations, but most have since restored funding, but not the US.
We’ll be watching to see how this legislation, which won’t take effect for 90 days, impacts the US-Israel relationship.
Meanwhile, across the border, Hezbollah has elected Naim Kassem to succeed Hassan Nasrallah as secretary general after Nasrallah was killed in September.
Kassem was already one of the group's leading spokesmen, often conducting interviews with foreign media. Critics say he lacks his predecessor's gravitas, but the man considered most likely to succeed Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine, was also killed in recent weeks as Israel ramps up its efforts to dismantle Hezbollah.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a memorial ceremony of the Hamas Oct. 7 attack at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 27, 2024, where he was heckled by family members victims.
Calculated hit: Israel strikes Iranian military sites, avoids energy infrastructure
Iran and Israel appear to be standing down from further conflict after Israel struck military targets near Tehran but did not inflict damage on the country’s energy infrastructure. The Saturday morning attacks killed four soldiers and came in retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile assault on Israel, which was a response toIsrael taking out top Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon in September.
Responding in measured tone. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said the Israeli strikes must “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday that Tehran was not looking for war with Israel but would respond “appropriately” and “defend the rights of our nation and country.”
Meanwhile, Iraq's government on Monday lodged a protest with the UN Security Council over Israel's use of Iraqi airspace to attack Iran.
Weekend at Bibi’s. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had both a good and bad weekend. The presiding judge of an International Criminal Court panel reviewing arrest warrant requests for Netanyahu, his defense minister, and senior Hamas leaders has been replaced due to medical reasons, which coulddelay proceedings. But Netanyahu was also heckled on Sunday by families of the victims of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks during a speech marking the tragedy in Jerusalem.
Earlier in the day, a truck rammed into a group of retirees at a bus stop near an Israeli military base north of the capital, killing one and injuring over 30 in a suspected terror attack. The incident follows another attack three weeks ago in which six people were stabbed – two fatally – in the town of Hadera, increasing pressure on the government to ensure internal security as the war with Hamas drags on.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv, Israel, Monday, August 19, 2024.
Blinken urges Netanyahu to ‘capitalize’ on Hamas leader’s death
The FBI on Tuesday announced it’s investigating a leak of US intelligence documents that offer details on Israel’s potential plans for retaliation against Iran over its missile attack earlier this month. The highly classified documents were shared on an Iran-linked Telegram account.
The leak puts the US in an awkward position as the intelligence pertains to spying on an ally. It’s not uncommon for governments to gather intel on allies, but such activities can still be embarrassing when revealed.
As the Biden administration scrambles to discover how the documents were leaked, it’s also pushing for a cease-fire in the Middle East amid Israel’s ongoing conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel is reportedly considering an Egyptian plan for a two-week cease-fire with Hamas, which would see half a dozen hostages exchanged in the process. It’s possible a smaller agreement like this could gain momentum after months of failed international efforts to secure a lasting peace.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel on Tuesday and urged him to capitalize on the recent death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar “by securing the release of all hostages and ending the conflict in Gaza in a way that provides lasting security for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”
We’ll be watching to see if the US reveals more about the source of the leak and whether Israel shows any signs of accepting a cease-fire proposal.
What Sinwar's death means for the war in Gaza
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.
BRICS Summit: A "new world order" or already a relic of the past?
Neither. It's in Kazan in Russia. So, I mean, the big issue is that the fact that Putin is hosting it hasn't stopped people from showing up, and that says a lot about the state of the non-West. If you're not in the G7, you're still finding ways to work with the Russians, and that's not going to change anytime soon. But it is not an alternative to the G7. It's a large grouping, and they have different political, different economic systems. They want to work with everybody. So we're not heading towards a new Cold War, at least not in terms of the big global architecture.
Is Sinwar's death the beginning of the end of the war in Gaza?
I think it is in terms of Israel's military fighting, because they've killed the leadership, they've blown up the tunnels, they've found the arms caches. I mean, there's not much else for them to do. But I mean, the war from the Palestinian perspective is just beginning. They are utterly devastated. They have no ability to have a future for themselves or their kids, and they are going to be fighting for generations. So right now, it doesn't matter much to Israel because they're massively asymmetrically powerful from a military perspective, but long-term this is not something that we're going to be able to forget about.
Yankees versus Shohei Ohtani, I mean Dodgers. Who's winning?
Well, I mean, that is funny of course, because here in Japan everyone has Ohtani fever. You cannot avoid it everywhere you walk. It is pretty exciting. They are the two teams that I wanted to see in the World Series, and I think it's going to be a fascinating week and a half or whatever it is. And I wish... I mean, I tend to root for the Red Sox, which means not rooting for the Yankees. That means I kind of want the Dodgers to win. But at the end of the day, I love sports because a minute after the game is over, I am no longer super excited. And I wish that could be the way that politics work.
Anyway, be good and I'll talk to you all real soon.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken boards a plane, en route to the Middle East, as he departs Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, U.S., October 21, 2024.
US pushes for Middle East cease-fire ahead of Election Day
With exactly two weeks before Election Day in the US, the Biden administration is pushing for cease-fires in Israel’s wars with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
US envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut on Monday as part of this effort. Hochstein said that both sides “simply committing” to UN resolution 1701, a peace agreement that followed the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, “is not enough” and called for a formula “that brings an end to this conflict once and for all.”
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is en route to Israel, where he is expected to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog on Tuesday as part of a renewed push for a Gaza cease-fire.
While achieving a cease-fire on either front could potentially boost Kamala Harris’s campaign, the likelihood of this happening before Nov. 5 appears slim. The US and other international negotiators have pushed for a cease-fire for months, without luck.
Israeli airstrikes continued to pound Lebanon and Gaza over the weekend, and the region is still bracing for Israel’s response to Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack.
We’ll be watching to see if the US can make any progress, but recent history suggests it will be an uphill battle.
Israeli soldiers stand guard as they deny access to Palestinian farmers to harvest olives, in Burqa near Ramallah in the Israeli-occupied West Bank October 20, 2024.
US probes intel leak, drones hit Bibi’s house
Washingtonis investigating a leak of highly classified intelligence about Israel’s preparations for a strike on Iran. Two reports, marked “top secret” and intended only for the US and its Five Eyes allies (Canada, UK, Australia, and New Zealand), began circulating last week on Telegram, a messaging app. They appear to have beenprepared by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and detail Israeli air force exercises and movements of munitions in retaliation for Iran’s Oct. 1 missile attack on Israel.
House Speaker Mike Johnson described the leak as“very concerning” with the potential to damage relations between the US and Israel. They were posted to Telegram around the same time Washington gave Israel 30 days to increase aid to Gaza or risk cuts to its military aid.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah intensified its attacks on Israel’s northern border while one of its dronesstruck the home of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday morning. Netanyahu, who was not home at the time, declared that nothing could deter Israel from winning the war and that “The attempt by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah to assassinate me and my wife today was a grave mistake.” Iran denied responsibility for the attack, trying to distance itself from Hezbollah.
We’re watching how it affects US-Israeli relations ahead of the US election, and whether Washington will follow through on its threats over Gaza.