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Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump dances during a rally at Mullett Arena in Tempe, Arizona, U.S. October 24, 2024.
Election Countdown: 15 key counties that could determine the outcome
With four days to go before Election Day, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were in Nevada and Arizona on Thursday to shore up support in the critical western swing states. At dueling rallies, the candidates made bids to win over Latino voters and focused on border security.
In Nevada, home to a large number of service workers and an economy that has struggled to rebound from COVID, Trump and Harris touted their plans for exempting tips from taxes.
In Arizona, both candidates are banking on ballot initiatives to boost turnout. Republicans are rallying around a ballot initiative making illegal border crossings a state crime, while Democrats are hoping a measure enshrining the right to an abortion in the state’s constitution will spur pro-choice voters to the polls.
Arizona is likely to come down to just one county: Maricopa.
There has been no shortage of attention paid to the seven swing states that are likely to decide this hyper-close election. But within those states, there are counties that are key indicators of how each state will end up.
“The counties to watch in the election are a mixture of bellwethers that tend to go the way of their states, big counties that have an outsized impact on state results, and counties that will provide key information on how the candidates are performing among particular demographic groups,” explains Eurasia Group’s Noah Daponte-Smith.
So, without further ado, here are the counties to watch as the results roll in on Tuesday night.
In Arizona, whoever wins Maricopa, which encompasses Phoenix and its surrounding areas, is likely to win the state’s 11 Electoral College votes. The whole election could hinge on this county because of how long it is expected to take to tally all of its votes.
Maricopa has a population of over 4.5 million residents, more than the populations of nearly half of the states in the US, and Republican-pushed voting laws are going to slow down the count. Because of this, election officials are warning that it could take up to 13 days to count all the ballots, which, if the election is close, could mean the winner isn’t known for nearly two weeks.
Pennsylvania has four bellwether counties that will serve as signals for whether the state – which has a 90% chance of determining the election – is going red or blue. Harris needs to excel in democratic stronghold Philadelphia, at least outpacing Biden’s 2020 performance, if she is going to win the Keystone State. Erie, Pittsburg, and Scranton are also key indicators of how the winds are blowing.
Pennsylvania is unlikely to be decided for a day or two because of rules that forbid counting absentee ballots before Election Day.
In Georgia, all eyes will be on Atlanta’s Fulton and DeKalb counties, as well as its surrounding suburbs of Gwinnett, Henry, and Cobb. The key thing to look for is Harris’ margins with Black voters, which not only are likely to determine whether she wins the state but will also shed light on how she is tracking with Black voters nationwide.
Wisconsin is anyone’s game and may depend on whether the margins in Milwaukee and its surrounding suburbs of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington are closer to 2016, when Trump won, or 2020, when Biden took back the state.
North Carolina is expected to be the first swing state to be decided. As early results roll in, look at the Charlotte suburbs of Union and Cabarrus, which will show how Harris is faring among suburban voters.
Republicans have held the state in every election since Obama in 2008, when he won in large part because of high Black voter turnout. Harris needs to drive similar volumes of Democratic turnout, which is likely to come from the suburbs outside of cities like Charlotte, to offset Trump’s dominance in rural parts of the state.
Political endorsements: Do they help or hurt trust in journalism?
Smart or spineless? Should newspapers endorse candidates, or does it undermine their objectivity?
When Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos announced last week that his paper would no longer publish political endorsements — as they have done for decades — the backlash was swift. 200,000 people canceled their subscriptions, according to NPR. Retired Post Executive Editor Marty Baron unleashed a furious volley on X. “This is cowardice, with democracy as its casualty,” he raged. “Disturbing spinelessness at an institution famed for courage.”
For Baron, missing editorial vertebrae is a virtual news pandemic. The Los Angeles Times also canceled endorsements. Gannett, which owns 200 papers including USA Today, banned presidential endorsements earlier in the year.
Was the Post’s move, as Baron suggested, a lame, last-minute attempt to appease Donald Trump (should he win) and curry political favor?
The timing sure looks bad. If Bezos wanted to change the Post’s policy, he should have done it much earlier. Yanking endorsements days before a close election is like giving yourself a political wedgie, an awkward, painful experience that seems totally inappropriate. It undermines the integrity of the decision and gives it the sour sniff of desperation, a weak obeisance to Trump’s anti-media threats. Showing fear of the powerful is a malignant condition for any news organization.
But while the timing looks weak, the merits of the argument are strong. Bezos is right to point to aGallup poll from October showing that trust in the media is at an all-time low, with only 31% saying they are confident the media reports the news fairly and accurately.
“For the third consecutive year, more US adults have no trust at all in the media (36%) than trust it a great deal or fair amount,” wrote Gallup. “Another 33% of Americans express ‘not very much’ confidence.” As a comparison, in the 1970s, trust in the media was closer to 70%. Even in the early 2000s, trust was still about 55%.
Bezos sees endorsements as one reason for this collapse. To him, endorsements are a dangerous vestige of a bygone era that undermines the trust in objective journalism. “What presidential endorsements actually do is create a perception of bias,” he wrote. “A perception of non-independence. Ending them is a principled decision, and it’s the right one.”
Gannett took a slightly more nuanced position than Bezos, banning national endorsements for president but letting its local papers endorse at the local level. “We believe America’s future is decided locally – one race at a time,” Gannett announced in a statement to CNN.
This may be a distinction without a difference, but nuance matters. Papers have long published editorials on various subjects, and readers look to those positions for some guidance. They should and will continue. Editorials are marked as such and function as separate sections for readers to discern. An election endorsement is different. It taints all reporters’ work with a political hue.
Outlets that openly skew to one political side — right or left — should be happy to continue to endorse and present their reasons. Why not? They are open about their partisanship and political bent, and they make money selling their papers to people who like that view.
But for any media organization fighting to maintain an objective, nonpartisan reputation, political endorsements alienate readers from one or another side, driving them to partisan outlets that may have no journalistic standards at all. Readers can make up their own minds on who to vote for without a paper picking sides.
At GZERO, we have never endorsed a political candidate. Our policy is to maintain objective, nonpartisan journalism and analysis, without becoming toothless bores whose neutrality masks an unwillingness to call out facts or press back against the tide of disinformation and bullshit. But who you vote for is up to you. Our job is to present the facts, the stories, and the policies clearly, put them in perspective, and make sure you have the tools to make an informed decision.
Speaking of election tools, we have a full toolbox for you here to get all the insights you need for the wild events surrounding this election, from our Bloc by Bloc series on America’s changing voting patterns and key factors that may sway the election, to a deep dive into the seven swing states that will determine the next president.
Also, please tune in to Ian Bremmer and Van Jones tomorrow on our new Substack channel (subscribe today) at 2:15 p.m. ET for a great chat about the drivers of the election so far.
We will also have election night coverage on our website and on Substack, where you can participate in the virtual watch party. And join us for our live X space at 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 6, even if there is no confirmed winner.
So while we don’t endorse endorsements, however you choose to vote, please join in the conversation. We keep it civil and fact-based, and we don’t think it is a crime to enjoy talking politics.
US election: America is at war with itself
In a powerful and candid address, Ian Bremmer delivered a sobering reflection on the state of democracy in the United States during his annual "State of the World" speech at the 2024 GZERO Summit Japan in Tokyo.
"My country, the United States, is today at war with itself," said Bremmer.
With the November 5th election on the horizon, Bremmer highlighted the fractures within the US political system, emphasizing the growing chasm between political parties, voters, and the institutions meant to uphold democracy. He further painted a grim picture of the post-election period, saying, "We are about to have an election whose outcome will be perceived as illegitimate by nearly half of the country."
He noted that tens of millions of Americans are disillusioned and convinced that their political system is broken. The stakes are high, and the larger issue is the growing perception among voters that their democracy is being "stolen" or "subverted." The result is a deeply polarized nation, where even after a president is eventually declared, a significant portion of the population will reject the legitimacy of the outcome, leading to political and social instability.
Click to watch Ian Bremmer’s analysis and his full 2024 "State of the World" speech.
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Supporters attend a rally for Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden, in New York, U.S., on Oct. 27, 2024.
Trump rallies in NYC, Harris hits Philly in star-powered final push
With the US election just eight days away, it’s crunch time for the presidential campaigns. Republican candidate Donald Trump headlined a rally Sunday night at Madison Square Garden in New York, a state that last backed a Republican in 1984. While the former president knows he's unlikely to win the Empire State outright, his event could boost local GOP candidates. Trump was accompanied by familiar allies like Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Rudy Giuliani.
The speeches all communicated a similar message: Trump’s support is underestimated, his followers are oppressed, and the system is rigged. “No fair system would elevate someone like Kamala Harris to a presidential nomination,” said Carlson.
But racial insults and a distasteful comment about Puerto Rico at the event from pro-Trump comedian Tony Hinchcliffe, host of the “Kill Tony” podcast, have led to a backlash, even from fellow Republicans.
Still, there was no shortage of support on the streets outside the arena, with lines stretching across multiple avenues and some supporters even camping overnight to get a good seat. “I’m here because of the high interest rates and securing the border,” Tom Miller, of Pennsylvania, told GZERO's Riley Callanan. “New York is going down the tube. There are lines down the block in Times Square of migrants that get to live in hotels for free,” complained Jay Murphy, 56, while Carol Harper, 43, of Fire Island, cautioned that “There’s already voter fraud happening in Pennsylvania.”
Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris was in The Keystone State, visiting a barbershop and a Puerto Rican restaurant in Philadelphia. Harris focused on mobilizing Black voters at Philadelphia’s Church of Christian Compassion, warning that if voters pick Trump, they’ll get a president “full of grievance … retribution and revenge.” On the same theme, Harris will be in Washington, DC, on Tuesday to deliver what her campaign calls her “closing argument,” speaking from the Ellipse, the grassy space adjacent to the National Mall where then-president Trump exhorted his supporters to march on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
The stars are shining bright – but will they matter? Trump’s Sunday night event was set to feature Elon Musk, conservative pundit Tucker Carlson, Hulk Hogan, and RFK Jr. As for Harris, after a week featuring appearances by both former President Barack Obama and former First Lady Michelle Obama, as well as singer Beyoncé, the vice president plans to visit North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin on Wednesday with musical performances featuring Mumford & Sons. Trump will also make a stop in Wisconsin before heading to speak on Friday at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, the site of this year’s Republican National Convention.
Contributed reporting from Riley Callanan.
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump, are seen in a combination of file photographs taken on the campaign trail in October.
Eagle Claw and the death of the October surprise
Is there an October surprise that might make or break a president?
The October surprise dates back to President Jimmy Carter, who turned 100 this month and, surprising many, managed to cast his vote for Kamala Harris.
During his 1980 campaign against Ronald Reagan, Carter believed a daring rescue of the 52 hostages that Iranian revolutionaries held after storming the American Embassy on Nov. 4, 1979, would turn things around.
So Carter launched Operation Eagle Claw. On April 24, 1980, eight helicopters and a C-130 plane secretly landed in the desert outside of Tehran to start the rescue operation. It was a colossal failure. Several choppers malfunctioned in a sandstorm and one crashed, killing eight US servicemen. Their bodies were later recovered by the Iranians and used in a sickening public display in Tehran.
Years later, I traveled to Atlanta, Georgia, to interview Carter, and he told me that, in his unequivocal view, had that helicopter not crashed, the hostages would have been rescued, and he would have won the election.
Still, even after Eagle Claw failed, the Reagan campaign feared an “October surprise,” where, at the very last moment, Carter would announce a dramatic arms-for-hostages deal with Iran. It never happened, and the hostages were released under Reagan, but since then, campaigns have braced for a late-breaking event that might change the course of an election.
There have been other examples of October surprises since then. In October 1992, former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger was indicted, derailing George H.W. Bush’s reelection bid. And, of course, in October 2016, FBI Director James Comey dropped the news that he was opening up an investigation into Hillary Clinton, helping Trump win that election.
Will there be an October surprise this year?
The answer is likely no, and that’s one of the biggest mysteries of this campaign: Why not?
First off, the most consequential surprises this year came much earlier than October — Biden was pushed out in favor of Harris, while Trump was convicted of 34 felonies and survived two assassination attempts. Few things can top those.
What about this week’s revelation that Trump’s former Chief of Staff John Kelly, a retired Marine general, alleges that Trump wanted to have generals like Hitler’s and that he’s an “authoritarian” who “admires people who are dictators”? The Trump campaign has denied this, but for all the press it’s getting, it’s hardly a surprise. Kelly and other former disgruntled Trump folks have long said all kinds of nasty things about the GOP nominee, and none of it has made a bit of difference to the campaign.
Trump remains slightly ahead in most national polls. Harris has run a solid, billion-dollar campaign, and while she can be vague and tends to serve up word-salad answers without any policy protein — as she did last night on CNN — Trump has had a far more ragged, rant-filled road, with significantly worse blunders, lies, and outbursts. And yet, it is still a coin toss, with the odds slightly favoring him.
That’s frustrating to Democrats, who think Trump has made a litany of disqualifying errors and statements, but none of them have stuck. Why not?
One reason may be that Trump’s main issues — when he stays on message — are the economy, immigration, and security, and those are proving to be more salient than the ones the Democrats focus on, such as democracy, abortion, and their record. They carry the weight of incumbency, and in 2024, that’s a drag.
A second, deeper reason is that Trump has become, essentially, surprise proof. He has so normalized personal character flaws and institutional distrust that it makes an October surprise impossible.
That merits a moment of reflection. The inherent assumption supporting an “October surprise” is that there are widely accepted conventions of behavior and social norms. When those are undermined or contradicted by a “surprise,” it will destroy a campaign. In past campaigns, that has been the exposure of lies, infidelities, corruption, a spelling error (the bar was so low for Dan Quayle), or a financial scandal. But we have had all of those in this run and … bupkis. Nothing moves. Harris might be more susceptible to a surprise because she is less well-known, but even her supporters don’t care about allegations of plagiarism or her policy flip-flops on fracking.
In 2024, the October surprise just doesn’t exist anymore. Polarization has so ossified the USA that partisans are shockproof. That may be a good thing as it means avoiding a cheap, manufactured scandal changing an election outcome, but it is also a sign that a healthy democracy is losing some of its early warning signals. Pain and surprise are signals to your body that something is wrong or threatening. It looks like today, the body politic feels no pain and, so, no surprise.
No matter what new story emerges in the final 12 days, don’t think for a moment it will make any difference. The biggest surprise will be on Nov. 5.
Bloc by Bloc: America’s Changing Voting Patterns
This GZERO 2024 election series looks at America’s changing voting patterns, bloc by bloc.
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- The Arab-American vote in the shadow of Oct. 7
- The gaping gender divide in the 2024 election
- Can Dems win back the working class?
- How the youth and senior votes will influence the US election (pre-Biden withdrawal)
- Biden and Trump fight over a changing “Latino Vote” (pre-Biden withdrawal)
- Trump gambles to woo Black voters
Ian Bremmer on the US election & crisis of democracy
With the US presidential election less than two weeks away, Ian Bremmer weighed in on who could come out on top in his "State of the World" speech at the 2024 GZERO Summit in Tokyo. Bremmer says the US faces a crisis of democracy, but who does he think will win the upcoming election? Watch to hear his prediction.
Click to watch Ian Bremmer’s analysis and his full 2024 "State of the World" speech.
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FILE PHOTO: Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' face appears as a video plays on a screen, during a rally at Huntington Place in Detroit, Michigan, U.S. October 18, 2024.
Everything you need to know about the 7 swing states that could decide the election
The US election will likely be decided in the seven highly competitive swing states of Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Within these, there are various combinations that Kamala Harris or Donald Trump could secure to make it to the 270 electoral college votes needed to win.
If both candidates win all the states that solidly and likely lean their way, Harris would still need 44 electoral votes from the tossup states to win, and Trump would need 51. Here’s a roadmap of each candidate’s route through the swing states to the White House, and the key voters and issues in each state, in order of their number of electoral votes.
Pennsylvania is arguably the most important battleground state because it has 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state, and it's hard to imagine either candidate winning the White House without it. According to election analyst Nate Silver, the candidate who wins Pennsylvania has more than a 90% chance of winning the White House.
Pennsylvania historically trended slightly blue, but in recent years the state has purpled. The state House is divided and the last few general elections have been decided on razor-thin margins. That was until the 2022 governor’s race when Democrat Josh Shapiro triumphed over a Trump-backed Republican by almost fifteen points, and his approval ratings in the state remain strong.
When it comes to the issues and key demographics, Pennsylvania is a mini America. The economy is transitioning from manufacturing to newer industries, and agriculture is still the state’s second largest industry. It also has a massive energy sector – where fracking is and the green energy transition are major issues.
Demographically, the majority of the population is white, but the immigrant population is increasing. Twelve percent of the population is black, just under the national total of 13%. The two major cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, lean blue, and the vast rural stretches between them are dominated by Republicans.
Harris currently leads by less than 1 point, meaning it’s a dead tie. In 2020, Joe Biden only won the state by 1.2 points.
Georgia has 16 electoral college votes, and after years of Republican dominance, Biden clinched the closest win in 2020, at just 0.2 points, largely thanks to the state's rapidly diversifying population, marking the first time a Democratic presidential candidate won the state in nearly three decades.
It has also been the site of a battle over whether votes would be hand-counted on election night, but a judge struck down the proposal this week, ruling it would be too disruptive.
Just under half of the Peach State’s population is non-white. Thirty-three percent of the population is Black, and both candidates are vying to win their vote. Strong Black voter turnout – key to Biden’s Georgia victory in 2020 – was credited in large portion to the efforts of Stacey Abrams, who is also campaigning on Harris’ behalf this election. But Trump is trying to win those voters to his side by focusing on his economic policies, illegal immigration, and inflation.
Harris is also campaigning heavily on the state’s abortion restrictions, in recognition that women, who comprise 51% of Georgia’s population, could also play a crucial role in winning the state.
As of now, the state is leaning back toward its Republican roots. Trump is ahead there by two points.
North Carolina, with 16 electoral votes,has been won by Republicans in every presidential election since 2012. But right now, the state is a toss-up, with Trump ahead by less than one point.
Trump carried North Carolina in 2020 by just 70,000 votes, which has buoyed Democrats' hopes that this purple state could be winnable this year. The state is still reeling from Hurricane Helene, and Harris is trying to boost recovery efforts while Trump is criticizing and spread misinformation about FEMA not doing enough – or even being completely corrupt. He is also campaigning on illegal immigration and the economy.
Next up is Michigan, which has 15 electoral college votes, and because it has the largest proportion of Arab Americans, it has become the nationwide epicenter for backlash over Biden’s support for Israel's war in Gaza. During the Democratic primary in the state, more than 100,000 voters chose the “uncommitted” option on their ballots to push the US government to halt its military aid to Israel.
Most of these voters realize a Trump administration would be even more supportive of Israel. But they feel unrecognized by the DNC, especially after the party decided not to have a pro-Palestine speaker at the DNC. As a result, the appeal of voting third-party, or not at all, is growing in the Great Lakes State.
Arizona, with 11 electoral votes, is the focal point of the nation’s immigration debate thanks to its 372-mile-long border with Mexico. Trump is showing strength in this Sun Belt State and is ahead by 2 points, in large part because of support from the state’s Hispanic voters. At his rallies in the state, Trump has repeatedly attacked Harris’ record on immigration, because she was given a role by President Joe Biden to try to ease the border crisis.
However, Democrats are banking that ballot measures codifying the right to abortion in the state will help drive turnout. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, state Republicans tried unsuccessfully to reinstate a 160-year-old near-total ban on terminating pregnancies, before the issue of whether to add the right to an abortion to the state constitution landed on the ballot to be decided in November.
Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes,is a key component of the Democrats' clearest path to victory – which would be winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Like in 2020, it has the potential to be a “tipping point” giving either candidate the edge. Wisconsin was once considered a reliably blue Rust Belt state. But it became a big-time battleground after Trump eked out a victory there in 2016.
The state is overwhelmingly white, and white working-class voters are a key group for both candidates. Notably, Harris garnered the endorsement of the local Teamsters union in Wisconsin despite national union representatives deciding not to back a candidate in the race and dispersed internal data showing a majority of members backed Trump.
But another important group is independent voters. While Wisconsin does not register voters by political party, the electorate is fairly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, with a notable independent population in between. These independent voters helped Trump win the state in 2016 and helped Biden take the reins in 2020.
The biggest issues in the state are the economy, crime, and abortion. As things stand now, neither candidate has a lead, with Harris ahead by less than one vote.
Last and with the least electoral weight, is Nevada. Harris currently leads – if you can call it that – by less than 1 percentage point in this Sun Belt swing state. That being said, it is tricky to predict because it has more registered independent voters than Democrats or Republicans. However, with just 6 electoral votes, it is much less likely to be decisive.
Once decidedly blue, the Democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins since 2000. It is also the most diverse battleground state, and Harris has shrunk Trump’s lead since she took to the ticket.
Even though the US economy has shown strong growth and job creation since Biden took the presidency, the post-COVID recovery has been slower in Nevada than elsewhere. At 5.1%, the state has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. Trump has been campaigning in the state to lower taxes and lessen regulations.
It’s war game time. Harris’ most obvious strategy is Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But this would get her to exactly 270 votes, and only if she won all of the states Biden won in 2020. This is risky. Any misstep, even just losing Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, could lose her the presidency.
If she loses Pennsylvania, which she very well might, she’d need to pick up one of the two Sun Belt states and one of the two Southern states to win — so long as she still carries Michigan and Wisconsin. There’s also the chance she could repeat Biden’s 2020 victory, winning Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- though that would be quite a blowout.If Trump loses Pennsylvania, he could reach 270 by winning the two swing states where he is ahead the most, Georgia and Arizona, as well as Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan.
Trump’s easiest path to victory is blocking Harris in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. To do this, Trump would need to exceed his 2020 performance in suburban counties. But like Harris, this strategy of winning exactly 270 leaves no room for error. All that we really know is that whoever wins Pennsylvania will be well on their way to winning the White House.