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Canadians manage to give Modi a headache for a change
For years, Justin Trudeau’s government failed to manage foreign interference in Canadian politics, with officials struggling to explain how they failed to see or act on intelligence reports. It got so bad that frustrated Canadian spies started leaking damaging tidbits, forcing the prime minister to call a public inquiry.
Canada has one of the world’s highest proportions of foreign-born citizens, which leads to lively grassroots diaspora politics, but it has failed to set up adequate protections against outside influence. It is only now setting up a foreign agent registry, for example, and the gaps appear to have been taken advantage of by foreign powers, particularly China and India.
Trudeau has been accused of turning a blind eye to Chinese interference and being too close to separatist Canadian Sikhs, while his Conservative opponents are accused of being too close to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Trudeau and his officials have been on the defensive for years, struggling to explain their inadequate measures while trying to rectify them. But on Monday, his team showed a sign of progress as it took a series of carefully orchestrated steps designed to push back at Modi.
First, Canada announced it had expelled six Indian diplomats, including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma. In New Delhi, after being summoned by India’s Ministry of External Affairs, Canadian Deputy High Commissioner Stewart Wheelertold Indian journalists that Canada had provided “credible, irrefutable evidence of ties between agents of the government of India and the murder of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil.”
Next, senior Royal Canadian Mounted Police officers said they had “evidence pertaining to agents of the government of India’s involvement in serious criminal activity in Canada,” including “well over a dozen credible and imminent threats to life.”
Then, a steely-eyed Trudeau held a news conference outlining the allegations and complaining that India had failed to cooperate with Canadian police and public safety officials. “We will never tolerate the involvement of a foreign government threatening and killing Canadian citizens on Canadian soil,” Trudeau said.
Finally, officials worked the phones, giving off-the-record details to national security reporters in Ottawa and Washington, adding lurid details to the broad picture already laid out by the police and politicians.
Speaking off the record, Canadian officials told journalists that Indian diplomats have been forcing Indian Canadians to spy on one another, using money, visas, and threats for leverage, then sending the information back to India, where a senior official “authorized the intelligence-gathering missions and attacks” on people Modi wanted to be targeted. An unnamed Canadian official told the Washington Post that the senior official in India was Amit Shah, Modi’s right-hand man.
India denounced the “preposterous imputations” and blamed “vote bank politics,” Indian shorthand for Trudeau’s reliance on Sikh Canadian voters. India has often accused Canada of being soft on Sikh separatists, alleging that it harbors terrorists, blaming the Canadians for ignoring Indian warnings that might have prevented the 1985 Air India bombing that killed 329 people.
On their face, the Canadian allegations seem too outlandish to be true. Officials allege that the attacks in Canada were carried out by thugs controlled by famous gangster Lawrence Bishnoi, who is directing assassins on behalf of his masters in the Modi government even while he sits in a Punjab prison cell. The targets include supporters of an independent Khalistan and other people who have gotten on the wrong side of Modi.
India has been demanding evidence of criminality since September 2023, when Trudeau accused Modi of being behind the murder of Canadian Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was gunned down by a hit squad outside a temple in British Columbia that June. Back then, India scoffed and falsely accused Trudeau of being coked up, acting as though Canada was making up lies.
Going to see Uncle Sam
But last November, an indictment was unsealed in New York that revealed Indian national Nikhil Gupta, acting on behalf of Modi’s government, had allegedly tried to hire a hitman to kill Nijjar’s lawyer, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. India’s bumbling 007s made two big mistakes. Pannum is an American citizen, so the Americans could hardly let that slide. And the hitman Gupta tried to hire was actually an undercover Drug Enforcement Agency officer.
Gupta is now in a US prison, and officials in Canada and the police must now have a thick dossier linking India to other assassination attempts, including that of Nijjar.
Sushant Singh, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi and a lecturer at Yale University, says Modi can’t afford to be seen to have angered Uncle Sam.
“There will hardly be any damaging political consequences for Mr. Modi unless the United States decides to pursue its case very very strongly and embarrass India,” says Singh.
“Then it would make a material difference to how Mr. Modi is perceived.”
Trudeau showed his cards just as Indian officials were arriving in Washington this week to help the Americans with their inquiries in the Gupta case, maximizing the impact and embarrassing Modi on the world stage.
One of the most surprising things about the whole affair is that India seemingly did not dial down its activities after Trudeau called them out last year: Canadians allege that a recent attack against a popular singer was linked to Indian intelligence.
What does this mean for Modi?
So far, it’s a murky, inconclusive mess. The Canadians, of course, have proved nothing, and Trudeau’s back is to the wall as he’s facing growing pressure at home to step down as Liberal Party leader. In testimony at the inquiry on Wednesday, he went after his Conservative opponents, linking them to foreign interference, which lends credence to Indian allegations that he is just trying to save his own skin.
But allies have not expressed skepticism about the evidence the Canadians have shared. The US State Department seems unimpressed by India’s failure to cooperate with Canadian authorities, as do the UK and Australia.
Experts think this is a headache for Modi, but it is unlikely to blow up the significant strategic and trade relations between India and its Western friends.
“The US is likely to deliver a clear message to India about interfering in the internal affairs of allied democracies, especially Washington’s trusted Five Eyes partners,” says Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group.
“But it’s also going to seek to contain the fallout from Delhi’s dispute with Ottawa with an eye to the bigger strategic prize: alignment with India as an essential partner to counter China.”
Behind the scenes, Canada’s allies can be expected to twist arms to try to get the Indians to call off their hit squads. If they don’t, they can expect police and intelligence agencies to keep a close eye on their diplomats, even while military and economic ties grow stronger.
Royal Canadian Mounted Police Commissioner Mike Duheme takes part in a press conference about India-linked criminal activity occurring in Canada, in Ottawa, Ontario, October 14, 2024.
India and Canada expel diplomats in deepening criminal scandal
Canadian authorities declared India’s High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma a persona non grata note on Monday, expelling him and five other diplomats from their posts over allegations they were part of a criminal network harassing Canadian Sikhs. New Delhi retaliated by expelling six Canadian diplomats, including Ottawa’s second-in-command in the subcontinent, Stewart Wheeler.
The dispute dramatically burst onto the scene following the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar last year, which led to the arrest and indictment of three Indian nationals. Canada has found itself somewhat isolated from its friends amid the dispute, as the US and European Union attempt to cultivate friendship with India as a counterbalance to Russia and China.
Eurasia Group Senior Analyst Graeme Thompson says the Canadian Royal Mounted Police likely feel confident in the evidence they have collected against India’s diplomats to comment publicly on such a sensitive issue.
“The big question is whether the dispute will be contained to diplomatic tit-for-tat exclusions, or if visa restrictions or other measures affecting business and other people-to-people ties could follow,” he says. “It will also be very interesting to see what, if any, comment US officials make publicly about these developments, which could indicate how the US is handling the dispute behind the scenes.”
Who are the Sikhs, and why is India allegedly going after them? The Sikh religion emerged from the teachings of Guru Nanak in the late 15th century, and its corps of mighty Khalsa warriors carved out an independent empire in what is now northern India and Pakistan between 1799 and 1849. Some Sikhs today still agitate for an independent state of Khalistan, which New Delhi considers a threat to its sovereignty. Canada, home to the largest Sikh community outside India, has found itself in the crossfire.Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses a public meeting, in Khargone, on Tuesday.
Canada is India's “biggest problem”
Without admitting that he sent agents to North America to kill his enemies, Narendra Modi has dropped heavy hints that his government did just that.
Amid his reelection campaign – voting is ongoing through June 1 – the Indian prime minister recently made comments in Hindi about his country’s ability to silence those abroad who challenge his country’s integrity.
“This is the new India. This New India comes into your home to kill you,” he said, according to a report in the Washington Post.
India is not in an apologetic mood, even after it was reported that officers in Indian foreign intelligence were linked to the assassination of Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, and a plot to kill his New York-based associate, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, which was foiled by US law enforcement.
The Biden administration, conscious of India’s indispensability as a counterweight to China, reportedly said it would refrain from a punitive response if India held those responsible to account. The approach was viewed as too accommodating by some US officials.
By contrast, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s response was to announce in the House of Commons that Canada had credible allegations of Indian involvement in Nijjar’s murder. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said this week that her government stands by the allegation that a Canadian was killed in Canada by Indian agents. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police last week arrested three Indian nationals for Nijjar’s murder and said it is still investigating whether the Indian government was involved.
Trudeau’s claim has put Canada in India’s crosshairs again. Its foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, accused Canada of welcoming criminals into the country (Nijjar, who advocated the creation of a Sikh homeland called Khalistan, was subject to an arrest warrant in India but was not extradited because Canada said there was a lack of credible evidence).
Sikh separatism is “not so much a problem in the US; our biggest problem right now is Canada,” Jaishankar told an audience at an event in the eastern city of Bhubaneswar last weekend.
The Liberal government “has given these … advocates of violence a certain legitimacy, in the name of free speech,” he said.
Modi has made clear – and Biden has apparently accepted – that turning a blind eye to the practice of extrajudicial killing is the price of doing business with the new India.
FILE PHOTO: Karan Brar, Kamalpreet Singh and Karanpreet Singh, the three individuals charged with first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder in relation to the murder in Canada of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in 2023, are seen in a combination of undated photographs released by the Integrated Homicide Investigation Team (IHIT).
Canada arrests Nijjar murder suspects
Canada's arrest on Friday of three Indian nationals linked to the assassination of Sikh-Canadian activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar has escalated diplomatic tensions between Ottawa and New Delhi. On Friday, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police charged the trio with first-degree murder and conspiracy, adding that they were investigating whether the suspects had links to the Indian government.
India has called the allegations of government involvement in the Nijjar murder “absurd” and a “political compulsion in Canada to blame India,” in the words of Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. The arrests fall in the middle of the Indian general election in which President Narendra Modiis expected to win a third term.
News of the arrests came the same day that the Canadian government receiveda report on foreign interference in its 2019 and 2021 federal elections, includingIndia's alleged interference in Sikh diaspora affairs. The government has announced legislation to combat such intrusions, including the creation of a foreign agents registry, a measure already in place in Britain and Australia. We’re watching whether this will go ahead in time for Canada’s elections expected next year, and how the ongoing tension between Ottawa and New Delhi plays in Washington, which is doing its best to buddy up to India.
India-Canada: Trudeau's "perverse politics" threatens relations, says Samir Saran
India-Canada relations have hit a crisis point following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s bombshell allegation in September that India was responsible for the murder of a Sikh leader, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia last June. The fallout was swift: India’s foreign ministry dismissed the accusation as “absurd,” both countries expelled top diplomats, and tensions have escalated significantly.
“Friends don’t do this in public,” Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation think tank tells Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, “This was something that should have always been in the private mode.”
Relations between the two countries were already tense before the allegations. India has long been pushing Ottawa to be more assertive in curtailing the Khalistan movement within Canada–a separatist movement with the goal of establishing an independent Sikh state in India’s Punjab region.
The Khalistani movement is considered a terrorist organization by the Indian government, and Saran explains it's so problematic to the Indian public that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has broad support to respond forcefully to Canada’s allegations, even within the political opposition. But despite the growing tension, Saran believes there will always be a link between the two democracies.
“I don’t think this is about India or Indians having any problems with Canada,” Saran says, “I think it’s the Trudeau government’s perverse politics being brought into the spotlight in this part of the world.”
Watch the full interview: Can the India-Canada relationship be fixed after a suspicious murder?
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- Can the India-Canada relationship be fixed after a suspicious murder? ›
- India fires fresh salvos in dispute with Canada ›
- Canada-India relations strained by murder allegation ›
- India and Canada expel diplomats, US treads carefully ›
- Ian Explains: Why India-Canada relations are tense over a mysterious murder ›
Can the India-Canada relationship be fixed after a suspicious murder?
In September, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau leveled a bombshell accusation in Canada’s House of Commons: He announced there were “credible allegations” India was involved in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader and Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia in June.
New Delhi immediately dismissed the claims as “absurd” and demanded any evidence be released publicly, which Canada has yet to do. But the diplomatic fallout was swift: Canada expelled the head of India’s security service in Canada, and New Delhi demanded dozens of Canadian diplomats leave India.
On GZERO World, Ian Bremmer speaks with Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation, a top Indian think tank, to discuss the fallout from the shocking allegations, the history of the Khalistan separatist movement within Canada, and where the two countries go from here, given their strong diasporic and economic links.
“I don't think this is about India or Indians having any problems with Canada,” Saran tells Bremmer, “I think it is Trudeau's government's perverse politics that is now being brought into the spotlight in this part of the world.”
Saran also unpacks the paradox of India’s relationship with China, its second-largest trading partner, as tension continues to rise on the Himalayan border.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
Podcast: Death and diplomacy: A look at India-Canada tensions with Samir Saran
Listen: The GZERO World Podcast takes a look at an international murder mystery that dominated headlines in September: Canada's allegation that India was involved in the assassination of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia in June. New Delhi has dismissed the accusation as “absurd” and demanded any evidence be released publicly, which Canada has yet to do. But the diplomatic fallout has been swift: Canada expelled the head of India’s security service in Canada, and New Delhi demanded dozens of Canadian diplomats leave India.
Ian Bremmer speaks with Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation, a top Indian think tank, to unpack the fallout from the shocking allegations, the history of the Khalistan separatist movement within Canada, and where the two countries go from here, given their strong diasporic and economic links. Saran also discusses the paradoxical nature of India’s relationship with China and tensions on the Himalayan border, India's role in the BRICS partnership as a leader of the Global South, and the feasibility of India's ambitious goal to get 50% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030.
Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.
Ian Explains: Why India-Canada relations are tense over a mysterious murder
On June 18th in a Vancouver suburb, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh leader and Canadian citizen, pulled his grey pickup truck out of a parking space at his local temple. In security video viewed by The New York Times and The Washington Post—but not yet released to the public—a white sedan can be seen cutting off Nijjar’s truck as two men in hooded sweatshirts emerge from a covered area and fire a reported 50 bullets into the pickup truck’s driver’s seat, killing Nijjar instantly.
And then, weeks later, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a bombshell accusation on the floor of Canada’s parliament. “Over the past number of weeks," Trudeau announced, "Canadian security agencies have been actively pursuing credible accusations of a potential leak between agencies of the government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Any involvement of a foreign government in the killing of a Canadian citizen on Canadian soil is an unacceptable violation of our sovereignty.”
Just to give you a sense of how serious this announcement was, imagine if the journalist Jamal Khashoggi had been an American citizen, and the Saudis had killed him in New York, Ian Bremmer explains on GZERO World.
Canada is home to the largest Sikh community outside of India. Sikhs are a religious minority that makes up less than 2% of the Indian population. A militant wing of the community has long called for the creation of a Sikh state called Khalistan. In 1984, Sikh bodyguards assassinated India’s Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Nijjar, a supporter of the Khalistan movement who migrated to Canada in the 1990s, was accused by New Delhi of involvement in terrorist acts in India, an accusation he and his supporters have denied.
It’s a challenging time for Canada–India relations, to be sure. Trudeau raised Nijjar’s assassination with Modi at the G20 summit in early September. The answer he got in private was unsatisfactory, and he decided to go public. All of this puts the US in a tough spot: Washington has been cultivating India as a much-needed partner against China. But New Delhi has now allegedly ordered the murder of a Canadian citizen in Canada, one of the US’s closest allies. It’s a staggering violation of international law and norms, especially between two democracies. And it’s a position the Biden administration never expected to be in.
Catch GZERO World with Ian Bremmer every week at gzeromedia.com/gzeroworld or on US public television. Check local listings.
- India and Canada expel diplomats, US treads carefully ›
- India fires fresh salvos in dispute with Canada ›
- Canada accuses India of assassination ›
- Canada-India relations strained by murder allegation ›
- India-Canada standoff heats up while US seeks a compromise ›
- Podcast: Death and diplomacy: A look at India-Canada tensions with Samir Saran - GZERO Media ›
- Canada's fight with India over Sikh assassination heats up again - GZERO Media ›