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US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Panama's Minister of Public Security Frank Abrego shake hands n Panama City, Panama, on April 8, 2025.
Trump administration doubles down on Panama Canal control
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth vowed on Tuesday to work with Panama to “take back the Panama Canal from China’s influence.” Hegseth, the first top US military official to visit Panama in decades, held security talks with the country’s president, José Raul Mulino.
The background: The US built the canal before World War I and ceded control of it to Panama in 1999. President Donald Trump has pledged to “take it back,” citing concerns about Chinese influence on the crucial waterway, which currently handles 5% of global trade.
Earlier this year, after a Panamanian probe of Chinese influence, a deal was struck for a US-led consortium to buy two ports, located at either end of the canal, that are currently run by a Hong Kong-based company. But Beijing has balked at that, and the deal is now in legal limbo.
Meanwhile, the US has reportedly drawn up plans to increase its military presence around the canal and even to seize it by force, if necessary. This idea is deeply unpopular in Panama, where 85% of the population say the Canal should stay in local hands, according to a recent poll.
The upshot: The Trump administration is doubling down on its vision of greater American control over what it sees as a natural sphere of hemispheric influence.
For a fun look at what the Panama Canal, US foreign policy, and Bad Bunny have to do with each other, see here.
President Donald Trump speaks from the Oval Office flanked by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on the day he signed executive orders for reciprocal tariffs, Feb. 13, 2025.
Opinion: Searching for signals on ‘Liberation Day’
Now in its third month, Trump 2.0 has sustained a breakneck pace. In recent days, the administration announced 25% tariffs on automobiles, conceived of secondary tariffs for nations buying oil from Venezuela (and potentially Russia and Iran), and reiterated its interest in “getting” Greenland.
Market participants have held their breath for Wednesday – “Liberation Day” – as the administration is set to unveil global tariffs, the lynchpin of its America First trade policy.
As the zone has flooded, predicting the current administration’s next moves has become an Olympic-level sport. Details of a group chat between senior administration officials that leaked last week – the so-called Houthi PC small group – provide allies, adversaries, and watchers with revealing insights into the administration’s foreign policy blueprint.
Reestablishing deterrence
While campaigning, President Donald Trump was fond of saying that no wars broke out during his presidency and that the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel-Gaza would never have happened if he had been president. In the run-up to his inauguration, Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine on his first day in office (later extended to within six months). On Gaza, Trump posted on social media that Hamas would have “all hell to pay” if they did not release Israeli hostages before he was sworn in.
Whether the administration was prepared to back up these threats with action hung as a giant question mark. During his first term, Trump largely avoided large-scale security operations. The major exception was the January 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Quds Force. This time, the risk of threatening “all hell” is that to establish credibility, you may have to administer “all hell.”
On March 15, the US military began conducting a series of air strikes on Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen – the operation at the heart of the group chat.
Exchanges in the chat tell us this use of force was strategic by design.According to the transcript, after Vice President JD Vance shared concerns about conducting the attacks, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth countered, “We are prepared to execute, and if I had final go or no go vote, I believe we should. This is not about the Houthis. I see it as two things: 1) Restoring Freedom of Navigation, a core national interest; and 2) Reestablish deterrence, which Biden cratered.” The message is clear: this is not about the Houthis; this is about the Trump 2.0 administration telegraphing its willingness to carry out “all hell.” TheUS has reportedly deployed B-2 bombers and cargo planes to the region as a further indicator of the administration’s apparent willingness to conduct additional strikes.
A ledger of allies
Hegseth’s remarks also reveal another principle of the Trump 2.0 foreign policy: Isolationism is dead, long live America First. During the first Trump administration, there was a sense that the president’s focus on rebuilding manufacturing jobs and tightening immigration meant that the US was taking its ball and going home. Now, Trump and his team are scanning the horizon, looking for angles, and from Greenland to Canada to Venezuela and Yemen,no stone is being left uncovered.
Since Oct. 7, 2023, Houthi militants have targeted shipping assets traversing the Red Sea, depressing trade through the channel and setting off a global rerouting of trade. Trump ordered the sea lanes reopened. As laid out in the group chat, the administration sees it as the US's role and a core national interest to restore freedom of navigation. In fact, according to Hegseth, “VP: I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC. But [US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz] is correct, we are the only ones on the planet (on our side of the ledger) who can do this. Nobody else even close.”
Much has been made of the anti-Europe tone of the conversation. Anyone sitting in European capitals will certainly be disappointed by the language and accompanying content that the US will be looking to Europe to foot its security bill. But anyone sitting in European capitals hopefully already knows to expect this. That Trump (like President Barack Obama before him and President Joe Biden after him) wants to see Europe pay more for its collective defense is not new or news. What should, however, buoy Europe is that the US still counts itself on the same side of the ledger as its Western allies and that it feels a responsibility – a unique responsibility – toward them. This is not a case of the US pulling up the drawbridge. This is a US administration taking aim and looking for others to help settle the bill.
There can be no doubt that following the daily turns of the US administration can leave the rest of the world gasping for air. In his second term, Trump’s true north is legacy – perhaps even athird term. Through a relentless drive on tariffs, secondary tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and other measures, he is further aligning national security and economic security toward an ambition of bringing revenue and investment back to the US. This is a years-long project, beginning on Liberation Day, and no three-month period can definitively judge its outcome. The administration initiated the Houthi operation to backstop its economic policy prong with a hard-power policy prong. Going forward, when threats of a “bad situation” or of bombing Iran are made unless a deal is struck, they will carry weight.
Still, Trump hopes that his “proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier.” The US is not leaving the world alone, for better or for worse.
Lindsay Newman is a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on March 30, 2025.
Japan courts both the US and China on security and trade
The two countries agreed tospeed up plans to jointly develop and produce missiles such as Advanced Medium-Range Air to Air Missiles, or MRAAM, and consider producing SM-6 surface-to-air missiles. Japan and the US will also accelerate the maintenance of American warships and warplanes at its air bases in Japan and boost defense industries in both countries.
But America isn’t Japan’s only friend in the neighborhood. On the same day that Hegseth met with Nakatani, the trade ministers of South Korea, China, and Japan held theirfirst economic dialogue since 2020 in Seoul. The three countries are seeking to strengthen their economic relationship in the face of US tariffs set to rise on “liberation day,” April 2. Their next meeting will take place in Japan.President Donald Trump talks to the media next to Tesla CEO Elon Musk, with a Tesla car in the background, at the White House on March 11, 2025.
Report: Pentagon set to reveal secret China war strategy to … Elon Musk
Elon Musk may have a big day ahead. On Friday, according to the New York Times, he’ll reportedly be made privy to war plans for a US military conflict with China. But President Donald Trump has notably denied that Musk will be briefed on China during the visit.
While discussions about such a confrontation within the walls of the Pentagon are nothing new — defense officials have been war-gaming such a scenario for years — this would be a novel and expanded advisory role for the man at the helm of DOGE, the agency that has federal workers dodging pink slips.
The Tesla CEO was, according to the NYT report, invited to visit America’s five-sided symbol of strength by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who will lead a slide presentation detailing the operational plan, aka O-plan, from early indications of a possible threat from China through to full-on engagement.
Is there a conflict of interest? Good question. Pundits are wondering whether Musk, who helms both SpaceX and Tesla and has plenty of financial investments in China, should be let in on state secrets about how the US might fight a hypothetical war with China. Should Beijing get wind of the plans, it would help China prepare, giving it the advantage.
But, on the other hand ... the man who’s driving bids to reduce the federal deficit may need to know how much money is required to keep American war-fighting capabilities afloat. The White House has noted that Musk would recuse himself in the case of such conflicts of interest.
We’ll be keeping an eye on Musk’s visit and any fallout.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth arrives for his first official day at the Pentagon in Arlington, on Jan. 27, 2025.
HARD NUMBERS: Trump looks to lasers, US economy grows, Americans cool on Canadian annexation idea, Canadian researchers feel the freeze
60: The US is going back to the future with Donald Trump’s call this week to develop a system of space lasers to protect the country from nuclear attack. Under the “Iron Dome for America” plan, Trump has given Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth 60 days to develop a plan, which is to include the use of defensive space lasers – a revival of former US President Ronald Reagan’s vision of Star Wars.
2.3: The US economy showed strong growth at the end of 2024, expanding by 2.3% in the last quarter of the year. For the full year, the world’s largest economy grew 2.5%, exceeding most expert’s expectations. China, the world’s second-largest economy, grew at an official rate of 5%, though experts dispute those statistics. US President Donald Trump has promised a “golden age” for the US, but the economic impact of his proposed tariffs and massive federal budget/staffing cuts remains unclear.
16: Good news for Canada – only 16% of Americans support Donald Trump’s suggestion of annexing Canada, according to an exclusive poll by Echelon Polling, commissioned by GZERO Media. Meanwhile, 23% of respondents supported retaking control of the Panama Canal and acquiring Greenland.
40 million: The whiplashing moves of theTrump administration regarding federal funding for healthcare research (apparently frozen for review until at least Feb. 1) alongside a broader freeze on all federal grants, which was then rescinded, have rippled far and wide. Canadian researchers, who received more than US$40 million in support from the US, are now mired in uncertainty about the future of their work.
Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump's nominee to be secretary of defense, gestures as he leaves a Senate Committee on Armed Services confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, on Jan. 14, 2025.
The fight over Trump’s cabinet picks begins
Hegseth faced questions from Democrats on his history of opposing women in the military, allegations of misconduct, and his ability to lead a department of three million employees and the largest military in the world. But Republicans seemed satisfied with his responses about sexual assault prevention and enthused by his belief that the Pentagon should be audited. They also hailed his promise to strengthen the military. With Republicans in control of the chamber, Hegseth will likely be confirmed when the Senate votes on Friday.
Why is he controversial? The former “Fox & Friends” commentator has been accused of sexual assault and excessive drinking in the workplace, but he has denied all wrongdoing, saying that he is the victim of a “smear campaign.”
What are the chances all of Trump’s picks get through? While most are likely to be approved, the fates of Kash Patel, Trump’s FBI pick, and Tulsi Gabbard, his nominee for director of national intelligence, are rocky.
“For Gabbard, the problem lies in selling Republican senators on a nominee who was a Democrat up until very recently and who has been on the other side of several crucial issues around intelligence collection,” says Eurasia Group’s US expert Clayton Allen.
Meanwhile, Patel, who is a right-wing commentator who has made negative statements about the FBI in the past, “appears to be struggling to explain what his plans for the FBI are, a point that makes it harder for members to look past his more extreme political views.”